Rural Futures with Dr. Connie Episode 8 Featuring Andy Hines

Rural Futures Institute Author

07/17/2018 Added

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[00:00:00.510]Hi, it's Kaitlin,
[00:00:01.640]producer of the Rural Futures podcast.
[00:00:04.480]Subscribe where you listen so you don't miss an episode.
[00:00:07.080]And follow us on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter
[00:00:09.730]at Rural Futures.
[00:00:11.040]Thanks for listening.
[00:00:13.443]Y'know having that sense of how we would like
[00:00:15.440]our journey to go and then when we bring
[00:00:17.383]a sense of purpose and vision to our organizations
[00:00:19.810]that's gold for the organization, right?
[00:00:22.040]Having a bunch of folks who have a sense of
[00:00:25.520]what they wanna do, where they wanna go,
[00:00:27.226]I mean gimme a group like that
[00:00:28.320]and I think we can conquer the world.
[00:00:34.270]Rural Futures.
[00:00:35.710]The podcast where we connect thought leaders
[00:00:38.190]and doers at the intersection of technology
[00:00:41.140]and what it means to be human.
[00:00:42.910]Every episode we talk with entrepreneurs,
[00:00:45.470]researchers, and achievers
[00:00:47.330]to create impact for generations to come.
[00:00:50.098]And now, here's Dr. Connie.
[00:00:53.760]Hi, I'm Dr. Connie,
[00:00:55.490]your host of the Rural Futures podcast.
[00:00:57.760]And joining me today for conversation
[00:00:59.840]is Dr. Andy Hines.
[00:01:01.252]He's assistant professor and program coordinator
[00:01:04.410]for the University of Houston's Graduate program
[00:01:06.580]in foresight.
[00:01:07.800]And is also speaking, work shopping, and consulting
[00:01:10.820]through his firm, Hindsight.
[00:01:12.420]Which I think is a clever name, Andy.
[00:01:14.156]That I mean that was pretty darn good.
[00:01:17.040]His 25 plus years of professional futuristic
[00:01:19.790]experience includes a decades experience
[00:01:22.060]working inside first the Kellogg company
[00:01:24.210]and later, Dow Chemical.
[00:01:25.960]And consulting work with Coats and (mumbles).
[00:01:28.386]And social technology's Innaborro.
[00:01:30.831]Okay Andy, so that's a little intro about you,
[00:01:34.300]tell us a little bit more about who Dr. Andy Hines is.
[00:01:37.850]Well first of all, thanks for giving me the opportunity
[00:01:40.010]to talk about the future, that's always a lot of fun for me.
[00:01:43.890]For my background, basically I've worked in
[00:01:46.578]different aspects of introducing people to the future.
[00:01:51.193]Saying look, there's a way that we can think about
[00:01:54.500]a plan for what we're gonna prepare for,
[00:01:56.160]influence our future in a more systematic way.
[00:01:59.767]With a few simple tools and concepts.
[00:02:02.530]And so I've looked for different venues
[00:02:04.650]and opportunities and ways not only to introduce people
[00:02:08.030]to the future, but then to help them actually
[00:02:10.610]do something about it.
[00:02:12.157]One of the benefits of working in different spots,
[00:02:15.240]different organizations and with different kinds of folks
[00:02:17.971]is you get a sense, oh, y'know how does that
[00:02:21.370]effective translation take place?
[00:02:24.050]How do we translate the future into something
[00:02:26.850]that we can do about it today?
[00:02:28.920]Well and you do that through a lot of
[00:02:30.450]different avenues, just like your bio said.
[00:02:32.280]I mean obviously consulting,
[00:02:33.682]but also teaching, a lot of writing
[00:02:36.779]and really prolific in this space
[00:02:39.080]in terms of being a futurist.
[00:02:40.353]And really helping others develop
[00:02:42.907]this sort of strategic foresight ability
[00:02:47.550]that we now know leaders need, in this day and age.
[00:02:50.880]So could you define for our audience,
[00:02:52.901]strategic foresight and future-ing?
[00:02:55.570]To help them understand the lens you approach this through.
[00:02:59.070]Well, the simplest way to think about it
[00:03:00.915]is I started out as a history undergrad
[00:03:04.056]and we have all these tools and approaches for
[00:03:06.730]studying the past,
[00:03:08.010]and I said well why can't we do the same thing
[00:03:10.470]for the future?
[00:03:11.303]And there is a lot we can learn from history,
[00:03:13.633]that at the same time part of what we're trying to
[00:03:16.440]understand when we look to the future
[00:03:18.200]is not necessarily continuity and patterns,
[00:03:21.160]that's part of it.
[00:03:22.031]But where are the disruptions?
[00:03:24.579]Major surprises that might influence the future.
[00:03:28.600]One of the things that we've learned
[00:03:29.690]is that most people have a view of the future
[00:03:31.690]that y'know tomorrow's gonna be much like today,
[00:03:34.651]and don't really want to think about the potential
[00:03:39.510]surprises and that's kind of where the futurists come in.
[00:03:42.400]We are pretty good at identifying
[00:03:44.020]those potential disruptors.
[00:03:45.608]Absolutely, what do you see as some of those surprises
[00:03:49.220]right now that maybe other people are not seeing?
[00:03:52.771]One of the ways I think that foresight has changed
[00:03:55.420]is now there's so much information out there
[00:03:58.490]about not only the present, but the future as well.
[00:04:00.864]It's a little bit less about,
[00:04:02.580]we call it finding the hidden gem,
[00:04:04.600]I mean somebody has probably found it,
[00:04:06.430]somebody has probably written about it,
[00:04:08.004]and so a lot of what we do now
[00:04:10.110]is kinda sift through
[00:04:11.256]and synthesize that world of information
[00:04:14.000]and try to come up with what we think are those
[00:04:16.070]major themes, so and certainly artificial intelligence
[00:04:19.669]is one that again, it's a really big deal
[00:04:22.137]the impact of automation on jobs, it's a big deal.
[00:04:25.680]A lot of people are talkin' about.
[00:04:27.212]Even we have automated vehicles,
[00:04:29.610]so there's a lot of interesting technologies
[00:04:31.840]that are coming and part of our job
[00:04:33.840]is to kind of help translate that,
[00:04:35.343]like what does that mean for what we should do?
[00:04:38.180]In our job.
[00:04:39.260]Well what I appreciate about being a futurist is,
[00:04:42.142]a lot of people are talking about technology
[00:04:44.860]and some of those disruptive technologies,
[00:04:46.912]but I happen to know from our pre-convo
[00:04:50.200]that y'know we're also looking at the people's side
[00:04:52.893]of future-ing.
[00:04:53.990]What does it mean to live with more purpose?
[00:04:56.840]What does it mean to and want to frame your own future?
[00:05:01.567]As an individual.
[00:05:03.122]And how does that shape the future itself,
[00:05:06.470]in terms of technology now enabling people to
[00:05:09.650]live where they wanna live, create the life that they want,
[00:05:12.664]and not just working in a job anymore, forever.
[00:05:16.660]But, really creating this life of purpose.
[00:05:19.606]So what're you finding around this whole concept
[00:05:23.440]of these Winnebago Warriors?
[00:05:26.103](laughing) I think is the term.
[00:05:28.430]You used in our pre-convo, tell us a little bit
[00:05:30.880]more what you're finding in some,
[00:05:32.330]these population patterns.
[00:05:34.220]Yeah, sure, so first thing is,
[00:05:35.858]I've looked at technology a lot for the last 30 years
[00:05:39.810]and there is a graveyard of really cool, innovative
[00:05:43.660]technology concepts that failed to kind of
[00:05:47.190]pass the we'll call it the people test.
[00:05:49.276]That is ultimately a technology has to be used by people
[00:05:53.240]in order to kind of survive, right?
[00:05:55.322]So, if you're a technology innovator,
[00:05:57.720]you ignore people at your own peril,
[00:05:59.660]so it's really the interplay of how does technology
[00:06:03.191]meet a social or people need?
[00:06:06.620]And those two things have to come together.
[00:06:08.731]And as we explore the future, one might argue
[00:06:12.550]that it's actually that people social needs
[00:06:14.900]that are actually the more compelling and interesting.
[00:06:18.320]You talk about automating jobs,
[00:06:20.110]there's less need for people to do jobs.
[00:06:21.870]So what are we gonna do, you brought up a good point,
[00:06:24.430]that it sort of causes us to reflect on
[00:06:27.181]what is our purpose?
[00:06:28.920]Right.
[00:06:29.753]Now for many, almost centuries now,
[00:06:32.255]our purpose has been to work.
[00:06:34.420]And we say, this is a pretty extraordinary change
[00:06:37.460]that we're living through, as we start to question
[00:06:39.870]that may not need to be our primary purpose anymore.
[00:06:43.299]And so, you combine that with some technologies that say,
[00:06:47.432]many of us can work from wherever we want.
[00:06:50.470]Using technology much like we're using here today.
[00:06:53.380]For me to be in the same room with you virtually
[00:06:55.560]from Houston, so then this is if we can work from
[00:06:59.170]wherever we want, where do we choose to live?
[00:07:01.690]Doesn't have to necessarily be close to our job anymore.
[00:07:04.723]And we look for a kinda weak signals of change
[00:07:07.740]and one of those that we've found,
[00:07:09.580]we call them the Winnebago Warriors,
[00:07:11.488]and it's this some people have said,
[00:07:13.240]well why settle anywhere at all?
[00:07:15.610]Let's go to where we want,
[00:07:17.100]let's spend some time in different parts of the country,
[00:07:19.470]get to know different cultures
[00:07:21.130]and we don't need those permanent routes.
[00:07:24.593]Well and let's just, yeah, create this life experience
[00:07:28.450]we'll make a little money along the way,
[00:07:30.000]we're gonna figure that out,
[00:07:31.200]but now that we can be completely mobile
[00:07:32.726]why buy a home?
[00:07:34.260]Is that now the American Dream, anymore?
[00:07:37.220]So own a home with a picket fence
[00:07:38.960]and two point five kids and a dog.
[00:07:40.587]Or is it, y'know what?
[00:07:42.566]I just wanna go do some really cool stuff
[00:07:44.703](laughing) and create this experience
[00:07:48.380]that really calls me.
[00:07:50.213]And find my purpose differently,
[00:07:52.290]because we know that through research purpose,
[00:07:55.100]adds about seven years to people's lives.
[00:07:57.229]But we also know in the US,
[00:07:59.150]after people retire they tend to
[00:08:01.315]have health challenges or even we lose them,
[00:08:05.230]because they've lost their sense of purpose
[00:08:07.060]because it's been so tied to their job.
[00:08:09.427]How do you see some of that flowing in terms of
[00:08:12.485]what it means for people, but also locations?
[00:08:15.620]We talk about this a lot with the Rural Future.
[00:08:17.700]Like, could this be a positive thing
[00:08:20.580]for the Rural Future?
[00:08:21.490]If we have people that are connected
[00:08:23.193]or do we have to kind of even rethink that
[00:08:26.400]a little bit, to make sure people can create
[00:08:28.200]that life in those rural communities?
[00:08:30.190]Yes, I think one of the really interesting
[00:08:32.926]strategic questions will start with the rural area,
[00:08:36.700]but it's also true of urban,
[00:08:37.930]is historically or even recently one of the big factors
[00:08:41.750]is, can we get Amazon to put a headquarters
[00:08:44.780]or put a branch in our area
[00:08:46.422]and y'know what do we have to give away
[00:08:48.960]to get the big company to come and provide its jobs.
[00:08:51.940]Like, that's been a lot of focus of economic development
[00:08:56.460]rural and urban.
[00:08:57.616]And again, if we believe this trend towards automation
[00:09:03.110]and less reliance on work,
[00:09:05.579]it sort of creates a different set of criteria
[00:09:08.840]for what's the identity of our community?
[00:09:10.790]Not only ourselves, right?
[00:09:12.320]The more progressive schools are helping children
[00:09:14.880]think about, it's gonna be a multiple career world
[00:09:18.400]and really think through what are the skill sets,
[00:09:20.540]what do I want to do, like preparing individuals
[00:09:23.970]for many changes.
[00:09:25.524]And I think it may be a community can think of itself
[00:09:28.040]the same way, like what's our identity
[00:09:30.206]what do we want to be known for
[00:09:32.440]and recognize and that too, may change over time.
[00:09:35.943]Can we develop a robust sense of community
[00:09:39.290]that can evolve along with the changing times?
[00:09:42.530]So the quick example we talked a little bit yesterday
[00:09:45.356]easy one to think about,
[00:09:47.340]let's look at what happened in Detroit, right?
[00:09:49.750]Along with a lot of the other declining industrial cities,
[00:09:53.870]who have gone through a major identity crisis
[00:09:56.899]and are now trying to rethink, who should we be?
[00:10:00.509]How do we get people to come back
[00:10:02.690]and what people do we want to come back?
[00:10:04.538]And I think that kind of a process of thinking through
[00:10:07.410]who we are, who we want to be, is really the right one
[00:10:10.460]and not just assume it's we wanna be the site of a major
[00:10:14.930]big company, so we can have jobs.
[00:10:17.690]May not be who we are.
[00:10:19.290]I think communities themselves also need a purpose now.
[00:10:22.355]So, what's your purpose for being and existing
[00:10:25.159]we say that about companies, we say that about people,
[00:10:28.010]but also translates into communities,
[00:10:30.730]because like you just said,
[00:10:32.270]how do you want people to experience living here?
[00:10:34.960]Why would they wanna choose this?
[00:10:36.911]Do we also need to rethink about
[00:10:38.949]maybe people will only be here a short time.
[00:10:41.540]And maybe then they wanna go have another experience, right?
[00:10:44.160]And so, it may not be a lifelong let's have everybody
[00:10:48.130]live here for 40, 50 years.
[00:10:49.623]Maybe we should be building more RV parks,
[00:10:51.885]instead of homes. (laughing)
[00:10:54.170]That's such a great idea.
[00:10:55.549](laughing)
[00:10:56.406]That's such a great idea,
[00:10:57.239]one of the things that I've been talkin' about publicly
[00:10:59.288]about millennials, which I'm kinda sick of talking about
[00:11:02.480]millennials, but you kinda have to do it, right?
[00:11:04.730]Is that they don't wanna stay at the same job
[00:11:08.160]for 20 years and work their way up the ladder.
[00:11:10.231]I brought up the idea, well why not make sort of a deal
[00:11:14.090]that says look, you come work for us for three to five years
[00:11:16.444]go outside, go somewhere else, get the experience you want,
[00:11:21.450]stay in touch, and maybe you can come back in 15 or 20 years
[00:11:25.560]when you're ready and then you can become our leader,
[00:11:28.290]so have a strategy that says,
[00:11:30.210]we know you want to go out there,
[00:11:31.801]instead of fighting that, let's enable it.
[00:11:34.470]Now could a community do the same thing?
[00:11:36.530]Like, yeah, could we have a piece of our community
[00:11:39.420]that acknowledges, not everybody wants to stay in one place
[00:11:42.360]forever, but y'know we'll keep the lights on
[00:11:45.048]while you go somewhere else
[00:11:46.552]and you're always welcome to come back.
[00:11:48.505]Absolutely.
[00:11:49.338]It's not a failure if we haven't kept somebody
[00:11:52.180]in the same space for 20 years.
[00:11:53.830]So I think I love that idea of stop by and come on back.
[00:11:57.954]Well and we all learn when we go have different,
[00:12:00.930]new experiences, right?
[00:12:01.997]And so, we can bring such a richness back to those companies
[00:12:05.220]like that model you're talking about,
[00:12:06.900]or even those communities.
[00:12:08.456]It takes a different frame of mind,
[00:12:11.680]but also leadership skills that are very growth oriented
[00:12:15.930]and different as well.
[00:12:17.146]And I'm a proud alum of your program in Houston,
[00:12:21.270]your certification for strategic foresight.
[00:12:23.186]And that's where we met and I was just so impressed
[00:12:26.900]by all these companies that are there,
[00:12:29.710]trying to really think about
[00:12:31.560]what the future needs to look like.
[00:12:32.847]And I also always have to add I was the only person
[00:12:35.300]from a university there at the time,
[00:12:36.820]so I'm hoping more universities get on board with
[00:12:39.430]what you're doing down there,
[00:12:40.580]because I think it's so critical.
[00:12:41.978]The other part you really touch a lot on
[00:12:44.730]is leadership.
[00:12:45.563]And the importance of not only having this plan
[00:12:48.550]and being able to put this sort of framework together
[00:12:52.140]about the future, but also leading that.
[00:12:54.436]Would you tell us a little bit more about
[00:12:57.053]leadership now and how you see that evolving in the future?
[00:13:00.630]To make these types of things happen.
[00:13:02.805]Yeah, we think that the combination of foresight
[00:13:06.000]and leadership makes a whole lotta sense.
[00:13:07.840]If you think about what does a leader really all about?
[00:13:10.640]A leader is about bringing people into a future
[00:13:14.280]that is typically a little bit different, right?
[00:13:16.710]I mean, the real challenge of leadership
[00:13:18.865]is persuading people to come on a journey
[00:13:21.784]that involves change.
[00:13:23.740]And we have said,
[00:13:24.806]right when people join us for the first day,
[00:13:27.330]we say, look you are going to experience resistance
[00:13:29.640]to change, because it is a natural human phenomenon.
[00:13:32.840]Let's have five minutes of complaining about it right now
[00:13:35.950]and then let's just stop it, right.
[00:13:37.860]I mean, 'cause complaining about people resisting change
[00:13:40.540]is it's complaining about the sun going up and down,
[00:13:44.020]I mean that's the way it is.
[00:13:45.433]So we do spend a lot of time thinking about
[00:13:49.450]how can we embrace it, work with it,
[00:13:51.677]and sort of bring it on our side so to speak.
[00:13:53.940]And that's really what a leader has to do.
[00:13:56.260]How do I get people to change?
[00:13:58.028]And make that case to them in a way that
[00:14:00.350]seems favorable to them, right?
[00:14:02.987]And so I think that's a lot of what we do
[00:14:05.135]is try to paint the picture of how the future
[00:14:07.700]could be better, here's what the path looks like,
[00:14:10.290]so we try to make the future not a scary, unknown place.
[00:14:14.420]But, we shed some light on it.
[00:14:15.930]Say here are the possibilities,
[00:14:17.280]here's what it looks like,
[00:14:18.460]it's not that scary, come on the journey with us.
[00:14:20.793]I think that's a lot of what foresight can bring
[00:14:23.870]to the leadership, is really some tools to help leaders
[00:14:26.870]do the difficult job of bringing people into
[00:14:29.920]a different future.
[00:14:30.852]And speaking of those tools,
[00:14:32.968]what are some practical tools that you help
[00:14:37.620]leaders understand that they can use to
[00:14:39.546]kind of frame up the desired futures
[00:14:42.041]and those different scenarios that they might
[00:14:44.570]wanna think about in more detail?
[00:14:46.880]And really choose to pursue,
[00:14:48.440]once they have a better understanding of what's possible.
[00:14:50.852]Sure, I think the fundamental concept that we
[00:14:53.906]talk about is, the idea that the future consists of multiple
[00:14:58.010]possibilities, that we just call it alternative futures.
[00:15:00.691]That is, even though we may be able to someday
[00:15:04.110]plug all the data in the world, all the variables
[00:15:06.860]into this huge super brain and hopefully
[00:15:09.440]press the button and out comes the answer,
[00:15:11.279]our view of that is that there are just too many factors
[00:15:15.090]to get the future right.
[00:15:16.590]But what we can do is, talk about the major kinda plot lines
[00:15:21.850]or stories about how the future could be different.
[00:15:24.260]And that we've proven over time we can do.
[00:15:27.050]We may not know which, exactly which one's gonna play out
[00:15:29.820]or exactly how it's gonna look.
[00:15:31.475]We can definitely provide organizations with a preview
[00:15:35.970]of what the future might look like,
[00:15:37.790]such that as it arises that you start to see
[00:15:40.390]that future merging, you're not surprised.
[00:15:42.754]We say the worst thing that can happen
[00:15:45.247]regarding the future is when you're caught unprepared.
[00:15:48.540]You hadn't seen it coming, we were blindsided,
[00:15:51.203]just that's disaster, right?
[00:15:53.126]The idea of alternative futures is saying like,
[00:15:55.900]we want you to be ready, agile, prepared to respond,
[00:15:59.460]if you will, no matter how the future emerges.
[00:16:01.680]I think that would be one key tool
[00:16:03.350]that we think is important.
[00:16:04.988](light music)
[00:16:07.060]Let me put it this way, I think we create this line
[00:16:10.070]that there's leaders and followers
[00:16:11.690]and I think the mega trend in that space
[00:16:13.870]is the blurring of the leader, follower line
[00:16:16.720]that we may be leading one moment
[00:16:18.545]and following the next.
[00:16:20.100]And kind of shifting or passing around that leadership
[00:16:24.040]role is really I think where we're heading.
[00:16:26.616]And that does require that one is out in the field
[00:16:30.670]doing things and experiencing,
[00:16:32.325]if I'm trying to lead a group of people
[00:16:34.270]to a certain place, do I really understand
[00:16:36.368]what they're going through?
[00:16:37.900]Do I know what their daily life is about?
[00:16:41.310]And can I experience that and really be a more effective
[00:16:44.400]leader from that perspective?
[00:16:45.690]So I'm not somewhere up in a hill, thinking big thoughts.
[00:16:48.408]I'm right in amongst the daily hub bub,
[00:16:52.222]kind of coming at it from that perspective.
[00:16:54.730]So I think that's one of the changes that we might see
[00:16:57.590]coming in the leadership space.
[00:16:59.544]Agreed, I mean I think, a lot of leadership
[00:17:02.210]was developed in that industrial age as well.
[00:17:04.370]And so, it's now an area that needs some
[00:17:07.369]fresh disruption itself.
[00:17:09.333]So I even have to question sometimes this whole idea,
[00:17:12.130]why would I want somebody else to lead me? (laughing)
[00:17:14.000]I mean, why would I want that?
[00:17:16.818]I mean I think if I'm really wanting to develop
[00:17:19.250]my own personal future, which I would hope
[00:17:21.470]more people would want, to take control of,
[00:17:24.396]I really have to question that whole concept
[00:17:27.386]of leadership and the way that you're talking about it.
[00:17:30.610]That traditional context, just seeing.
[00:17:31.960]And I like to talk a lot about
[00:17:34.330]developing your own inner leader.
[00:17:35.642]Your self leadership, as well.
[00:17:37.838]And working in these sort of networks
[00:17:41.000]and working very differently,
[00:17:42.373]I think for people to want to live their life
[00:17:45.740]in a different way, much like we've talked about,
[00:17:47.663]how do we get away from still the more traditional
[00:17:51.280]command and control style?
[00:17:52.470]Which is still very prevalent.
[00:17:53.781]And be okay with people in their independence.
[00:17:57.530]And the way that they wanna live.
[00:17:59.117]And create these new models for the future.
[00:18:01.795]It's interesting in doing project work,
[00:18:04.810]especially with larger organizations
[00:18:06.710]and it can be private, as well as public,
[00:18:08.690]government agencies or education
[00:18:10.770]if they were involved, but they're not, right?
[00:18:13.100]A lot of times, well you know, we can get this
[00:18:15.810]senior leadership if we can get them on board
[00:18:18.550]and we can get them involved and I agree that
[00:18:20.730]there is a point for that, but my experience
[00:18:23.250]is most of the work of change,
[00:18:25.540]the actual work of changing an organization
[00:18:28.040]doesn't come from the top.
[00:18:29.228]It comes from somewhere between the middle and top, right.
[00:18:33.020]That's the group that we need to be targeting.
[00:18:35.420]Who is actually going to lead the charge in real life?
[00:18:39.070]Like, who's actually gonna implement this stuff?
[00:18:40.837]And I would much rather work with the implementers,
[00:18:43.991]the doers who are going to actually have to do it,
[00:18:47.219]and I'm not trying to knock senior leadership,
[00:18:49.810]but I mean, I think we have this almost this worship
[00:18:52.060]of you need to get the leaders onboard
[00:18:54.260]and a lot of times the leaders, they may set direction,
[00:18:57.680]and they may less, but they're not actually doing it.
[00:19:00.900]Right.
[00:19:01.733]My own bias is to get with those leaders
[00:19:04.040]who are out in the field making the future happen,
[00:19:06.920]whether it's an entrepreneur from the outside
[00:19:09.100]or it's an intrapreneur from the inside.
[00:19:10.884]I think we can translate our foresight tools
[00:19:14.140]and say, all right, let's do this.
[00:19:15.530]And then in a sense you present the (foreign language)
[00:19:19.250]to leadership.
[00:19:20.430]Like, we've not just talked about it,
[00:19:22.230]we've actually created this future.
[00:19:24.020]Here's what it looks like.
[00:19:24.950]Here's how we do it.
[00:19:25.806]Forgiveness rather than permission kind of approach.
[00:19:29.300]Let's not worry about whether every single senior leader's
[00:19:32.420]on board, let's get enough support that we need
[00:19:34.910]and let's go make the future happen and show 'em.
[00:19:37.637]Well and that's what we love to say about the
[00:19:40.070]Rural Future's podcast, is it's for doers.
[00:19:42.223]It's for doers, just people out there
[00:19:44.224]bein' a maverick in some ways
[00:19:46.560]and creating the future, that one day at a time.
[00:19:49.430]But, really looking to create the future
[00:19:52.110]that they want and that they see is possible.
[00:19:54.629](light music)
[00:19:57.440]As we've talked about strategic foresight
[00:20:00.060]and future-ing, and as I've told you,
[00:20:01.960]I use a lot of your material for citations. (laughing)
[00:20:05.130]Because you have this great content,
[00:20:07.083]that really substantiates strategic foresight
[00:20:09.820]and future-ing, as a discipline.
[00:20:12.360]One lady thought I actually was looking at the stars
[00:20:15.590]trying to (laughing) figure this out.
[00:20:18.560]I'm like, no, nope, there's actually tools
[00:20:21.140]and there's strategies that we use,
[00:20:23.657]but you know this whole mix of methodology
[00:20:26.179]and mindset, I think is something too that
[00:20:29.218]in your materials comes out very clearly, I think.
[00:20:32.227]And a lot of prolific futurists really talk about,
[00:20:35.649]so blending that mindset and methodology,
[00:20:39.390]I think is such an important part of that.
[00:20:41.290]I know you have this huge network of alumni now,
[00:20:44.425]that have graduated from your program.
[00:20:46.612]What do you see your alumni doing as a result of
[00:20:50.260]work you're doing at Houston?
[00:20:51.620]And also, in your consulting practice?
[00:20:54.024]Yeah, I think one of the other key tools
[00:20:55.873]that kind of informs what people do with our work
[00:20:59.040]is we spend a lot of time sensitizing people
[00:21:01.874]about how do you recognize a signal of change?
[00:21:06.150]So we call it horizon scanning, but.
[00:21:08.016]Right.
[00:21:08.849]One of the things that all of us do
[00:21:10.130]is we're always on the lookout for something
[00:21:12.300]that makes us go, hmm.
[00:21:13.680]And if you find yourself when you're looking over
[00:21:15.730]however you get your daily information feed
[00:21:17.948]and you kinda go hmm.
[00:21:19.990]Like, we pay strict attention.
[00:21:21.570]So, we really have a method of
[00:21:23.160]doing that more systematically,
[00:21:24.750]but that's the kinda thing we look for.
[00:21:26.350]When you see kind of a break in the pattern
[00:21:28.420]that makes us kinda give that funny head hmm.
[00:21:31.200]And make that funny sound, we go ah-ha,
[00:21:33.750]something has challenged our way of thinking
[00:21:36.729]and we need to make note of that.
[00:21:39.279]So a lot of what futurists do, our alums do,
[00:21:42.550]in the real world,
[00:21:43.800]once they're outside of our academic program,
[00:21:46.180]is work in very much the typical organizations
[00:21:49.000]that I'm sure many of your listeners are in.
[00:21:51.070]Inside a large organization, we often have little units
[00:21:54.700]of folks that are really trying to stimulate
[00:21:57.560]a whole organization to think about the future.
[00:21:59.890]So, for instance we're working with the consumer products
[00:22:02.890]company right now that's looking at the future of waste.
[00:22:05.280]What're we gonna do with all that trash?
[00:22:07.609]The landfills are closing down, they're filling up.
[00:22:11.071]Recycling is a little bit in trouble,
[00:22:14.370]because we can't figure out how to make it economical.
[00:22:16.730]So what futurists do is we really try to think ahead
[00:22:20.450]to the future kind of problems and issues
[00:22:23.080]and say, look, now's the time for us to think about
[00:22:25.800]this issue, where we have some, we have some wiggle room.
[00:22:28.740]We have some space to act.
[00:22:30.224]You don't want to wait until the last landfills close
[00:22:33.680]to think about where we're gonna put all this stuff.
[00:22:35.676]Yeah, I mean, and do you think about the prolific
[00:22:38.600]growth of online shopping and delivery,
[00:22:40.870]and all the waste that creates,
[00:22:42.660]it's just a totally different concept
[00:22:45.419]of how do we make this more sustainable over time?
[00:22:48.667]I don't see that slowing down.
[00:22:50.432]What are the changes we need to make as a society
[00:22:53.840]to still support, especially as jobs go away, Andy,
[00:22:57.710]as we see this decrease in jobs
[00:22:59.870]people still like to buy stuff and use stuff.
[00:23:02.779]How does this whole economic model change?
[00:23:05.323]How do consumer patterns and behavior change?
[00:23:08.410]And how do we bring that to the forefront
[00:23:10.712]to create those preferred futures?
[00:23:12.799]That affect communities, businesses, and people.
[00:23:15.512]Yeah, I mean we should scare people
[00:23:17.930]that jobs are goin' away,
[00:23:19.010]I remember I was talkin' about this with my daughter
[00:23:21.350]who's going first year freshman,
[00:23:23.220]she's like, I don't know what to think.
[00:23:24.740]Look, we've got time,
[00:23:25.718]kinda the change that we're talking about,
[00:23:28.270]where work becomes sort of less central
[00:23:30.500]to our identity.
[00:23:31.333]I mean, this is a decades long, this is a big process.
[00:23:34.050]It's not gonna change overnight.
[00:23:35.576]Another thing that we've learned,
[00:23:37.410]even though we hear a lot about super rapid change
[00:23:40.500]again is that people will tend to slow that down.
[00:23:43.858]Even though, yes, we could automate all the jobs
[00:23:46.440]we won't, right away, right?
[00:23:48.110]We have to integrate that into social policy,
[00:23:51.050]so even though we can see the end point,
[00:23:53.428]we know it may take a little longer
[00:23:55.660]than you think to get there.
[00:23:56.920]So, people are still at the center of this.
[00:23:58.920]So I'm actually working on a book called
[00:24:01.140]After Capitalism and it's tryin' to look at
[00:24:03.627]the longer term future.
[00:24:05.400]Now keep in mind it's definitely the longer term future
[00:24:07.850]of what does a world look like where we don't hafta
[00:24:10.840]go to work every day?
[00:24:12.311]Now the good news is, we're still gonna be
[00:24:14.197]as wealthy and maybe even wealthier than ever before.
[00:24:17.498]I'm so excited about your book.
[00:24:19.390]I mean, I think this'll be great to see a long term view
[00:24:22.397]on some of this and like we've discussed,
[00:24:25.450]people don't think you're a little out there,
[00:24:27.350]you're probably not doing this right.
[00:24:29.032](laughing) So, I know you'll have some really good stuff
[00:24:32.410]for us to all start thinking about.
[00:24:33.904]And I think the sky is falling.
[00:24:36.550]Is sometimes where this whole idea of futuring
[00:24:38.750]gets a little stuck.
[00:24:39.619]And that no, not everybody is gonna see their elimination
[00:24:42.700]of their jobs.
[00:24:43.533]Many times you're really paying attention
[00:24:45.620]or if you're talking to futurists,
[00:24:47.120]you can see these patterns emerging over time.
[00:24:49.519]These wild cards happen, but usually they're not as sudden
[00:24:52.960]as people think, like you said.
[00:24:54.526]And new jobs'll be created.
[00:24:56.510]New industries will be created.
[00:24:58.180]So, it's not like the sky is falling,
[00:25:00.230]but also when I think about my grandparents generation
[00:25:03.570]and my parents generation, now ours.
[00:25:05.756]And specifically I guess I can refer to
[00:25:09.330]this in the United States, it's amazing to see
[00:25:12.360]how well we live but still sort of take
[00:25:15.610]almost a negative view of that.
[00:25:17.982]Oh my God, I won't be able to work anymore.
[00:25:21.020]What a horrible future, right.
[00:25:22.520]I mean, it depends on how you view it, right.
[00:25:24.952]Obviously it's viewed as a problem,
[00:25:27.090]because it's our income is tied to it.
[00:25:29.056]But if we could deal with that part of the problem,
[00:25:31.643]I don't think a lot of the folks would think,
[00:25:33.727]boy if I don't get to that factory today
[00:25:35.980]I am gonna be so upset, right.
[00:25:37.690]I mean, you were talking about mindset,
[00:25:39.469]so as futurists we've learned to kind see both sides of it.
[00:25:43.502]And that's part of what we have to help people with.
[00:25:45.880]To see that the future isn't either all bad or all good.
[00:25:49.494]It's a really kind of a complex mix.
[00:25:52.159]And we try to kind of shed some light
[00:25:54.890]on those possibilities.
[00:25:56.220]And say which ones do we want?
[00:25:57.540]Which ones do we want to avoid?
[00:25:58.948]Well and that's what we really been trying to do here,
[00:26:01.230]because a lot of times at Rural we hear
[00:26:02.970]and I'm not discounting the challenges of rural,
[00:26:05.840]because they're many and they are great.
[00:26:08.193]But we have to learn to find the opportunity
[00:26:10.702]within that as well.
[00:26:12.397]And really have I think those conversations
[00:26:15.630]around what is possible here.
[00:26:17.118]It's not gonna be what it was,
[00:26:19.401]but what do we want it to be?
[00:26:21.350]And so, I think those are the conversations
[00:26:24.074]that we can continue to have
[00:26:25.759]and I think people like yourself add a new lens
[00:26:28.940]to this, I mean even what you brought up
[00:26:30.370]about Detroit, I also have to learn that it's not just
[00:26:33.870]rural points or challenges, it's not just urban,
[00:26:36.096]but there's this intersection of rural and urban
[00:26:38.558]where we could lift all tides, all boats together
[00:26:41.662]if we really had some strategy around that.
[00:26:44.220]And some foresight.
[00:26:45.270]To think about the possibilities.
[00:26:46.863]Absolutely and I think that sort of
[00:26:49.301]reframing is kind of a good way to think about the mindset
[00:26:53.380]that a lot of what futurists train folks to do
[00:26:55.950]is to look at a situation and come at it
[00:26:58.680]with a different perspective, right.
[00:27:00.107]Can we reframe this from
[00:27:02.270]oh, this looks like a horrible problem
[00:27:03.910]to see the possibilities and opportunities in it?
[00:27:07.400]Which doesn't mean it's easy.
[00:27:08.770]So we don't wanna minimize, oh, we can make every problem
[00:27:11.047]go away, but a lot of times we get stuck
[00:27:15.196]in a certain frame of how we look at things.
[00:27:18.250]Part of our job is to come in and kinda jog that frame
[00:27:21.780]and say hey, challenge the assumptions,
[00:27:23.740]challenge the model and say, can we think about this
[00:27:26.065]in a different way?
[00:27:27.220]Yeah, I so appreciate that process.
[00:27:29.283]I so appreciate futurists like yourself
[00:27:31.900]who are really I think expanding the field itself
[00:27:36.210]and adding that credibility,
[00:27:37.496]but also have that experience of helping companies
[00:27:41.592]and even communities think through this.
[00:27:44.310]And so, that marriage I think of what you do
[00:27:47.978]in your business world, y'know,
[00:27:50.010]you're an entrepreneur yourself
[00:27:51.147]and I think that's so incredibly important
[00:27:53.470]to have in our higher educations system,
[00:27:55.460]so I'd like to touch on that just a little bit.
[00:27:57.548]How do you see higher education evolving in the future?
[00:28:02.038]We did actually look at the future of higher education
[00:28:05.740]a couple years ago, from the perspective of the student.
[00:28:08.530]Which is kinda funny that it's noticeably
[00:28:11.480]absent perspective, most of the work on the future
[00:28:14.470]of higher education is from the institutional perspective.
[00:28:17.280]What does the institution need to do?
[00:28:19.174]So we thought it'd be fun to just kinda say,
[00:28:21.359]what are students likely to want from
[00:28:23.558]the institutions?
[00:28:24.914]And so I think there's always a small minority
[00:28:28.860]of institutions that are at the forefront of change.
[00:28:31.930]And they see it coming and they're doing what they can
[00:28:34.490]and usually there's a mass of any industry,
[00:28:38.100]higher education, doesn't matter what the industry is,
[00:28:40.800]as change comes at it will tend to hold on tighter
[00:28:44.580]to what got it in trouble in the first place.
[00:28:47.121]So, I think the mega trend in higher education
[00:28:51.564]is sort of opening up the possibilities of learning.
[00:28:54.950]Tearing down the walls of this is a classroom,
[00:28:58.110]this is a curriculum,
[00:28:59.034]and it's kinda saying, what do I need to learn
[00:29:02.232]and I don't need to be kind of confined by
[00:29:05.150]what's in the established curriculum, right?
[00:29:07.260]So that's this mega trend that's been sweeping across
[00:29:09.800]and part of the response of the established institutions
[00:29:15.140]say, oh let's make it harder to get in to school.
[00:29:18.130]Let's make the tests more rigorous.
[00:29:20.150]Let's do all the stuff that's made us
[00:29:22.670]great in the first place, right.
[00:29:24.176]It's what we've built our reputation on,
[00:29:26.710]so let's stick to our knitting even harder
[00:29:28.850]in the face of a change,
[00:29:29.847]except it's going in the other direction.
[00:29:31.700]So I think there's a lot of that going on.
[00:29:34.312]You start to see a lot of our sister and brother
[00:29:39.220]universities, other institutions double down
[00:29:42.410]on what they've always done.
[00:29:43.712]Maybe make it more rigorous,
[00:29:45.241]how do we add to this experience in the same way we've done.
[00:29:49.370]Like you're saying, rather than how do we disrupt ourselves.
[00:29:52.528]How do we think about that end user?
[00:29:55.700]And think about what they want and desire?
[00:29:58.960]You know we have an online high school,
[00:30:00.630]here at the University of Nebraska.
[00:30:02.630]Which is a great thing for us to have,
[00:30:05.010]because even with this whole population
[00:30:06.936]piece that we see all the shift,
[00:30:09.874]there's more of our people questioning even
[00:30:12.770]sending their kids to traditional elementary schools.
[00:30:15.130]Or high schools.
[00:30:15.963]Because if they're traveling if they're a Winnebago Warrior,
[00:30:19.139]they want their kids to learn what life can look like
[00:30:22.640]beyond the traditional norm and standard.
[00:30:26.180]And so how do we create this mobility,
[00:30:28.287]not just for adults, but for whole families in some ways.
[00:30:32.663]There is a really important role for,
[00:30:35.250]if you will, established traditional institutions
[00:30:38.140]to provide some kind of common core, right?
[00:30:41.380]So it's not that every organization needs to be
[00:30:43.550]entrepreneurial and different and experimental.
[00:30:45.522]But it's more like, what's my niche in the ecosystem?
[00:30:49.220]And we do need some organizations
[00:30:51.270]that are providing call it the stability and continuity
[00:30:54.269]to compliment the innovators who are around the edges
[00:30:58.630]of the ecosystem.
[00:30:59.600]So I think we could totally see a healthy
[00:31:02.786]kind of higher education ecosystem
[00:31:05.350]that has both, right, it has some established institutions
[00:31:08.360]providing that kind of core knowledge
[00:31:10.830]and it has the innovators around the edges,
[00:31:13.020]who are providing kind of the new and interesting
[00:31:15.950]and experimental stuff.
[00:31:16.783]And I think those things can co-exist.
[00:31:19.411]Gotta kinda acknowledge that first, right.
[00:31:22.750]It doesn't have to be one or the other, it's both.
[00:31:24.537]It's kind of finding your niche and your purpose again.
[00:31:26.996]Like, why do we need to exist?
[00:31:29.439](laughing)
[00:31:30.505]Here we are right, right back at purpose.
[00:31:33.350]That's right, very full circle.
[00:31:35.657]I've got a personal question,
[00:31:37.460]I would love to know from you Dr. Hines,
[00:31:39.538]how do you keep your futurist brain fresh?
[00:31:44.950]It certainly helps to have a group of
[00:31:47.535]really intelligent creative graduate students
[00:31:50.370]to have to teach. (chuckling)
[00:31:52.280]So I think that definitely, that keeps you goin'.
[00:31:56.510]One of the things that's really been fun for me
[00:31:58.330]in the last few years, is I've really,
[00:32:00.233]we've done a lot of work around the sustainability stuff.
[00:32:03.987]I mean that's just been a huge theme.
[00:32:06.024]And I've kinda taken that into my fun time,
[00:32:10.810]where now I'm doing composting,
[00:32:13.338]I'm out gardening,
[00:32:14.898]doing a lot of sort of nature stuff.
[00:32:17.249]And I just love it!
[00:32:19.270]And I love kinda practicing and seeing,
[00:32:21.930]how does natural systems work,
[00:32:23.452]but it's just great to kinda unplug from the
[00:32:26.166]world of overload and just have some time
[00:32:28.870]to kinda refresh, reinvigorate,
[00:32:31.789]and kinda let it all soak in.
[00:32:33.910]And I find that we come back to our work
[00:32:36.180]a little more fresh and revitalized.
[00:32:38.642]Well I love that you're doing that in Houston.
[00:32:40.625](laughing)
[00:32:41.770]I know, right.
[00:32:42.870]I think that's just, that's awesome.
[00:32:45.430]Because I think too, we can kinda see this
[00:32:47.848]weak signal right, where people are wanting to unplug.
[00:32:51.208]We're on all the time, so how do we unplug.
[00:32:54.611]As somebody with both a hard science background
[00:32:58.250]and a human social science background,
[00:33:00.908]the intersection of those disciplines
[00:33:03.300]and those sciences I think is so critical
[00:33:05.170]in terms of creating you used that word ecosystem a lot,
[00:33:09.120]in this interview and in so many ways we can learn
[00:33:12.470]from nature and those natural systems.
[00:33:14.630]Not only on how to build different models in that future,
[00:33:18.670]but also how to take care of ourselves.
[00:33:20.780]I think in ways that always existed
[00:33:23.900]and we need to reconnect with.
[00:33:25.600]In some ways.
[00:33:26.649]Yeah and we actually teach, part of our curriculum,
[00:33:30.470]we teach called personal futures planning
[00:33:32.490]and it's basically taking the same principles
[00:33:34.340]that we use with organizations, or government agencies,
[00:33:37.390]whoever it might be that we're working with
[00:33:38.777]and doing that ourselves.
[00:33:40.227]Maybe as I've gotten a little older
[00:33:42.390]and more reflective, I've really tried to think about
[00:33:44.540]am I practicing what I'm preaching?
[00:33:46.790]I've had the opportunity to work with a lot of different
[00:33:48.797]sectors, industries, and groups of people
[00:33:51.487]and I've learned a lot from them
[00:33:52.643]and now trying to apply that more in my personal life.
[00:33:56.202](light music)
[00:33:58.750]Okay Andy, obviously I could talk to you for hours,
[00:34:01.190]because I always learn so much from you,
[00:34:03.257]and we so appreciate you taking the time to be on.
[00:34:06.000]We know you're very, very busy.
[00:34:07.477]But I'd love to know what your parting words of wisdom
[00:34:11.007]for our audience are.
[00:34:13.007]Well, I would say that thinking about our own
[00:34:17.430]personal futures is I can't think of a better advice,
[00:34:21.360]because I think if we have our own sense of purpose
[00:34:24.380]that we talked about.
[00:34:25.620]Having that sense of purpose and some sense of direction,
[00:34:28.952]it really helps you when it comes time
[00:34:31.870]for those pivotal choices, where should I go left or right.
[00:34:36.110]Having that sense of purpose can help guide you,
[00:34:39.160]kind of along those choice points, right.
[00:34:41.460]So I think having our own sense of how we would like
[00:34:45.330]our journey to go and then when we bring that
[00:34:47.970]to our organizations, that's gold for the organization.
[00:34:50.634]Having a bunch of folks who have a sense of
[00:34:54.320]what they wanna do, where they wanna go,
[00:34:55.933]I mean give me a group like that
[00:34:57.130]and I think we can conquer the world.
[00:34:59.361]I love that!
[00:35:00.690]That's a perfect, perfect note to end on
[00:35:02.820]and I really appreciate that you're using
[00:35:05.400]that strategic foresight, not just to teach so many others,
[00:35:08.660]obviously you're making a huge dent in the world,
[00:35:10.840]in this space, by the work you're doing.
[00:35:12.994]Again, you're walking that talk,
[00:35:15.470]you're using it personally,
[00:35:16.433]and you're seeing the fruits of that purposeful,
[00:35:20.118]planning and thinking about your own future.
[00:35:23.050]So, that's very cool I think to think about
[00:35:26.150]how others could use those tools in their own lives
[00:35:28.207]and really make things happen for themselves.
[00:35:30.282]That they desire to have happen,
[00:35:32.060]not just letting things happen to them.
[00:35:33.781]Andy, one last question I have for you.
[00:35:35.990]Before we sign off is, where can people find you?
[00:35:38.431]Sure, couple different places in the web.
[00:35:41.450]Houston Futures, all one word.
[00:35:43.760]Is a site that describes the academic thing
[00:35:46.180]that we're doing that week-long trainings
[00:35:48.330]and things like that.
[00:35:49.163]So there's way you can kind of learn about
[00:35:50.700]how to do this.
[00:35:51.533]And then my own stuff, I have a little blog
[00:35:53.820]which is really fun by the way, I gotta say,
[00:35:56.390]I really enjoy putting together my weekly blog post.
[00:35:59.359]And that's at andyhindsight.com.
[00:36:02.350]Thanks for listening to Rural Futures
[00:36:04.820]with Dr. Connie.
[00:36:05.890]Give us a rating and drop us a review
[00:36:07.640]to let us know what you think of the show.
[00:36:09.470]You can find us on social media,
[00:36:11.190]at Rural Futures.
[00:36:12.299]Our next episode features Seth Gerner,
[00:36:14.680]co-founder and co-CEO of Vivayic.
[00:36:17.100]A start up company based in Nebraska,
[00:36:19.070]but with a team across the country.
[00:36:20.668]Seth started out as an agriculture teacher,
[00:36:23.260]but for the past 13 years with Vivayic,
[00:36:25.290]he and his team have designed and implemented
[00:36:27.350]training programs for companies and organizations
[00:36:29.522]nationwide.
[00:36:30.782]People have access to information like they've never
[00:36:33.796]had access before.
[00:36:35.020]But, learning is more than just being able to access
[00:36:38.280]information.
[00:36:39.113]It's giving people an experience,
[00:36:41.750]it's putting them in situations,
[00:36:43.470]it's challenging them to think differently,
[00:36:45.073]it's giving them a chance to get their hands on
[00:36:48.011]a real world situation
[00:36:50.400]and figure out how to solve the problem.

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Rural Futures with Dr. Connie Episode 8 Featuring Andy Hines

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