Nebraska Legislature - Special Committee - Climate Change Seminar - University of Nebraska Research Initiatives

Clinton Rowe Author

06/08/2016 Added

188 Plays

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Seminar on Climate Change for the Climate Change Seminar for Elected Officials of the Nebraska Legislature University of Nebraska Research Initatives

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[00:00:00.745]It's due to agriculture and natural resources
[00:00:02.564]in the realm of climate change.
[00:00:05.978]I'm representing the Department of Earth
[00:00:07.677]and Atmospheric Sciences.
[00:00:09.511]We have a group of half a dozen
[00:00:12.658]or eight atmospheric scientists.
[00:00:17.186]Most of us are interested in doing research
[00:00:20.169]in some aspect of climate change,
[00:00:22.944]either directly or in some cases indirectly.
[00:00:25.545]We have people who study severe weather,
[00:00:27.890]and so we're very interested in how extreme events
[00:00:30.665]might change over the coming years.
[00:00:34.937]Most of us use, as Don pointed out,
[00:00:37.793]most of us use models,
[00:00:40.358]because we don't have a laboratory
[00:00:44.485]with which we can experiment on Earth.
[00:00:46.783]There is no other Earth that we can do something with,
[00:00:49.991]and a control Earth that we can leave the way it was,
[00:00:53.273]and we're doing the experiment now,
[00:00:56.196]on the only Earth we have.
[00:00:58.404]And so the tool that we use are computer models
[00:01:02.988]that we build to try to mimic what goes on.
[00:01:06.994]The processes that go on in the atmosphere,
[00:01:09.733]and then we can use those models
[00:01:12.462]to project what might happen, given, as Don pointed out,
[00:01:16.386]the scenarios that we can kind of develop
[00:01:18.813]of what might happen in terms of the atmospheric composition
[00:01:21.971]over the next hundred years or so.
[00:01:25.001]And as such,
[00:01:27.218]we hear very commonly, "It's a model, how good is it?"
[00:01:33.023]Well, they're actually pretty good.
[00:01:34.730]And people say, "Well we can't just rely on a model."
[00:01:37.586]Then I hate to tell ya,
[00:01:38.747]but you all relied on models to get here today.
[00:01:41.685]Okay?
[00:01:42.625]The engineers in Detroit have models of how cars run,
[00:01:46.114]and they use those to help them design cars.
[00:01:48.808]None of you worried about whether the model was gonna fail,
[00:01:51.966]and your car wasn't gonna get you here today.
[00:01:53.973]But there was the possibility that might happen, right?
[00:01:57.004]So models are used everywhere.
[00:01:58.838]Whenever you fly, you're flying in a plane
[00:02:00.627]that was designed using aerodynamical models.
[00:02:05.409]So climate's no different
[00:02:06.640]except we have to wait around to see what the outcome is.
[00:02:12.522]And maybe we shouldn't.
[00:02:15.198](laughs) Maybe we need to do things.
[00:02:17.207]Because the outcome that the models project now,
[00:02:20.334]for a climate at the end of the century are pretty dire.
[00:02:25.177]Don mentioned that the business as usual type of scenario
[00:02:28.608]in terms of CO2 emissions
[00:02:30.396]and the growth of CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere.
[00:02:34.924]We have had a little bit of a ray of hope a few years ago
[00:02:39.405]when the economy tanked and CO2 emissions
[00:02:41.403]went down a little bit.
[00:02:43.740]That's what goes for a ray of hope in the climate sciences,
[00:02:46.451]is the economy tanks, right?
[00:02:48.376](laughs)
[00:02:49.859]But CO2 emissions went down globally,
[00:02:53.231]but now we've come back and we're actually just slightly
[00:02:55.368]ahead of some of those business as usual scenarios
[00:02:58.444]that were built back in the early part of the century.
[00:03:03.564]And so we're kind of pumping out more CO2
[00:03:06.977]than we even thought then.
[00:03:08.556]So all those different scenarios that point to high,
[00:03:13.611]temperatures, global temperatures at the end of the century
[00:03:16.405]are where we are now, okay?
[00:03:18.971]The other ones, where it shows maybe not quite as high,
[00:03:21.362]or maybe even kinda leveling off,
[00:03:24.392]are things that we would hope to get to
[00:03:27.202]after the Paris Accords, but realistically are gonna be
[00:03:31.254]painful and hard to get to but probably necessary.
[00:03:35.863]So I've been involved in a number of proposals,
[00:03:41.239]trying to induce some modeling for Nebraska, per se.
[00:03:46.277]Unfortunately none of those have been successful.
[00:03:48.158]It's really difficult to get the federal government
[00:03:50.155]to pay for modeling of climate change for the United States.
[00:03:54.892]It's amazing, you know, you can do it,
[00:03:56.645]and what we've done is to just kinda do it on,
[00:03:59.164]we're doing studies for other areas
[00:04:03.773]and then kinda expanding the area,
[00:04:06.630]or other kinds of studies and then expanding it a little bit
[00:04:08.975]to cover Nebraska.
[00:04:10.426]Or doing Nebraska as part of one other study.
[00:04:13.758]But we'd like to be able to do some of that,
[00:04:17.171]some climate change down-scaling, we call it,
[00:04:19.946]from these global projections to get an idea of what
[00:04:22.756]the variation might be over the state a little bit more.
[00:04:26.936]So anyway, my handout doesn't have any pictures
[00:04:28.770]'cause I didn't do any Power Points, it's not very pretty,
[00:04:31.115]but it'll give you a little bit
[00:04:32.276]about what we do in our department,
[00:04:34.319]and provide some information about my colleagues,
[00:04:37.222]who, you can certainly contact if you have questions.
[00:04:40.333]You can contact me, too.
[00:04:41.483](laughs)
[00:04:42.771]Not just my colleagues.
[00:04:43.793]But I don't wanna stand between you and lunch,
[00:04:45.326]but I'll be glad to answer questions.
[00:04:50.957]Questions for Dr. Rowe?
[00:04:54.537]You know, can I tell a little story?
[00:04:55.860]Oh, please, yeah, if you've got a story.
[00:04:57.740]Okay, so this is interesting.
[00:04:59.319]Don mentioned that the report,
[00:05:01.792]the original report from 2014 that we did, was really
[00:05:05.612]helping to get Nebraska some notice in terms of climate
[00:05:09.955]change and how we were trying to deal with it.
[00:05:12.602]And so about three weeks after the report came out,
[00:05:17.467]I, and the university, one of the university representatives
[00:05:20.415]to the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research,
[00:05:23.318]which is a consortium of universities
[00:05:26.127]that runs the National Center for Atmospheric Research
[00:05:28.906]where a lot of these global climate models
[00:05:31.088]are developed and run in the United States.
[00:05:34.327]And so we have an annual meeting,
[00:05:35.824]and I took a copy of the report to give
[00:05:37.914]to the president of the consortium.
[00:05:41.665]And he immediate,
[00:05:43.929]I handed it to him and told him what it was,
[00:05:46.146]and he immediately took it and handed it off
[00:05:48.062]to their lobbyist in Washington to deal with.
[00:05:53.274]And it actually lead to the University of Nebraska
[00:05:56.841]being invited to a Washington forum
[00:06:01.044]that UCAR, the consortium was leading
[00:06:05.561]for federal agencies and for the staffs
[00:06:10.425]of our congress people and senators,
[00:06:14.907]federal, national senators.
[00:06:16.950]And so that was, it did get a lot of notice because of that.
[00:06:21.779]It's also lead to, I don't know,
[00:06:23.312]between the four of us, among the four of us
[00:06:25.276]we've done what, 50 different lectures at least?
[00:06:28.608](man murmurs) (Clinton stammers)
[00:06:30.361]Over the, since that, mostly in the first year.
[00:06:32.961]Including one, and I'll leave this on a humorous note,
[00:06:37.591]one that I did last, two Marches ago, now.
[00:06:43.641]And for the National Audubon Society.
[00:06:46.926]And their Vice President In Charge
[00:06:49.283]of Climate Change Impacts for Birds
[00:06:52.038]was there giving the keynote speech,
[00:06:53.956]and I was talking to him as we were eating lunch
[00:06:56.255]before he got up to talk, and I was, you know,
[00:06:58.902]he said, "You know what really bugs me,
[00:07:01.364]"is when somebody, you know, a politician gets up there
[00:07:03.717]"and says, 'Well I'm not a scientist, but'."
[00:07:05.807]"Yeah," I said, "I know what you mean."
[00:07:07.687]It's, you're not an economist,
[00:07:10.206]but you muck around with the economy all the time.
[00:07:12.424]And you're not an educator, necessarily,
[00:07:14.038]but you may decide what schools are gonna do.
[00:07:18.426]So ask the people who do, are scientists, you know?
[00:07:21.528]And he's like, "Yeah, we needed somebody to get up
[00:07:24.888]"in the Senate when somebody says 'I'm not a scientist'
[00:07:27.187]"and say something like that."
[00:07:28.256]And he goes, "You know who'd be good?
[00:07:29.324]"That guy from Minnesota."
[00:07:31.715]You mean Al Franken?
[00:07:32.655]He says, "Yeah, that perfect comedic timing."
[00:07:36.150]So, all right, so this is on a Saturday in March,
[00:07:41.273]in Kearney, and the next morning I'm on a flight to D.C.
[00:07:46.254]Well first I had to go to Minneapolis, right?
[00:07:48.901]My plane, my flight's delayed, okay?
[00:07:51.072]And then they ask for people who can go later.
[00:07:53.523]Well I don't have to be there any time soon,
[00:07:55.357]so I take the bump and a voucher.
[00:07:58.771]And get on the plane a few hours later.
[00:08:02.439]Who's sitting three rows ahead of me?
[00:08:04.959]Al Franken.
[00:08:06.747]Heading back to D.C., right?
[00:08:08.918]So midway through the flight
[00:08:10.288]I get up to take care of some business,
[00:08:12.807]Al Franken gets up to take care of some.
[00:08:14.549]We end up standing in the line at the back of the plane,
[00:08:18.101]and I tell him the story.
[00:08:19.123](laughs)
[00:08:19.956]So I'm waiting for him to do it, and if it ever does it,
[00:08:22.490]you know where it came from, I just wanna let you know.
[00:08:24.626](laughs)
[00:08:26.496]I might also mention that as a result of the report,
[00:08:31.024]that President Obama Science Advisor John Holdren,
[00:08:33.844]Yeah. Came to Nebraska
[00:08:36.016]to talk about the work that we've done here,
[00:08:39.187]so there's a huge appreciation
[00:08:40.551]within the Science Policy Office,
[00:08:42.432]Yeah.
[00:08:43.265]In Washington for the work that's gone on.
[00:08:44.603]That one, when we did that forum in D.C.,
[00:08:47.266]we actually went and met with his staffers as well,
[00:08:49.867]that same day.
[00:08:51.921]Also the Consulate-General for Great Britain,
[00:08:55.718]who's stationed in Chicago,
[00:08:57.169]came to the University to talk about your report
[00:09:00.118]and then he stopped in my office,
[00:09:01.860]and talked a little bit too, so.
[00:09:03.734]So truly, I mean, we're leaders,
[00:09:06.810]and we're gonna try and do that
[00:09:09.058]with the climate action plan, too.
[00:09:11.229]That'd be great.
[00:09:13.110]Did you have a question?
[00:09:14.584]Or, okay, I have a question for you.
[00:09:18.068]We hear 97% of climate scientists,
[00:09:21.413]and I know that there are some uh,
[00:09:24.188]there are some climate scientists who are skeptics.
[00:09:28.194]How do you view that?
[00:09:30.238]Because when I've given talks I usually
[00:09:32.722]run into one or two skeptics.
[00:09:37.284]That are climate scientists, or just skeptics in general?
[00:09:38.817]No, no, just skeptics.
[00:09:40.019]Okay. (laughs)
[00:09:40.852]In the audience, so, um,
[00:09:44.345]how do you view that, you know,
[00:09:46.558]it's not 101% of climate scientists that say,
[00:09:51.469]anthropogenic climate change?
[00:09:55.045]There are a few out there.
[00:09:56.670]Yeah, yeah, there are,
[00:09:58.249]but I mean nothing is absolutely certain in science.
[00:10:02.127]Ever.
[00:10:02.960]I mean, that's what science is.
[00:10:03.880]Is we're pushing forward, learning,
[00:10:07.096]and everything we do is refutable, okay?
[00:10:11.113]It hasn't happened yet, okay,
[00:10:12.994]but everything we do is refutable.
[00:10:14.527]So you're always, I think you're always gonna have
[00:10:17.638]some skeptics in any field of science.
[00:10:20.494]I mean, I'm sure you could find doctors
[00:10:22.456]that don't agree with,
[00:10:26.407]whatever.
[00:10:27.240]But it's the preponderance of knowledge that we have
[00:10:30.888]that is really driving this forward, that we are becoming
[00:10:34.777]more and more certain about this all the time.
[00:10:37.378]I would say, you know, 20 years ago,
[00:10:39.468]you know, I wasn't 100%
[00:10:42.324]that the models were as good as they are, okay?
[00:10:46.465]But I'm pretty convinced now.
[00:10:51.067]Yeah, well John Oliver,
[00:10:52.772]those of you that maybe follow John Oliver,
[00:10:54.746]he's on HBO now. (Clinton laughs)
[00:10:57.035]He did a great example where he,
[00:10:59.090]where he said, "Well oftentimes when you have a debate,
[00:11:03.618]"in the media, they'll invite a skeptic,
[00:11:07.723]"and they'll invite a scientist," he said,
[00:11:09.430]"but that's not really fair,
[00:11:11.264]"because the preponderance of scientists
[00:11:14.504]"say that climate change is real and humans are factors."
[00:11:17.197]So he had 97 people come on to the stage
[00:11:22.034]who were climate scientists, and then he had three.
[00:11:24.709]So just trying to show the disproportionate,
[00:11:27.402]rather than one-on-one, which gives the public the view
[00:11:30.212]that this is kind of a 50/50 proposition; it's not.
[00:11:33.196]Right.
[00:11:34.101]Yeah, I mean it's like having a Flat Earther
[00:11:36.226]and somebody else there debating whether the Earth is flat.
[00:11:39.987]I mean, it would make them seem equal in weight.
[00:11:42.716]But the great analogy, you know,
[00:11:45.477]is if you get a second opinion from a doctor
[00:11:50.122]and you still don't like it,
[00:11:51.747]you go to a third, you know, maybe eventually,
[00:11:53.837]you'll find somebody who'll give you the opinion you want.
[00:11:57.426]It doesn't make that the best,
[00:12:00.708]that's not the best way to base your course of action.
[00:12:04.350](laughs)
[00:12:05.432]So.
[00:12:06.372]So you're not gonna give me 100%.
[00:12:09.250]If we had absolute certainty in things,
[00:12:12.866]where's the fun in that?
[00:12:14.558](laughs)
[00:12:16.594]Said the Doctor.
[00:12:17.697](speech is drowned out by laughter)
[00:12:20.007]Theologian instead of a scientist.
[00:12:22.740]Yeah, yeah.
[00:12:23.839]Gotcha.
[00:12:24.672]Yeah. Okay.

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Nebraska Legislature - Special Committee - Climate Change Seminar - University of Nebraska Research Initiatives

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