Nebraska Legislature - Special Committee - Climate Change Seminar - Overview
Don Wilhite
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06/08/2016
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Seminar on Climate Change for the Climate Change Seminar for Elected Officials of the Nebraska Legislature - Overview
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- [00:00:00.391]So, I wanna thank, first of all,
- [00:00:02.526]the sponsors at the University of Nebraska
- [00:00:05.894]for this particular session today.
- [00:00:10.794]The agricultural research division
- [00:00:12.974]of the Institute of Ag and Natural Resources,
- [00:00:15.042]one of the sponsors.
- [00:00:16.458]The Office of Research and Economic Development,
- [00:00:19.174]Graham Paul's office is sponsoring this,
- [00:00:21.822]the School of Natural Resources,
- [00:00:23.470]and also the Water for Food Institute,
- [00:00:25.814]so all four of them are sponsoring this session.
- [00:00:28.541]So, I'm always pleased when I go to these different groups
- [00:00:32.161]and I say, "We're putting on this session."
- [00:00:34.877]"Will you help sponsor this?"
- [00:00:36.821]There's never any hesitation.
- [00:00:38.541]They always say, "Yes, we'd love to do this."
- [00:00:41.977]So, I think it's a great opportunity to share information
- [00:00:46.761]between the various groups that are here,
- [00:00:49.221]to do some educating on this issue,
- [00:00:50.917]which is an important one,
- [00:00:52.571]and as you noticed on the agenda, following the break,
- [00:00:57.283]we're gonna have a report back on
- [00:00:59.443]from four of the eight roundtables that we had,
- [00:01:03.575]so we didn't have enough time to include
- [00:01:05.111]all eight in the discussion, but these are four
- [00:01:07.987]that are especially critical.
- [00:01:13.835]So, Ronnie's already mentioned the report and the authors,
- [00:01:17.827]so Clint Rowe is here as one of the main authors
- [00:01:20.871]that was associated with this report
- [00:01:25.745]that we did and published in September of 2014.
- [00:01:30.370]Deborah Bathke also, and also Bob Oglesby
- [00:01:34.038]were main authors of the report,
- [00:01:36.313]but there were a lot of other people
- [00:01:37.797]that provided input to this,
- [00:01:40.214]so I'll talk about in just a few minutes
- [00:01:42.557]the fact that we, as part of the report,
- [00:01:44.724]we focused on different sectors in the report
- [00:01:47.140]and I ask a number of people
- [00:01:48.641]that were experts in those sectors
- [00:01:50.760]to write commentaries that talk about
- [00:01:53.779]the implications of climate change
- [00:01:55.323]on those particular sectors and so, Scott Josiah's here.
- [00:02:00.360]He wrote about the forestry sector and so forth
- [00:02:03.264]and Nick, Nick Brozovic is here from the Water for Food.
- [00:02:07.676]He and some others wrote about
- [00:02:10.276]the agricultural sector, the water sector and so forth.
- [00:02:14.316]Then, we tried to flesh out more information
- [00:02:16.985]about those sectors in the roundtables
- [00:02:18.961]that were held in the fall of 2015.
- [00:02:22.697]So,
- [00:02:26.809]the remote's not working.
- [00:02:27.897]Is this not...
- [00:02:31.620]I can use the, I can use the...
- [00:02:37.124]Ah.
- [00:02:46.252]It was working earlier, wasn't it?
- [00:02:47.882]Let me just use the...
- [00:02:55.837]We'll edit this part out of the...
- [00:02:59.315]Let me just use, let me just use these.
- [00:03:05.893]Greg, this isn't working either.
- [00:03:11.025]Looks like it locked up.
- [00:03:15.529]Sorry about that.
- [00:03:18.462]While they're getting this to work,
- [00:03:19.993]I might just say that more and more people
- [00:03:25.170]are feeling comfortable talking about climate change
- [00:03:27.610]in this state and for those of you
- [00:03:29.374]who are not aware of this, the recent view
- [00:03:32.506]in the all rural poll showed that 61% of rural Nebraskans,
- [00:03:38.685]either agreed or strongly agreed
- [00:03:41.354]that the state needs to have a climate act plan,
- [00:03:45.210]so that's part of the reason for--
- [00:03:47.254]Okay.
- [00:03:49.093]Okay.
- [00:03:50.997]Nice filler, so (laughs) good job.
- [00:03:53.817]Okay, so this is the cover of the report
- [00:03:57.369]that we are talking about, the September 2014 report,
- [00:04:01.224]so the outline of my presentation is basically
- [00:04:03.520]going to follow the outline of the report
- [00:04:05.752]that we did in September of 2014.
- [00:04:09.372]If you want electronic copies of the report,
- [00:04:11.372]it's available at that particular URL at the university.
- [00:04:17.548]There's a lot of other information on that site as well,
- [00:04:20.100]including the roundtable reports,
- [00:04:22.332]so if you want to download that.
- [00:04:24.536]You're free to make copies,
- [00:04:25.860]distribute that as you need to and so forth.
- [00:04:30.480]So basically, I'm gonna go through some of
- [00:04:32.060]the observed changes that we've seen in climate,
- [00:04:36.076]global scale, national scale, Nebraska, and so on.
- [00:04:40.812]Look at climate change science,
- [00:04:43.228]what we know about climate change science,
- [00:04:45.296]what's driving these changes and so forth,
- [00:04:48.360]projections of future changes,
- [00:04:50.312]an understanding of these projections,
- [00:04:52.700]and some of the impacts.
- [00:04:57.072]What?
- [00:05:04.292]Is the microphone not working?
- [00:05:06.179]It's working?
- [00:05:08.547]Okay, all right.
- [00:05:15.279]Can you get rid of that, can you get rid of the box?
- [00:05:17.439]Or is it...
- [00:05:19.971]The box on the screen.
- [00:05:26.447]I thought that disappeared automatically.
- [00:05:31.327]Okay, all right.
- [00:05:34.194]So, as part of the 2014 report,
- [00:05:39.527]as I mentioned, we focused on a number of different sectors
- [00:05:42.339]that we thought were really critical
- [00:05:44.079]and we were building a lot off of
- [00:05:45.775]the National Climate Assessment report
- [00:05:47.979]that was issued in May of 2014,
- [00:05:51.627]and so, we pulled a lot of information
- [00:05:53.483]and then that report, there was talk about
- [00:05:55.943]changes on a regional scale, at a national scale
- [00:05:58.543]and there was also talk about changes
- [00:06:00.683]as they might affect different sectors
- [00:06:03.187]and so, we pulled off of those sectors
- [00:06:04.883]and included these commentaries
- [00:06:07.579]and then, as a follow on to that,
- [00:06:10.735]the roundtables were organized
- [00:06:12.455]as a mechanism to bring together
- [00:06:14.799]stakeholders within these various sectors
- [00:06:17.723]to actually talk about the implications
- [00:06:20.303]of the projected changes in climate
- [00:06:22.183]and the changes that we've seen already
- [00:06:24.551]on their particular sector and I think in total,
- [00:06:28.736]well, Kim worked with me on these.
- [00:06:31.386]In total, we had around 350 people
- [00:06:34.170]that attended these eight sector-based roundtables.
- [00:06:39.138]Ken kept popping up at most of these,
- [00:06:41.299]so he got counted many times, but 350 people,
- [00:06:46.035]so there was a really good exchange of ideas,
- [00:06:48.706]concerns, issues, and so on associated with climate change.
- [00:06:52.143]It's interesting because what we've done here in Nebraska,
- [00:06:55.323]in terms of the 2014 report and also the 2015 report,
- [00:07:00.527]is now considered to be a major success story
- [00:07:03.266]of the National Climate Assessment,
- [00:07:05.146]so the next National Climate Assessment,
- [00:07:07.351]which will occur in another three or four years,
- [00:07:10.302]is going to use Nebraska as an example of a case study,
- [00:07:14.734]a success associated with climate change
- [00:07:18.615]and what their expectation was
- [00:07:20.587]was that states would take the information
- [00:07:24.582]in the National Climate Assessment report
- [00:07:26.395]and do things like what we have done here,
- [00:07:29.135]so I think we're poised to take this to the next level
- [00:07:33.079]and then hopefully, this legislative resolution
- [00:07:35.287]will give us an opportunity to do that.
- [00:07:38.364]I'll start with, we brought to campus Tony Leiserowitz
- [00:07:43.960]in March of 2014, actually or 2015,
- [00:07:50.881]to talk about climate change.
- [00:07:54.364]He leads a climate change communication program
- [00:07:56.593]at Yale University, and so he came
- [00:07:58.800]and he gave an excellent talk.
- [00:08:00.888]He was one of the Heuermann Lecture speakers,
- [00:08:03.696]so I suggested to Ronnie that we bring him to campus
- [00:08:06.948]and he came to campus, when he began his presentation,
- [00:08:09.316]I mean, this is a very complex issue, climate change,
- [00:08:12.036]and so he said to a lot of audiences,
- [00:08:14.912]he tries to simplify this and he wanted to
- [00:08:17.649]simplify it in terms of 10 words.
- [00:08:21.428]So, those 10 words were, first of all, that it's real.
- [00:08:25.864]Secondly, that it's us.
- [00:08:28.624]Third, that it's bad.
- [00:08:31.714]Fourth, it's scientists agree
- [00:08:33.874]and finally, that there's hope,
- [00:08:36.706]so this message of hope is an important one
- [00:08:39.026]because when you look at climate change
- [00:08:41.210]and climate change projections,
- [00:08:42.790]it's easy to come away being very pessimistic
- [00:08:46.458]about our future and the future of this planet
- [00:08:49.154]in terms of how the environment's
- [00:08:50.802]going to change and so forth.
- [00:08:53.074]I gave a talk recently in Omaha
- [00:08:56.210]and when I put up this bullet that said scientists agree,
- [00:09:00.462]someone in the audience said, "No, they don't."
- [00:09:04.038]So, I'll talk to that in just a minute,
- [00:09:06.754]as to what we mean by that.
- [00:09:08.890]So, addressing climate change is really a moral issue
- [00:09:12.162]and this came out in the Pope's encyclical.
- [00:09:14.182]It was issued last year and so on
- [00:09:17.362]and it's not just for future generations,
- [00:09:20.082]but also now because we're already seeing these changes
- [00:09:22.682]and Ronnie was referring to those earlier,
- [00:09:25.606]but we need to do something about this.
- [00:09:27.954]We need to talk this out of the political perspective
- [00:09:30.366]and look at this from a scientific perspective
- [00:09:33.672]in what we know and what we don't know
- [00:09:35.703]and try to move forward with the conversation.
- [00:09:38.975]So, what is scientific consensus?
- [00:09:41.831]So I thought it was important maybe to
- [00:09:43.711]talk about that just a minute.
- [00:09:45.779]So the common statistics that's used
- [00:09:47.775]is that 97% of climate scientists agree
- [00:09:52.301]that not only the climate is changing,
- [00:09:54.161]but that humans are the driving factor here,
- [00:09:57.201]so we're talking about greenhouse gas changes
- [00:09:59.385]and concentrations and so on in the atmosphere.
- [00:10:02.429]So 97%, there's been more recent studies
- [00:10:04.841]that would put this closer to 100%.
- [00:10:07.441]So within the climate science community,
- [00:10:10.522]this is real and this is bad
- [00:10:13.829]and this is something that we need to do something about,
- [00:10:16.405]so scientific consensus, if you look at a definition of it
- [00:10:19.657]and there's a discussion of this in that 2014 report,
- [00:10:23.485]represents a collective position
- [00:10:25.161]of the community of scientists
- [00:10:26.621]in a specialized field of study,
- [00:10:29.269]so in this case, climate science.
- [00:10:32.473]It doesn't mean that every single climate scientist agrees
- [00:10:36.469]or may just disagree on certain aspects
- [00:10:40.389]of what some of the projections are
- [00:10:42.249]or some of the methodology and so forth.
- [00:10:45.593]Climate, or scientific consensus is achieved
- [00:10:48.217]through the process of peer review.
- [00:10:49.957]This is how science works,
- [00:10:51.745]is that we put information out there.
- [00:10:53.257]It's challenged by other scientists and so on
- [00:10:55.369]and we move forward.
- [00:10:58.573]It does not mean that all scientists
- [00:11:00.569]in a field of study agree,
- [00:11:03.077]so if you think about this
- [00:11:04.469]in terms of the health profession,
- [00:11:06.353]if you went for a diagnosis
- [00:11:08.117]and you went to five different physicians
- [00:11:10.957]and four of the five told you that
- [00:11:15.093]you needed to have surgery
- [00:11:16.437]and this is why you needed surgery,
- [00:11:17.902]but one disagreed with that,
- [00:11:20.043]I mean, you would take those
- [00:11:21.156]four out of five pretty seriously,
- [00:11:22.944]and so in this case, we're looking at
- [00:11:24.731]almost 10 out of 10 scientists
- [00:11:28.143]that are saying this is real, this is bad,
- [00:11:30.907]this is something we need to do about,
- [00:11:33.555]so there are some dissenting votes
- [00:11:35.623]and oftentimes, the ones you hear about
- [00:11:38.384]are actually not climate scientists,
- [00:11:40.731]but they're scientists in other fields of study,
- [00:11:43.027]sometimes completely removed from climate science
- [00:11:45.839]and they get a lot of publicity
- [00:11:47.106]and they get a lot of money from the
- [00:11:48.199]fossil fuel industry to say certain things.
- [00:11:52.585]So, our understanding of the magnitude
- [00:11:54.165]and the impacts of climate change continues to increase.
- [00:11:57.741]Improved computer models,
- [00:12:00.781]improved data, more data that we're collecting
- [00:12:05.239]from satellites and from other
- [00:12:06.863]ground observations and so on.
- [00:12:09.047]It's all improving our understanding of climate science,
- [00:12:11.695]so we continue to refine what we know,
- [00:12:14.295]modify what the projections are and so on as we go forward.
- [00:12:17.799]In the UN Climate Change Report,
- [00:12:21.052]we said in there, for more than a decade,
- [00:12:23.048]there's been a broad and overwhelming consensus
- [00:12:25.789]within the climate science community
- [00:12:27.716]that the human-induced effects of climate change
- [00:12:29.900]are both very real and very large
- [00:12:32.989]and so, this is the view within
- [00:12:34.496]the climate science community.
- [00:12:37.492]So finally, the global community came together in Paris
- [00:12:41.648]with the climate treaty of the conference of the parties
- [00:12:44.321]last December and signed an agreement
- [00:12:47.824]making pledges as to how they're going to reduce
- [00:12:50.540]greenhouse gas emissions and try to deal with this issue,
- [00:12:54.304]so we had, I think, 195 countries that signed this
- [00:12:57.924]and I think a lot of the success of this event
- [00:13:01.409]was to be attributed to the US, I think,
- [00:13:04.448]providing a lot of leadership for the first time
- [00:13:07.188]to address this issue and get countries
- [00:13:09.652]to come to this meeting, having already made a pledge
- [00:13:13.345]on what they were going to do
- [00:13:14.852]to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
- [00:13:17.904]So, I put this up there because
- [00:13:19.484]I could talk about this issue for a long time.
- [00:13:21.736]Clint could talk about it for a long time,
- [00:13:24.837]but there are time constraints, right?
- [00:13:27.181]So, I'm not gonna talk about this forever.
- [00:13:30.965]Introduction, background.
- [00:13:32.845]I wanna begin with this slide because
- [00:13:35.053]this is one that there's a lot of confusion
- [00:13:39.349]that results from, particularly in the public,
- [00:13:43.181]about the differentiation between weather and climate,
- [00:13:46.501]so weather is the condition of the atmosphere
- [00:13:48.429]at a particular place in time,
- [00:13:50.449]so it's highly variable from minute to minute,
- [00:13:52.605]hour to hour, day to day, week to week, and so on
- [00:13:55.997]and it's defined by sunshine, precipitation,
- [00:13:58.969]temperature, and all these variables, winds and so forth.
- [00:14:02.265]Climate, on the other hand, is the composite
- [00:14:04.145]or average of weather over a long period of time,
- [00:14:07.281]so with climate, we're looking at trends
- [00:14:12.297]in what we're seeing, whether it's temperature trends,
- [00:14:14.737]whether it's trends in terms of precipitation and so on.
- [00:14:17.729]We're looking at trends over a longer period of time.
- [00:14:21.005]We're also very concerned about
- [00:14:23.929]the frequency of extreme events
- [00:14:26.669]because these impose tremendous hardships
- [00:14:29.341]on society, on people and so on
- [00:14:31.733]on economic infrastructure and so forth
- [00:14:35.101]and so Mark Twain once said,
- [00:14:36.377]"Climate is what you expect and weather is what you get."
- [00:14:39.161]So, that's another way of sort of
- [00:14:40.765]defining the difference between weather and climate,
- [00:14:43.365]but people will, that live in a certain area,
- [00:14:46.477]maybe they're had a cold winter
- [00:14:49.401]will say things like, "Well,
- [00:14:51.029]"whatever happened to global warming?"
- [00:14:53.421]Well, again, climate is a regional phenomena.
- [00:14:58.715]Changes in climate are occurring over larger timescales,
- [00:15:03.939]so we're looking at trends,
- [00:15:05.587]but weather patterns obviously
- [00:15:06.935]are variable on the order of weeks, months, and so forth,
- [00:15:10.067]so yes, you're gonna have, if you look at
- [00:15:11.835]global mean temperature for a certain particular year,
- [00:15:15.411]you're gonna have some areas that were cooler than normal,
- [00:15:17.615]some areas that are warmer than normal.
- [00:15:19.635]What we've seen more recently is that
- [00:15:22.211]the warmer than normal are dominating.
- [00:15:25.651]So, why is climate important?
- [00:15:27.787]Well, climate is important because
- [00:15:29.783]it defines sort of the constrains of a lot of what we do,
- [00:15:33.891]so if you look at planting decisions by farmers,
- [00:15:36.167]what crops they grow where, when they plant,
- [00:15:38.839]and so, when they harvest and so on,
- [00:15:42.636]issues related to architecture
- [00:15:44.168]and how we design our buildings,
- [00:15:45.560]how we design dams, reservoirs, storm sewers, et cetera.
- [00:15:49.764]All of this is based upon climate
- [00:15:51.740]and historical climate information,
- [00:15:54.640]so we have these terms, stationarity
- [00:15:57.124]versus non-stationarity and,
- [00:16:00.840]so stationarity is assuming that we have,
- [00:16:03.720]while it's a variable, weather pattern over time,
- [00:16:07.180]that it's not changing, okay?
- [00:16:09.316]So, the climate is stationary,
- [00:16:12.264]whereas what we are seeing now
- [00:16:15.004]is that we moved to a situation
- [00:16:16.748]where we have non-stationarity of climate,
- [00:16:19.672]so we have trends, things that are going on,
- [00:16:22.228]so this raises all kinds of questions
- [00:16:24.432]about designs for the future, things that we're building,
- [00:16:27.916]whether it's utility facilities,
- [00:16:29.496]whether it's reservoirs or whatever,
- [00:16:32.652]how do we design those based on a climate that's changing
- [00:16:35.696]rather than one that's stable?
- [00:16:37.832]So, we'll talk about that more as we go forward,
- [00:16:40.456]so some of the observed changes in climate,
- [00:16:44.379]there are, could be, you could look at
- [00:16:46.182]10 key indicators of changes in climate.
- [00:16:51.074]If the climate is changing, we should see
- [00:16:53.862]a rise in air temperature over land, over water.
- [00:16:56.926]We should see an increase of ocean heat content,
- [00:17:01.130]sea surface temperatures should be increasing.
- [00:17:04.614]Water vapor should be increasing
- [00:17:06.214]within the atmosphere and so on.
- [00:17:08.534]Certain things should be decreasing as a result
- [00:17:10.694]of the higher temperatures and so on.
- [00:17:13.946]We should see a decrease in sea ice,
- [00:17:16.526]a decrease in glaciers and ice sheet,
- [00:17:18.314]a decrease in snow cover and so on,
- [00:17:20.542]so if you look at the data sets
- [00:17:21.958]for all of those 10 variables,
- [00:17:23.722]you'll see that they all confirm
- [00:17:25.602]that our climate is changing at a global scale,
- [00:17:28.878]at a regional scale for almost all places on earth
- [00:17:32.638]and so, we have sea level rise because of
- [00:17:34.938]the melting of glaciers and ice sheets.
- [00:17:37.838]We also have a warming of the ocean,
- [00:17:39.442]so you have a thermal expansion of the ocean and so forth.
- [00:17:42.148]The sea level is rising.
- [00:17:43.796]This is creating huge economic concerns
- [00:17:46.884]for coastal communities and so forth,
- [00:17:49.162]island nations and so on.
- [00:17:51.274]So, I wanted to show you this animation.
- [00:17:56.546]So, what this is showing before I start this,
- [00:17:59.470]is this is showing global temperature
- [00:18:03.326]on an annual basis from 1884 through 2012
- [00:18:08.014]and so, the areas that are in yellow
- [00:18:09.942]are the warmer than normal
- [00:18:14.238]and then, the areas that are in blue
- [00:18:16.190]are the cooler than average regions of the world
- [00:18:21.598]for that particular year.
- [00:18:28.982]So as we go through this animation,
- [00:18:30.562]you see the year down here
- [00:18:33.616]and so, you see how these patterns,
- [00:18:35.008]these changes in weather from year to year,
- [00:18:37.796]are affecting different regions of the world,
- [00:18:40.164]in terms of areas that are warm,
- [00:18:41.952]areas that are cool, and so forth.
- [00:18:44.320]You get into the 1930s drought
- [00:18:46.504]and you see the very warm area of the United States
- [00:18:49.776]that shows up quite dramatically.
- [00:18:52.376]You see that also during the 1950s,
- [00:18:54.860]which was a significant drought event
- [00:18:57.532]in large portions of the central part of the US,
- [00:19:00.620]southern, Southwest and so forth,
- [00:19:03.386]but look at visually what happens
- [00:19:05.451]when you get past about 1970, 1975
- [00:19:09.467]in terms of this warming that we're seeing.
- [00:19:13.483]So the warming is dominating,
- [00:19:16.411]so yes, there are some areas where maybe there are some,
- [00:19:19.162]in this particular map, 2012 was a very warm year.
- [00:19:24.593]You really don't see much in way of cooler areas,
- [00:19:26.686]but you can see how the warmth is dominating.
- [00:19:31.701]If we look at 2015, a similar map.
- [00:19:35.693]2015 was the warmest year on record.
- [00:19:39.201]2016 looks like we're gonna beat 2015.
- [00:19:42.937]You see one cooler than average pocket up there,
- [00:19:45.841]but the rest of the globe is showing this warming trend,
- [00:19:50.345]so this is very, very significant.
- [00:19:53.226]So, this again shows this pattern.
- [00:19:55.153]This is from 1880 up through current
- [00:19:59.865]and you see the global mean temperature
- [00:20:03.490]shown here in the blue line
- [00:20:05.301]and you see the dominance of the warming
- [00:20:08.853]in more recent, more recent decades
- [00:20:12.073]and so, some incredible statistics.
- [00:20:14.114]There's 15 of the 16 hottest years on record
- [00:20:17.157]have occurred this century.
- [00:20:19.457]We're not very far into this century.
- [00:20:21.637]388 consecutive months through April of 2016
- [00:20:25.909]with a global mean temperature
- [00:20:27.629]above the 20th century average,
- [00:20:30.046]so what's the probability that you're gonna have
- [00:20:33.017]388 consecutive months that keep beating
- [00:20:38.568]the warmest month part of that on record.
- [00:20:42.397]1988 was a significant drought year in the United States.
- [00:20:47.761]It was a record year when it occurred in '88.
- [00:20:50.501]It now ranks as the 23rd hottest year,
- [00:20:54.265]so again, it puts things in perspective,
- [00:20:55.981]that we keep beating these records
- [00:21:00.441]year after year, month after month and so on.
- [00:21:04.781]So if we look at the pattern
- [00:21:05.873]of temperature change across the US
- [00:21:07.810]and this comes from the National Climate Assessment report,
- [00:21:10.642]you can see the majority of the warming,
- [00:21:12.571]the greatest amount of warming has been
- [00:21:13.895]in the northern tier and in the Western United States.
- [00:21:16.775]Nebraska is kind of a mixed bag
- [00:21:18.979]with some areas having a little more warming than others.
- [00:21:21.511]None of the areas that are cooling.
- [00:21:23.231]You see a little bit during this period.
- [00:21:25.807]There's actually been a little bit of a cooling,
- [00:21:27.759]but again, this is related to local climate controls
- [00:21:32.239]and the climate controls for different regions
- [00:21:34.235]are gonna be different, whether it's wind,
- [00:21:36.255]whether it's mountain ranges,
- [00:21:37.743]proximity to the ocean and so forth,
- [00:21:40.702]but you can see this general pattern
- [00:21:42.722]and you can see for the Great Plains north region,
- [00:21:44.902]which is what, the Climate Assessment report
- [00:21:47.041]put us in the north region, what that's showing.
- [00:21:51.845]Ronnie kind of referred to this in his opening remarks.
- [00:21:56.909]Observed increases in the frost-free season.
- [00:21:59.973]For the Great Plains as a whole,
- [00:22:01.669]the frost-free season has increased by about 10 days.
- [00:22:05.013]For Nebraska, it varies between about five and 25 days
- [00:22:08.913]and this is going to continue to increase
- [00:22:10.816]and so, farmers are adapting to these changes
- [00:22:13.392]obviously, in terms of farming practices.
- [00:22:16.176]This is the map that Ronnie was referring to.
- [00:22:19.196]I saw some of you looking for it in the roundtable report.
- [00:22:21.868]It's not in the roundtable report.
- [00:22:23.376]It's in the 2014 report,
- [00:22:26.184]but this is the line he was talking about
- [00:22:28.600]that was kind of along the Platte River.
- [00:22:31.292]This is the differences between
- [00:22:32.872]zones four and five in 1990
- [00:22:36.378]and if you look at where this demarcation line is in 2012,
- [00:22:43.134]it's up on the South Dakota border,
- [00:22:45.110]so a dramatic change in a period of 22 years
- [00:22:49.502]and this is obviously continuing to change.
- [00:22:52.358]The amount of corn that's being grown
- [00:22:53.822]in South Dakota's increased dramatically
- [00:22:55.842]because of these changes and so forth.
- [00:22:58.346]Shifts from spring wheat in the northern states
- [00:23:01.250]to winter wheat in the northern states
- [00:23:03.714]is already occurring, so we're seeing
- [00:23:05.106]a lot of those kinds of shifts occurring.
- [00:23:07.822]Another way to look at this is to look at,
- [00:23:09.934]if you have a stationary climate,
- [00:23:11.722]so one that's not changing across time,
- [00:23:14.602]you would expect to break high temperature records
- [00:23:16.372]at the same rate that you're
- [00:23:17.659]breaking low temperature records
- [00:23:19.616]and you see that was pretty much the case back in the 1950s
- [00:23:24.749]and then you can see what has happened now,
- [00:23:26.584]so now, we're breaking two high temperature records
- [00:23:29.368]for every low temperature record,
- [00:23:31.088]so we've shifted that pattern,
- [00:23:34.336]that distribution significantly.
- [00:23:38.680]As far as precipitation goes,
- [00:23:41.559]observed precipitation changes,
- [00:23:43.835]you can see relatively, rather significant changes
- [00:23:47.435]across the northern tier, across some areas.
- [00:23:50.011]Here are the Great Plains.
- [00:23:51.939]Significant drying that's occurring in the Southwest,
- [00:23:54.358]so there's a lot of concerns about that
- [00:23:56.078]with regards to allocation of water
- [00:23:58.586]and the Colorado River and so forth
- [00:24:00.630]and all the states that are competing for that water.
- [00:24:03.786]Again, Nebraska's kind of a mixed, a mixed bag
- [00:24:06.946]in terms of precipitation and this is annual precipitation.
- [00:24:11.494]What's really important is the seasonal distribution
- [00:24:14.098]and how that seasonal distribution is gonna change
- [00:24:16.688]and how the distribution of
- [00:24:19.684]high intensity storms is gonna change,
- [00:24:22.144]which we're already seeing.
- [00:24:27.669]So, this observed changes in heavy precipitation events,
- [00:24:33.428]particularly for the Eastern United States,
- [00:24:36.216]so we may not, for some areas,
- [00:24:37.748]we're seeing an increase in precipitation,
- [00:24:39.676]which you would expect because there's more
- [00:24:41.348]water vapor in the atmosphere
- [00:24:42.740]because there's more evaporation.
- [00:24:44.572]There's more energy in the atmosphere,
- [00:24:46.616]but we're seeing a higher proportion of the rainfall
- [00:24:48.940]occurring in these extreme rainfall events.
- [00:24:53.048]I mean, think of Lincoln.
- [00:24:55.788]Since May of last year, we've had three 100-year rainfalls,
- [00:25:01.430]one last May, one last October,
- [00:25:03.161]and then one in May of this year,
- [00:25:05.229]so we're getting more rain
- [00:25:07.645]in these heavy, intense rainstorms.
- [00:25:11.661]This creates all kinds of design issues.
- [00:25:13.705]Storm sewers, et cetera, flooding and so forth,
- [00:25:17.745]so this is a significant issue too with the future
- [00:25:20.833]and you're seeing this, not just in the United States,
- [00:25:22.853]but in other areas as well.
- [00:25:25.037]Changes in the frequency of extreme events,
- [00:25:27.309]this is from Munich RE,
- [00:25:29.237]largest reinsurance firm in the world,
- [00:25:31.513]looking at loss events in the US
- [00:25:33.441]from 1980 through 2015
- [00:25:36.901]and they're divided into different categories,
- [00:25:38.989]geophysical, loss events, so tsunamis, earthquakes and so on
- [00:25:43.401]and you wouldn't expect, those are physical events.
- [00:25:46.373]You wouldn't expect a trend necessarily in those,
- [00:25:49.185]so highly variable from year to year.
- [00:25:51.485]Then you have meteorological events,
- [00:25:52.876]hydrological events, and then you have climate,
- [00:25:56.245]climatological vents, such as drought
- [00:25:58.129]and extreme temperature, heat waves and so on
- [00:26:00.981]and you see this tremendous increase
- [00:26:04.373]and so, one of the issues that we always have
- [00:26:07.577]as climate scientists is to what degree
- [00:26:10.409]was the 2012 drought the result
- [00:26:13.617]of normal climate variability
- [00:26:16.353]versus how did climate change play into this?
- [00:26:21.509]There have been studies that
- [00:26:22.901]have looked at things like that.
- [00:26:24.089]Super storm Sandy, for example.
- [00:26:25.781]To what extent do climate change
- [00:26:27.733]add to the impacts 'cause of higher surge levels,
- [00:26:30.889]in terms of the water and coming to shore and so forth
- [00:26:34.721]as a result of winds?
- [00:26:36.785]The California drought that's been
- [00:26:38.383]going on now for five, six years,
- [00:26:40.703]to what extent is climate change playing a role?
- [00:26:43.583]So it's hard to sort of figure out
- [00:26:45.047]how climate change is affecting that,
- [00:26:46.787]but they are showing for these extreme events
- [00:26:49.271]that climate change is making things worse,
- [00:26:51.871]so it's not that the 2012 drought
- [00:26:53.939]might not have occurred anyway,
- [00:26:55.447]but if you look at the highest
- [00:26:57.259]temperature stress days that we had,
- [00:26:59.675]this was probably exacerbated by the fact
- [00:27:03.179]that climate change is occurring
- [00:27:04.807]and you're having this increase in temperatures.
- [00:27:06.431]I'll talk about that a little bit more as we move forward.
- [00:27:10.427]So, what is the climate change science?
- [00:27:15.922]One of the things that deniers of climate change will say
- [00:27:18.825]is that, "Well, climates have always changed."
- [00:27:21.334]That's true, they do change.
- [00:27:23.446]They change over long timescales,
- [00:27:25.210]so we have ice ages, we have warm periods and so forth,
- [00:27:28.461]but these types of changes usually occur
- [00:27:30.642]over thousands of years
- [00:27:34.614]and they're due to things like
- [00:27:35.890]variations in the Earth's orbit,
- [00:27:37.578]variation in the energy from the sun.
- [00:27:41.248]Obviously, volcanic eruptions can put a lot of debris
- [00:27:43.988]and gases into the atmosphere
- [00:27:46.404]that have a cooling effect,
- [00:27:47.860]but these are the large-scale volcanic eruptions,
- [00:27:50.527]like Pinatubo and so forth in 1991.
- [00:27:54.894]Things like El Nino,
- [00:27:58.306]these things have an affect on climate,
- [00:28:00.259]in terms of the short-term,
- [00:28:01.882]but also in terms of longer-term changes,
- [00:28:04.414]so there are these natural forces
- [00:28:05.946]that have occurred in the past.
- [00:28:07.735]They're occurring today and they're gonna
- [00:28:09.174]continue to occur in the future.
- [00:28:11.798]What we're talking about are human-induced forces
- [00:28:16.875]or anthropogenic changes,
- [00:28:18.870]so as an example, one, some people will say,
- [00:28:22.098]deniers will say, "Well, we're getting less,
- [00:28:24.374]"are we getting more energy from the sun?
- [00:28:26.578]"That's why global temperatures are going up."
- [00:28:28.786]But if you look at fuller radiance
- [00:28:31.618]over this period from 1880 up to current,
- [00:28:34.914]you can see there's actually been a decline
- [00:28:36.726]in more recent years while temperatures continue to go up,
- [00:28:40.162]so changes in solar energy
- [00:28:42.462]and how much we're getting from the sun,
- [00:28:44.366]that's not an explanation for
- [00:28:46.338]the increase in global temperatures.
- [00:28:48.826]So these anthropogenic changes
- [00:28:50.774]are these changes in greenhouse gas
- [00:28:52.562]concentrations in the atmosphere.
- [00:28:54.094]We hear the most about carbon dioxide,
- [00:28:56.370]but there's methane and other gases as well.
- [00:28:59.550]Changes in aerosol particles in the atmosphere,
- [00:29:02.014]related to fire, smoke and so on,
- [00:29:04.590]that are occurring on a global scale
- [00:29:06.750]and then also on a global scale,
- [00:29:08.490]we have changes in land use,
- [00:29:10.162]dramatic changes in land use.
- [00:29:12.254]I mean, almost all areas of the earth
- [00:29:14.042]have been disturbed in one way or another by humans.
- [00:29:17.594]Here you see an extreme example
- [00:29:19.242]with center pivot systems and so on,
- [00:29:21.494]so this changes the albedo of the earth.
- [00:29:23.354]It changes the reflectivity of sunlight and so forth
- [00:29:26.326]and so, this has an impact on climate as well
- [00:29:29.970]at more of a micro-scale or at a meso-scale,
- [00:29:35.355]so I'll talk more about the
- [00:29:37.187]greenhouse gases here as we move forward.
- [00:29:39.603]So, just to refresh from your high school science class,
- [00:29:44.179]composition of the atmosphere is mostly nitrogen and oxygen,
- [00:29:48.499]so carbon dioxide and other trace gases
- [00:29:50.771]make up 1% or so of the gases in the atmosphere.
- [00:29:56.599]These are referred to as greenhouse gases and so on,
- [00:30:00.595]so we have carbon dioxide, we have methane,
- [00:30:02.847]nitrous oxide, water vapor and some others.
- [00:30:07.307]These are critical because these are the ones
- [00:30:10.163]that trap heat in the atmosphere
- [00:30:13.971]and allow earth, or allow life on earth
- [00:30:17.291]to exist as we know it today,
- [00:30:19.799]so without these greenhouse gases,
- [00:30:22.095]the earth's surface temperature would be about
- [00:30:23.767]57 degrees cooler than it is.
- [00:30:27.183]So these greenhouse gases are essential
- [00:30:30.595]for the climate that we have on the earth's surface,
- [00:30:33.684]so they are the heat regulators for the earth.
- [00:30:37.096]So if we increase the concentration
- [00:30:38.884]of these in the atmosphere,
- [00:30:40.348]we're increasing the capacity of the earth to retain heat
- [00:30:46.384]and so, that's the critical factor.
- [00:30:48.728]So, you see carbon dioxide increased.
- [00:30:51.608]This is just going from about the mid-1970s,
- [00:30:55.860]the increase in methane.
- [00:30:57.784]Gale Erickson's gonna be here this afternoon,
- [00:31:01.057]talk a little bit about methane, nitrous oxide and so forth,
- [00:31:04.585]so we said this increase in these
- [00:31:06.445]greenhouse gases within the atmosphere.
- [00:31:09.809]So basically, you hear about the greenhouse effect.
- [00:31:13.293]Well, if we have the same amount of energy
- [00:31:14.849]coming in from the sun that we have
- [00:31:16.265]going back out into space, then we have a stable climate,
- [00:31:21.073]variable, but stable,
- [00:31:23.465]but what happens with the change
- [00:31:25.833]in the concentration of greenhouse gases
- [00:31:27.877]in the atmosphere is we enable
- [00:31:29.921]the atmosphere to hold more heat.
- [00:31:32.057]It's like putting a blanket around the earth,
- [00:31:34.285]so this shortwave solar radiation
- [00:31:36.677]that comes in from the sun is,
- [00:31:40.765]essentially, the atmosphere is transparent to that
- [00:31:43.434]and so, it passes through the atmosphere.
- [00:31:45.570]Some of it's reflected by clouds back into space.
- [00:31:48.102]When it strikes the earth's surface,
- [00:31:49.866]it's absorbed and it's re-radiated as infrared radiation,
- [00:31:54.882]long-wave radiation, and when that energy
- [00:31:58.038]is re-radiated into the atmosphere,
- [00:32:01.474]the atmosphere is no longer transparent to it,
- [00:32:04.354]so it captures that heat and it
- [00:32:06.466]holds it for a period of time.
- [00:32:08.507]So, as we increase the concentration
- [00:32:11.155]of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere,
- [00:32:12.987]we increase the capacity of the atmosphere
- [00:32:14.871]to retain heat and that's why
- [00:32:16.660]we're seeing this increase in temperature.
- [00:32:20.371]So if you look over longer timescales,
- [00:32:23.507]and we can go back 800,000 years,
- [00:32:26.617]carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere
- [00:32:28.685]have generally been below about
- [00:32:30.029]280 to 300 parts per million, going back 800,000 years.
- [00:32:35.326]This graph those back 400,000 years.
- [00:32:39.204]At the beginning of the Industrial Revolution,
- [00:32:43.292]concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere
- [00:32:45.564]was about 280 parts per million
- [00:32:49.109]and you see what has happened
- [00:32:50.179]as a result of the burning of fossil fuels
- [00:32:52.708]is that we've increased this concentration dramatically.
- [00:32:57.398]If we focus in a little bit more
- [00:32:59.350]and this data comes from Mauna Loa
- [00:33:01.626]on the Big Island of Hawaii,
- [00:33:03.250]where they've been measuring CO2
- [00:33:06.246]levels in the atmosphere since 1958
- [00:33:09.890]and so you see this annual pattern
- [00:33:12.958]or inter-annual pattern here in terms of
- [00:33:15.906]carbon dioxide concentrations,
- [00:33:17.834]but in 2013, we hit 400 parts per million
- [00:33:21.338]and then since then, we've been continuing to go up,
- [00:33:25.146]so now we're at somewhere around, I think,
- [00:33:26.910]413 or something parts per million.
- [00:33:30.278]So this is continuing to increase
- [00:33:31.902]and will continue to increase to 500,
- [00:33:34.390]to 550, to 600, this is outside of
- [00:33:37.546]the range of anything that we've experienced in the past,
- [00:33:40.634]so the impact of this on climate and on people
- [00:33:44.490]that are dependent upon that climate is really dramatic,
- [00:33:47.716]so if you plot CO2 concentrations over time
- [00:33:50.528]going back to 1880 again,
- [00:33:53.196]along with global average temperature,
- [00:33:57.052]you can see the correlation between these
- [00:34:00.512]and correlation doesn't necessarily mean cause and effect,
- [00:34:03.368]but in this case, yes, it does.
- [00:34:05.876]So, this change in concentrations of
- [00:34:11.030]carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
- [00:34:12.586]is really, really important in terms of
- [00:34:14.302]explaining this change in global mean temperature.
- [00:34:18.786]So, separating human from natural causes,
- [00:34:22.594]so we use these computer models
- [00:34:25.658]and Clint is a computer modeler, climate modeler,
- [00:34:30.974]so he can speak more about this,
- [00:34:32.858]but what you have on this graph
- [00:34:34.666]is you have here global mean temperature in the black line
- [00:34:38.662]and if we run these computer models
- [00:34:40.286]and we hold CO2 constant in these models,
- [00:34:43.886]so we don't let that increase,
- [00:34:46.394]you get a pattern that's shown here by the green.
- [00:34:52.058]The only way we can essentially duplicate
- [00:34:57.538]the rising temperature that we've seen
- [00:35:00.002]is to run these models and put in the
- [00:35:03.554]carbon dioxide concentrations as they are changing
- [00:35:06.550]and then you see that the predictions in the model
- [00:35:11.053]tend to parallel what we see in terms of
- [00:35:13.769]actual observed temperatures.
- [00:35:18.203]So, projections for Nebraska.
- [00:35:20.295]Well, when we, when the modelers run these models,
- [00:35:25.287]the big unknown, I mean, they have
- [00:35:27.259]a pretty good understanding of climate science
- [00:35:29.119]and how things are working in the atmosphere,
- [00:35:31.227]physics of the atmosphere and so forth,
- [00:35:34.294]what we don't know and I'm not a climate modeler,
- [00:35:38.078]but what we don't know is what are going to be
- [00:35:39.910]the future concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere,
- [00:35:42.582]20 years from now, 40, 60, 100 years
- [00:35:45.762]because that depends upon what society
- [00:35:47.878]decides to do about this problem
- [00:35:51.450]and so, they run the models with different scenarios
- [00:35:55.470]of future carbon dioxide concentrations
- [00:36:00.182]and so, the red line here represents
- [00:36:02.178]essentially business as usual.
- [00:36:04.502]So, we just keep doing what we're doing
- [00:36:05.894]and we don't really make any changes,
- [00:36:07.798]but if we make some significant changes
- [00:36:09.610]where we actually try to reduce
- [00:36:11.654]this curve showing CO2 concentrations
- [00:36:16.970]or flatten it or even more,
- [00:36:20.826]then we're gonna have a different future
- [00:36:25.238]and so, one of the conclusions in our report
- [00:36:29.486]was the fact that the largest uncertainty
- [00:36:31.670]in projecting climate change into the future
- [00:36:35.198]is knowing what this level of CO2
- [00:36:39.562]and other greenhouse gas concentrations
- [00:36:41.582]are gonna be in the future.
- [00:36:42.790]We just don't know that,
- [00:36:44.786]so that's a huge uncertainty
- [00:36:47.226]and so, that's usually why,
- [00:36:48.734]if you've read some of the report,
- [00:36:50.454]they talk about temperature changes in ranges
- [00:36:53.059]and people will say, "Well, the reason they're
- [00:36:55.336]"giving a range is because the fact that
- [00:36:58.888]"the models are not very good."
- [00:37:00.860]The fact is they're giving a range
- [00:37:02.498]because we don't know what future
- [00:37:03.762]greenhouse gas concentrations
- [00:37:05.178]or carbon dioxide concentration are going to be
- [00:37:08.822]20, 30, 50, 60 years into the future,
- [00:37:11.726]so that's an important issue.
- [00:37:14.606]So, pulling information from the
- [00:37:16.950]National Climate Assessment report
- [00:37:18.622]and looking at what changes have
- [00:37:20.202]occurred in Nebraska already,
- [00:37:23.823]projections for Nebraska.
- [00:37:27.191]Projected increases range from
- [00:37:30.323]four to five degrees Fahrenheit
- [00:37:32.763]towards the last quarter of the century,
- [00:37:35.803]which we think of as being a long way out,
- [00:37:37.707]but I remember when there was a computer scare
- [00:37:39.611]and we were changing to the year 2000
- [00:37:42.075]and everybody was panicked
- [00:37:43.791]and it's hard to believe that was 16 years ago,
- [00:37:46.023]so time moves pretty quick.
- [00:37:48.019]So four to five degrees with a low emission scenario
- [00:37:53.055]and then, eight to nine degrees
- [00:37:54.799]with a high emission scenario.
- [00:37:57.215]So just think about Nebraska's climate
- [00:37:59.023]with an eight to nine degree increase
- [00:38:01.603]in our mean temperature.
- [00:38:05.663]So again, the range is largely associated with
- [00:38:07.916]uncertainties in terms of where future emissions
- [00:38:10.400]are gonna have us by the last quarter of this century.
- [00:38:16.068]One of the other big concerns for Nebraska,
- [00:38:18.388]being an agricultural state,
- [00:38:21.524]but also relates to questions of human health and so on,
- [00:38:24.772]is a projected high temperature increase
- [00:38:27.420]in the number of stress days,
- [00:38:29.256]so days over 100 degrees Fahrenheit.
- [00:38:32.018]So, the low emission scenarios
- [00:38:36.618]indicate a 13 to 16 additional days
- [00:38:40.214]and the higher emission scenario,
- [00:38:41.886]which is, that's what we are on,
- [00:38:43.838]is this business as usual scenario,
- [00:38:47.438]is looking at 22 to 25 additional days
- [00:38:51.570]over 100 degrees Fahrenheit during our growing season.
- [00:38:58.166]The number of warm nights increasing.
- [00:39:01.000]We're already seeing that, both in winter
- [00:39:03.324]as is in summer, and this has implications
- [00:39:05.948]for insects, over wintering of pests,
- [00:39:08.804]diseases, and all kinds of things,
- [00:39:11.660]as well as energy demand.
- [00:39:15.141]Then, the frost-free season continues to increase.
- [00:39:20.273]There's a seat up here in front and there's one over here.
- [00:39:25.937]So, frost-free season continues to increase
- [00:39:27.933]by an additional two weeks,
- [00:39:29.817]so we already talked about the fact
- [00:39:31.095]that the average for the Great Plains,
- [00:39:32.555]which were around 10 days for Nebraska,
- [00:39:35.112]five to 25 days, so an additional two weeks
- [00:39:39.175]lengthening of the growing season in Nebraska
- [00:39:41.635]and how we're going to take that into account
- [00:39:43.888]in terms of our agriculture, energy demand and so on.
- [00:39:48.856]So if you look at the low emission scenario,
- [00:39:51.572]versus the high emission scenario
- [00:39:53.359]in terms of temperature projections,
- [00:39:55.614]again, that one being the business as usual,
- [00:39:58.262]which is what we're on at the moment.
- [00:39:59.934]See, if we actually do something about
- [00:40:02.210]greenhouse gas emissions, so we actually are mitigating
- [00:40:05.320]some of the future warming, you see quite a difference
- [00:40:08.045]between these two maps, in terms of the amount of warming,
- [00:40:10.509]the four to five versus the eight to nine
- [00:40:13.457]degrees that I talked about previously.
- [00:40:16.453]If you remember the, just to give you an example,
- [00:40:19.285]if you remember the 2012 drought,
- [00:40:22.049]so we're only four years before the present,
- [00:40:28.853]Nebraska, of course, was in the bullseye
- [00:40:30.781]of this very, very severe drought
- [00:40:33.101]and this map is produced by the
- [00:40:34.613]National Drought Mitigation Center
- [00:40:36.122]here at the University of Nebraska
- [00:40:37.513]working with Noah and US Department of Agriculture.
- [00:40:40.929]So this map comes out weekly
- [00:40:43.109]and you see this huge drought area
- [00:40:46.941]and if you consider all the different
- [00:40:50.078]types of, or not types of drought,
- [00:40:51.818]but the severity levels for drought,
- [00:40:54.490]really, two thirds of the United States
- [00:40:56.302]was in drought in 2012.
- [00:41:00.434]So one of the characteristics of drought,
- [00:41:02.570]people think about drought as being a dry situation,
- [00:41:05.706]but another characteristic of drought
- [00:41:07.306]is higher temperatures, partially because of the fact
- [00:41:10.162]you have less rainfall, you have more sunshine and so on.
- [00:41:13.250]You have warmer temperatures and so on.
- [00:41:16.106]So if you look at a map of the number of days
- [00:41:19.334]over 100 degrees in 2012 across the United States
- [00:41:24.118]and you look at Nebraska, I pulled out a few of these.
- [00:41:26.626]McCook had 37 degrees over 100 degrees.
- [00:41:30.178]Lincoln had 17 days over 100 degrees
- [00:41:33.382]and Lincoln averages about five per year, they had 17.
- [00:41:38.446]McCook averages about 11, they had 37.
- [00:41:41.772]So, if you think about the projections
- [00:41:44.271]in terms of high temperature stress days into the future,
- [00:41:48.448]the bottom line is by the last quarter of this century,
- [00:41:53.532]2012 could be a relatively average year
- [00:41:57.900]and that's a pretty scary, scary picture
- [00:42:00.128]for all the sectors, not just agriculture.
- [00:42:04.305]So, this is a picture I put in.
- [00:42:06.441]Ken, we were talking about wind energy earlier,
- [00:42:08.997]so I happened to run across this slide the other day
- [00:42:11.061]and I thought, well, okay,
- [00:42:12.549]it doesn't apply to Nebraska
- [00:42:13.757]'cause we don't have many of these,
- [00:42:15.149]but Iowa does, Kansas does, and so on.
- [00:42:18.261]So one of the other things, you know,
- [00:42:20.087]when you talk to farmers, they'll say,
- [00:42:21.410]"Well, I irrigate, so if we have more droughts,
- [00:42:25.146]"we have higher temperatures, I'm just gonna irrigate more."
- [00:42:27.934]But then there's the issue about
- [00:42:29.005]the availability of groundwater.
- [00:42:31.878]There's gonna be less recharge
- [00:42:33.318]because of more evaporation,
- [00:42:35.758]more erratic rainfall patterns and so forth
- [00:42:39.866]and if there's more demand on the aquifer,
- [00:42:42.094]it's gonna cause declining groundwater levels,
- [00:42:45.553]so this is a map showing the groundwater changes
- [00:42:48.689]in Nebraska from the spring of 2012
- [00:42:51.265]to the spring of 2013, so this is after one year of drought
- [00:42:55.957]where you've had a decline in the water table
- [00:42:57.885]of anywhere from five to 20 or more feet in one year.
- [00:43:03.273]Now, the groundwater levels in Nebraska have recovered,
- [00:43:06.173]but this was a one year drought.
- [00:43:09.705]If we had a two, three, four year drought
- [00:43:12.769]like California's been going through,
- [00:43:14.765]the Southwest, the South Central US,
- [00:43:17.321]multiple years of drought
- [00:43:18.805]and that's certainly is characteristic
- [00:43:20.081]of the climate of this area.
- [00:43:21.637]There's no reason why another Dust Bowl-type drought
- [00:43:24.422]or '50s-type drought wouldn't,
- [00:43:26.421]will not occur again in the future
- [00:43:28.087]and this is actually being projected.
- [00:43:30.387]This is a huge, huge issue.
- [00:43:32.267]Consecutive years of drought
- [00:43:33.615]and what that's gonna do to groundwater
- [00:43:35.075]and therefore, the potential for irrigation.
- [00:43:38.488]Precipitation, the trend for precipitation,
- [00:43:41.127]we've seen and I've shown you maps earlier,
- [00:43:43.031]this trend will continue with maybe more precipitation
- [00:43:46.211]in the Northern Plains.
- [00:43:47.883]Decrease in the Southern Plains.
- [00:43:50.320]Little change in winter and spring
- [00:43:52.271]precipitation in Nebraska.
- [00:43:54.339]Small projected changes in summer and fall in Nebraska.
- [00:44:00.259]In general, the models are showing,
- [00:44:01.768]maybe a drying trend for the Central Great Plain states
- [00:44:06.459]and there are projections of mega-droughts
- [00:44:09.685]in the near future in the Great Plains region,
- [00:44:13.401]so a mega-drought is like a drought of 10 years or more.
- [00:44:17.953]This increase in heavy precipitation that we've seen,
- [00:44:20.413]this trend's going to continue
- [00:44:22.529]and so again, that raises issues for urban areas
- [00:44:25.521]and flooding and all kinds of issues.
- [00:44:30.094]So we don't know, it's much harder to predict
- [00:44:32.210]what's going to happen with regards to precipitation
- [00:44:34.834]and the distribution and how that
- [00:44:36.178]may change from season to season,
- [00:44:39.360]but when you consider the increase in temperature,
- [00:44:41.916]even if we have a slight increase in precipitation,
- [00:44:44.748]it's going to be ineffective because the temperature's
- [00:44:46.860]gonna overwhelm that and so,
- [00:44:48.856]we're gonna be losing more of
- [00:44:50.620]that moisture to the atmosphere.
- [00:44:51.986]Soil moisture expected to decrease.
- [00:44:54.287]Flood magnitudes, we've already seen
- [00:44:56.354]an increase in flood magnitudes
- [00:44:58.050]along the Eastern Great Plains
- [00:44:59.858]associated with these high-intensity rainfall events.
- [00:45:04.690]This is expected to continue into the future.
- [00:45:07.939]Snow cover is a huge issue.
- [00:45:09.518]There's a lot of variability in snow cover,
- [00:45:11.562]but generally what we've seen is snow cover
- [00:45:14.234]decreasing in the Western United States,
- [00:45:16.486]decreasing in those areas that feed the Platte,
- [00:45:19.178]the Missouri River and so forth.
- [00:45:20.687]This year's an exception, but this reduced snow pack's
- [00:45:24.146]gonna mean less surface water flow across the state
- [00:45:27.910]and therefore, you know, the users of that water,
- [00:45:31.718]whether it's urban areas or agriculture,
- [00:45:33.994]this is going to have an impact as well.
- [00:45:36.711]If you look at some of the model output
- [00:45:39.499]predicting this sort of drying trend
- [00:45:42.655]for the Western United States and the Great Plains,
- [00:45:44.907]you can see a dramatic change here
- [00:45:49.111]across that particular region,
- [00:45:51.271]if you project it out towards the end of the century.
- [00:45:55.079]So, takeaway points.
- [00:45:58.796]Assessing the implications, or the impact
- [00:46:01.932]of these projected changes in Nebraska,
- [00:46:05.276]obviously the consequences depend upon
- [00:46:07.204]the sensitivity of key sectors.
- [00:46:09.456]So, the sensitivity of one sector versus another
- [00:46:13.288]is going to be variable and so,
- [00:46:15.680]some can adapt more readily than others
- [00:46:18.788]and so, we need to understand that.
- [00:46:22.968]How proactive these sectors are in adapting to changes.
- [00:46:26.404]Ronnie mentioned that farmers are already adapting
- [00:46:29.795]to the changes in climate that they see.
- [00:46:33.115]They will continue to adapt,
- [00:46:35.439]but one of the outcomes and one of the conclusions
- [00:46:37.575]of the National Climate Assessment report
- [00:46:39.687]is the changes that are projected for the future
- [00:46:42.383]are outside of the range that have anything
- [00:46:44.423]they've had to adapt to in the past
- [00:46:46.931]and so, dealing with these gradual changes
- [00:46:49.603]that we've been seeing is going to be
- [00:46:52.111]much more difficult and is gonna require
- [00:46:54.035]new innovations and technology and so forth.
- [00:46:59.306]Availability of groundwater to respond
- [00:47:01.166]to this increased demand that I just mentioned
- [00:47:04.322]and also mitigation.
- [00:47:06.250]What are we going to do to lessen the amount
- [00:47:08.062]of warming that is being projected to occur
- [00:47:11.058]through the reduced reliance on fossil fuels
- [00:47:13.426]and also the development of alternative energy sources?
- [00:47:17.766]Again, emphasizing this point that
- [00:47:20.622]even with, you know, we don't exactly know
- [00:47:22.714]what's gonna happen to precipitation.
- [00:47:24.710]It'll be a slight increase, maybe a slight decrease.
- [00:47:27.079]There's gonna be a change in terms of
- [00:47:29.050]distribution between the different seasons,
- [00:47:30.910]but it's gonna be overwhelmed by these
- [00:47:32.838]increasing temperatures and increasing
- [00:47:35.206]high temperature stress days
- [00:47:37.850]and finally, that it's really important,
- [00:47:40.962]while individuals can do a lot of things,
- [00:47:42.842]governments need to provide leadership on this issue
- [00:47:46.100]and that, I think, is what the
- [00:47:47.394]climate change action plan is about,
- [00:47:49.876]is the government needs, both the federal government
- [00:47:52.476]and the national government needs to set a tone,
- [00:47:55.612]need to say that these are our goals.
- [00:47:57.375]These are things we need to achieve
- [00:47:59.327]and then, work within the different agencies
- [00:48:03.948]and with the private sector to implement this.
- [00:48:08.475]Obviously, universities have tremendous research capacity,
- [00:48:12.027]tremendous capacity in terms of outreach,
- [00:48:14.419]building public awareness, which is important,
- [00:48:17.507]so where do we go from here?
- [00:48:18.783]Obviously, the University of Nebraska
- [00:48:20.387]and other institutions within the state
- [00:48:23.220]can help a lot in preparing for and adapting to changes.
- [00:48:27.331]Many grassroots organizations have been
- [00:48:29.303]very actively engaged thus far
- [00:48:31.787]in this process of trying to build awareness, interest.
- [00:48:36.663]Come in, Chuck.
- [00:48:38.582]There's a chair up here if you don't mind
- [00:48:39.958]sitting in the front row.
- [00:48:41.105]Sit up front?
- [00:48:42.226]You get to sit by me (laughs).
- [00:48:45.169]Okay, Chuck was in here earlier.
- [00:48:47.237]Chuck is the Dean of Extension,
- [00:48:49.189]so we all introduced ourselves,
- [00:48:50.976]so now they know who you are, okay.
- [00:48:54.761]So, grassroots organizations have really taken up this cause
- [00:48:57.685]and are trying to build awareness,
- [00:48:59.265]educate the public about this and do various things.
- [00:49:03.561]State agencies, NRDs, communities,
- [00:49:06.601]obviously need to do a lot more
- [00:49:08.645]in terms of engaging in this process,
- [00:49:11.129]working within their jurisdiction and so on.
- [00:49:14.545]Working together across state agencies
- [00:49:16.936]is critically important.
- [00:49:19.213]NRDs, which are tasked with the job
- [00:49:21.233]of managing our groundwater resources in the future,
- [00:49:24.875]today and in the future and so far, critically important.
- [00:49:29.823]So, a Nebraska action, climate action plan
- [00:49:32.679]is an important step to mobilize,
- [00:49:35.023]I think, a lot of these resources that are out there,
- [00:49:37.739]the university resources, but the resources
- [00:49:40.155]of state agencies, grassroots organizations,
- [00:49:42.823]all of these stakeholders that participated
- [00:49:45.055]in our roundtables and even more than those that,
- [00:49:49.489]and we can, you know, I mentioned earlier
- [00:49:51.441]that Nebraska's really considered to be a leader
- [00:49:54.225]and so, people in D.C. want to use Nebraska
- [00:49:56.825]as an example of how you can build,
- [00:50:00.913]sort of awareness and expertise
- [00:50:03.465]to move this issue forward, in terms of discussion,
- [00:50:06.765]but we can learn an awful lot from other states
- [00:50:09.245]that have gone through the development
- [00:50:10.536]of climate action plans and also, other municipalities.
- [00:50:14.907]There are many of these that we can draw from
- [00:50:16.879]and I know Ken Winston's been looking at some of
- [00:50:18.763]these plans from other states.
- [00:50:22.359]Kind of a final sentence in our 2014 report
- [00:50:26.539]was that action now is more preferable
- [00:50:28.491]and cost-effective than reaction later.
- [00:50:31.255]So, the quicker we get onto this,
- [00:50:32.927]the much better we are going to be able
- [00:50:34.319]to deal with the issue as we move forward,
- [00:50:37.407]but this action requires both adapting to changes
- [00:50:40.886]as well as mitigating as much of the
- [00:50:45.073]future warming as possible through
- [00:50:46.981]reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and so forth.
- [00:50:51.089]So, with that, I will stop.
- [00:50:54.713]I think I'm right on time, so we break in 15 minutes,
- [00:50:58.033]so if people have questions, I'd be glad to
- [00:51:00.841]try to answer your questions.
- [00:51:02.445]Thanks for your attention.
- [00:51:03.905]Okay.
- [00:51:04.738]This is one that my staff and I were
- [00:51:06.636]sitting and talking one day.
- [00:51:08.407]It was right after the big storm
- [00:51:11.171]in Lincoln a week or two ago
- [00:51:13.679]and there was hail, you know, huge chunks of hail.
- [00:51:20.319]Well, when I was 17, which is almost 60 years ago,
- [00:51:24.987]55 years ago, we had a a hailstorm in Lincoln
- [00:51:28.936]and I walked out in the street
- [00:51:30.724]and there were hailstones this big
- [00:51:35.088]and that was 50 years ago.
- [00:51:37.852]So, can we say that the storm a week ago in Lincoln
- [00:51:44.492]was caused by climate change?
- [00:51:46.396]'Cause I saw the same thing 50 years ago.
- [00:51:49.300]Well, no, we can't.
- [00:51:51.296]So the question is, did climate change
- [00:51:53.340]in any way exacerbate that particular storm?
- [00:51:57.172]Clint, do you want to...
- [00:51:59.096]We don't know for a single event like that.
- [00:52:01.304]We're gonna have thunderstorms and we had thunderstorms,
- [00:52:03.323]you know, hundreds of years ago.
- [00:52:05.739]We're gonna have thunderstorms
- [00:52:07.131]hundreds of years in the future
- [00:52:09.455]and we're gonna have hail in some of those thunderstorms.
- [00:52:12.703]Sometimes, it's gonna be big
- [00:52:14.119]and sometimes it's not gonna be big.
- [00:52:15.771]You know, it's just part of, that's weather.
- [00:52:18.603]We're gonna have weather no matter how the climate changes.
- [00:52:22.223]In this part of the country, part of that weather
- [00:52:24.687]for the foreseeable past and the foreseeable future
- [00:52:28.215]is going to include thunderstorms with hail.
- [00:52:32.255]So as I mentioned, it's the frequency of these things
- [00:52:35.807]that we're trying to get a handle on.
- [00:52:38.223]If these things are occurring much more frequently,
- [00:52:41.335]then you have to kind of take a look at that
- [00:52:43.515]and is that being driven by something
- [00:52:45.955]in the atmosphere, some of the changes that we're seeing
- [00:52:48.487]related to climate change?
- [00:52:50.483]By the way, we've been joined by Senator Pansing Brooks.
- [00:52:54.771]Hi.
- [00:52:55.955]You're one of those that snuck in as well.
- [00:52:58.207](laughs)
- [00:52:59.279]Yeah, John has a question.
- [00:53:00.555]Along the lines of when we were young,
- [00:53:03.270]I grew up in the city of Pittsburgh
- [00:53:06.358]and there were days where the streetlights never went off,
- [00:53:09.678]that we had 110 consecutive miles
- [00:53:11.998]of steel mills billowing up smoke.
- [00:53:14.670]That's all gone.
- [00:53:16.458]I remember buses that used to
- [00:53:18.386]spew a whole bunch of Diesel fuel-smelling stuff.
- [00:53:22.890]We don't have that anymore,
- [00:53:24.746]so looks like we're making improvements and improvements
- [00:53:27.733]and then I look at this chart and it's going straight up.
- [00:53:30.361]As far as greenhouse gases, where are they comin' from?
- [00:53:35.261]Well, they're coming from all--
- [00:53:36.537]But it's hard for me to reconcile
- [00:53:37.836]what, that the accomplishes, the accomplishments
- [00:53:41.410]that we've made as far as cleaning up,
- [00:53:44.660]the rivers in Pittsburgh used to catch on fire.
- [00:53:47.608]They're now catching trout and walleye
- [00:53:51.440]at The Point in Pittsburgh.
- [00:53:52.963]Are they eating each other?
- [00:53:54.175]That's what I was gonna ask (laughs).
- [00:53:56.268](everyone laughs)
- [00:53:59.032]But, I mean, I look at so much improvement
- [00:54:02.004]we have made in the environment
- [00:54:04.000]and we've really concentrated on cleaning air up,
- [00:54:07.996]water up, and all the rest of that stuff
- [00:54:10.016]and all of a sudden, wow, we've got this big crisis,
- [00:54:13.128]so I'm thinking, where is this coming from?
- [00:54:16.102]And obviously, once we figure out where it's coming from,
- [00:54:19.634]maybe we can do something about it.
- [00:54:21.698]I just look at us getting better and better.
- [00:54:24.162]We got scrubbers on.
- [00:54:26.086]I go buy the, what is it, (mumbles)
- [00:54:30.870]the PowerPoint, yeah.
- [00:54:32.614]There's nothing coming out of that.
- [00:54:34.286]I mean, I can't see anything
- [00:54:35.910]where I used to when I was a kid, would see
- [00:54:37.678]billowing smoke and soot
- [00:54:39.977]and all that kind of stuff going out.
- [00:54:41.837]I'm breathing out CO2 now
- [00:54:43.601]and you don't see it either.
- [00:54:44.925]Well, maybe that's where I need to be.
- [00:54:49.453]I think, you know, a lot of this is invisible
- [00:54:51.544]to the public in the sense that,
- [00:54:53.999]you know, CO2 and so on, but all the sectors,
- [00:54:56.845]transportation, energy, in all of these sectors,
- [00:55:00.052]agriculture, are contributing to
- [00:55:02.572]this greenhouse gas increase that
- [00:55:04.264]we're seeing in the atmosphere.
- [00:55:05.728]What we cleaned up is a lot of the pollution
- [00:55:07.748]and the air quality, water quality has really improved.
- [00:55:11.164]You know, it's really scary, not to get too political,
- [00:55:13.600]but really scary when Ted Cruz, for example,
- [00:55:16.119]in his campaign is saying,
- [00:55:17.723]"Well, if I'm elected President,
- [00:55:18.927]"I'm gonna do away with EPA."
- [00:55:21.092]Well, those are the regulations that
- [00:55:23.252]are cleaning up our air, cleaning up our water.
- [00:55:25.572]Do we wanna go back to rivers catching on fire?
- [00:55:28.568]I mean, that's really what we're talking about
- [00:55:30.776]and so that's a huge concern,
- [00:55:33.816]so there are a lot of sources that,
- [00:55:35.604]Clint, did you wanna--
- [00:55:36.744]Yeah, can I?
- [00:55:37.812]If you look back at one of the maps that Don showed,
- [00:55:41.038]which had the trends in temperature
- [00:55:43.058]over the United States and different regions,
- [00:55:45.218]if you look carefully, you'll notice that in the Southeast
- [00:55:48.286]and especially over the Tennessee Valley,
- [00:55:52.483]it's still showing a slight cooling trend,
- [00:55:55.779]but it's coming out of that now
- [00:55:57.659]and part of the reason for that we feel
- [00:55:59.563]is that during the, up until the Clean Air Act
- [00:56:03.767]and then a little after
- [00:56:04.879]'cause it was grandfathering tin,
- [00:56:07.649]they were burning coal that had a lot of sulfur
- [00:56:10.806]and a lot of sulfur particulates in the atmosphere
- [00:56:13.917]that created basically, sulfur clouds
- [00:56:17.170]and massive ray problems, from what I remember
- [00:56:19.397]from way back then and those types of
- [00:56:23.464]particles coming out actually end up
- [00:56:26.252]collecting sunlight, I mean, causing heat in the air,
- [00:56:30.456]so it's not till recently, that they cleaned up those
- [00:56:33.782]and now it's coming out of that flume
- [00:56:35.826]and showing the warming that we're seeing now in that area.
- [00:56:40.330]So there are, you know, the aerosols
- [00:56:44.046]that make up the smoke you see
- [00:56:47.342]and the stuff coming out of power plants,
- [00:56:49.434]they have different impacts than the CO2,
- [00:56:52.894]which mixes in and stays in the atmosphere
- [00:56:55.006]a lot longer than the aerosols.
- [00:56:56.794]The aerosols and the big particulates that cause
- [00:57:00.048]clouds that warm and drain out
- [00:57:02.116]and get washed out relatively quickly.
- [00:57:05.460]Helen, you next.
- [00:57:06.760]Yeah, I was just wondering.
- [00:57:07.944]Do you have ideas on
- [00:57:12.103]mitigation approaches that, that
- [00:57:18.023]would resonate in Nebraska?
- [00:57:22.643]Well, I think, you know, a big one obviously is wind power
- [00:57:26.407]and solar, I mean, both of those.
- [00:57:28.891]We have tremendous resource, in terms of,
- [00:57:30.935]I think we're third in the nation,
- [00:57:32.167]in terms of wind potential.
- [00:57:35.047]Solar, I think we're pretty,
- [00:57:36.675]I mean, we get a lot of sunshine days and so on,
- [00:57:39.531]so there are tremendous opportunities,
- [00:57:42.527]but one of the things we find
- [00:57:44.127]is you're battling against
- [00:57:45.731]the coal industry on those things
- [00:57:47.679]and these public power districts and so on
- [00:57:49.700]that wanna stay with coal and so on,
- [00:57:52.373]which is not a good thing
- [00:57:53.856]in terms of greenhouse gas emissions
- [00:57:55.833]and so, I mean, that's a huge solution
- [00:57:58.385]and one that, I think, Nebraska's gonna start
- [00:58:02.496]hopefully moving forward with more wind energy development,
- [00:58:05.796]but it's just staggering.
- [00:58:06.932]When I drive across Kansas, when I drive across Oklahoma,
- [00:58:10.931]those states, and you see the wind farms that exist
- [00:58:14.667]and then you get to the border of Nebraska
- [00:58:16.667]and you just don't see anything
- [00:58:18.591]and we probably have more wind potential here
- [00:58:20.683]than they have in Oklahoma.
- [00:58:23.143]I think some are in Washington.
- [00:58:24.539]Yeah.
- [00:58:26.349]And not to put you in a sticky spot,
- [00:58:29.253]the legislature, we've done it right on the minute.
- [00:58:31.713](laughs) No, no, it's your comment that,
- [00:58:35.497]are you referencing you think that coal power
- [00:58:37.681]has actually held us back in terms of energy development
- [00:58:40.537]because of what their supposed stated goals are?
- [00:58:45.821]There's a tricky, yeah, thank you.
- [00:58:47.025](everyone laughs)
- [00:58:50.389]The short answer is yes.
- [00:58:51.669]I don't disagree with you.
- [00:58:53.317]No, they, I mean, I,
- [00:58:56.357]several of them attended our
- [00:58:57.473]roundtable that we had on energy
- [00:58:59.914]and so, they were pretty engaged,
- [00:59:01.606]I think, in the conversation,
- [00:59:03.374]but when you keep getting this feedback
- [00:59:08.086]that says we have to stick with what we've done in the past,
- [00:59:12.265]well, we really need to be looking at
- [00:59:14.541]new paradigms for the future
- [00:59:16.145]in wind energy and solar,
- [00:59:18.770]I mean, I think back when the federal government
- [00:59:21.402]was subsidizing solar research and so on
- [00:59:24.534]back in the '70s and then the fossil fuel industry
- [00:59:27.395]got the federal government to pull out the subsidies,
- [00:59:30.439]so that that research wouldn't move forward.
- [00:59:32.271]You think about, well, where would we be today
- [00:59:34.455]in terms of solar, if in fact the federal government
- [00:59:37.611]had been continuing to put resources into that?
- [00:59:41.399]So, we've got a lot of catching up to do.
- [00:59:43.299]Oh, it's trended.
- [00:59:44.507]I think it's a conversation that,
- [00:59:46.507]no, I've had with a number of colleagues
- [00:59:49.223]and just the issues I have with public power,
- [00:59:52.567]the concept of public power.
- [00:59:54.027]Clint?
- [00:59:54.860]Yeah, if you look at,
- [00:59:56.051]Don mentioned, you come across the border,
- [00:59:57.407]you don't see anymore turbine things.
- [00:59:59.291]That's not quite, you come across the border,
- [01:00:00.775]you do see a few along the border, why?
- [01:00:03.051]Because they get in Nebraska and get the electricity out
- [01:00:06.139]to the markets in other states, you know,
- [01:00:08.971]so they're being done by private companies
- [01:00:12.223]to benefit other places using our wind.
- [01:00:14.939]My district has probably more wind,
- [01:00:17.843]actually, towers built than any other, so I'm familiar.
- [01:00:21.418]So, the fact that public power
- [01:00:23.301]has to provide low cost energy is a bit problematic,
- [01:00:29.266]but, you know, I think, one thing that can be done
- [01:00:32.518]is promote commercial ventures.
- [01:00:35.258]If they can get a long-term contract
- [01:00:36.906]in the public power district,
- [01:00:38.206]they could probably build wind energy sites in Nebraska,
- [01:00:43.299]so there are ways to think outside the box a little bit.
- [01:00:48.384]It becomes difficult too because,
- [01:00:52.480]you know, with our technology,
- [01:00:54.080]we build coal-powered plants that last for 40 years
- [01:00:58.236]and so, it's hard to look at closing them
- [01:01:03.682]or re-purposing them because they've been huge investments
- [01:01:07.535]and so, it gets to be a sticky problem.
- [01:01:10.067]I'd just like to respond quickly to John.
- [01:01:12.319]The other point is that we all share
- [01:01:17.103]the same atmosphere on this planet
- [01:01:19.819]and while I think in the United States,
- [01:01:22.139]there's been some success in cutting the amount of CO2,
- [01:01:27.899]in other, in the developing countries,
- [01:01:29.943]China and India and so on,
- [01:01:33.055]there has been just dramatic increases in CO2 production
- [01:01:37.794]and so that's one of the reasons that I think Paris was,
- [01:01:41.114]at least encouraging is those big developing countries
- [01:01:46.062]are now talking about reducing their CO2 as well.
- [01:01:50.078]So, we have to do our part, but the whole world
- [01:01:53.190]is producing more CO2 and that's the problem.
- [01:01:56.284]Well, the other piece of it is that
- [01:01:59.116]they've dramatically decreased the amount of
- [01:02:01.696]other kinds of pollution, but at this point,
- [01:02:04.132]carbon capture from fossil fuel emissions
- [01:02:07.896]is not really, it's not really happening at this point,
- [01:02:12.260]so and I'd be glad to give you some more information.
- [01:02:16.184]We don't have anything to talk about
- [01:02:19.064]to reinforce rain forest depletion,
- [01:02:21.500]the things that are happening
- [01:02:23.592]around the globe with the rain forest.
- [01:02:26.748]Isn't that a part of this--
- [01:02:28.304]That is definitely a part of it.
- [01:02:29.836]I mean, the rain forest, obviously,
- [01:02:32.068]will pull carbon out of the atmosphere
- [01:02:35.640]and then you're destroying huge numbers of these
- [01:02:38.128]and then the only time you burn the trees,
- [01:02:40.404]which then releases the carbon into the atmosphere,
- [01:02:43.608]so you get a double whammy.
- [01:02:45.140]We've got Scott Josiah here from the Forest Service.
- [01:02:49.248]You wanna make a comment related to that?
- [01:02:51.848]Right, I mean, rain forests are great
- [01:02:55.216]cyclers of carbon and so,
- [01:02:58.744]and there's been enormous amounts of deforestation,
- [01:03:01.116]not just in the Amazon, but across Southeast Asia
- [01:03:05.807]and that continues to convert to agriculture in the pasture
- [01:03:09.209]and those new systems of agriculture in pastures
- [01:03:12.805]don't absorb and retain as much carbon,
- [01:03:15.221]so once that carbon gets in the atmosphere,
- [01:03:17.193]it's not being absorbed by trees growing back.
- [01:03:20.165]It's gone, it's up there now.
- [01:03:22.489]So, it's a big concern.
- [01:03:25.794]The bottom line is whether you're going back
- [01:03:28.254]to Dr. Roader's question, what can we do in Nebraska?
- [01:03:31.318]I mean, plant trees.
- [01:03:33.526]From a forester.
- [01:03:34.778](everyone laughs)
- [01:03:35.822]Are you surprised by that answer?
- [01:03:37.078](everyone laughs) We need to plant more trees.
- [01:03:38.363]Yeah, and we, well, I don't know
- [01:03:40.945]whether you're gonna show a slide,
- [01:03:42.549]but yeah, and he's gonna give a talk in a little while,
- [01:03:46.145]and so, the decline in forest in Nebraska
- [01:03:50.400]has really been dramatic.
- [01:03:54.485]Yes, Julie?
- [01:03:56.529]Do you think that
- [01:03:57.925]increasing the amount of grazing land
- [01:04:00.182]or native prairie in the state
- [01:04:04.266]can do the same thing as planting more trees,
- [01:04:07.402]is the question, as much pardon?
- [01:04:10.563]Yeah, but somebody else, maybe, that we have--
- [01:04:15.068]Well, I might make a comment.
- [01:04:16.647]You know, we've looked at some of these,
- [01:04:18.484]I work for NRCS and USDA and we have,
- [01:04:21.383]I'll talk about it later, a building block to,
- [01:04:24.080]within NRCS, they're doing studies,
- [01:04:26.239]looking at, you know, the impact of how many
- [01:04:29.395]and how much carbon is sequestered
- [01:04:31.626]by different practices and it seems,
- [01:04:34.482]you know, if you have cover crops or pasture management,
- [01:04:38.614]all this really does increase the carbon content,
- [01:04:41.654]but when you start planting trees,
- [01:04:43.978]there's a huge gain, so anything,
- [01:04:46.440]you know, repairing areas, windbreaks,
- [01:04:50.507]carefully manage the wood locks, you know.
- [01:04:54.175]If we can promote those, there is a real benefit.
- [01:05:01.110]Is it about break time or you have a question?
- [01:05:03.128]So, no, go 'head and then that'll be
- [01:05:06.057]the last question before we break.
- [01:05:08.609]Well, we've seen a major increase in fracking
- [01:05:12.137]and oil production, particularly in Northern Great Plains
- [01:05:15.877]and as a result, there's been a,
- [01:05:18.429]I think, a lot of burn off of natural gas
- [01:05:21.121]because it was not economically viable to capture that gas.
- [01:05:25.977]As we
- [01:05:31.061]try to transition away from coal,
- [01:05:33.174]are these rational step downs to oil and the natural gas
- [01:05:37.958]and so on instead of assuming that we're
- [01:05:40.558]gonna be able to get to high levels
- [01:05:42.041]of production of wind and solar in the next five, 10 years?
- [01:05:45.689]Or is it really just kind of spitting wind,
- [01:05:49.753]so to speak, no pun intended,
- [01:05:52.909]if we don't immediately try to transition more quickly
- [01:05:55.649]to the truly renewable, the truly carbon neutral methods?
- [01:06:02.777]Well, I think it's rational
- [01:06:06.169]and I know this has been a huge point
- [01:06:09.673]of the Obama administration and moving to more natural gas,
- [01:06:13.205]but natural gas is causing a tremendous increase
- [01:06:15.853]in methane in the atmosphere as well,
- [01:06:18.173]so there's a side effect of that
- [01:06:20.937]and we don't hear as much about that.
- [01:06:23.561]We tend to hear more about carbon dioxide,
- [01:06:25.625]but methane is much more powerful
- [01:06:27.857]greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide
- [01:06:31.849]and with concerns about the permafrost,
- [01:06:34.565]thawing the permafrost and natural gas,
- [01:06:38.190]methane relieves from that and that's a huge issue,
- [01:06:40.930]so it's, I think we've taken a step forward
- [01:06:44.482]in the US by moving away from coal,
- [01:06:47.990]but natural gas is kind of creating
- [01:06:50.242]another series of issues that we're gonna
- [01:06:52.470]have to address as well.
- [01:06:54.398]I don't know, anyone else have comments about--
- [01:06:57.414]That's like switching to (mumbles).
- [01:06:59.782](everyone laughs)
- [01:07:01.686]It's probably better, but it's still not good.
- [01:07:05.973]Depending on who's President,
- [01:07:07.100]we may be building a pipeline,
- [01:07:09.723]which some of them are talking about that, you know?
- [01:07:12.183]Yeah, Kim?
- [01:07:13.640]Bill Kevin had an article
- [01:07:15.016]that came out a couple of months ago.
- [01:07:16.432]I forget which magazine it was in,
- [01:07:17.688]but it was a big, long comprehensive piece
- [01:07:19.800]and his argument was that all this time
- [01:07:21.680]we've been battling CO2, we may have been
- [01:07:23.956]missing the biggest things of all,
- [01:07:25.812]which is all the methane released
- [01:07:27.716]that has come from the fracking move
- [01:07:29.786]and since methane is tens of times more potent than CO2,
- [01:07:34.918]it really is a problem, so it may be
- [01:07:37.494]sort of a sleeping giant that we're not really aware of
- [01:07:41.582]as much as we should be yet
- [01:07:43.370]and so, I think that makes that
- [01:07:44.878]kind of stare down approach that
- [01:07:46.772]the Obama administration has taken is kind of problematic.
- [01:07:52.843]Okay, wow.
- [01:07:54.167]I'll let you say very kind words.
- [01:07:56.003]Okay, we'll be back.
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