Cutting Carbon Emissions: Better Environment, Worse Economy?

Marlo Lewis Jr. & Gilbert Metcalf Author

03/05/2015 Added

644 Plays

Description

This Wilson Dialogue will explore the global environmental and financial effect of carbon emissions and proposed regulation. Experts Lewis and Metcalf will debate the pros and cons of carbon regulation through taxation, cap and trade, and other measures. What is the carbon footprint of your household, employer and nation? How would proposed regulation impact you? Join the dialogue to find out. More at http://enthompson.unl.edu/

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[00:00:02.502]♪ MUSIC ♪
[00:00:43.376]>> GOOD EVENING, I AM SUSAN POSER, DEAN OF THE COLLEGE OF LAW AT
[00:00:46.312]THE UNIVERSITY OF NEBRASKA.
[00:00:47.814]I'M HONORED TO WELCOME YOU TO THE E.N. THOMPSON FORUM
[00:00:54.320]ON WORLD ISSUES.
[00:00:54.654]TONIGHT WE PRESENT THE ANNUAL CHUCK AND LINDA WILSON DIALOGUE,
[00:00:58.591]WHICH THIS YEAR WILL BE A DEBATE ON CARBON EMISSIONS.
[00:01:03.363]CHUCK AND LINDA CREATED THIS DIALOGUE TO EXPLORE BOTH SIDE OF
[00:01:07.400]AN ISSUE IMPORT TONIGHT NEBRASKA AND TO THE NATION.
[00:01:09.836]DR. CHUCK WILSON IS A RETIRED CARDIOLOGIST WHO SERVED ON THE
[00:01:13.640]UNIVERSITY OF NEBRASKA BOARD OF REGENTS FOR MANY YEARS.
[00:01:16.609]LINDA WILSON SERVED ON THE LINCOLN CITY COUNCIL AND THE
[00:01:20.346]PUBLIC BUILDING COMMISSION.
[00:01:21.681]FOR MORE THAN A QUARTER CENTURY, THE UNIVERSITY AND THE COOPER
[00:01:25.685]FOUNDATION HAVE PARTNERED WITH THE CENTER FOR PERFORMING ARTS
[00:01:29.289]TO BRING A DIVERSITY OF VIEWPOINTS ON INTERNATIONAL AND
[00:01:32.859]PUBLIC POLICY ISSUES TO THE UNIVERSITY AND TO THE PEOPLE OF
[00:01:36.963]NEBRASKA IN ORDER TO PROMOTE UNDERSTANDING
[00:01:41.034]AND ENCOURAGE DEBATE.
[00:01:41.367]THIS LECTURE SERIES HONORS THE LATE E.N.JACK THOMPSON,
[00:01:47.874]LONG-TIME PRESIDENT AND CHAIR OF THE COOPER FOUNDATION.
[00:01:50.176]FEW INDIVIDUALS WERE AS SUPPORTIVE OF THE UNIVERSITY
[00:01:53.580]AS JACK.
[00:01:53.880]WE ARE GRATEFUL TO THE COOPER FOUNDATION WHICH FOUNDED THE
[00:01:57.016]THOMPSON FORUM FOR ITS ON GOING SUPPORT AND TO JACK AND
[00:02:00.220]HIS WIFE, KATIE, FOR CREATING A FUND TO SUPPORT THE FORUM.
[00:02:05.558]TONIGHT WE HAVE THE HONOR TO HEAR FROM TWO OF THE WORLD'S
[00:02:08.561]LEADING EXPERTS ON THE PUBLIC POLICY OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND
[00:02:12.499]ENERGY, DR. MARLO LEWIS AND DR. GILBERT METCALF.
[00:02:19.072]DR. MARLO LEWIS IS A SENIOR FELLOW AT THE COMPETITIVE
[00:02:22.876]ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE.
[00:02:23.943]HE WRITES ON GLOBAL WARMING, ENERGY POLICY, AND
[00:02:27.814]PUBLIC POLICY ISSUES.
[00:02:29.849]DURING 106 CONGRESS, DR. LEWIS SERVED AS STAFF DIRECTOR OF THE
[00:02:32.952]HOUSE GOVERNMENT REFORM SUB COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL ECONOMIC
[00:02:36.256]GROWTH, NATURAL RESOURCES AND REGULATORY AFFAIRS.
[00:02:39.626]LEWIS WAS THE RESEARCH DIRECTOR FOR CITIZENS AGAINST GOVERNMENT
[00:02:42.962]WASTE, AND HE HAS BEEN A STAFF CONSULTANT TO THE HOUSE FOREIGN
[00:02:46.599]AFFAIRS SUB COMMITTEE ON INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY
[00:02:48.968]AND TRADE.
[00:02:51.170]LEWIS WAS APPOINTED AND SERVED AS SPECIAL ASSISTANT TO THE
[00:02:53.439]STATE DEPARTMENT OF INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION
[00:02:59.512]AFFAIRS.
[00:03:01.014]DR. DR. LEWIS HELD A BACHELORS DEGREE IN POLITICAL SOUTH AND A
[00:03:05.985]DOCTORATE IN GOVERNMENT FROM HARVARD UNIVERSITY.
[00:03:09.489]DR. METCALF IS A PROFESSOR OF ECONOMICS AT TUFTS UNIVERSITY
[00:03:14.294]AND A RESEARCH ASSOCIATE.
[00:03:16.596]HE'S ALSO A RESEARCH ASSOCIATE AT M. I. T.'S JOINT PROGRAM ON
[00:03:20.466]THE SCIENCE AND POLICY OF GLOBAL CHANGE AND AN ASSOCIATE SCHOLAR
[00:03:24.837]IN THE HARVARD ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS PROGRAM.
[00:03:29.676]METCALF HAS TALKED AT PRINCETON UNIVERSITY, AND M. I. T.
[00:03:34.581]HAS FREQUENTLY TESTIFIED BEFORE CONGRESS, SERVED ON EXPERT
[00:03:38.851]PANELS INCLUDING A NATIONAL ACADEMIES OF SCIENCES PANEL ON
[00:03:43.723]ENERGY EXTERNALITIES AND HE RECENTLY SERVED AS THE DEPUTY
[00:03:49.262]ASSISTANT SECRETARY AT THE US DEPARTMENT OF TREASURY.
[00:03:52.966]METCALF RECEIVED HIS BACHELORS IN MATHEMATICS, A MASTERS DEGREE
[00:03:58.605]IN CULTURAL AND RESOURCE ECONOMICS, AND A PhD IN
[00:04:05.311]ECONOMIC FROM HARVARD UNIVERSITY.
[00:04:07.046]THIS EVENING, EACH OF OUR DISTINGUISHED SPEAKERS WILL
[00:04:12.018]DELIVER AN OPENING STATEMENT, LASTING NO MORE THAN 15 MINUTES.
[00:04:16.689]THEN THEY WILL ENGAGE IN A DIALOGUE BASED ON QUESTIONS I
[00:04:21.461]HAVE POSED.
[00:04:24.931]YOU, THE AUDIENCE, WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO ASK QUESTION BY
[00:04:26.399]WRITING THEM ON THE CARDS PROVIDED BY THE USHERS OR BY
[00:04:27.767]SUBMITTING QUESTIONS THROUGH TWITTER USING HASHTAG
[00:04:33.706]ENTHOMPSONFORUM.
[00:04:34.173]FINALLY, THE SPEAKERS WILL DELIVER BRIEF CLOSING
[00:04:37.610]STATEMENTS.
[00:04:38.444]AUTOGRAPHED BOOKS BY THE SPEAKERS WILL BE FOR SALE IN THE
[00:04:41.581]LOBBY FOLLOWING THIS DEBATE.
[00:04:43.149]THE TITLE OF TONIGHT'S DEBATE IS CUTTING CARBON
[00:04:48.154]EMISSIONS: BETTER ENVIRONMENT, WORSE ECONOMY?
[00:04:50.823]PLEASE JOIN ME WELCOMING DR. MARLO LEWIS AND DR. GILBERT
[00:04:57.330]METCALF.
[00:04:57.897][ APPLAUSE ] >> GOOD EVENING, IT'S A REAL
[00:05:09.642]PLEASURE TO BE HERE IN LINCOLN, NEBRASKA AT THE UNIVERSITY
[00:05:14.447]OF NEBRASKA.
[00:05:14.814]AND I'D LIKE TO THANK, UH, CHUCK AND LINDA WILSON FOR HOSTING
[00:05:19.085]THIS DIALOGUE.
[00:05:20.119]I THINK IT'S A WONDERFUL OPPORTUNITY TO ACTUALLY ENGAGE
[00:05:23.423]IN DIALOGUE ON IMPORTANT ISSUES AND CERTAINLY THERE'S NEED FOR
[00:05:27.927]MORE ENGAGEMENT ON THE ISSUE OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE RIGHT
[00:05:31.330]KINDS OF POLICIES.
[00:05:34.600]IT'S A PLEASURE TO BE HERE IN THE MID WEST, MY WIFE'S FAMILY'S
[00:05:38.204]FRAGMENTED MID WEST.
[00:05:39.038]WE WOULD BRING OUR KIDS OUT TO VISIT FAMILY IN IOWA AND
[00:05:42.709]MINNESOTA, SO IT'S A REAL TREAT, AND WE'RE PARTICULARLY LOOKING
[00:05:45.878]FORWARD ONCE THIS IS DONE IS GOING OUT TO KEARNEY, NEBRASKA,
[00:05:48.781]TO TRY AND SEE IF WE CAN SEE SOME SAND HILL CRANES.
[00:05:53.019]TONIGHT I'M HERE TO TALK ABOUT POLICY AND FROM THE
[00:05:56.656]PERSPECTIVE -- MY PERSPECTIVE AS AN ECONOMIST WHO'S WORKED ON
[00:05:59.559]THIS ISSUE FOR MANY YEARS.
[00:06:02.228]AND THE POINTS I'LL START OUT BY SAYING A LITTLE BIT ABOUT
[00:06:06.332]CLIMATE CHANGE, AND WHAT THE PROBLEM IS, GREEN HOUSE GAS
[00:06:10.369]EMISSIONS LEAD TO A BUILD-UP, A CONCENTRATION OF GREENHOUSE
[00:06:14.107]GASES IN THE ATMOSPHERE, WHICH HAVE, UH, IMPACTS ON WARMING,
[00:06:18.778]AND THEN OTHER WEATHER EVENTS THAT CAN LEAD TO POTENTIAL
[00:06:22.815]EXTREME WEATHER.
[00:06:23.750]THIS IS THE -- THIS IS A CLASSIC EXAMPLE OF WHAT ECONOMISTS CALL
[00:06:29.288]AN EXTERNALITY, WHERE ONE PERSON'S ACTIONS IMPACT SOMEBODY
[00:06:33.392]ELSE BUT NOT OPERATING THROUGH THE MARKET PLACE.
[00:06:36.429]AND THIS IS THE GLOBAL EXTERNALITY.
[00:06:39.899]IT DOESN'T MATTER WHERE THE EMISSIONS OCCUR, WHETHER
[00:06:42.935]A TON OF CARBON DIOXIDE IS RELEASED IN NEBRASKA OR
[00:06:46.372]MASSACHUSETTS OR THE U. S., OR CHINA, IT HAS THE SAME IMPACT IN
[00:06:51.778]TERMS OF AFFECTING THE EARTH'S ECOSYSTEM.
[00:06:55.548]SO IT IS A CLASSIC EXAMPLE OF A MARKET FAILURE WHERE COMPETITIVE
[00:07:01.854]MARKETS WON'T BE EFFICIENT.
[00:07:03.589]THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT MARKETS CAN BE HARNESSED TO REDUCE THE
[00:07:07.460]COST OF FIXING THE PROBLEM, AND THAT'S WHERE CARBON PRICING
[00:07:10.096]COMES INTO PLAY, AND THAT'S WHAT I'LL BE SPEAKING ABOUT.
[00:07:13.466]LET ME FIRST JUST PUT A GRAPH UP HERE FROM SOME STUDY THAT WERE
[00:07:17.870]DONE THAT HAVE TRACKED THE CONCENTRATIONS OF CARBON DIOXIDE
[00:07:23.476]IN THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE PAST 400,000 YEARS.
[00:07:27.446]THIS IS FROM TAKING ICE CORE SAMPLES AND EXTRACTING GASES
[00:07:31.150]FROM TINY LITTLE AIR BUBBLES.
[00:07:33.052]WHAT YOU SEE IS THAT OVER THOUSANDS AND THOUSANDS OF YEARS
[00:07:36.589]WE'VE SEEN FLUCTUATIONS IN GREENHOUSE GASES FROM ROUGHLY
[00:07:41.561]200 PARTS PER MILLION TO 300 PARTS PER MILLION, AND
[00:07:45.965]THERE'S -- THERE IS A VARIATION, AND THERE IS FLUCTUATION, BUT
[00:07:52.205]HISTORICALLY, THE PRE-INDUSTRIAL AGE CONCENTRATIONS HAVE NEVER
[00:07:55.441]GOTTEN ABOVE ROUGHLY 280 PARTS PER MILLION.
[00:07:58.444]THEN, IF YOU LOOK IN RECENT YEARS WHAT YOU SEE IS THAT
[00:08:02.148]CONCENTRATIONS HAVE STARTED TO GROW.
[00:08:03.382]AND WE'VE LITERALLY GONE OFF THE CHART HERE.
[00:08:05.885]IF YOU LOOK AT MORE MODERN DATA, WHAT YOU SEE IS THAT STARTING
[00:08:09.455]FROM ABOUT 1960 WHERE WE WERE AT AROUND 310 PARTS PER MILLION,
[00:08:14.961]CONCENTRATIONS HAVE BEEN STEADILY GROWING OVER THE PAST
[00:08:17.396]50 OR SO YEARS SO WE HAVE JUST ACTUALLY JUST GONE OVER THE 400
[00:08:22.768]PARTS PER MILLION MARK.
[00:08:25.972]SO WE'VE SEEN A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN CONCENTRATIONS OF
[00:08:29.442]GAS IN THE ATMOSPHERE.
[00:08:31.410]WHAT THAT HAS LEAD TO IS INCREASES IN SURFACE
[00:08:36.782]TEMPERATURES AROUND THE WORLD, IN DIFFERENT PARTS.
[00:08:41.187]WE'VE SEEN A DECREASE IN THE EXTENSIVE ARCTIC ICE COVERAGE,
[00:08:45.825]AND WE'VE ALSO SEEN INCREASE -- OF THE EROSION WHICH HAS IMPACTS
[00:08:54.033]ON CORAL AMONG OTHER SEA POPULATIONS.
[00:08:58.471]NOW, GOING FORWARD, ALL WE CAN DO IS SPECULATE.
[00:09:02.475]ALL WE CAN DO IS -- WELL, WE DO MORE THAN SPECULATE.
[00:09:06.212]WE HAVE MODELS THAT ARE IMPERFECT, BUT THEY HAVE BEEN
[00:09:10.316]BASED ON EXTRAORDINARY SCIENCES THAT IS BEING DONE.
[00:09:14.520]ONE EXAMPLE OF WORK IS DONE BY COLLEAGUES AT M.I.T. AT THE -- A
[00:09:20.826]GROUP OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEAN SCIENTISTS ALONG WITH ECONOMISTS
[00:09:24.330]AND POLITICAL SCIENTISTS, THEY HAVE DONE PROJECTIONS -- AND
[00:09:29.035]THESE ARE NOT FORECASTS.
[00:09:30.970]THERE'S CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY TO BE SURE, BUT THEY'VE DONE
[00:09:34.206]FORECASTS ON WHAT WE CAN EXPECT IN THE ABSENCE OF POLICY BETWEEN
[00:09:38.344]NOW AND THE END OF THE CENTURY, AND TEMPERATURE INCREASES
[00:09:42.548]DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF CLIMATE SENSITIVITY WHICH IS A
[00:09:48.154]KEY PARAMETER FOR TRANSLATING INCREASED CARBON -- YOU SEE
[00:09:52.558]TEMPERATURE INCREASES BETWEEN 3 AND 6-DEGREES CELSIUS IN THE
[00:09:57.530]ABSENCE OF ANY KIND OF POLICY.
[00:09:59.665]AND THE IMPACTS -- WE DON'T REALLY KNOW WHAT THE IMPACTS
[00:10:03.970]ARE BECAUSE WE HAVEN'T SEEN THOSE KINDS OF TEMPERATURE
[00:10:06.939]INCREASES CERTAINLY IN HUMAN TIMES.
[00:10:09.575]NOW, THIS CHART WHICH IS -- IT'S A DIFFICULT CHART TO SEE AND I
[00:10:14.680]APOLOGIZE FOR THAT, BUT WHAT IT SHOWS IS OVER THE COURSE OF THE
[00:10:18.751]CENTURY PROJECTION OF INCREASES IN CARBON CONCENTRATIONS FROM
[00:10:25.191]ROUGHLY 310 PARTS PER MILLION, THE CHART ENDS AT THE TOP AT 900
[00:10:29.595]PARTS PER MILLION WHICH IS AN EXTRAORDINARY INCREASE IF IT
[00:10:33.099]WERE TO OCCUR.
[00:10:35.368]AND A STUDY THAT I DID WITH COLLEAGUES AT M I T LINKED OCEAN
[00:10:43.442]AND ATMOSPHERIC MODELS WITH ECONOMIC MODELS AND THE
[00:10:46.379]PROJECTIONS OF WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IN THE ABSENCE OF GIVEN THE BEST
[00:10:49.382]INFORMATION WE HAVE.
[00:10:49.949]WHAT WOULD HAPPEN TO CONCENTRATIONS OF CARBON
[00:10:53.219]IN THE ATMOSPHERE?
[00:10:54.020]WHAT THIS STUDY SHOWED IS THAT IN THE ABSENCE OF POLICY, WE
[00:10:57.590]WOULD SEE CARBON CONCENTRATIONS EXCEEDING 800 PARTS PER MILLION.
[00:11:02.628]WHICH WOULD BE UNFATHOMABLE.
[00:11:04.830]IT'S JUST IMPOSSIBLE TO UNDERSTAND -- TO KNOW WHAT THAT
[00:11:08.334]WOULD MEAN.
[00:11:09.735]IT'S REALLY A TERROR INCOGNITA.
[00:11:14.840]I WANT TO BE CAREFUL IN MY USE OF LANGUAGE, BUT IF THERE IS ANY
[00:11:19.245]CONCERN AT ALL ABOUT POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE -- BY
[00:11:24.417]CATASTROPHE, I'M NOT THINKING THE END OF THE WORLD -- I'M
[00:11:28.554]THINKING CATASTROPHIC IN THE SENSE THAT OUTCOME THAT COULD
[00:11:30.956]LEAD TO EXTREMELY LARGE DECREASES IN GDP, 20 OR
[00:11:35.995]25 PERCENT, WHICH WOULD BE REALLY UNHEARD OF IN MODERN
[00:11:40.032]ECONOMIES.
[00:11:41.367]BUT WOULD BE VERY LOW PROBABILITY EVENTS.
[00:11:44.737]THIS WOULD BE THE REALM IN WHICH WE WOULD SEE SUCH KINDS OF
[00:11:49.108]EVENTS TAKING PLACE.
[00:11:50.142]THIS IS WHERE WE'RE TALKING ABOUT THE COLLAPSE OF GLOBAL
[00:11:53.479]FISHERIES, THE COLLAPSE OF AGRICULTURE IN THE MID WEST WITH
[00:11:59.718]SUCH HIGH CONCENTRATIONS.
[00:12:00.920]I CAN'T SAY THAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN.
[00:12:03.322]I HAVE NO IDEA IF IT'S GOING TO HAPPEN.
[00:12:07.326]THESE ARE THE KINDS OF WHEN WE'RE EXTRAPOLATING OUT TO
[00:12:14.133]CONCENTRATIONS OF GREENHOUSE GASES IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAT
[00:12:16.902]HIGH, YOU THEN HAVE TO BEGIN TO WORRY ABOUT VERY, VERY MAJOR
[00:12:22.842]IMPACTS ON THE ECOSYSTEM.
[00:12:25.177]WE ALSO PROJECT WHAT IF THE DEVELOPED COUNTRIES ACTED BUT NO
[00:12:29.882]DEVELOPING COUNTRIES ACTED COULD WE SOLVE THIS PROBLEM?
[00:12:34.019]THE ANSWER IS NO.
[00:12:35.087]YOU COULD LOWER CONCENTRATIONS BY THE END OF THE CENTURY A
[00:12:37.256]LITTLE BIT, BUT WE'RE STILL UP IN REALLY UNHEARD REGIONS.
[00:12:40.793]WELL, IF WE ACT GLOBALLY, WE CAN MAINTAIN CONCENTRATIONS
[00:12:44.864]ACCORDING TO THIS ANALYSIS THE REALM OF 500 PARTS PER MILLION
[00:12:50.669]WHICH I THINK SCHOLARS AGREE WOULD BE SOMETHING THAT WE COULD
[00:12:55.875]ADAPT TO, WE COULD LIVE WITH, IT'S MORE MANAGEABLE.
[00:12:59.278]NOW, THE POINT OF THIS IS REALLY TO ILLUSTRATE THAT THIS IS A
[00:13:03.282]GLOBAL PROBLEM, AND REQUIRE A GLOBAL SOLUTION.
[00:13:06.852]TO THAT END, THERE ARE ON GOING NEGOTIATIONS, INTERNATIONAL
[00:13:14.360]NEGOTIATIONS, THAT HAVE BEEN WORKING SINCE 1992 REALLY TO
[00:13:18.531]ADDRESS THIS ISSUE AND IN FACT AT THE END OF THIS YEAR, A NEW
[00:13:21.901]INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE AGREEMENT WILL BE HAMMERED OUT IN PARIS
[00:13:25.738]WHICH NEGOTIATIONS STARTED IN 2011 TOWARDS THIS NEW AGREEMENT
[00:13:29.742]WHICH WOULD REPLACE THE KYOTO PROTOCOL.
[00:13:34.680]WHAT'S IMPORTANT ABOUT THIS IS TWO THINGS: ONE IS THAT UNLIKE
[00:13:39.985]THE KYOTO PROTOCOL ONLY DEVELOPED COUNTRIES WERE
[00:13:47.693]REQUIRED TO TAKE ON OBLIGATIONS, THIS WOULD APPLY TO ALL PARTIES,
[00:13:52.698]ALL COUNTRIES.
[00:13:53.465]AND THAT'S A CRITICALLY IMPORTANT STEP GIVEN THE GROWTH
[00:13:57.336]OF THE NATIONS AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES.
[00:14:00.639]TODAY CHINA IS THE LEADING EMITTER OF GREEN HOUSE GASES.
[00:14:07.146]THE AGREEMENT WE CAN EXPECT IN PARIS WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENTLY
[00:14:10.983]AMBITIOUS TO ADDRESS THE PROBLEM WE FACE, IN TERM OF REDUCING
[00:14:20.593]GREENHOUSE GASES.
[00:14:21.627]WE SHOULD THINK OF INTERNATIONAL
[00:14:27.233]NEGOTIATIONS AS A RELAY RACE.
[00:14:28.834]WE HAVE TO KEEP THE DIALOGUE GOING, WE HAVE TO KEEP
[00:14:32.171]NEGOTIATIONS GOING AND GET COUNTRIES LIKE CHINA AND INDIA
[00:14:35.574]TO THE TABLE.
[00:14:39.845]NOW, ARE THERE REASONS TO BE OPTIMISTIC?
[00:14:42.948]I THINK ONE IN TERMS OF GETTING DEVELOPING COUNTRIES TO ENGAGE
[00:14:46.619]WITH THE ISSUES, ONE REASON IS WE CAN SHOW WHAT'S LOOKING AT
[00:14:50.656]HAPPENING IN CHINA TODAY.
[00:14:51.890]CHINA HAS SEEN EXTRAORDINARY ECONOMIC GROWTH, EXTRAORDINARY
[00:14:55.794]RISE AND WEALTH, AND EXTRAORDINARY INCREASES IN URBAN
[00:14:59.498]POLLUTION.
[00:14:59.865]THIS IS URBAN POLLUTION IN B BEIJING.
[00:15:04.603]IT IS QUITE STRIKING HOW BAD THE POLLUTION IS.
[00:15:07.306]MUCH OF WHICH IS DUE TO BURNING COAL FOR INDUSTRY AND
[00:15:11.377]ELECTRICITY.
[00:15:11.777]ONE OF THE THINGS THAT'S BEEN WELL-DOCUMENTED IS THAT AS
[00:15:16.615]ECONOMIES GET WEALTHIER, THE DEMAND FOR ENVIRONMENTAL
[00:15:20.386]SERVICES AND QUALITY INCREASE.
[00:15:21.687]YOU ARE SEEING THE GROWING CONSTITUENCY IN CHINA DEMANDING
[00:15:25.524]IMPROVEMENTS IN ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY.
[00:15:27.192]THE CHINESE LEADERSHIP IS REALLY RESPONDING TO THIS, AND YOU'RE
[00:15:30.763]SEEING REALLY QUITE MARKEDLY MORE AGGRESSIVE ACTIONS TAKEN IN
[00:15:36.001]THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR PLAN.
[00:15:37.603]SO I THINK THIS WILL BOTH LEAD TO IMPROVEMENTS IN LOCAL AIR
[00:15:41.940]QUALITY, BUT WOULD ALSO LEAD TO REDUCTIONS IN GREENHOUSE GAS
[00:15:47.046]EMISSIONS AND THE FACT IN THE RECENT U. S.-CHINA BILATERAL
[00:15:52.685]AGREEMENT, CHINA FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER IS TALKING ABOUT A
[00:15:54.887]DATE BY WHICH THEY WILL PEAK CARBON EMISSIONS AND BEGIN THE
[00:15:59.758]TRAJECTORY DOWNWARD.
[00:16:00.793]THIS IS REALLY NEW.
[00:16:02.294]THEY'RE TRYING LOTS OF EXPERIMENTS, VARIOUS CARBON
[00:16:05.831]PRICING EXPERIMENTS, CAP AND TRADE SYSTEMS.
[00:16:08.801]THEY'RE TALKING ABOUT A CARBON TAX AS WELL.
[00:16:12.671]BUT TO BE FAIR, THEY'RE ALSO BURNING A LOT OF COAL.
[00:16:14.673]SO THERE'S A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF WORK THAT NEEDS TO BE DONE.
[00:16:20.112]NOW WHY SHOULD THE UNITED STATES TAKE ACTION ON CLIMATE IF THE
[00:16:23.482]REST OF THE WORLD DOESN'T OR IF OUR CONTRIBUTION TO REDUCING
[00:16:27.786]EMISSIONS NOT GOING TO BE THAT GREAT GIVEN THE IMPORTANT ROLE
[00:16:31.557]OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES AND EMISSIONS?
[00:16:33.926]AND TO ME THE ANSWER IS THAT WE ARE A WORLD LEADER AND WORLD
[00:16:38.731]LEADERS HAVE TO LEAD.
[00:16:39.531]ONE OF THE AREAS IN WHICH WE HAVE TO LEAD IS IN INTERNATIONAL
[00:16:44.002]CLIMATE POLICY.
[00:16:47.106]IT IS ABSOLUTELY THE CASE THAT IF THE UNITED STATES IS THE ONLY
[00:16:50.709]ONE TO ACT WE WILL NOT SOLVE THIS PROBLEM.
[00:16:53.612]BUT I BELIEVE IT IS ALSO THE CASE IF WE DO NOT ACT, OTHER
[00:16:56.982]COUNTRIES WILL NOT ACT.
[00:16:58.083]HERE, LEADERSHIP I THINK IS GOING TO BE INCREDIBLY
[00:17:02.254]IMPORTANT.
[00:17:02.621]WHAT ARE OUR OPTIONS?
[00:17:03.956]WE'RE ALREADY DO SOME THINGS.
[00:17:06.224]WE'RE DOING VARIOUS SUBSIDIES TO CLEAN ETHANOL PRODUCTION.
[00:17:11.829]WE HAVE PRODUCTION IN INVESTMENT TAX GRIDS FOR WIND AND SOLAR,
[00:17:17.536]RENEWABLE PORTFOLIO STANDARDS IN MANY STATES, AND WE HAVE CLEAN
[00:17:21.173]ENERGY STANDARDS HAVE BEEN DISCUSSED AT DIFFERENT STATES
[00:17:25.344]AND COUNTRIES AS WELL.
[00:17:28.647]WE ALSO HAVE REGULATION.
[00:17:31.984]WE HAVE FUEL ECONOMY STANDARDS WERE TIGHTENED SIGNIFICANTLY IN
[00:17:36.455]2010 SO WE SHOULD SEE AN AVERAGE FUEL ECONOMY GETTING AS HIGH AS
[00:17:41.059]45-MILES PER GALLON BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT DECADE.
[00:17:44.897]THE EPA HAS UNVEILED A CONTROVERSIAL IDEA TO BE SURE,
[00:17:52.037]PLANS TO REDUCE EMISSIONS FROM THE ELECTRIC GENERATING SECTOR,
[00:17:55.541]THE CLEAN POWER PLAN.
[00:17:57.109]BUT THERE ARE OTHER THINGS WE CAN DO.
[00:17:59.344]RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT IS VERY IMPORTANT, BOTH FOR CLEAN
[00:18:02.514]TECHNOLOGIES AS WELL AS CAPTURING AND STORING CARBON.
[00:18:05.951]AND WE ALSO HAVE PRICING MECHANISMS THAT -- HERE WE GO.
[00:18:11.056]THERE ARE VARIOUS MARKET-BASED MECHANISMS WE CAN USE THAT WILL
[00:18:14.893]REDUCE EMISSIONS WHETHER IT BE A CAP AND TRADE SYSTEM, WHICH CAP
[00:18:18.931]THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF EMISSIONS BY LAW AND THEN ALLOWS TRADING TO
[00:18:23.202]DETERMINE WHO GETS TO RELEASE THE EMISSIONS OR A CARBON PRICE,
[00:18:26.305]A CARBON FEE, CARBON TAX.
[00:18:30.542]TO ME, THE MOST EFFECTIVE APPROACHES TO TAKE ARE A
[00:18:33.712]COMBINATION OF CARBON PRICES AND RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
[00:18:36.748]SPENDING, AGGRESSIVE INCREASES IN RESEARCH AND REDEVELOPMENT.
[00:18:40.452]WHY IS CARBON PRICING THE WAY TO GO?
[00:18:42.821]IT IS SIMPLY THE MOST COST EFFECTIVE WAY TO REDUCE
[00:18:47.526]EMISSIONS.
[00:18:47.926]IF YOU LOOK AT OUR EXPERIENCE WITH THE SULFUR DIOXIDE TRADING
[00:18:51.697]PROGRAM FOR ELECTRIC UTILITIES TO REDUCE ACID RAIN STARTING IN
[00:18:55.734]THE 90'S, 1990'S, WHAT WE FOUND THROUGH ANALYSIS IS THAT IT
[00:18:59.771]REDUCED THE COST OF CUTTING EMISSIONS BY 50 PERCENT.
[00:19:06.812]IT CUT THE COST IN HALF OF ACHIEVING A GIVEN REDUCTION IN
[00:19:10.816]EMISSIONS, BECAUSE WE'RE HARNESSING THE POWER OF THE
[00:19:13.752]MARKET AND LETTING INDIVIDUALS MAKE THE DECISION IN RESPONSE TO
[00:19:16.588]MARKET FORCES.
[00:19:18.624]IT WAS -- CAP AND TRADE SYSTEMS ARE RELATIVELY STRAIGHT FORWARD
[00:19:22.628]TO ADMINISTER.
[00:19:24.096]CARBON FEES WERE EVEN MORE STRAIGHT FORWARD TO ADMINISTER,
[00:19:27.833]AND, UH, UM, AS & YOU CAN RAISE REVENUE WITH WHICH YOU CAN USE
[00:19:35.207]TO LOWER OTHER TAXES.
[00:19:36.775]MY VIEW IS IT'S BETTER TO TAX THING YOU DON'T LIKE, EMISSIONS,
[00:19:40.812]RATHER THAN THINGS YOU DO LIKE LIKE LABOR SUPPLY OR
[00:19:45.384]CAPITAL FORMATION.
[00:19:45.984]THIS IS A GRAPH FROM A STUDY BY TWO M. I. T. SCHOLARS THAT LOOK
[00:19:52.357]AT THE IMPACT OF THE CARBON PRICING PROGRAM, REVENUE GIVEN
[00:19:55.694]BACK TO A HOUSE OLD IN EQUAL REBATES TO ALL HOUSE OLDS.
[00:20:01.366]WHAT YOU SEE IS THAT THERE IS A COST TO REDUCING EMISSIONS
[00:20:04.736]FOR SURE.
[00:20:05.037]THE COST TURNS OUT TO BE A LITTLE OVER 300-DOLLARS PER
[00:20:07.839]HOUSE HOLD, WHICH IS LESS THAN ONE HALF OF ONE PERCENT OF
[00:20:11.543]AVERAGE HOUSE HOLD INCOME.
[00:20:12.411]AND WITH THIS PARTICULAR WAY OF GIVING REVENUES BACK, ITS
[00:20:16.048]ACTUALLY QUITE PROGRESSIVE.
[00:20:17.482]YOU SEE THAT WE HAVE POOR HOUSE HOLDS -- WE'RE RANKING HOUSE
[00:20:22.888]HOLDS FROM THE POOREST HOUSE HOLDS AT THE LEFT OF THE CHART
[00:20:26.358]TO THE RICHEST HOUSE HOLDS TO THE RIGHT.
[00:20:29.161]WHAT YOU SEE IS THE AVERAGE COST TO THE POOREST HOUSE HOLDS IS
[00:20:33.298]ACTUALLY NEGATIVE.
[00:20:34.333]MEANING THEY WOULD GET BACK MORE IN A REBATE FROM THE REVENUES
[00:20:37.002]FROM THE CARBON PRICING SCHEME THAN THEY'RE ACTUALLY PAYING IN
[00:20:40.305]HIGHER PRICES FROM GOODS AND SERVICES BECAUSE OF THE COST OF
[00:20:43.709]ENERGY.
[00:20:44.042]NOW AS YOU GO UP THE INCOME SCALE, THE COSTS TURN POSITIVE
[00:20:48.780]AND THEY GET LARGER WHICH IS WHAT THEY WOULD SEE WITH A
[00:20:52.217]PROGRESSIVE KIND OF SYSTEM THAT LEADS TO THE HIGHEST COST BEING
[00:20:55.487]BORN BY THOSE WHO ARE CONSUMING THE MOST AND CONSUMING THE MOST
[00:20:59.224]ENERGY INTENSIVE PRODUCTS.
[00:21:01.093]THIS IS ONE EXAMPLE OF HOW YOU CAN REBATE THE MONEYS, BUT YOU
[00:21:04.830]COULD DO IT IN ANY FASHION THAT LEADS TO THE IMPACT BEING THE
[00:21:09.935]SAME ACROSS ALL HOUSE HOLDS.
[00:21:12.004]THERE ARE LOTS OF DIFFERENT WAYS TO DO IT.
[00:21:14.439]A KEY POINT HERE IS THAT THE COST OF THE ECONOMY IS QUITE LOW
[00:21:17.309]FOR A PROGRAM THAT WOULD REDUCE EMISSIONS BY 50 PERCENT BY THE
[00:21:23.348]MIDDLE OF THE CENTURY.
[00:21:25.017]FOR ME THERE IS A CLIMATE POLICY TRIPOD THAT YOU WANT TO
[00:21:28.820]THINK ABOUT.
[00:21:29.221]ONE LEG IS THAT YOU WANT TO ENHANCE EFFICIENCY, SO USING
[00:21:32.457]REVENUES FROM CARBON PRICING TO LOWER MARGINAL TAX RATES, TO
[00:21:38.096]LOWER THE CORPORATE INCOME TAX OR PERSONAL INCOME TAX RATES
[00:21:42.200]PROVIDE AS BOOST TO THE ECONOMY.
[00:21:44.136]A SECOND LEG IS THAT YOU WANT TO ENHANCE, UH -- SORRY, MAINTAIN
[00:21:48.373]EQUITY IN THE TAX SYSTEM.
[00:21:50.008]YOU DON'T WANT TO PUT THE BURDEN OF THE CARBON PRICING ON THE
[00:21:54.479]POOREST HOUSE HOLDS IN THE ECONOMY.
[00:21:56.915]THE PREVIOUS SLIDE SHOWS WAYS YOU CAN DO THAT, IT ACTUALLY
[00:22:01.019]DISTRIBUTES MORE.
[00:22:01.586]THE THIRD IS THAT WE HAVE TO BE CLEAR THERE ARE LOSERS.
[00:22:04.523]THERE ARE WINNERS AND LOSERS WITH CARBON POLICY, AND WE WILL
[00:22:08.393]NEED TRANSITIONAL ASSISTANCE FOR THE COAL SECTOR, FOR ENERGY
[00:22:13.432]INTENSIVE TRADE EXPOSE SECTORS, WE WILL NEED TRANSITIONAL
[00:22:16.668]TEMPORARY ASSISTANCE TO HELP EASE THE TRANSITION TO
[00:22:22.074]THIS NEW ECONOMY.
[00:22:25.243]>> IT ALL SOUND WELL AND GOOD, BUT IT IS AN EXTRAORDINARILY
[00:22:30.048]DIFFICULT PROBLEM.
[00:22:31.349]THE POLITICS OF SUCH THAT THE COSTS ARE BORN TODAY IN LARGE
[00:22:40.659]MEASURE OF REDUCING EMISSION, THE COST OF CHANGING TO A GREEN
[00:22:45.864]ECONOMY, AND THE BENEFITS ARE RECEIVED IN THE FUTURE, IN TERMS
[00:22:48.867]OF A REDUCED DAMAGES.
[00:22:52.671]AND OF COURSE THE FUTURE DOESN'T VOTE TODAY.
[00:22:57.509]IT IS CURRENT GENERATIONS THAT ARE VOTING, AND YOU ALSO HAVE
[00:23:00.479]THESE CONCENTRATED COST ON INDIVIDUAL SECTORS THAT WILL
[00:23:04.282]CLEARLY FIND THIS POLICY THAT THEY WISH TO OPPOSE.
[00:23:09.154]IT MAKES IT A POLICY THAT IS EASY FOR POLITICIANS THAT WILL
[00:23:13.258]KICK DOWN THE ROAD AND NOT ACT ON.
[00:23:16.128]THE LONGER WE WAIT, THE MORE DIFFICULT IT GETS TO DEAL WITH
[00:23:19.698]THIS. THE WAY I THINK ABOUT THIS PROBLEM AT THE END OF THE
[00:23:23.835]DAY IS THAT I WILL BE HAPPY TO STIPULATE HUNDRED
[00:23:32.010]PERCENT CONFIDENCE OUR MODELS ARE GENERATING PERFECT ANSWERS
[00:23:34.613]IN TERMS OF HOW BAD THE PROBLEM IS.
[00:23:36.815]HOW DIFFICULT IT WOULD BE TO RESOLVE THIS.
[00:23:38.850]BUT I THINK ABOUT IT IN THE SAME WAY THAT I THINK ABOUT OWNING A
[00:23:44.956]HOME.
[00:23:46.158]THERE'S A VERY LOW PROBABILITY THAT I WILL HAVE A FIRE THAT
[00:23:48.794]WILL BURN DOWN MY HOUSE.
[00:23:51.296]EXTRAORDINARILY LOW PROBABILITY.
[00:23:52.664]I'M PRETTY CAREFUL.
[00:23:53.965]I DON'T USE EXTENSION CORDS UNDER RUGS, I DON'T RUN AROUND
[00:23:57.769]LIGHTING PIECES OF PAPER AND DROPPING THEM ON THE FLOOR.
[00:24:04.309]BUT I ALSO KNOW IF THE HOUSE BURNS DOWN, IT'S GOING TO BE
[00:24:07.612]EXTRAORDINARILY BAD FOR ME TO DO THAT, SO I BUY INSURANCE.
[00:24:10.949]I BUY FIRE INSURANCE FOR LOW PROBABILITY, HIGH-IMPACT,
[00:24:16.655]EVENTS.
[00:24:17.022]I THINK OF CLIMATE POLICY AS A FORM OF INSURANCE WE SHOULD BE
[00:24:20.158]THINKING ABOUT WHEN WE SET POLICY.
[00:24:22.294]IT CREATES AN INDUCEMENT FOR CLEAN ENERGY AND INNOVATION TO
[00:24:26.131]CREATE THE TECHNOLOGIES WE NEED TO BE SUCCESSFUL IN ADDRESSING
[00:24:30.669]THIS PROBLEM, COMBINING IT WITH R & D, AND WE CAN HAVE SOME
[00:24:35.440]CONFIDENCE THAT WE CAN ADDRESS THE PROBLEM.
[00:24:39.144]NOW, IT MAY BE THAT OTHER COUNTRIES THAT DON'T AGO, ALONG,
[00:24:45.550]IN WHICH CASE WE HAVE TO STEP BACK AND SAY ARE WE GOING TO ACT
[00:24:51.022]IF OTHER COUNTRIES DON'T?
[00:24:52.557]THEN WE HAVE TO GO TO A PLAN B.
[00:24:55.060]FINALLY, I'LL JUST END BY NOTING THAT THE FOCUS THAT I'VE BEEN --
[00:25:02.667]THE FOCUS HERE HAS BEEN HOW DO WE REDUCE EMISSION MITIGATION,
[00:25:06.805]BUT WE ALSO NEED TO BE THINKING ABOUT ADAPTATION AND CLIMATE
[00:25:10.308]RESILIENCE.
[00:25:10.709]THERE ARE A WHOLE HOST OF QUESTIONS WE CAN TALK ABOUT IN
[00:25:14.846]THE Q & A ABOUT IMPACT ON MILITARY IN REGIONAL SECURITY,
[00:25:18.650]AROUND INFRASTRUCTURE, AROUND WHAT FINANCE CAN DO TO HELP WITH
[00:25:22.721]LEVERAGING RESOURCES TO ADDRESS THIS LOTS OF QUESTIONS, IT'S A
[00:25:30.061]HUGE TOPIC, BUT THIS IS JUST A START FOR WHAT I HOPE WILL BE A
[00:25:33.164]PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATION.
[00:25:34.065]SO THANK YOU VERY MUCH.
[00:25:36.134][ APPLAUSE ] >> I'M GLAD TO BE WITH YOU ALL
[00:25:47.746]TONIGHT.
[00:25:48.113]AND SUSAN, THANK YOU FOR THE INTRODUCTION.
[00:25:53.385]THANK YOU FOR AN ENLIGHTENING PRESENTATION.
[00:25:56.488]MY THESIS AND I'M GOING TO TRY AND SEE IF I CAN GET UP HERE ON
[00:26:02.360]THE SCREEN -- IT DOESN'T SEEM TO WANT TO GET UP THERE.
[00:26:09.534]I DON'T WANT TO KEEP YOU IN SUSPENSE.
[00:26:11.670]LET ME JUST SUMMARIZE THE BASIC -- THERE WE ARE, THANK
[00:26:18.076]YOU.
[00:26:18.376]THE BASIC POINT I'M GOING TO MAKE.
[00:26:19.344]I THINK THAT THE SCIENTIFIC CASE FOR REGULATING OR TAXING THE
[00:26:26.851]WORLD AND THE UNITED STATES BEYOND COAL, BEYOND GAS, BEYOND
[00:26:32.691]OIL, IS MUCH WEAKER THAN PROPONENTS CLAIM.
[00:26:37.295]FOSSIL FUELS, I WILL ARGUE, HAVE ACTUALLY MADE THE CLIMATE MORE
[00:26:41.866]LIVABLE TODAY THAN AT ANY TIME IN HUMAN HISTORY.
[00:26:45.737]SO OFTEN IN THIS PUBLIC CONVERSATION WE HEAR FOSSIL
[00:26:51.576]FUELS PORTRAYED AS SOME KIND OF VILLAIN. A DESTRUCTIVE
[00:26:58.350]ADDICTION THAT IS LEADING US ALL INTO PERDITION.
[00:27:03.621]I THINK YOU CAN SHOW THE CLIMATE TODAY IS THE MOST LIVABLE IT HAS
[00:27:07.225]BEEN AT ANY TIME IN HUMAN HISTORY.
[00:27:09.427]FINAL A, I WILL TRY TO PERSUADE YOU
[00:27:14.899]THAT THE CARBON REDUCTION AGENDA POSES GREATER RISK TO THE
[00:27:18.570]WELL-BEING THAN THE CLIMATE PROBLEM IT PURPORTS TO SOLVE.
[00:27:23.341]SINCE I ONLY HAVE 15 MINUTES, I WANT TO PLUG A BOOK THAT I
[00:27:26.811]DIDN'T WRITE.
[00:27:28.146]MY FRIEND ALEX EPSTEIN DID, BUT I THINK IT'S A VERY ACCESSIBLE
[00:27:33.351]AND THOROUGH PRESENTATION OF THE PERSPECTIVE I WILL BE TRYING TO
[00:27:38.056]ARTICULATE TONIGHT.
[00:27:38.757]ANYWAY, THE SCIENTIFIC CASE, AS I UNDERSTAND IT, FOR TAXING OR
[00:27:45.797]REGULATING AWAY OUR DEPENDENCE ON FOSSIL FUELS CAN BE
[00:27:50.568]SUMMARIZED THREE MAIN POINTS.
[00:27:52.303]FOSSIL FUEL EMISSION WILL RAPIDLY WARM THE PLANET.
[00:27:56.274]THIS WARMING WILL HAVE TERRIBLE IMPACT.
[00:27:58.676]AND THE IMPACTS WILL BE SO EXTREME WE WON'T BE ABLE TO
[00:28:01.613]ADAPT TO THEM AT A REASONABLE COST.
[00:28:03.815]THAT'S WHY WE HAVE TO MITIGATE THEM OR REDUCE THEM.
[00:28:07.385]NOW, PREDICTIONS OF RAPID WARMING AND PROFESSOR METCALF
[00:28:15.660]REFERRED TO THEM AT TIME AS PROJECTIONS.
[00:28:18.797]AND IT'S TRUE -- THEY'RE ALL IF/THEN PROPOSITIONS. IF
[00:28:23.902]EMISSIONS RISE TO THIS LEVEL, WE'LL GET THIS MUCH WARMING.
[00:28:26.571]ONCE YOU MAKE THAT ASSUMPTION, YOU'RE MAKING A PREDICTION.
[00:28:29.674]THESE PREDICTIONS ARE BASED ON CLIMATE MODELS OR COMPUTER
[00:28:34.045]SIMULATIONS OF THE CLIMATE.
[00:28:35.713]THEY'RE NOT PERFORMING VERY WELL.
[00:28:39.984]I'LL START WITH JUST THE TWO MOST FAMOUS, THE ONES THAT
[00:28:42.487]REALLY TICKED OFF, THE, THE GLOBAL -- KICKED OFF THE GLOBAL
[00:28:46.591]WARMING MOVEMENT.
[00:28:47.959]THAT PUT GLOBAL WARMING ON THE POLITICAL MAP.
[00:28:50.495]THIS ONE HERE IS FROM NASA SCIENTIST JAMES HANSON.
[00:28:54.766]THIS IS WHAT HE PRESENTED IN CONGRESSIONAL TESTIMONY IN 1988.
[00:28:58.937]I KNOW TO SOME PEOPLE THAT MAY BE IN ANCIENT HISTORY, BUT HE WAS
[00:29:02.640]THERE AT THE INVITATION OF THEN SENATOR AL GORE, AND THIS REALLY
[00:29:08.079]GOT THE PUBLIC'S ATTENTION.
[00:29:09.347]IF YOU LOOK AT THAT, THOSE LINES THERE, YOU'LL SEE THAT THE TOP
[00:29:15.120]LINE, THE RED LINE, IS WHAT HANSON FORECAST WOULD HAPPEN TO
[00:29:19.757]GLOBAL TEMPERATURES IF GOVERNMENTS TOOK NO ACTION TO
[00:29:24.362]REDUCE EMISSIONS.
[00:29:25.630]THE NEXT ONE DOWN, THE ORANGE ONE, IS WHAT HAPPENS IF
[00:29:29.467]GOVERNMENTS OF THE WORLD FREEZE EMISSIONS AT THE LATE
[00:29:34.806]1980'S LEVEL.
[00:29:35.140]THE YELLOW LINE IS WHAT HAPPENS -- HANSEN THOUGHT WOULD
[00:29:38.877]HAPPEN IF GOVERNMENTS TOOK, QUOTE, DRASTIC ACTIONS TO REDUCE
[00:29:42.514]EMISSIONS DURING 1990 TO THE YEAR 2000.
[00:29:46.651]WE KNOW THAT NO SUCH DRASTIC ACTION OCCURRED AND YET, LOOK.
[00:29:51.222]THE BLUE LINES UNDER THERE, THOSE ARE INDEPENDENT
[00:29:55.426]OBSERVATIONAL DATA SETS OF HOW THE CLIMATE ACTUALLY BEHAVED.
[00:30:01.065]MORE OVER, EMISSIONS ACTUALLY GREW FASTER DURING THAT PERIOD
[00:30:07.605]THAN HANSEN'S RED LINE PROJECTION FOR THE BUSINESS AS
[00:30:13.244]USUAL SCENARIO.
[00:30:14.612]WE HAD GREATER EMISSIONS GROWTH AND YET THE ACTUAL CLIMATE
[00:30:18.416]TURNED OUT TO BE COOLER THAN WHAT HANSEN FORECAST IF
[00:30:22.787]GOVERNMENTS TOOK DRAMATIC ACTION.
[00:30:24.489]THE NEXT SLIDE SHOWS YOU THE OTHER MOST PIVOTAL OF ALL
[00:30:29.861]PROJECTIONS, OR PREDICTIONS.
[00:30:32.030]THIS ONE IS FROM THE FIRST IPCC REPORT IN 1990.
[00:30:35.400]AND WHAT -- AND THAT REPORT ACTUALLY WENT ALL THE WAY UP TO
[00:30:38.503]THE YEAR 2100.
[00:30:40.672]THIS JUST TAKES THE SLIGHT THAT WE CAN ACTUALLY COMPARE THE DATA
[00:30:46.411]UP TO 19 -- UP TO 2014.
[00:30:49.414]YOU CAN SEE THAT THE OBSERVED TEMPERATURES, WHICH IS THE BLUE
[00:30:56.621]LINE, ARE ONLY ABOUT HALF THE WARMING OF THE BEST ESTIMATE,
[00:31:00.491]WHICH IS THE RED LINE.
[00:31:02.527]AND ALSO FALL BELOW THE BOTTOM END OF THE RANGE OF PROJECTIONS
[00:31:06.998]FROM THE ENSEMBLE OF MODELS THAT THE IPCC USED.
[00:31:11.569]NOW, I KNOW WHAT SOME OF YOU MAY BE THINKING.
[00:31:14.606]PREDICTION IS HARD.
[00:31:16.241]ESPECIALLY ABOUT THE FUTURE.
[00:31:18.009]GIVE THESE GUY AS BREAK.
[00:31:19.077]ALL RIGHT, I'M HERE MORE THAN HAPPY TO STIPULATE TO THAT.
[00:31:25.617]BUT LOOK AT THIS NEXT SLIDE HERE.
[00:31:32.056]THESE ARE PROJECTIONS NOT OF WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN IN THE
[00:31:34.959]FUTURE, BUT WHAT SHOULD HAVE HAPPENED IF THE BASIC
[00:31:37.629]CLIMATOLOGY OF THE MODELS WERE CORRECT IN HIND CASTING WHAT
[00:31:42.900]ALREADY OCCURRED.
[00:31:43.568]SO THESE -- THIS IS 35 YEARS LATER MANY MILLIONS OF DOLLAR IN
[00:31:52.877]CLIMATE RESEARCH GRANTS LATER.
[00:31:54.312]THE RED LINE IS THE AVERAGE OF THE MODELS POST-DICTION, OR HIND
[00:31:59.417]CASTING, OF WHAT ACTUALLY OCCURRED.
[00:32:01.953]YOU CAN SEE THE TWO LINES AT THE BOTTOM THERE, THOSE REPRESENT
[00:32:05.523]FOUR INDEPENDENT DATA SETS -- TWO OF THEM BALLOON DATA SETS,
[00:32:10.762]THE OTHER SATELLITES.
[00:32:12.297]SO YOU CAN SEE THAT THE MODELS TODAY CAN'T EVEN REPLICATE WHAT
[00:32:16.367]HAPPENED IN THE PAST, THEY OVER SHOOT IT.
[00:32:18.036]IF WE LOOK AT THE NEXT SLIDE, THIS WILL SHOW YOU ONCE AGAIN A
[00:32:20.972]RANGE OF PROJECTIONS FROM THE MODELS COMPARED TO THE
[00:32:24.575]OBSERVATIONS AND YOU SEE THAT THE OBSERVED TEMPERATURES ARE
[00:32:28.646]BELOW THE LOW END OF THE RANGE OF PROJECTIONS.
[00:32:37.055]MANY PEOPLE HAVE SPECULATED AS TO WHAT THAT MIGHT MEAN.
[00:32:40.958]THERE HAVE BEEN DOZENS OF POSSIBILITIES FOR THIS GROWING
[00:32:46.197]EMERGENCY BETWEEN MODEL PROJECTIONS AND ACTUAL
[00:32:48.566]TEMPERATURES.
[00:32:49.000]ONE POSSIBILITY, THOUGH, IS SIMPLY THAT THESE MODELS ARE
[00:32:52.103]TUNED TOO HOT.
[00:32:52.937]THEY ASSUME TOO MUCH OF WHAT DR. METCALF REFERRED TO AS
[00:33:00.378]CLIMATE SENSITIVITY.
[00:33:01.412]LET ME GET TO THE SECOND BASIS OF THIS AGENDA TO TAX OR
[00:33:05.717]REGULATE US BEYOND FOSSIL FUELS.
[00:33:07.819]IT IS THAT WE'RE GOING TO SEE TERRIBLE IMPACTS FROM THIS
[00:33:11.189]VERY RAPID WARMING, WHICH I HAVE JUST SHOWN YOU, UH, BASED ON THE
[00:33:14.726]DATA IS NOT OCCURRING.
[00:33:18.162]I JUST LOVE THIS BECAUSE IT SHOWS A HURRICANE SPINNING OUT
[00:33:21.833]OF A COAL-FIRED POWER PLANT, FROM AL GORE'S MOVIE POSTER.
[00:33:30.274]BUT INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, THERE'S EXCEEDINGLY LITTLE DATA
[00:33:34.412]THAT THE WARMING THAT WE'VE EXPERIENCED HAS HAD ANY OF THESE
[00:33:38.883]SORTS OF AFFECTS.
[00:33:43.888]SO WHAT I'VE GOT -- WHAT I'M SHOWING YOU HERE FIRST IS THIS
[00:33:47.558]IS HURRICANE FREQUENCY IN THE UNITED STATES, THE FREQUENCY OF
[00:33:51.596]LAND FALLING HURRICANES, THE HURRICANES THAT ACTUALLY DO
[00:33:54.565]DAMAGE TO THE UNITED STATES, FROM 1900 TO 2013.
[00:33:59.670]THERE HAS BEEN VERY MEASURABLE GLOBAL WARMING SINCE 1900.
[00:34:04.942]ABOUT 0.8-DEGREES CELSIUS, A LITTLE OVER ONE DEGREE
[00:34:09.847]FAHRENHEIT GLOBAL WARMING.
[00:34:11.114]THE EARTH IS A BIG PLACE, SO ONE DEGREE IS NOT NOTHING.
[00:34:14.819]BUT WHAT WE FIND IS A 20 PERCENT DECLINE IN THE FREQUENCY OF
[00:34:20.190]LAND-FALLING HURRICANES.
[00:34:21.225]THE VERY REVERSE THAT YOU'D THINK WOULD HAPPEN IF THESE
[00:34:25.797]CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS AND THE RESULTING WARMING WERE PLAYING
[00:34:29.067]HAVOC WITH OUR CLIMATE.
[00:34:30.701]SIMILARLY, THERE'S BEEN ABOUT 20 PERCENT DECLINE IN A MEASURE
[00:34:34.205]OF OVERALL HURRICANE STRENGTH CALLED THE POWER DISSIPATION
[00:34:39.377]INDEX.
[00:34:39.677]IF YOU LOOK GLOBALLY, THIS IS ANOTHER MEASURE OF HURRICANE
[00:34:43.313]STRENGTH CALLED ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY.
[00:34:47.051]RIGHT NOW WE'RE BACK DOWN TO WHERE ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY
[00:34:50.621]WAS IN THE 1970'S.
[00:34:54.891]THIS IS A SLIDE THAT SHOWS WHAT ARE CALLED THE NORMALIZED
[00:35:01.365]DAMAGES FROM HURRICANES. IF YOU JUST LOOK AT THE MONETARY LOSSES
[00:35:04.101]FROM HURRICANES, THEY ARE SKY ROCKETING BETWEEN 1900
[00:35:09.440]AND TODAY.
[00:35:11.642]THAT'S BECAUSE YOU HAVE MORE PEOPLE AND MORE STUFF IN HARM'S
[00:35:13.711]WAY AND ALSO THERE'S BEEN A WHOLE LOT OF INFLATION OVER THE
[00:35:17.281]LAST CENTURY.
[00:35:18.282]IF YOU ADJUST FOR POPULATION, WEALTH, AND CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
[00:35:24.722]WHAT YOU FIND IS NO TREND WHATSOEVER IN HURRICANE-RELATED
[00:35:28.726]DAMAGES.
[00:35:29.060]IN FACT, THE 1926 MIAMI HURRICANE WOULD BE THE MOST
[00:35:34.699]DAMAGING HURRICANE IF THAT HURRICANE HAD HIT IN 1926 WITH
[00:35:38.870]TODAY'S POPULATION AND WEALTH.
[00:35:45.576]YOU SEE THE SAME THING GLOBALLY.
[00:35:47.378]THIS IS NOT JUST HURRICANES, THIS IS ALL WEATHER-RELATED
[00:35:48.746]LOSSES, NORMALIZED AGAIN TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT DIFFERENCES IN
[00:35:52.783]POPULATION, WEALTH, AND PRICE LEVELS.
[00:35:55.486]SO THERE'S NO TREND THERE, EITHER, WHICH IS REALLY QUITE
[00:35:59.657]AMAZING.
[00:36:00.258]SINCE 1960.
[00:36:05.763]WHAT YOU ALSO FIND IS THAT SINCE 1990, THERE HAS BEEN A REDUCTION
[00:36:08.766]IN NORMALIZED WEATHER-RELATED DAMAGES, AS O PROPORTION OF
[00:36:13.938]GLOBAL GDP.
[00:36:14.872]IF THIS WERE A TERRIBLE CRISIS WHAT WE WOULD SEE IS THAT THE
[00:36:22.113]DAMAGES WOULD BE INCREASING AS A PROPORTION OF WEALTH.
[00:36:26.083]THEY'RE NOT, THEY'RE DECLINING.
[00:36:27.818]WE CAN LOOK AT SOME OTHER MEASURES HERE, LIKE ONE OF THE
[00:36:30.888]FEARS ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE IS THAT IT WILL INCREASE THE
[00:36:37.128]INTENSITY AND FREQUENCY OF FLOODS.
[00:36:40.531]THIS IS A CHART BASED ON A STUDY BY THE US GEOLOGICAL SOCIETY, OF
[00:36:47.805]FLOOD FREQUENCY AND THERE'S THR HAS BEEN NO CHANGE SINCE 1950.
[00:36:51.108]NO TREND.
[00:36:51.742]YOU SEE A LOT OF INTER ANNUAL FLUCTUATION, BUT NO TREND.
[00:36:56.080]THE SAME THING, IF YOU LOOK AT TORNADOES IT APPEARS THERE'S A
[00:37:02.553]KIND OF DOWNWARD TREND.
[00:37:04.155]I DOUBT THIS HAS ANYTHING TO DO WITH GLOBAL ATMOSPHERICS
[00:37:08.926]WHATSOEVER.
[00:37:09.327]BUT IT'S INTERESTING THAT TORNADOES ARE NOT GETTING MORE
[00:37:12.663]FREQUENT AND MORE INTENSE.
[00:37:18.769]>> AM I JUST CHERRY PICKING SCIENTIFIC STUDIES THAT HAVE
[00:37:22.974]COOL-LOOKING GRAPHS?
[00:37:23.541]NO, ACTUALLY, WHAT I'M SAYING IS WHAT YOU CAN FIND IN THE IPCC
[00:37:27.578]REPORT ITSELF.
[00:37:29.046]THE IPCC IS TAKEN BY MANY TO BE THE CONSENSUS OF THE
[00:37:34.118]CLIMATOLOGY, THE CONSENSUS ON CLIMATE SCIENCE, AND OF COURSE
[00:37:37.121]THE IPCC DOESN'T ADVERTISE THIS GOOD NEWS IN ITS PRESS RELEASES,
[00:37:43.561]BUT IF YOU DO DIG THROUGH THE REPORTS, YOU WILL FIND
[00:37:49.867]DOCUMENTATION OF EVERYTHING I JUST SAID.
[00:37:55.740]LET'S GET TO THE THIRD PREMISE OF CARBON REDUCTION POLICY IS
[00:38:00.578]THESE IMPACTS ARE GOING TO BE SO SECURE WE CAN'T ADAPT AT
[00:38:04.215]REASONABLE COSTS, THEREFORE WE MUST START TO REDUCE THESE
[00:38:07.318]EMISSIONS AND PAY A PRICE FOR IT, IF NECESSARY.
[00:38:09.954]HERE'S JUST A HUMOROUS POSTER FROM THE MOVIE THE DAY AFTER
[00:38:14.792]TOMORROW.
[00:38:15.159]WHICH I THINK -- TO WHICH I THINK DR. METCALF ALLUDED WHEN
[00:38:19.530]HE TALKED ABOUT HOLLYWOOD SCI FI
[00:38:25.503]DISASTER FILMS.
[00:38:26.570]BUT, LOOK, UM, HISTORICALLY, DROUGHT WAS THE LEADING CAUSE OF
[00:38:31.709]WEATHER-RELATED DEATH, ALL RIGHT.
[00:38:32.977]OR CLIMATE RELATED DEATH.
[00:38:34.612]IN THE 1920'S, IF YOU LOOK AT THAT SLIDE THERE, YOU'LL SEE THAT
[00:38:38.649]DROUGHT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEATHS OF ABOUT 472,000 PEOPLE
[00:38:44.955]WORLDWIDE.
[00:38:45.356]WHAT HAPPENED SINCE THE 1920'S?
[00:38:47.892]WELL, FOR ONE THING, FOSSIL FUEL CONSUMPTION SKY ROCKETED, AND AS
[00:38:53.664]A RESULT OF THAT CARBON DIOXIDE CONCENTRATIONS IN THE
[00:38:58.402]ATMOSPHERE INCREASED BY ABOUT ONE THIRD AND IN PART BECAUSE OF
[00:39:02.640]THAT, THE EARTH GOT WARMER AND YET DROUGHT-RELATED DEATHS
[00:39:07.111]DECLINED BY AN AMAZING 99.8% BETWEEN THE 1920'S AND THE LAST
[00:39:14.118]COUPLE OF DECADES.
[00:39:15.720]THAT IS IN SPITE OF IT HUMAN POPULATION GROWING IN DROUGHT
[00:39:24.295]PRONE REGIONS BY THREE TO FOUR TIMES.
[00:39:26.931]WHAT CAUSED THIS REMARKABLE HUMAN IMPROVEMENT?
[00:39:29.834]HOW DID THIS HAPPEN IN SPITE OF ALL THAT WARMING AND ALL THOSE
[00:39:33.137]EMISSIONS?
[00:39:33.571]WELL, FOSSIL FUELED MACHINERY, TRACTORS, HARVESTERS, IRRIGATION
[00:39:40.311]PUMPS, MANY OF YOU STUDY AGRICULTURE, YOU KNOW THIS
[00:39:43.013]BETTER THAN I DO. RSH THEY MADE AGRICULTURE FAR MORE PRODUCTIVE,
[00:39:47.485]SO DID FERTILIZERS AND PESTICIDES MADE FROM PETROLEUM,
[00:39:51.355]AND NATURAL GAS, AND FACTORIES POWERED BY FOSSIL ENERGY.
[00:39:55.326]FOSSIL FUEL TRANSPORT BROUGHT NEW TECHNOLOGY AND IMPROVED
[00:39:59.396]SEEDS TO FARM, RIGHT, AND THEN MOVED PRODUCE FROM FARMS TO
[00:40:03.634]DISTANT CITIES AND FROM FOOD SURPLUS AREAS TO FOOD DEFICIT AREAS,
[00:40:09.540]PLASTICS MADE FROM FOSSIL FUELS AND REFRIGERATION POWERED BY
[00:40:13.410]FOSSIL ENERGY REDUCED SPOILAGE, AND WASTE.
[00:40:16.747]AND THEN FOSSIL FUELED ECONOMIES CREATED THE HEALTH -- THE
[00:40:23.287]WEALTH, THE PHYSICAL ASSETS AND THE EXPERTISE FOR DISASTER
[00:40:26.690]RELIEF PROGRAMS.
[00:40:27.591]PLUS, AND THIS IS JUST A CHERRY ON THE CAKE, RISING CO2
[00:40:34.799]CONCENTRATIONS BOOSTED CROP YIELD.
[00:40:36.100]THE RESULT WAS A 99.8 PERCENT REDUCTION IN DEATHS RELATED TO
[00:40:42.573]DROUGHT.
[00:40:42.940]SO I HAVE TO SAY TANK YOU, FOSSIL FUELS.
[00:40:48.012]WHAT YOU'LL FIND IS THAT SIMILARLY REMARKABLE DECLINE IN
[00:40:55.052]DEATH FROM -- UH, FROM, UH, FROM -- I CAN'T EVEN -- OH,
[00:41:00.057]YEAH, FROM STORMS.
[00:41:01.625]I'M HAVING TROUBLE READING IT.
[00:41:03.160]ANYWAY, YOU CAN SEE SIMILAR DECLINES IN DEATH-RELATED STORM,
[00:41:07.464]AND DEATH-RELATED TO FLOODS AND, UH, ALSO JUST OVERALL, UH
[00:41:14.672]WEATHER-RELATED DEATHS.
[00:41:16.073]BASICALLY WHAT IT IS IS A 93 PERCENT REDUCTION IN DEATH
[00:41:19.510]RELATE TO EXTREME WEATHER BETWEEN THE 1920'S AND TODAY AND
[00:41:24.915]A 98% REDUCTION IN DEATH RATES.
[00:41:27.051]IN OTHER WORDS, DEATHS PER MILLION POPULATION. SO I
[00:41:32.790]FLASHED THE PICTURE OF MY FRIEND'S BOOK AND WHAT I REALLY
[00:41:35.559]LIKE ABOUT THE BOOK IS ONE OF HIS STATEMENTS IN THERE.
[00:41:38.929]I'M NOT QUOTING IT, IT'S A PARAPHRASE, BUT THIS IS THE
[00:41:43.367]IDEA; THAT HUMAN BEING USING CARBON DIOXIDE EMITTING ENERGY
[00:41:47.438]DID NOT TAKE A SAFE CLIMATE AND MAKE IT DANGEROUS, RATHER PEOPLE
[00:41:51.108]WHO WERE EMPOWERED WITH CHEAP, PLENTIFUL, AND RELIABLE ENERGY,
[00:41:56.046]TACK TOOK A NATURALLY DANGEROUS CLIMATE AND MADE IT
[00:42:00.718]DRAMATICALLY SAFER.
[00:42:01.051]WHEN WE LOOK AT THE VERY BIG PICTURE, BY WHICH I MEAN THE
[00:42:04.755]HISTORY OF CIVILIZATION OVER THE LAST 250 YEARS, THE LAST 2,000
[00:42:12.363]YEARS, WHAT WE FIND IS THAT FOSSIL FUELS HAVE BEEN AND
[00:42:16.333]REMAIN THE CHIEF SOURCE OF HUMAN PROGRESS.
[00:42:19.637]THESE TWO SLIDES I'VE JUST SHOWN YOU COME FROM A STUDY BY AN
[00:42:25.109]ECONOMIST -- DOKLANI, AND WHAT YOU CAN SEE HERE IS THAT HAD
[00:42:28.812]ECONOMIES OF THE WORLD PRIOR TO 1750 WERE TRULY UNSUSTAINABLE.
[00:42:33.884]THE AVERAGE LIFE SPAN WAS ABOUT 25 YEARS, POPULATION BARELY GREW
[00:42:37.421]AT A CRAWL, IT WAS ALWAYS HELD IN CHECK EVERY TIME IT EDGED UP
[00:42:41.025]A LITTLE BIT BY DISEASE, FAMINE, AND WAR, SLAVERY WAS RAMPANT.
[00:42:46.697]AND THESE SLIDE SHOW JUST AN AMAZING CORRELATION BETWEEN
[00:42:50.234]CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS AND POPULATION.
[00:42:52.603]LIFE EXPECTANCY, AND PER CAPITA INCOME.
[00:42:56.674]CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS ARE HIGHLY CORRELATED WITH THE
[00:43:00.277]BEST OVERALL INDICATORS OF SUSTAINABLE, HEALTH, AND
[00:43:05.482]MATERIAL WELFARE.
[00:43:06.483]HOW WAS IT THAT FOSSIL FUELS OBLITERATED MAN KIND FROM THIS
[00:43:12.823]MALFEASANT NIGHTMARE?
[00:43:14.091]THEY SUPPORTED AN EVER GROWING ARRAY OF EVER GROWING
[00:43:18.095]TECHNOLOGIES TO PRODUCE FOOD, SANITIZE WATER, KILL DISEASE,
[00:43:21.498]BUILD INFRASTRUCTURE, TRANSPORT PEOPLE AND GOODS, CREATE
[00:43:25.035]INFORMATION NETWORKS, AND IN GENERAL, AND I THINK THIS IS A
[00:43:27.972]POINT THAT'S ALL TOO OFTEN LOST, BUT IT'S VERY IMPORTANT.
[00:43:31.709]FOSSIL FUEL BECAUSE THEY'RE CHEAP, AFFORDABLE AND SCALABLE,
[00:43:34.678]IN OTHER WORDS THEY CAN APPLY TO LARGE MASS OF PEOPLE, PUT SUPER
[00:43:38.949]HUMAN ABILITIES AT THE BECK AND CALL OF ORDINARY FOLKS.
[00:43:45.789]SO THERE IS REALLY NO EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE THAT TODAY CLIMATE
[00:43:52.629]CHANGE IS HOLDING BACK THIS SORT OF PROGRESS.
[00:43:55.399]THIS IS JUST SOME DATA FROM A WORLD HEALTH REPORT.
[00:44:01.772]BUT IT'S ON MALARIA.
[00:44:03.774]IN AFRICA, MALARIA INFECTIONS HAD DECLINED
[00:44:10.848]26 PERCENT, JUST SINCE THE YEAR 2000.
[00:44:13.951]GLOBAL CROP YIELDS HAVE INCREASED BY ABOUT 160%, JUST
[00:44:18.389]SINCE 1961.
[00:44:19.256]THIS RISE IS ON GOING.
[00:44:25.396]HERE'S WHERE I SHIFT GEARS A LITTLE BIT.
[00:44:27.631]I THINK THIS PROGRESS IS WONDERFUL, BUT IT'S NOT GOOD
[00:44:30.567]ENOUGH ABOUT 700 MILLION FEWER PEOPLE TODAY LIVE IN ABSOLUTE
[00:44:37.307]POVERTY THAN WAS THE CASE IN THE YEAR 2000.
[00:44:39.576]BUT, AN ESTIMATED 1.2 BILLION PEOPLE STILL STRUGGLE TO SURVIVE
[00:44:45.215]ON INCOMES OF ONE DOLLAR AND TWENTY-FIVE CENTS A DAY.
[00:44:52.923]NO MATTER HOW BAD CLIMATE HEY BE IN SOME PROJECTIONS OF THE
[00:44:58.228]FUTURE, IT PALES IN COMPARISON TO THE SUFFERING AND
[00:45:02.433]MISERY THAT POVERTY CAUSES TODAY.
[00:45:06.103]POVERTY TODAY IS BY FAR THE LEADING CAUSE OF PREVENTABLE
[00:45:10.641]ILLNESS AND PREMATURE DEATH IN THE WORLD.
[00:45:14.111]AND A CHIEF REASON POOR COUNTRIES ARE STILL POOR IS
[00:45:17.147]BECAUSE THEY LACK MODERN COMMERCIAL ENERGY.
[00:45:21.518]ABOUT 1 POINT THREE BILLION PEOPLE HAVE NO ACCESS TO
[00:45:23.887]ELECTRICITY, ANOTHER 2.3 BILLION LIVE IN COMMUNITIES WITH LIMITED
[00:45:28.225]HOURS OF ELECTRIC SERVICE OR UNPREDICTABLE BLACKOUTS
[00:45:32.796]AND SO ON.
[00:45:33.063]A TOP ENERGY PRIORITY OF WORLD LEADERS TODAY I THINK SHOULD BE
[00:45:36.967]TO MAKE ENERGY CHEAPER SO THAT THE POOREST OF THE POOR CAN
[00:45:39.636]BEGIN TO ENJOY THE HEALTH, SAFETY, COMFORT, AND
[00:45:44.108]OPPORTUNITIES WE TAKE FOR GRANTED.
[00:45:45.609]BUT IT SEEMS TO ME THAT THE CARBON REDUCTION AGENDA ATTEMPTS
[00:45:49.813]TO DO JUST THE REVERSE OF THAT.
[00:45:51.915]IT TRIES TO TAKE THE WORLD'S MOST AFFORDABLE, PLENTIFUL, AND
[00:45:57.121]SCALABLE ENERGY SOURCES AND MAKE THEM MORE COSTLY, MAKE THEM
[00:46:02.893]SCARCER.
[00:46:03.861]NOW, IT'S INTERESTING THE CLIMATE NEGOTIATIONS HAVE TAKEN
[00:46:09.733]MANY TWIST AND TURNS AND THIS IS AN ANALYSIS WAS DONE YEARS
[00:46:14.938]AGO, IN 2007 BY THE DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY.
[00:46:18.876]IT'S SOMEWHAT DATE, BUT I THINK IT STILL IS A PRETTY GOOD
[00:46:23.413]BIG-PICTURE PRESENTATION.
[00:46:24.448]THIS IS THE PROJECTION OF EMISSIONS BETWEEN 2015,
[00:46:33.390]ROUGHLY, AND 2100.
[00:46:35.125]AS YOU CAN SEE, VIRTUALLY ALL EMISSIONS GROWTH IS PROJECTED TO
[00:46:41.965]A CURVE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES.
[00:46:43.934]THIS IS A BUSINESS AS USUAL SCENARIO, NO NEW POLICY.
[00:46:49.640]SO, UM, A LOT HAS CHANGED IN THE CLIMATE NEGOTIATIONS BUT MANY
[00:46:54.845]PEOPLE IN THE CLIMATE NEGOTIATION BUSINESS FOR MANY
[00:46:58.882]YEARS HAVE BEEN PUSHING ULTIMATELY FOR A TARGET OF THE
[00:47:02.452]WORLD REDUCING ITS EMISSIONS, TOTAL WORLDWIDE EMISSIONS,
[00:47:06.456]50 PERCENT BY 2050.
[00:47:09.259]THIS STUDY THAT THESE GRAPHS I'M SHOWING YOU FROM THIS DEPARTMENT
[00:47:13.030]OF ENERGY ANALYSIS, THE ATTEMPT HERE WAS TO FIGURE OUT OKAY,
[00:47:18.268]SUPPOSE THE INDUSTRIAL COUNTRY WERE ABLE TO SUCCEED IN
[00:47:21.772]BECOMING ZERO EMISSION ECONOMIES BY THE YEAR 2050.
[00:47:26.009]WHAT WOULD THE REST OF THE WORLD HAVE TO DO IN ORDER FOR THE
[00:47:31.381]GLOBAL TOTAL TO BE 50 PERCENT BELOW CURRENT LEVELS.
[00:47:35.252]THAT IS TODAY BY 2050.
[00:47:36.954]AND IT LOOKS, YOU KNOW, FROM THIS ANALYSIS, THAT THE REST OF
[00:47:41.124]THE WORLDWIDE BASICALLY HAVE TO KEEP ITS EMISSIONS ALMOST
[00:47:46.163]FLAT-LINED.
[00:47:46.563]I MEAN, IT COULD GO UP, BUT THEY WOULD EVENTUALLY IT HAVE TO DROP
[00:47:50.267]DOWN PRETTY QUICKLY SO THAT OVERALL THERE WASN'T TOO MUCH
[00:47:54.838]EMISSIONS GROWTH IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD EITHER.
[00:47:57.574]NOW, TO ME THAT LOOK LIKE A TRAIN WRECK.
[00:47:59.643]I JUST DON'T KNOW HOW THEY DO THAT AND NOT LIFT THEIR PEOPLE
[00:48:04.381]OUT OF POVERTY.
[00:48:06.250]WHEN THE MOST AFFORDABLE ENERGY IN THE WORLD TODAY IS
[00:48:12.155]FOSSIL FUELS.
[00:48:13.757]I GUESS WHAT THE THOUGHT THAT I WANT TO LEAVE YOU WITH IS THAT
[00:48:16.426]IT'S VERY DANGEROUS TO MAKE POLITICAL PLANS TO POWER WORLD
[00:48:23.567]WITH RENEWABLE ENERGY WHEN RENEWABLE TECHNOLOGY STILL HAS
[00:48:28.272]SEVERE DEFICIENCIES AND COSTS IN PERFORMANCE, AND THERE IS NOT A
[00:48:32.042]SINGLE EXAMPLE IN THE WORLD, YET, OF A COUNTRY THAT HAS
[00:48:37.314]SUCCESSFULLY POWERED ITS DEVELOPMENT OR ANY SIGNIFICANT
[00:48:39.750]PART OF ITS IT VEL PIMENTS WITH SOLAR PANELS, WIND TURBINES,
[00:48:44.121]ELECTRIC VEHICLES -- I MEAN, ALL OF THESE THINGS HAVE
[00:48:48.058]A FUTURE.
[00:48:48.625]BUT, UM, IT'S NOT A FOUNDATION FOR LIFTING WHOLE COUNTRIES OUT
[00:48:54.665]OF POVERTY.
[00:48:55.565]CHINA HAS LIFTED 680 MILLION PEOPLE OUT OF EXTREME POVERTY
[00:49:02.072]SINCE 1990.
[00:49:02.539]THEY COULDN'T HAVE DONE IT WITH GREEN ENERGY.
[00:49:07.010]AND I DON'T THINK WE SHOULD EXPECT OTHER COUNTRIES TO DO SO
[00:49:10.380]AS WELL.
[00:49:12.049]SO WE SHOULD BE VERY CAREFUL HOW HARD WE PUSH.
[00:49:17.554]THE WORLD TO REDUCE EMISSIONS BECAUSE WITH CURRENT AND
[00:49:22.092]FORESEEABLE TECHNOLOGIES, THAT MEANS REDUCING THE USE OF THE
[00:49:25.996]FUELS THAT HAVE A PROVEN TRACK RECORD IN MAKING IT THE WORLD
[00:49:32.369]SAFER, HEALTHIER, CLEANER, LONGER ALIVE, MORE OPPORTUNITY.
[00:49:36.006]THANK YOU VERY MUCH.
[00:49:36.707][ APPLAUSE ] >> WELL, UM, THANK YOU VERY
[00:49:47.918]MUCH, DR. LEWIS, AND DR. METCALF.
[00:49:51.888]WE'RE GOING TO HAVE A CONVERSATION NOW.
[00:49:55.759]DR. LEWIS SORT OF BLINDED US WITH SCIENCE AND I DON'T THINK
[00:50:01.498]WE'RE HERE TO DISCUSS THE SCIENCE SO MUCH.
[00:50:04.735]WE HAVE A PhD IN ECONOMICS AND ONE IN GOVERNMENT, I HAVE ONE IN
[00:50:09.239]JURIS PRUDENCE AND SOCIAL POLICY.
[00:50:12.609]SO I DON'T FEEL THAT I CAN HELP TO HAVE A DEBATE MODERATED
[00:50:16.813]DEBATE ABOUT THE SCIENCE AND ABOUT THE VALIDITY OF ALL
[00:50:21.685]THESE CHARTS.
[00:50:22.052]WE DIDN'T GIVE DR. METCALF TO DIG THROUGH THOSE IPCC REPORTS
[00:50:26.790]TO COME UP WITH CHARTS.
[00:50:28.759]>> HE HAD SOME SCIENCE CHARTS.
[00:50:30.460]HE STARTED WITH SCIENCE CHARTS.
[00:50:32.496]>> OKAY, WE ALL HAD SOME SCIENCE.
[00:50:35.565]I WANT TO STICK INITIALLY TO THE QUESTION TONIGHT AND I'LL PUT IT
[00:50:39.970]THIS WAY JUST TO GET IT STARTED BEFORE WE GET ON TO LARGER
[00:50:43.073]ISSUES AND THAT IS I KNOW THAT DR. METCALF TALKED ABOUT A
[00:50:48.578]CARBON TAX, AND SOME PEOPLE TALK ABOUT CAP ASK TRADE.
[00:50:51.648]ASSUMING FOR A MOMENT THAT WE WANT TO LIMIT EMISSIONS, WHY IS
[00:50:56.153]THE CARBON TAX THE BETTER, UM -- THE BETTER APPROACH AND WOULD
[00:51:01.625]YOU AGREE WITH THAT?
[00:51:03.160]IF WE WERE TO SAY THAT WE DO HAVE TO LIMIT EMISSIONS.
[00:51:09.966]>> SO, UH, I THINK THE CHOICE BETWEEN A CAP AND TRADE PROGRAM
[00:51:13.437]AND A CARBON TAX REALLY COMES DOWN TO WHICH IS POLITICALLY
[00:51:19.776]MORE FEASIBLE, WHICH IS MORE PALATABLE.
[00:51:23.680]REALLY FROM AN ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE, EXTRAORDINARILY
[00:51:26.883]SIMILAR.
[00:51:27.350]A CAP AND TRADE SYSTEM CAPS TOTAL EMISSIONS CREATES
[00:51:33.890]ALLOWANCES, PERMITS, IF YOU WILL, TO -- FOR THE BURNING OF
[00:51:37.060]FOSSIL FUELS THAT RELEASE EMISSIONS THAT NEED TO BE
[00:51:40.564]SURRENDERED BY POWER PLANTS, INDUSTRY, IN THE COURSE OF DOING
[00:51:46.002]BUSINESS, AND BECAUSE THOSE PERMITS ARE SCARCE IN NUMBER --
[00:51:50.240]SCARCE IN NUMBER RELATIVE TO BUSINESSES AS USUAL, THEY HAVE
[00:51:54.344]VALUE.
[00:51:54.644]THAT THEN CREATES BY PUTTING VALUE ON THE PERMIT, IT THEN
[00:51:58.248]RAISES THE COST OF BURNING FOSSIL FUELS.
[00:52:01.685]WHICH THEN, THOUGH, THE GOAL OF COURSE IS THAT -- IS THAT WATT
[00:52:06.623]YOU -- WHAT YOU WANT TO DO IS ECONOMIES WORK BEST WHEN THE
[00:52:09.659]COST OF INPUT THAT ARE USED IN THE PRODUCTION OF GOODS AND
[00:52:14.498]SERVICES REFLECT ALL OF THE COSTS; THE COST OF EXTRACTION,
[00:52:17.334]THE COST OF PUTTING MANUFACTURING, AND THE COST OF
[00:52:23.940]ANY DAMAGES PROVIDED. AND THAT'S WHAT THE PERMIT PRICE
[00:52:26.977]WHICH SORT OF TACK ON.
[00:52:29.179]SIMILARLY FOR A CARBON TAX.
[00:52:30.480]SO THERE YOU'RE SETTING A PRICE, YOU'RE SAYING HERE'S THE PRICE
[00:52:33.383]WE'RE GOING TO TACK ON, AND THEN WE'LL LET MARKETS OPERATE.
[00:52:36.820]EITHER WAY, MARKETS ARE THEN LEFT TO OPERATE SO THAT
[00:52:42.659]BUSINESSES, CONSUMERS, CAN ALL MAKE THEIR OWN CHOICES AS TO HOW
[00:52:46.229]BEST TO RESPOND TO THIS PRICE SIGNAL THAT IS TELLING THEM THAT
[00:52:50.133]THE TRUE COSTS OF FOSSIL FUELS REFLECTS THESE ADDITIONAL
[00:52:54.938]DAMAGES.
[00:52:55.305]SO IT REALLY THEN COMES DOWN TO WHAT IS POLITICALLY MORE
[00:53:02.178]FEASIBLE BACK IN 2009 WHEN THE CAP AND BILL TRADE PASSED, IT
[00:53:10.954]LOOKED LIKE CAP AND TRADE WAS THE FLAVOR OF THE DAY, THIS IS
[00:53:13.823]THE WAY TO GO FORWARD.
[00:53:15.225]NOW THERE'S A VIEW IN WASHINGTON THAT WHILE WE TRIED CAP AND
[00:53:18.562]TRADE, THAT DIDN'T WORK.
[00:53:20.063]CARBON TAX, MAYBE THAT'S THE WAY WE SHOULD GO BECAUSE WE CAN USE
[00:53:22.966]SOME OF THAT REVENUE TO ADDRESS REAL -- ADDRESS THE NEED FOR
[00:53:26.836]REVENUE IF WE WANT TO LOWER OTHER TAXES.
[00:53:30.206]SO AT THE END OF THE DAY, IT'S HOWEVER YOU CAN BUILD A
[00:53:33.743]POLITICAL COALITION, EITHER WAY YOU'RE USING MARKET MECHANISMS
[00:53:38.081]TO HELP DRIVE THE ECONOMY IN A PRODUCTIVE WAY.
[00:53:40.984]>> DO YOU HAVE ANY VIEW ON WHICH OF THOSE IS A BETTER CHOICE IF
[00:53:44.120]WE'RE GOING TO USE ONE OF THEM?
[00:53:45.822]>> YES.
[00:53:47.824]NEITHER.
[00:53:48.158]THAT WOULD BE MY VIEW.
[00:53:48.792]I THINK THEY BOTH, UH, SHARE THE SAME MISTAKE IN
[00:53:54.397]PREMISE THAT YOU CAN SOME HOW FUNDAMENTALLY MOVE THE WORLD IN
[00:53:57.968]A BETTER DIRECTION BY HANDICAPPING THE FUELS OR THE
[00:54:04.674]ENERGY SOURCES THAT ARE THE MOST ECONOMICAL.
[00:54:10.647]ONE OF MY -- ONE PERSON THAT I'M PROUD TO CALL A FRIEND IS
[00:54:16.086]PROFESSOR JOHN CHRISTY WHOSE A CLIMATOLOGIST, HE LIKES TO
[00:54:21.391]SAY IF IT'S NOT ECONOMICALLY SUSTAINABLE, IT'S NOT
[00:54:23.994]SUSTAINABLE.
[00:54:24.394]SO YOU HAVE TO ASK YOURSELF WHY IS IT THAT AFTER 22 YEARS OR
[00:54:28.164]MORE OF CLIMATE NEGOTIATIONS WE'RE STILL WRESTLING WITH A
[00:54:35.739]TRULY GLOBAL TREATY OR WHY IS IT THAT EVEN THOUGH LEGISLATION HAS
[00:54:41.111]BEEN INTRODUCED TIME AND TIME AGAIN -- I DID A STUDY WHERE I
[00:54:50.720]DETERMINED THERE WAS SOMETHING LIKE 280 BILLS CONTAINING THE
[00:54:53.823]WORD GREENHOUSE GASES, SEVERAL SCORE OVER A HUNDRED OF WHICH
[00:54:58.428]THAT WERE REGULATORY INTRODUCED FROM 1990 TO THE PRESENT.
[00:55:02.599]YOU CAN SAY WELL, IT'S THOSE TERRIBLE FOSSIL FUEL LOBBYISTS
[00:55:05.969]WHO ARE GETTING IN THE WAY, BUT I THINK THE REAL REASON IS THAT
[00:55:11.641]PEOPLE ARE UNWILLING TO BE FORCED TO RELY ON AN INFERIOR,
[00:55:20.316]THAT IS TO SAY LESS AFFORDABLE AND POORER PERFORMING ENERGY
[00:55:25.321]SOURCE, THAN A BETTER ONE WHEN ENERGY IS SO CRITICAL TO ALL
[00:55:28.925]PHASES OF ECONOMIC LIFE.
[00:55:31.027]ENERGY IS REALLY THE MASTER RESOURCE.
[00:55:32.896]IT'S WHAT GIVES US THE POWER OVER NATURAL THINGS TO TRANSFORM
[00:55:37.467]THEM, COMBINE THEM, MOVE THEM IN WAYS THAT TURN THEM INTO REAL
[00:55:41.171]RESOURCE THAT IS VALUABLE COMMODITIES FOR HUMAN BEINGS.
[00:55:45.308]>> CAN I ASK A QUESTION ABOUT THIS?
[00:55:47.343]>> SURE.
[00:55:47.811]>> WHY WOULD ANYBODY -- I MEAN, I LIKE DRIVING MY CAR AS MUCH AS
[00:55:51.281]ANYBODY, AND HEATING MY HOME -- WHY WOULD THERE BE ANY KIND OF A
[00:55:56.920]CONSPIRACY AGAINST THE PRODUCERS OF COAL IF PEOPLE DIDN'T
[00:56:03.293]HONESTLY BELIEVE THAT THERE WAS A PROBLEM AND THAT THERE WAS
[00:56:06.796]CLIMATE CHANGE.
[00:56:07.597]IN FACT, OF COURSE, WE HAVE ALL KINDS
[00:56:10.467]KINDS OF SCIENTIFIC
[00:56:17.741]EVIDENCE ON THE OTHER SIDE.
[00:56:18.475]SO WHY WOULD ANYBODY MAKE A FUSS ABOUT THIS IF THEY DIDN'T THINK
[00:56:22.479]THERE WAS A REAL PROBLEM.
[00:56:23.880]>> THEY DO, MANY PEOPLE DO.
[00:56:26.349]BUT WHAT I'M SAYING IS THAT BOTH CAP AND TRADE AND CARBON TAX
[00:56:30.220]HAVE THE SAME BASIC STRATEGY, WHICH IS WE ARE GOING TO MOVE
[00:56:33.757]THE WORLD TOWARD A NEW ENERGY SYSTEM, NOT BY DEVELOPING NEW
[00:56:38.294]ENERGIES THAT ARE BETTER THAN FOSSIL ENERGY, THAT ARE
[00:56:43.266]GENUINELY CHEAPER WITHOUT SUBSIDIES WITHOUT MARKET
[00:56:47.270]MANDATE, WITHOUT PREFERENTIAL TAXES.
[00:56:49.005]WE'RE JUST GOING TO HANDICAP THE ENERGY SOURCES THAT THE GLOBAL
[00:56:53.343]MARKET PLACE HAS SELECTED OVER SEVERAL HUNDRED YEARS WITH
[00:56:58.581]MILLIONS AND MILLIONS OF INDEPENDENT ACTORS, YOU KNOW,
[00:57:03.486]RISKING THEIR OWN CAPITOL AND VOTE WITH THEIR OWN DOLLARS.
[00:57:06.556]WE'RE GOING TO TRY TO BUILD A NEW SYSTEM JUST BY PENALIZING
[00:57:09.659]THE STUFF THAT WORKS.
[00:57:10.860]I JUST WANT TO GIVE YOU A QUICK ANALOGY.
[00:57:14.297]THAT'S NOT HOW HENRY FORD DID IT.
[00:57:16.800]THERE WAS ACTUALLY A TIME IN THIS COUNTRY WHERE HORSE
[00:57:19.736]EMISSIONS POSE AD VERY SERIOUS PROBLEM TO PEOPLE.
[00:57:24.574]ROUND 1900, 27% OF U.S. FARM LAND WAS DEVOTED JUST TO FEEDING
[00:57:30.079]HORSES.
[00:57:30.547]HORSES WERE DYING BY THE 10'S OF THOUSANDS IN MAJOR CITIES WHICH
[00:57:34.450]WAS A VERY BIG HEALTH HAZARD.
[00:57:36.986]THEY ALSO HAD EMISSIONS WHICH ATTRACTS FLY AND SO ON.
[00:57:40.356]IF YOU WERE TO JUST EXTRAPOLATE WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF THE NUMBER
[00:57:44.360]OF HORSES CONTINUED ALONG WITH POPULATION GROWTH, SOMEWHERE
[00:57:50.133]AROUND THE 1950 MORE FARM LAND THAN WE HAVE TODAY TO FEED
[00:57:53.203]PEOPLE WOULD BE GOING INTO FEEDING HORSES.
[00:57:55.371]NOW, WHAT DID HENRY FORD DO?
[00:57:57.574]DID HE LOBBY FOR A MANURE TAX?
[00:58:01.477]DID HE LOBBY FOR A HORSE PORTFOLIO STANDARD THAT, YOU
[00:58:05.215]KNOW, THAT UH -- OR FOR A VEHICLE PORTFOLIO STANDARD THAT
[00:58:08.718]SO MANY MOTORIZED VEHICLES WOULD HAVE TO BE BOUGHT
[00:58:13.690]IN A CERTAIN MARKET PLACE?
[00:58:16.326]>> IF I COULD JUST CUT IN -- >> A CAP AND TRADE PROGRAM.
[00:58:20.730]>> IF I CAN JUST CUT IN AND POINT OUT THAT NOBODY DENIES THE
[00:58:24.033]POWERFUL BENEFITS OF FOSSIL FUELS.
[00:58:25.969]THEY REALLY HAVE GENERATE A GREAT DEAL OF ECONOMIC GROWTH.
[00:58:29.405]>> I THINK A LOT OF PEOPLE DENY IT.
[00:58:31.107]YOU DON'T.
[00:58:33.243]>> NO, NO DISPUTE THERE.
[00:58:34.477]OF COURSE I WOULD BE CAREFUL THAT YOU DON'T IN TERMS OF
[00:58:37.981]THE -- SOME OF THE DATA AND EVIDENCE YOU SHOWED US, YOU
[00:58:45.388]DON'T WANT TO BE CONFLATING ENERGY ACCESS AND SCIENTIFIC
[00:58:46.723]PROGRESS.
[00:58:47.090]A LOT OF THE INCREASES IN ENERGY COMES ABOUT IN SCIENTIFIC
[00:58:51.828]PROGRESS THAT IS NOT ENERGY-RELATED.
[00:58:56.466]FOSSIL FUEL ENERGY IS AN INCREDIBLY CONCENTRATED FORM OF
[00:58:59.836]ENERGY.
[00:59:00.169]WE'RE NOT PRICING IT APPROPRIATELY.
[00:59:02.171]NOW, AS SOMEONE WHO BELIEVES IN MARKETS, I WOULD THINK THAT YOU
[00:59:05.742]WOULD BE FIRMLY IN FAVOR OF PRICING ENERGY TO INCLUDE THE --
[00:59:12.482]ANY DAMAGES THAT ARE INCLUDED THERE.
[00:59:14.384]NOW, YOU SAID YOU'RE WILLING IO STIPULATE DAMAGES FOR THE SAKE
[00:59:18.821]OF DISCUSSION, BUT IT'S NOT THAT WE'RE PENALIZING FOSSIL FUELS,
[00:59:22.225]IT'S THAT WE SIMPLY WANT THEM TO REFLECT THEIR TRUE COST.
[00:59:26.729]>> WELL, I THINK YOU DO THAT.
[00:59:27.997]I THINK YOU GENUINELY WANT TO PRICE THEM TO REFLECT THEIR TRUE
[00:59:33.202]COSTS.
[00:59:33.770]I WOULD HAVE AN EPISTEMOLOGICAL QUARREL WITH YOU.
[00:59:45.848]THE EXTERNALITY ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON INPUTS FROM THESE
[00:59:52.121]MODELS, BOTH IN TERMS OF HOW HOT THE WORLD GETS, BUT ALSO THE
[00:59:57.427]IMPACT THAT SUPPOSEDLY RESULT FROM THE INCREASES IN
[01:00:02.198]TEMPERATURES.
[01:00:02.632]AND THEN THERE'S, YOU KNOW, THE ECONOMICS OF
[01:00:07.003]PRICING CARBON IS AS SPECULATIVE, I THINK, AS THE
[01:00:13.643]CLIMATOLOGY BECAUSE WHAT DETERMINES THE DAMAGE OF SOME
[01:00:16.779]CHANGE IN THE WEATHER VERY MUCH HAS TO DO WITH CHANGES IN
[01:00:19.816]TECHNOLOGY.
[01:00:20.216]THAT WAS THE POINT OF MY OTHER DISCUSSION ABOUT HOW
[01:00:23.853]DROUGHT-RELATED DEATH HAS DROPPED BY 99.8% DESPITE WARMING
[01:00:28.624]OF THE CLIMATE.
[01:00:31.094]NO ONE CAN FORECAST TECHNOLOGY CHANGE SOMETIMES EVEN A YEAR IN
[01:00:36.232]ADVANCE, FIVE YEARS IN ADVANCE, LET ALONE OUT TO THE YEAR 2100.
[01:00:40.570]THESE SOCIAL COSTS OF CARBON MODELS WHICH ESTIMATE THE HIDDEN
[01:00:44.307]COST OF CARBON, THEY GO OUT TO THE YEAR 2300.
[01:00:48.177]THAT'S WHEN CAPTAIN JAMES T. KIRK
[01:00:50.680]IS AN OLD MAN IN RETIREMENT BY THAT POINT.
[01:00:55.318]>> THIS IS TRULY UNKNOWABLE AND I WOULD ARGUE THAT THE ESTIMATES
[01:01:02.125]ARE JUST YOU KNOW SHEER GUESS WORK.
[01:01:03.926]>> OKAY, GO AHEAD.
[01:01:05.028]>> THE DIFFICULTY WE HAVE IS THAT GREEN HOUSE GASES ARE A
[01:01:09.599]STOCK POLLUTANT.
[01:01:11.434]THEY PERSIST FOR HUNDREDS OF YEARS IN THE ATMOSPHERE,
[01:01:15.004]THOUSANDS OF YEARS FOR SOME OF THESE GASES.
[01:01:17.607]IT'S TRUE WE'RE WORK WITHIN IMPERFECT MODELS AND IT IS VERY
[01:01:20.743]EASY TO CHERRY PICK AND SHOW HOW MODELS ARE -- HAVE BEEN WRONG ON
[01:01:25.048]SO MANY DIMENSIONS.
[01:01:26.849]YOU SHOWED US THE SORT OF THE CLIMATE HIATUS, OF COURSE
[01:01:31.821]THERE'S NEW EVIDENCE ON DEEP WATER SOAKING UP A TEMPERATURE.
[01:01:38.494]THE SCIENTISTS CAN DEBATE ALL NIGHT LONG WHAT'S GOING ON.
[01:01:42.498]IT'S LIKE WE HAVE A HOUSE THAT HAS A SLOW FIRE IN THE WALL.
[01:01:45.201]WE CAN'T SEE IT.
[01:01:47.537]WE THINK MAYBE IT'S BACK THERE.
[01:01:50.006]BUT THE PROBLEM IS IF WE WAIT TOO LONG TO ACT, IF WE WAIT FOR
[01:01:54.577]PRECISION IN MODELING, IF WE WAIT FOR PRECISION IN MEASURING
[01:01:59.282]DAMAGES, WE MAY BE WAITING TOO LONG.
[01:02:02.185]SO IT CALLS FOR PRUDENT -- NOT DRACONIAN ACTION, BUT IT CALLS
[01:02:09.292]FOR PRUDENT ACTION, STARTING NOW, AS WE CONTINUE TO LEARN.
[01:02:12.295]IT'S A CLASSIC EXAMPLE OF DECISION-MAKING WITH INCOMPLETE
[01:02:16.833]AND IMPERFECT INFORMATION.
[01:02:18.601]YOU CAN WAIT FOR PERFECT INFORMATION.
[01:02:20.203]>> BEFORE WE CONTINUE THIS, I'D LIKE TO REMIND YOU TO PLEASE USE
[01:02:25.875]CARDS SO THE USHERS WILL BE HANDING OUT NOW TO WRITE YOUR
[01:02:29.078]OWN QUESTIONS DOWN.
[01:02:31.814]AND HAND THEM BACK TO THE USHER AND THEN WE WILL ASK SOME OF
[01:02:35.118]THOSE QUESTIONS ON STAGE IN A COUPLE OF MOMENT.
[01:02:38.921]>> MAY I JUST MAKE ONE FURTHER POINT HERE.
[01:02:43.126]WHICH IS THAT GIB, I THINK ONE OF THE THINGS YOU DO, AND PURE
[01:02:49.465]ECONOMISTS DO AND I'M -- SO I'M DISTINGUISHING YOU FROM THE
[01:02:52.935]PEOPLE WHO I -- AND I THINK THEY'RE OUT THERE WHO JUST WANT
[01:02:55.471]TO GET FOSSIL FUELS BECAUSE THEY HATE DIRTY, POLLUTING FOSSIL
[01:03:00.109]FUELS.
[01:03:00.443]BUT THE WAY YOU'RE TAKE -- TALKING IT SOUNDS LIKE YOU THINK
[01:03:04.347]THE ONLY REAL DISTORTION THERE IS IN OUR ECONOMY IS THE
[01:03:09.552]EXTERNALITY FROM FOSSIL FUEL CONSUMPTION, THE CO2 EMISSIONS.
[01:03:15.358]AND THAT, THEREFORE, WE KNOW THAT IF WE JUST APPLY A CARBON
[01:03:18.094]TAX WE CAN FIX THAT AND MAKE THINGS MORE EFFICIENT.
[01:03:21.164]I WOULD ARGUE NO.
[01:03:22.431]THERE ARE ALL KINDS OF DISTORTIONS IN OUR ECONOMY THAT ARE
[01:03:27.503]THE RESULT OF OVER-TAXATION, OVER SPENDING, THERE ARE ALL
[01:03:31.507]KINDS OF COSTS THERE THAT ARE ALREADY CONCENTRATED ON FOSSIL
[01:03:34.911]FUEL RELATED INDUSTRIES. IF YOU LOOK AT EPA'S.
[01:03:39.448]UH, YOU KNOW, UM -- MERCURY, AIR TOXIC STANDARDS
[01:03:46.422]RULE.
[01:03:48.324]EPA'S ESTIMATE, $9.6 MILLIONS THAT FALLS DIRECTLY ON POWER
[01:03:53.996]PLANTS, THAT ALREADY RAISES THE COST OF OPERATING THOSE.
[01:03:58.134]THE COST OF ELECTRICITY IF THE ARE HUNDREDS OF SUCH RULES THAT
[01:04:02.672]APPLY TO FOSSIL FUEL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION ACTIVITIES.
[01:04:06.175]YOU HAVE, FOR EXAMPLE, THE FACT THAT WE MENTIONED THIS
[01:04:09.679]EARLIER -- I MENTIONED THIS EARLIER TODAY THAT YOU HAVE MOST
[01:04:12.582]OF THE COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD DO NOT RECOGNIZE PROPERTY
[01:04:16.919]RIGHTS TO SUB-SURFACE MINERALS THAT DRAMATICALLY LIMITS THE
[01:04:20.489]PRODUCTION OF FOSSIL ENERGY, THEREFORE REDUCES THE SUPPLY,
[01:04:24.827]THEREFORE INCREASE THE PRICE.
[01:04:26.195]>> LET ME ASK ANOTHER-- >> SO IT'S NOT -- AND THEN WE
[01:04:31.133]HAVE THINGS LIKE GAS TAXES.
[01:04:35.137]IT 'S FAR FROM CLEAR EVEN IF THERE WERE AN EXTERNALITY THAT
[01:04:39.542]YOU COULD IDENTIFY AND QUALIFY WE WOULDN'T HAVE ALREADY PAID
[01:04:42.945]FOR MUCH OF IT ANYWAY.
[01:04:44.680]>> IS THIS A SORT OF CLASSIC PROBLEM OF COLLECTIVE ACTION?
[01:04:48.985]I MEAN, I KNOW YOU MENTIONED DR. METCALF, YOU SORT OF
[01:04:52.054]MENTIONED WE OUGHT TO BE LEADERS AND THEN YOU SAID THAT IF WE,
[01:04:54.991]UH -- IF NOBODY ELSE FOLLOWS US WE'LL HAVE TO FIGURE OUT
[01:04:59.428]WHAT TO DO.
[01:04:59.695]IS IT SOME HOW WRONG FOR US TO LIMIT OUR CARBON EMISSIONS OR
[01:05:04.667]TAX OR WHATEVER, EVEN IF NOBODY ELSE FOLLOWS US?
[01:05:07.903]>> LOOK, IF WE LIMIT OUR EMISSIONS AND OTHER COUNTRIES
[01:05:13.909]DON'T THEN IT WON'T -- WE REALLY WON'T HAVE ADDRESSED THE
[01:05:19.015]PROBLEM.
[01:05:20.916]SO IT IS A PROBLEM OF COLLECTIVE ACTION AND IT IS A PROBLEM THAT
[01:05:23.552]REQUIRES AN INTERNATIONAL AND COLLECTIVE SOLUTION.
[01:05:26.055]THIS IS WHAT MAKES THE CLIMATE NEGOTIATIONS SO DIFFICULT.
[01:05:31.294]I TRIED TO BE VERY CLEAR.
[01:05:32.662]THIS IS A VERY DIFFICULT POLITICAL PROBLEM.
[01:05:36.098]IT'S DIFFICULT BECAUSE THE COSTS ARE CURRENT AND THE BENEFITS --
[01:05:41.103]DIFFICULT TO MEASURE, AND IN THE FUTURE THAT'S ONE ASPECT OF IT
[01:05:43.673]THAT MAKES IT VERY DIFFICULT.
[01:05:45.708]THE SECOND ASPECT IS THAT WE'RE ASKING COUNTRIES AROUND THE
[01:05:51.847]WORLD TO ACT COLLECTIVELY TO SOLVE A PROBLEM AT TIMES WHEN WE
[01:05:56.152]HAVE REAL CONCERNS ABOUT ECONOMIC GROWTH EN AFRICA, AND
[01:06:00.156]PARTS OF ASIA AND SOUTH AMERICA.
[01:06:04.727]WE HAVE ALL KINDS OF DEVELOPMENT ISSUE WE WISH TO ADDRESS.
[01:06:08.831]SO YES, IT MAKES IT A HUGELY DIFFICULT PROBLEM.
[01:06:11.467]WE'RE TALKING ABOUT, UM, THE NEED FOR THINKING HOW WE CAN
[01:06:17.106]TRANSFER TECHNOLOGIES TO HELP COUNTRY THAT ARE TOO POOR TO
[01:06:20.576]REDUCE THEIR EMISSIONS, TO HELP THEM FINANCIALLY WITH IT.
[01:06:23.412]SO IT LEADS TO AN EXTRAORDINARILY COMPLICATED
[01:06:27.283]PROBLEM.
[01:06:27.616]IT'S NO SURPRISE TO ME THAT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY HAS
[01:06:29.852]MOVED SO SLOWLY IN ADDRESSING THIS PROBLEM.
[01:06:33.356]THAT DOESN'T MEAN THAT IT ISN'T A PROBLEM.
[01:06:36.392]>> ONE QUESTION I HAVE HERE IS WHAT WILL IT TAKE FOR THE PUBLIC
[01:06:39.228]TO INTERNALIZE THE RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AT A SUFFICIENT
[01:06:43.799]LEVEL TO ACT SINCE THIS SORT OF GETS TO THE POLITICAL, UH -- THE
[01:06:47.903]POLITICAL AND LEADERSHIP QUESTION.
[01:06:51.774]DOES ANYBODY WANT TO TALK ABOUT THAT, JUST NOT DENYING THAT IT'S
[01:06:56.011]TRUE?
[01:06:56.312]>> I THINK THERE HAS BEEN AN HONEST, RELENTLESS CAMPAIGN, TO
[01:07:00.349]BRING ABOUT THAT INTERNALIZATION.
[01:07:03.119]AND IT'S -- IN MY VIEW, IT'S FEAR MONGERING.
[01:07:05.988]YOU HEAR IT ALL THE TIME, THAT EVERY TIME THERE'S A HURRICANE,
[01:07:08.891]THERE'S A DROUGHT, IT'S GLOBAL WARMING OR IT'S CLIMATE CHANGE,
[01:07:14.530]AND IT WILL USUALLY BE SAID IN A VERY CAREFUL WAY SO THAT THE
[01:07:19.368]SPEAKER CAN'T BE CRITICIZED FOR BEING UNSCIENTIFIC BECAUSE OF
[01:07:25.975]COURSE SOME GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC CHANGE OVER MANY DECADES CANNOT
[01:07:29.812]BE DETERMINED TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A PARTICULAR EVENT.
[01:07:36.018]PEOPLE ARE SAYING THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH WHAT OUR MODELS
[01:07:39.688]SHOW, THIS IS THE NEW NORMAL.
[01:07:41.891]SO I THINK THERE HAS BEEN A HUGE PUSH TO DO JUST THAT.
[01:07:45.094]AND IF YOU JUST GOOGLE CLIMATE CHANGE OR GLOBAL WARMING, YOU'LL
[01:07:49.198]FIND 10 MILLION SITES AND THE VAST MAJORITY OF THEM WILL BE
[01:07:52.001]ABOUT HOW TERRIBLE ALL THESE TERRIBLE EFFECTS.
[01:07:54.503]I MEAN, THERE ARE LITERALLY REAL HUNDREDS OF THINGS THAT HAVE
[01:07:57.573]BEEN ATTRIBUTED TO CLIMATE CHANGE, SOME OF THEM THAT ARE
[01:08:01.644]JUST RIDICULOUS LIKE INCREASES IN ACNE.
[01:08:04.180]>> HOW ABOUT THE GLACIERS.
[01:08:06.315]>> EXTREME WEATHER IS DEFINITELY ONE OF THE THINGS THAT IS USED
[01:08:09.452]TO TRY TO GET PEOPLE WHERE THEY LIVE.
[01:08:11.420]THIS DISASTER WIPED OUT YOUR HOUSE AND YOU SHED -- YOU KNOW,
[01:08:14.790]IT'S BECAUSE OF GLOBAL WARMING.
[01:08:16.158]THE FACT IS THAT OUR CLIMATE IS A VERY VOLATILE AND DANGEROUS
[01:08:22.598]PLACE.
[01:08:22.898]THAT WAS THE BIG POINT I WAS TRYING TO MAKE AND THAT MAKING
[01:08:25.968]OURSELVES RICHER, MORE TECHNOLOGICALLY ADVANCED IS THE BEST.
[01:08:33.676]TO ME IT'S A VALID CLIMATE POLICY. TRRN HAS DONE MORE TO
[01:08:38.214]MAKE OUR CLIMATE MORE LIVABLE THAN ANYTHING ELSE.
[01:08:40.883]WHAT REAL REALLY WORRIES ME ARE
[01:08:45.453]AGENDAS THAT COULD SUBVERT THIS MARKET-DRIVEN PROCESS OF USING
[01:08:48.991]THE ENERGY IN A MOST AFFORDABLE WAY TO ADVANCE HUMAN NEED.
[01:08:52.394]>> HOW DO YOU RESPOND TO THE CHANCE, ANYWAY, THAT IT'S
[01:08:57.566]INCORRECT -- THE FIRE AND, YOU KNOW, THE
[01:09:00.236]HOUSE THAT YOU CAN'T QUITE SEE IT?
[01:09:02.837]WHAT IF IT'S WRONG?
[01:09:04.206]>> WHAT IF IT'S WRONG?
[01:09:05.808]>> WHAT IF YOU'RE WRONG, I MEAN?
[01:09:07.810]>> WELL, I DON'T KNOW -- WELL, YOU -- I GUESS WE DON'T HAVE
[01:09:10.345]TIME FOR YOU TO TELL ME EXACTLY WHAT I SAID THAT MIGHT BE WRONG,
[01:09:13.849]BUT I WOULD SAY THAT THE -- YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT A RISK-RISK
[01:09:18.053]TRADE OFF HERE.
[01:09:18.587]AND YOU CAN SAY THE SAME THING ABOUT THE CLIMATE AGENDA.
[01:09:22.992]WHAT IF THEY'RE WRONG.
[01:09:24.158]WHAT IF IT REALLY ISN'T POSSIBLE TO LIFT THOSE EXTRA BILLIONS OF
[01:09:29.098]PEOPLE OUT OF DESPERATE POVERTY WITHOUT FOSSIL FUELS?
[01:09:32.635]BUT YOU'VE MADE IT EXPENSIVE TO USE THEM.
[01:09:36.337]WHAT IF THEY'RE WRONG THAT, YOU KNOW, THAT THE GREAT
[01:09:39.942]BREAKTHROUGH IN ELECTRIC VEHICLES AND CARBON CAPTURE IN
[01:09:43.812]WIND TURBINES AND SOLAR PANELS ISN'T RIGHT AROUND THE CORNER SO
[01:09:47.082]THAT WE CAN'T ACTUALLY SUBSTITUTE CLEANER ENERGIES THAT
[01:09:51.687]PERFORM JUST AS WELL ON EVERY OTHER GROUNDS INCLUDING
[01:09:56.325]AFFORDABILITY AS FOSSIL FUELS.
[01:09:57.793]I THINK THAT'S A QUESTION YOU CAN ASK OF ANYBODY IN THIS
[01:10:01.130]DEBATE.
[01:10:01.463]SO THEREFORE IT'S JUST A JUDGMENT CALL THAT YOU HAVE.
[01:10:03.999]WHERE DO YOU THINK THE GREATER RISK TO HUMAN WELFARE-- LIE?
[01:10:08.704]I THINK THE GREATER RISKS TO HUMAN WELFARE LIE IN A GLOBAL
[01:10:13.175]PLAN TO CONTROL HOW THE WORLD USE ENERGY.
[01:10:15.377]THAT REALLY SPOOK ME.
[01:10:16.712]>> SO I THINK THERE'S A FAILURE OF IMAGINATION AT TIMES THAT WE
[01:10:21.116]THINK THAT WE SEE HOW THE WORLD OPERATES AND THAT WE -- THAT WE
[01:10:25.187]NEED TO CONTINUE, WE CAN TWEAK IT A LITTLE BIT, BUT THAT WE
[01:10:28.824]NEED TO CONTINUE IN A PARTICULAR DIRECTION.
[01:10:32.328]IF WE GO BACK TO 1940 AND IMAGINE WHAT THE WORLD WAS LIKE
[01:10:36.832]IN 2010, WE WOULD HAVE ALL KINDS OF THINGS WE COULD IMAGINE.
[01:10:41.003]THERE WOULD BE FLYING SAUCERS, SPACE CARS -- WE WOULDN'T
[01:10:44.406]IMAGINE THE INCREDIBLE POWER OF THE CELLULAR PHONE TO OPEN UP
[01:10:51.513]COMMUNICATIONS IN AFRICA.
[01:10:52.414]WE WOULDN'T UNDERSTAND THAT THE MICROWAVE OVEN WILL HAVE
[01:10:56.485]FUNDAMENTALLY CHANGED EATING AND COOKING HABITS AND FREED UP ALL
[01:11:01.190]KIND OF TIME FOR PEOPLE.
[01:11:02.992]I THINK THAT ONE OF THE REASONS FOR CLIMATE POLICY IS
[01:11:05.661]THAT IT HELPS CREATE THE RIGHT INCENTIVES FOR TECHNOLOGICAL
[01:11:11.133]INNOVATIONS THAT WILL LEAD TO THE NEXT POWER SOURCE, WHETHER
[01:11:15.204]IT'S SMALL MODULE OR NUCLEAR REACTORS, OR WHETHER IT IS
[01:11:20.075]INFUSION POWER.
[01:11:20.576]WHO KNOWS WHAT IT'S GOING TO BE.
[01:11:22.044]I HAVE NO IDEA.
[01:11:23.112]BUT THE PROBLEM IS TO LOCK OURSELVES INTO A TECHNOLOGY THAT
[01:11:27.716]HAS BEEN VERY SUCCESSFUL IN THE PAST AND SAY THAT WE CAN'T
[01:11:31.620]IMAGINE MOVING BEYOND THAT POWER STRIKES ME AS A LIMITED VIEW.
[01:11:35.090]>> AND I WOULD AGREE WITH THAT BECAUSE I DO IMAGINE, UH,
[01:11:39.762]ENERGIES SUPERIOR TO ANYTHING WE HAVE TODAY.
[01:11:41.730]WHETHER IT'S ZERO EMISSIONS CARBON ENERGY OR SOME NON-CARBON
[01:11:47.503]SOURCE.
[01:11:47.836]THE THING IS, NO -- THOUGH, THAT NO ONE HAD TO SKEW THE MARKET IN
[01:11:52.875]A PARTICULAR DIRECTION IN ORDER FOR CELL PHONES TO PROLIFERATE
[01:11:58.313]AND NOT ONLY BECOME CELL PHONES, BUT BECOME EVERYTHING ELSE THAT
[01:12:01.884]WE COULD POSSIBLY WANT A SMALL DEVICE TO BE THEY CAN MONITOR
[01:12:12.394]YOUR HEALTH.
[01:12:13.128]>> MANY TECHNOLOGIES HAVE BENEFITED FROM GOVERNMENT
[01:12:16.231]POLICY.
[01:12:16.632]WE SHOULD RECOGNIZE THAT WHEN THERE ARE DAMAGES WE'RE NOT
[01:12:20.102]PRICING, WE OUGHT TO AT LEAST CORRECT THE PRICE SIGNALS.
[01:12:23.305]>> BUT NOW WE'RE BACK TO THE DISCUSSION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
[01:12:25.908]WE ACTUALLY HAVE INCORRECT PRICING.
[01:12:29.912]ANOTHER FOR EXAMPLE ANOTHER DISTORTION IN THE MARKET PLACE
[01:12:33.348]IS RIGHT NOW IS THAT IN THE UNITED STATES YOU CAN'T EXPORT
[01:12:38.187]CRUDE OIL.
[01:12:41.824]THAT HAS LIMITED CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES,
[01:12:46.995]THAT PROBABLY WOULD HAVE BEEN MORE DISCOVERY OF IT.
[01:12:49.698]>> WE'RE ACTUALLY EXPORTING A LOT OF REFINED PRODUCTS.
[01:12:53.135]THERE ARE WAYS AROUND THAT.
[01:12:55.070]IT'S REALLY NOT A BIG ISSUE SUN A TOTALLY IRRATIONAL POLICY THAT
[01:13:00.609]HYDROCARBON MOLECULES IN THIS FORM CAN BE EXPORTED BUT NOT IN
[01:13:03.078]THAT FORM IF.
[01:13:04.079]THAT'S NOT ECONOMICALLY EFFICIENT POLICY.
[01:13:06.648]SO CAN WHAT I'M SAYING IS THAT RIGHT NOW THE UNITED STATES IS
[01:13:10.185]FINALLY CONTRIBUTING TO AN EXPANSION, AGAIN THIS HASN'T
[01:13:14.323]HAPPENED IN DECADES, OF THE GLOBAL OIL SUPPLY, WHICH IS
[01:13:18.894]LOWER THE PRICE OF OIL, WHICH IS INCREASING THE CONSUMPTION.
[01:13:22.898]WHAT I'M ARGUING IS THAT'S ANOTHER POLICY DISTORTION
[01:13:26.268]THAT ACTUALLY CONTRIBUTED TO KEEPING THE PRICE OF OIL UP.
[01:13:29.671]YOU COULD SAYT THE OPEC ITSELF TO THE EXTENT IT HAS BEEN A
[01:13:37.079]SUCCESSFUL CARTEL.
[01:13:38.580]>> THE ENERGY MARKETS DISPUTE THAT.
[01:13:40.015]THE EXPORT BAN HAS DONE NOTHING TO DO TO THE PRICE OF OIL.
[01:13:44.286]>> THE EXPORT BAN WAS TOTAL HOKEY.
[01:13:48.123]THE ENERGY WEAPON IS TOTAL HOOEY, BUT SOME PEOPLE THINK
[01:13:52.694]THAT OPEC AT TIMES HAS OPERATED IN A CARTEL TYPE FASHION,
[01:13:58.133]PUSHING UP THE PRICE OF OIL, DISCOURAGING ITS CONSUMPTION.
[01:14:01.870]WHAT I'M SAYING IS THERE ARE ALL KINDS OF DISTORTIONS IN THE
[01:14:04.640]PRICE OF FOSSIL ENERGY THAT RESULT ALREADY FROM REGULATIONS,
[01:14:09.244]FROM TAXES, FROM BANS, AND SO ON.
[01:14:12.848]YOU CAN'T -- YOU'RE PRETENDING THAT EVERYTHING IS A PERFECT
[01:14:15.984]FREE MARKET OUT THERE WITH RELATION TO FOSSIL ENERGY EXCEPT
[01:14:20.989]FOR THE EXTERNALITY WHICH YOU THINK YOU CAN CALCULATE.
[01:14:24.126]>> BUT YOU'RE TALKING OIL, COAL IS THE ISSUE HERE.
[01:14:27.396]COAL IS THE ISSUE HERE, IT'S NOT AN OIL PROBLEM.
[01:14:30.666]COAL IS THE MAJOR SOURCE OF GREEN HOUSE GASES.
[01:14:34.036]THIS IS WHAT MAKE THIS IS PARTICULARLY HARD PROBLEM, THE
[01:14:39.274]UNITED STATES IS THE SAUDI ARABIA OF COAL.
[01:14:42.010]WE HAVE A POWERFUL INTEREST GROUP THAT IS FIGHTING ANY
[01:14:45.180]POLICY TO REDUCE THE VALUE OF THEIR ASSETS AND I CAN
[01:14:49.017]UNDERSTAND THAT POINT OF VIEW.
[01:14:50.319]BUT WE NEED TO RECOGNIZE THAT IT IS AN ISSUE THAT WILL NOT BE
[01:14:58.794]ADDRESSED BY SIMPLY LETTING THE MARKET OPERATE.
[01:15:02.064]>> I HAVE A QUESTION FROM I THINK IS FROM TWITTER, WILL AN
[01:15:06.401]ECONOMIC INCENTIVE FOR CLEAN ENERGY USE MAKE THAT ENERGY
[01:15:08.837]CHEAPER BY INCREASING CONSUMPTION IN THAT SECTOR?
[01:15:13.041]SO SHOULD THERE BE INCENTIVES SO THAT IT DOES BRING THE PRICE
[01:15:16.478]DOWN AND THE TECHNOLOGY UP?
[01:15:17.946]THINGS LIKE WIND ENERGY, SOLAR ENERGY, SO FORTH.
[01:15:21.750]>> WE'VE SEEN THE PRODUCTION TAX CREDITS FOR WIND HAVE BEEN QUITE
[01:15:28.724]SUCCESSFUL IN HELPING TO BRING MORE WIND ONLINE WHICH HAS
[01:15:34.329]ALLOWED MANUFACTURERS TO LEARNING BY DOING, TO LEARN
[01:15:37.199]WAYS, TO BRING THE COST DOWN, WE SEE BIGGER ROADS, BIGGER
[01:15:41.570]TURBINES, LARGER GENERATORS.
[01:15:43.305]SO THAT THE COST HAS COME DOWN.
[01:15:46.909]IT'S A KIND OF -- IT'S A SLIGHTLY -- BARGAIN IN THE SENSE
[01:15:53.916]THAT SUBSIDIES TO CLEAN ENERGY CAN HELP AN INFANT INDUSTRY, BUT
[01:16:03.392]THEY DON'T NECESSARILY HELP BEYOND A CERTAIN POINT WHEN YOU
[01:16:06.395]GET TO A LEVEL OF MATURITY.
[01:16:09.131]MORE TO THE POINT SUBSIDIES END UP REDUCING THE COST OF ENERGY
[01:16:13.268]OVERALL WHICH HAS THE EFFECT OF SENDING THE WRONG SIGNAL TO
[01:16:16.204]FINAL CONSUMERS THAT GEE, MAYBE THERE ARE WAYS I CAN TWEAK
[01:16:20.309]THE REDUCTION -- PRODUCTION PROCESS TO REDUCE MY ENERGY USE
[01:16:23.211]AND STILL BE PRODUCTIVE AT PRODUCING GOODS AND SERVICES
[01:16:26.982]THAT ARE VALUABLE.
[01:16:30.552]>> WELL, I MEAN, I THINK IT -- I THINK IT SPEAKS VOLUMES THAT
[01:16:34.256]THERE ARE CERTAIN ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES WHICH HAVE REALLY
[01:16:40.495]SPREAD ALL OVER THE COUNTRY, WIND TURBINES IN PARTICULAR.,
[01:16:48.303]UM, THAT HAVE THE SIGNIFICANT MARKET SHARE THEY DO BECAUSE OF
[01:16:51.974]MANDATES, WHICH IS SIMPLY A LAW THAT SAYS YOU HAVE TO DERIVE SO
[01:16:57.145]MUCH -- SUCH PERCENT OF YOUR ELECTRICITY FROM THIS SOURCE AND
[01:17:01.483]THE PRODUCTION TAX CREDIT.
[01:17:03.986]WHAT THIS SUGGESTS TO HE IS THAT THESE TECHNOLOGIES REALLY DON'T
[01:17:08.190]PAY THEIR OWN WAY.
[01:17:09.091]THERE ARE ALL KINDS OF PROBLEMS NOW THAT ARE ESPECIALLY
[01:17:13.195]BECOMING APPARENT IN EUROPE AND GERMANY, FOR EXAMPLE, BECAUSE
[01:17:17.232]IT'S REALLY THE CASE THAT WIND TURBINES CAN GENERATE A WHOLE
[01:17:21.737]BUNCH OF ELECTRICITY -- MORE THAN IS BEING DEMANDED BY THE
[01:17:25.374]BASE LOAD AT CERTAIN TIMES OF THE WEEK OR THE DAY.
[01:17:30.412]AND THEN AT OTHER TIMES ARE PRACTICALLY INACTIVE AND THE
[01:17:36.051]FLUCTUATIONS ARE WILD AND THEY DON'T ACTUALLY MATCH MARKET
[01:17:39.855]DEMAND.
[01:17:40.922]I WISH -- I HAD A BUNCH OF SLIDES THAT I PREPARED TO SHOW THIS.
[01:17:44.860]AND THIS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN SUMMER IN THE SUMMERTIME IT'S
[01:17:48.530]OFTEN VERY HOT BECAUSE THE WIND ISN'T BLOWING.
[01:17:52.234]SO THAT'S WHEN YOU WOULD WANT WIND ENERGY TO COME ONLINE TO
[01:17:56.872]ADD PEAKING POWER TO THE BASE LOAD POWER THAT COMES FROM
[01:18:00.742]NUCLEAR OR FOSSIL FUEL.
[01:18:01.676]THAT'S EXACTLY WHEN THE WIND ISN'T BLOWING.
[01:18:04.246]BUT THERE ARE ALSO TIMES IN THE WINTER WHEN YOU WANT THE WIND
[01:18:08.750]POWER TO COME ONLINE BECAUSE THERE'S AN INCREASED DEMAND FOR
[01:18:14.056]HEATING.
[01:18:14.656]I HAD THIS BEAUTIFUL CHART I WANTED TO SHOW YOU FOLKS -- THIS
[01:18:18.927]IS GERMANY IN CHRISTMAS TIME WHERE THE WIND ELECTRICITY JUST
[01:18:23.565]COMPLETELY FELL THROUGH THE FLOOR.
[01:18:26.168]THERE WAS JUST NO ELECTRICITY BEING GENERATE WHATSOEVER FOR
[01:18:31.840]THE BETTER PART OF A WEEK IN THIS REALLY COLD PERIOD.
[01:18:34.776]SO HERE'S WHAT HAPPENS THEN.
[01:18:36.044]YOU NEED TO BUILD ADDITIONAL FOSSIL GENERATING UNITS LIKE GAS
[01:18:42.017]IN ORDER TO BACK UP THE WIND WHEN THE WIND ISN'T BLOWING.
[01:18:46.054]BUT IT THEN MEANS THAT YOU HAVE TO RUN YOUR GAS POWER PLANTS
[01:18:51.359]VERY INEFFICIENTLY.
[01:18:52.260]YOU HAVE TO SPIN THEM UP AND SPIN THEM DOWN AS THE WIND POWER
[01:18:55.997]FLUCTUATES AND SO NOW WHAT'S HAPPENING IN EUROPE IS YOU'RE
[01:18:58.733]GETTING DEMANDS TO SUBSIDIZE NATURAL GAS ELECTRICITY BECAUSE
[01:19:04.606]IT'S -- BECAUSE IT'S BECOMING UNECONOMIC AS A BACK STOP FOR
[01:19:09.344]WIND.
[01:19:09.911]-- UNECONOMIC AS A BACK STOP FOR WIND.
[01:19:13.615]ONE SUBSIDY BREEDS THE DEMAND FOR ANOTHER.
[01:19:16.218]WE ALSO HAVE SUBSIDIES IN EUROPE NOW TOO, HELP THE ENERGY
[01:19:20.255]INTENSIVE COMPANIES PAY THE HIGHER ELECTRICITY RATES BECAUSE
[01:19:24.126]OF THE CARBON CAP.
[01:19:25.827]SO YOU SUBSIDIES CHASING SUBSIDIES.
[01:19:28.363]THIS IS NOT AN EFFICIENT OUTCOME.
[01:19:31.399]>> THAT'S WHY CARBON PRICING IS A BETTER WAY TO GO.
[01:19:33.768]>> LET ME ASK A QUESTION THAT MAY -- THAT I'VE SEEN QUITE A
[01:19:37.305]FEW VERSIONS OF THIS IN THE QUESTIONS THAT I'VE GOTTEN FROM
[01:19:40.542]TWITTER AND FROM THE AUDIENCE SO I'LL JUST READ ONE OF THEM, BUT
[01:19:43.745]IT'S REPRESENTATIVE.
[01:19:44.713]IT SAYS DR. LEWIS, IF YOU'RE SAYING HUMANS CAN ADAPT TO
[01:19:47.983]WARMING CLIMATE WHICH WE PROBABLY CAN AND CARBON
[01:19:50.652]EMISSIONS MAKE A MORE LIVABLE CLIMATE FOR HUMANS IS THE SAME
[01:19:53.989]TRUE FOR OTHER SPECIES WE SHARE THIS PLANET WITH?
[01:19:57.559]WHAT WOULD BE THE COST TO RESTORE THOSE ECOSYSTEMS WHERE
[01:20:00.829]WE MINE FOR COLE-- COLE, ET CETERA.
[01:20:07.502]>> SHOULD WE WORRY ABOUT THE OTHER SPEAR SPECIES AND PLANTS?
[01:20:11.273]>> OF COURSE WE SHOULD WORRY ABOUT THE OTHER SPECIES AND
[01:20:15.577]PLANTS.
[01:20:15.911]I THINK YOU HAVE A CLIMATE CLAIMING AS EXTERNALITY AND COAL
[01:20:22.250]MINING.
[01:20:22.584]MINING ALWAYS HAS VERY -- OR CAN HAVE VERY SEVERE IMPACTS AT THE
[01:20:28.456]LOCAL LEVEL AND THAT GOES FOR THE MINING OF RARE EARTH
[01:20:34.362]MINERALS WHICH ARE USED TO MAKE THE MAGNETS TO
[01:20:38.033]SPIN THE TURBINES ON THE WIND GENERATING SYSTEMS.
[01:20:41.570]YOU SHOWED A PHOTOGRAPH OF THE POLLUTION IN CHINA AND THERE'S
[01:20:47.776]ALSO JUST HORRENDOUS POLLUTION IN CHINA FROM ITS RARE EARTH
[01:20:53.148]MINERAL PRODUCTION, WHICH IS AN IMPORTANT PART OF THE RENEWABLE
[01:20:56.051]ENERGY ECONOMY.
[01:20:56.952]THOSE ISSUES HAVE TO BE KEPT SEPARATE.
[01:20:58.820]THERE'S BEEN -- YOU KNOW, THERE HAVE BEEN MANY ARTICLES WRITTEN
[01:21:05.260]PREDICTING MASS SPECIES EXTINCTIONS FROM GLOBAL WARMING
[01:21:09.297]OR CLIMATE CHANGE, AND THAT THE ANIMALS AND THE PLANTS THAT ARE
[01:21:14.035]ADAPTED TO ONE ALTITUDE OR ONE LONGITUDE, YOU KNOW, WILL HAVE
[01:21:19.040]TO, YOU KNOW, MOVE UP OFF THE MOUNTAIN TOP INTO THE SKY
[01:21:22.777]SOMEWHERE TO KEEP IT COOL ENOUGH.
[01:21:24.980]AND THEN YOU KNOW IT'S VERY HARD FOR PLANTS TO MIGRATE AND SO ON.
[01:21:29.217]BUT THERE REALLY ARE NOT A WHOLE LOT OF BODIES THAT HAVE BEEN
[01:21:32.988]FOUND YET, IF YOU WILL, THAT THIS IS A SPECIES DISASTER --
[01:21:40.128]DESTRUCTION OR EXTINCTION DISASTER IN THE MAKING.
[01:21:42.764]THERE'S JUST A LOT OF SPECULATIONS.
[01:21:45.033]PART OF THE REASON MAY SIMPLY BE THAT IT'S REALLY NOT WARMING
[01:21:48.003]THEM UP AS MUCH AS A LOT OF THESE PEOPLE THOUGHT IT WAS --
[01:21:52.240]OR IT WOULD.
[01:21:53.241]>> DO YOU WANT TO RESPOND?
[01:21:54.309]>> LOOK, I'M NOT A CLIMATE SCIENTIST, I'M NOT PREPARED TO
[01:21:57.012]SPEAK ON THESE ISSUES.
[01:21:58.780]I ONLY KNOW WHAT I READ IN THE PAPERS ABOUT DESTRUCTION OF
[01:22:02.083]CORAL REEFS FROM ACIDIFICATION AND THE SENSITIVITY IN THE
[01:22:08.556]ARCTIC AREAS BUT IT REALLY IS NOT MY AREA OF EXPERTISE.
[01:22:14.129]>> WE'RE GETTING TO THE END OF OUR DEBATE.
[01:22:15.964]SO I'M GOING TO ASK EACH OF YOU TO TAKE TWO TO THREE MINUTES,
[01:22:19.267]UH, FOR A CLOSING STATEMENT.
[01:22:22.237]SO -- WOULD YOU LIKE TO BEGIN?
[01:22:25.774]>> UH, LET'S SEE WOULD I LIKE TO BEGIN?
[01:22:28.410]UH, YEAH, I THINK -- WELL, JUST ONE QUICK COMMENT ON THE
[01:22:37.018]INSURANCE ANALOGY LOOKING AT A CARBON TAX OR CAP AND TRADE AS
[01:22:41.289]SOME FORM OF CLIMATE INSURANCE AND I REALLY DON'T THINK THAT'S
[01:22:46.094]A PROPER ANALOGY BECAUSE IN THE KIND OF INSURANCE YOU WERE
[01:22:50.632]TALKING ABOUT, GIB, WHICH IS FIRE INSURANCE THROUGH YOUR
[01:22:54.369]HOME, YOU PAY A PREMIUM, AND THEN IF SOMETHING GOES
[01:22:58.340]DRASTICALLY WRONG YOU'RE MADE WHOLE, OKAY.
[01:23:00.875]THE WAY I SEE THESE EITHER CLIMATE TREATIES OR CARBON TAXES
[01:23:05.046]IS THAT YOU PAY A PREMIUM.
[01:23:08.249]IF SOMETHING GOES DRASTICALLY WRONG, YOU GET NOTHING BACK.
[01:23:12.620]IN FACT NOW YOU'RE OUT WHATEVER YOU PAID IN THE PREMIUM.
[01:23:16.124]YOU GET FEWER RESOURCES NOW TO DEAL WITH ANY DISASTER THAT
[01:23:18.893]MIGHT OCCUR WHICH MAY BE SOMETHING OTHER THAN CLIMATE
[01:23:22.097]CHANGE.
[01:23:22.430]BUT YOU ARE POORER NOW THAN YOU WOULD OTHER WISE BE.
[01:23:26.201]SO I GUESS MY GENERAL POINT IS THAT WE SHOULD WANT TO ENCOURAGE
[01:23:31.673]AS MUCH INNOVATION, TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION AS
[01:23:36.311]POSSIBLE IN THE WORLD THAT REQUIRES THAT MORE AND MORE
[01:23:40.682]HUMAN BEINGS IN THE WORLD HAVE ACCESS TO AFFORDABLE ENERGY,
[01:23:44.819]PUTTING A PRICE ON THE MOST AFFORDABLE ENERGIES IS NOT A
[01:23:49.724]GOOD WAY TO DO THAT AND THE MORE ENERGY RICH THIS WORLD
[01:23:54.129]BECOMES, AND THE MORE AFFLUENT IT BECOMES AS A RESULT, THE MORE
[01:24:00.335]TECHNOLOGY THAT PEOPLE CAN AFFORD TO BUY, BUT ALSO AFFORD
[01:24:05.774]INVENT.
[01:24:07.142]BECAUSE, YOU KNOW, IF YOU'RE REALLY JUST TRYING TO MAKE ENDS
[01:24:10.645]MEET OR LIVING AT A SUBSISTENCE LEVEL, YOU DON'T HAVE TIME TO
[01:24:16.284]GET AN EDUCATION TO ACTUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO THE PROGRESS OF
[01:24:19.654]TECHNOLOGY.
[01:24:20.054]THE MORE WE BECOME A TECHNOLOGY-RICH -- EXCUSE ME, AN
[01:24:25.193]ENERGY-RICH TECHNOLOGY CIVILIZATION, THE
[01:24:27.729]BETTER-PREPARED WE WILL BE TO ADDRESS ANY CLIMATE CHANGE
[01:24:31.566]SHOULD IS, IT HAPPEN AND ALSO I THINK A RICHER WORLD IS MORE
[01:24:37.906]LIKELY TO DEVELOP THE TECHNOLOGIES THAT DO NOT EMIT
[01:24:43.378]ANYTHING -- ZERO EMISSION.
[01:24:44.846]IF THAT TURN OUT TO BE SOMETHING THAT'S REALLY IMPORTANT.
[01:24:48.049]I THINK RIGHT NOW IT'S A GREATLY EXAGGERATED THAT THIS IS THE
[01:24:52.887]PLANET IN PERIL.
[01:24:53.888]I THINK THE REAL PERIL COMES FROM HOLDING BACK THE ENGINES OF
[01:25:00.995]PROGRESS WHICH ALL RELY ON THIS CHEAP ENERGY THAT HAS LIFTED
[01:25:02.564]BILLIONS OUT OF POVERTY BUT THERE ARE STILL BILLIONS STUCK
[01:25:06.000]IN ENERGY SCHOLAR.
[01:25:07.135]>> THANK YOU.
[01:25:09.938]>> SO LET ME CLOSE WITH A COUPLE OF POINTS.
[01:25:13.174]ONE IS THAT, UM, MARLO HAS PAINT AD PICTURE OF CLIMATE
[01:25:20.281]ACTIVISTS WHO ARE PAINTING AN APOCALYPTIC VIEW OF THE WORLD IF
[01:25:26.387]WE DON'T ACT.
[01:25:27.522]I GUESS I WOULD FLIP IT AROUND AND SAY THAT WHAT WE'VE HEARD IS
[01:25:34.596]AN APOCALYPTIC VIEW OF WHAT HAPPENS IF WE PRICE FOSSIL FUELS
[01:25:39.634]AT THEIR TRUE SOCIAL COST.
[01:25:43.438]IT STRIKES ME AS VERY SENSIBLE, BASIC ECONOMIC POLICY THAT WE
[01:25:51.079]WANT -- ALL OF OUR FACTORS OF PRODUCTION TO REFLECT THEIR TRUE
[01:25:54.749]COST.
[01:25:55.416]THAT'S POINT ONE.
[01:25:56.317]POINT TWO IS THAT WE HAVE ENORMOUS NEEDS FOR -- WE HAVE
[01:26:01.389]ENORMOUS DESIRE TO REFORM OUR TAX SYSTEM, TO
[01:26:05.226]REDUCE OUR TAXES ON CAPITAL INCOME, TO TREAT OUR -- TO TRY
[01:26:10.532]TO AVOID DISTORTIONS THAT ARE KEEPING FOREIGN PROFITS OF U.S.
[01:26:16.504]FIRMS OUT OF THE COUNTRY WHERE THEY DON'T COME BACK AND LEAD TO
[01:26:20.542]GREATER PRODUCTIVITY AND PROSPERITY IN THIS COUNTRY.
[01:26:23.244]WE KNOW WE HAVE -- WE KNOW WE FACE POTENTIALLY RISING TAX
[01:26:29.284]RATES AS BABY BOOMERS MOVE FURTHER INTO RETIREMENT.
[01:26:32.620]SO WE CAN THINK ABOUT RAISING TAXES ON THINGS WE LIKE, LIKE
[01:26:37.659]LABOR SUPPLY, CAPITAL FORMATION, OR WE CAN LOOK AT NEW
[01:26:43.464]OPPORTUNITIES THAT WILL KILL TWO BIRDS WITH ONE STONE.
[01:26:48.069]IT'S SOMETIMES BEEN CALLED THE DOUBLE DIVIDEND.
[01:26:50.672]THE IDEA THAT WE CAN TAX GREEN HOUSE GAS EMITTING PRODUCTS, TAX
[01:26:58.880]FOSSIL FUELS, AND USE THOSE REVENUES TO LOWER TAXES ON
[01:27:04.752]CAPITAL, ON LABOR, AND TO AVOID TAX INCREASE THAT WE OTHER
[01:27:07.488]WISE WOULD HAVE TO -- WE WOULD OTHER WISE FACE TO ADDRESS REAL
[01:27:14.929]FISCAL NEED OF THIS COUNTRY.
[01:27:16.431]SO I THINK WE'RE JUST MISSING AN OPPORTUNITY NOT TO THINK ABOUT
[01:27:19.801]THE USE OF ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY IN CREATIVE WAY FOR
[01:27:24.205]FISCAL POLICY.
[01:27:24.539]FINALLY, TO CLOSE, I THINK WE HAVE A REAL WINNING SOLUTION FOR
[01:27:28.543]ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY IN THIS COUNTRY, WHICH IS TO
[01:27:32.313]REPLACE REGULATORY POLICY, WHICH IS NOT NEARLY AS EFFECTIVE PER
[01:27:39.153]DOLLAR TO GET US WHERE WE WANT TO BE.
[01:27:42.223]AND REPLACE IT WITH A COMBINATION OF MARKET-BASED
[01:27:45.927]MECHANISMS WHETHER IT BE CAP AND TRADE OR CARBON TAXES, WITH
[01:27:49.263]RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT SPENDING TO HELP US ALONG WITH
[01:27:51.966]THE PRICE SIGNAL IN MARKET PLACE, TO FIND THOSE
[01:27:55.036]TECHNOLOGIES THAT WILL MOVE US FURTHER INTO THE 21ST CENTURY
[01:27:59.340]WITH 21ST ENERGY.
[01:28:00.508]I'M OPTIMISTIC WE CAN DO THAT WITH SENSIBLE POLICY.
[01:28:03.811]THANK YOU.
[01:28:04.345]>> THANK YOU.
[01:28:05.079]THAT, UM, CONCLUDE OUR WILSON DIALOGUE FOR THIS YEAR.
[01:28:10.852]LET'S GIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF APPLAUSE TO DR. LEWIS AND
[01:28:14.555]DR. METCALF.
[01:28:14.956][ APPLAUSE ]

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Cutting Carbon Emissions: Better Environment, Worse Economy?

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