Heuermann Lecture: Understanding and Assessing Climate Change: Implications for Nebraska

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10/13/2014 Added

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[00:00:00.377](instrumental music)
[00:00:22.404]Welcome this afternoon.
[00:00:23.876]My name is Ronnie Green and I have the pleasure
[00:00:26.755]of serving here at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln
[00:00:29.460]as the Vice Chancellor for the Institute of
[00:00:31.503]Ag and Natural Resources, and as Vice President of
[00:00:34.626]the University of Nebraska-Lincoln for Agriculture
[00:00:36.787]and Natural Resources.
[00:00:38.465]Welcome to our inaugural lecture for this
[00:00:42.168]academic year of the Heuermann Lectures.
[00:00:46.592]We started the Heuermann Lectures just three years ago,
[00:00:50.005]this is our fourth season that
[00:00:52.002]we're entering upon this year.
[00:00:54.335]Where the focus of the lectures are on
[00:00:57.250]global food security, natural resource security,
[00:01:01.545]rural landscape security around the world.
[00:01:05.469]And, we were able to do that through the generosity
[00:01:09.336]of a long-standing couple who have had huge impact
[00:01:13.550]for many, many years on Nebraska agriculture, certainly,
[00:01:17.880]and the products they have produced have gone
[00:01:20.455]far beyond Nebraska, and we're very pleased
[00:01:23.674]that they're here with us today.
[00:01:25.880]I think Mr. Heuermann, Keith Heuermann has only
[00:01:28.260]missed one lecture, if I remember correctly,
[00:01:30.872]in those four years.
[00:01:32.381]And, he has Norma, his wife, with him here today.
[00:01:35.458]They're from Phillips, Nebraska, about an hour
[00:01:38.302]and a half west of us here in Lincoln.
[00:01:40.659]Please join me in thanking Keith and Norma, here.
[00:01:43.412](applause)
[00:01:52.629]Now, today we're in for a real treat in our kickoff
[00:01:55.915]of the lecture series,
[00:01:57.976]in that it also is in parallel
[00:02:01.556]with the release of a report that we have been working on
[00:02:06.394]in the Institute of Ag and Natural Resources
[00:02:08.920]for the best part of the last year.
[00:02:11.915]You will perhaps have seen some of the publicity
[00:02:15.004]around this, it was in the papers here locally
[00:02:17.918]the last few days.
[00:02:19.868]Where we are talking today about understanding
[00:02:23.758]climate change, understanding the impacts
[00:02:26.625]that may come from climate change on Nebraska
[00:02:30.468]and how that might factor into our thinking
[00:02:34.381]here in this state and on the resource space
[00:02:37.086]that we're blessed to have in this state,
[00:02:39.884]due to these changes that are projected
[00:02:42.624]out in the future ahead of us.
[00:02:44.969]Now, our format today for the lecture,
[00:02:47.546]we're here on Nebraska Innovation Campus
[00:02:50.542]in the conference center facility that's new
[00:02:53.166]as you can see those of you that are here.
[00:02:56.091]This is its first year of operation
[00:02:58.588]and we expected that this would be
[00:03:00.503]a great venue for this lecture.
[00:03:02.918]We'll actually be having a couple of our lectures
[00:03:04.840]here this year in this venue.
[00:03:07.392]So, we're joined by about 400 people here
[00:03:10.368]in the auditorium live, then I know there
[00:03:13.294]are a number of people tapped into the lecture
[00:03:17.253]in various groups around the state of Nebraska.
[00:03:20.167]I know there's a UNO group, a Chadron State group,
[00:03:23.546]a Creighton group, all who are either tapped in now
[00:03:26.703]or will be tonight to view what our lecturers
[00:03:30.326]will tell us here in the next hour and a half.
[00:03:33.635]Our venue will be, or our
[00:03:36.165]platform in our venue will be
[00:03:38.805]45 minutes, initially,
[00:03:41.397]of a summary of the report.
[00:03:44.267]That will be delivered by Dr. Don Wilhite,
[00:03:47.482]who has led the study with, I think, about
[00:03:51.460]18 of our faculty across the University.
[00:03:55.627]Not all in the Institute of Ag and Natural Resources,
[00:03:58.344]as you'll see.
[00:03:59.134]Our three panelists today are also from
[00:04:01.583]the Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences,
[00:04:03.917]in the College of Arts and Sciences, here on campus.
[00:04:07.670]Following Dr. Wilhite's presentation,
[00:04:10.453]we will have a panel discussion where Don
[00:04:13.333]will be joined by Clint Rowe, Bob Oglesby,
[00:04:17.338]and Deb Bathke, co-authors of the report.
[00:04:21.843]To allow you a chance to dialogue with them in questions
[00:04:25.001]that you may have about what the report says.
[00:04:29.552]You will see on the desks in front of you
[00:04:32.710]there are note cards that have
[00:04:33.917]been distributed throughout the auditorium.
[00:04:36.712]So, if you have a question that you would like
[00:04:39.418]to address to the panel, we ask you
[00:04:41.345]to put that on the card, send them toward
[00:04:45.130]the end of your row, if you will,
[00:04:48.854]and they'll be collected
[00:04:50.394]during the lecture so we can begin with
[00:04:52.885]that panel dialogue in the second 45 minutes.
[00:04:56.171]Everybody on board?
[00:04:57.843]So, I will now welcome
[00:05:00.370]Dr. Don Wilhite to the podium.
[00:05:04.310]Don has been an international leader
[00:05:06.376]for many years as an Applied Climate Scientist.
[00:05:09.510]He's a member of the faculty of our
[00:05:11.287]School of Natural Resources, in INR.
[00:05:15.048]And, he's looked at globally as a leader
[00:05:18.214]particularly in the area of prediction of drought,
[00:05:21.840]and the impacts and implications of drought,
[00:05:25.759]and mitigation of drought.
[00:05:27.204]You will recognize that we house here
[00:05:29.212]the National Drought Mitigation Center,
[00:05:31.511]at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln.
[00:05:33.427]We're very proud of that center and the work
[00:05:35.261]that it does for us nationally and internationally.
[00:05:39.011]And, Dr. Wilhite, I follow his travel schedule closely
[00:05:43.624]and he's all over the world, all the time,
[00:05:46.744]working with groups all the way up the chain
[00:05:49.588]in helping us to understand the environment,
[00:05:52.212]and climate, and impacts on drought.
[00:05:54.290]So, please join me in welcoming, Dr. Don Wilhite
[00:05:57.877]for the initial part of the lecture.
[00:05:59.491](applause)
[00:06:01.802]Thank you.
[00:06:03.092](applause)
[00:06:06.082]So, they tell me my, well, it's obviously live (laughs).
[00:06:09.382]So, welcome, I'm really pleased that you could
[00:06:11.621]all come to this lecture this afternoon.
[00:06:16.509]First of all, I must say, this is the first time I've spoken
[00:06:20.088]in this auditorium and it feels somewhat like
[00:06:23.408]a coliseum in Ancient Rome. (laughing)
[00:06:27.251]So, my first question to Ronnie Green is,
[00:06:29.759]at what point are you gonna release the lions? (laughing)
[00:06:33.463]So, no, I'm pleased to have you all here,
[00:06:36.249]I also would like to introduce, Ronnie mentioned
[00:06:39.926]them, but they're sitting in the front row over here
[00:06:41.876]and they'll join us in the panel.
[00:06:43.838]I'll tell ya, the four of us have worked hard
[00:06:46.126]on this report for about the last six to eight months
[00:06:49.620]and I couldn't ask for a greater group of collaborators
[00:06:52.627]than what I've had to work with in these three individuals.
[00:06:55.924]So, Bob Oglesby is seated closest to me,
[00:06:58.937]hold up your hand, Bob (laughs).
[00:07:01.671]Clint Rowe and Deborah Bathke.
[00:07:05.758]So, all three of them have appointments,
[00:07:08.382]as Ronnie said, in the Department of Earth
[00:07:09.961]and Atmospheric Sciences.
[00:07:12.231]Bob Oglesby also has a joint appointment
[00:07:13.920]in the School of Natural Resources.
[00:07:15.801]So, one of the cardinal rules about public speaking
[00:07:20.677]is to know your audience.
[00:07:23.373]And so, as I started thinking about this audience
[00:07:26.619]and the diversity of people in this audience
[00:07:30.081]and their knowledge of the issue of climate change,
[00:07:32.426]because it's a very complex one.
[00:07:34.876]I was trying to think of an analogy
[00:07:38.083]to the diversity that I see in front of you.
[00:07:44.092]You'll know that before I show you my next slide,
[00:07:48.660]this report will be available at the end of the lecture
[00:07:51.469]and it'll be on tables around.
[00:07:53.211]So, this is the analogy, a Nebraska football game.
[00:07:58.168]And, if you think about the diversity of
[00:08:00.920]people that are in the stadium, in terms of
[00:08:04.507]their understanding of football, the real understanding
[00:08:07.294]of football, maybe you'll get an idea about the diversity
[00:08:11.218]of expertise and understanding of this issue
[00:08:14.828]that exists in this particular auditorium today
[00:08:17.623]and that are linked in via video links.
[00:08:20.293]So, I was thinking about this and it sort of puts me
[00:08:23.254]in a perspective of thinking, like, sort of
[00:08:25.378]the Geico gecko, in the sense that,
[00:08:28.211]does everybody already know this information?
[00:08:30.208]Well, obviously, everyone doesn't.
[00:08:32.298]A lot of people are on what I would call the
[00:08:34.547]novice, but eager to learn side.
[00:08:37.426]Other people, there are many experts
[00:08:38.924]in this room that know as much about this issue
[00:08:41.385]or more than I do.
[00:08:43.591]So, I would ask you, as we go through this, kind of,
[00:08:46.599]where do you place yourself on this scale?
[00:08:49.923]Between being an expert and being a novice.
[00:08:52.919]But hopefully, regardless of where you are on that scale,
[00:08:56.344]that you have come to the lecture to learn about this
[00:08:59.873]and to learn about the potential implications
[00:09:02.509]of climate change projections on the state of Nebraska.
[00:09:07.385]So, if you came to the lecture hoping,
[00:09:11.859]if you're a skeptic,
[00:09:13.389]hoping to hear that global warming is a myth,
[00:09:16.884]you're going to be disappointed
[00:09:18.591]because I'm not going to say that.
[00:09:21.343]But again, I hope you came with an open mind
[00:09:24.384]and willingness to listen and to learn about
[00:09:26.950]the science behind climate change, as well as
[00:09:28.878]the implications associated with that for Nebraska.
[00:09:34.299]So, this slide says, you know,
[00:09:38.649]did you know that 97%
[00:09:41.229]of climate scientists believe that humans
[00:09:45.533]are causing the current change in temperature?
[00:09:48.876]The global warming that we're talking about here today.
[00:09:53.079]There's a significant misperception about that
[00:09:55.219]amongst, certainly, the American community.
[00:09:58.202]I saw a poll the other day that said,
[00:10:00.871]only 12% of Americans understand
[00:10:04.951]that 97% of the
[00:10:07.901]climate science community
[00:10:10.201]conclude that global warming is
[00:10:12.660]a result of human activities.
[00:10:14.746]So, we have a lot of educating to do
[00:10:16.384]on this particular subject.
[00:10:18.671]So, the outline for my presentation
[00:10:21.132]is going to follow something similar to what
[00:10:22.839]we see with the report that you'll have access to
[00:10:25.753]following this lecture, both in the hallway
[00:10:30.258]in hard copy, but also online.
[00:10:34.089]This will be available in electronic format.
[00:10:36.620]So, we'll talk about the
[00:10:39.737]science of climate change.
[00:10:41.587]We'll get into issues of the observed changes
[00:10:44.303]that we've seen today.
[00:10:45.798]Talk about the projections and also
[00:10:49.506]separating natural causes for climate change,
[00:10:52.339]which is one thing that a lot of people
[00:10:53.755]get confused about, versus human causes.
[00:10:58.504]And then, we'll conclude with some takeaway points,
[00:11:02.254]some challenges and opportunities as we move forward.
[00:11:06.456]So, first of all, let's start with
[00:11:08.593]an introduction and background.
[00:11:10.462]I'm gonna give you a couple of definitions.
[00:11:13.213]Which you might think is a pretty simple place
[00:11:16.950]or beginning point with our conversation,
[00:11:19.843]but I think it's important.
[00:11:25.381]So, the first definition is one of weather.
[00:11:28.552]Weather is the condition of the atmosphere
[00:11:30.178]at a particular place and time.
[00:11:31.956]So, it's defined by whether it's cloudy, whether it's sunny,
[00:11:35.669]wind speed, temperature, precipitation,
[00:11:37.921]all of those variables we're used to hearing about
[00:11:40.882]on our nightly news.
[00:11:43.552]As opposed to climate, where we're looking at
[00:11:46.757]the composite or the average of weather
[00:11:50.425]over a longer period of time.
[00:11:52.120]Typical averaging periods being 30 years or longer.
[00:11:55.801]And so, an important part of climate are,
[00:11:58.053]what are the trends associated with climate?
[00:12:00.886]And so, this is something we'll talk about.
[00:12:04.465]Mark Twain said it this way,
[00:12:06.451]"Climate is what you expect and weather is what you get."
[00:12:09.412]So, that's another way to make a distinction
[00:12:12.095]between weather and climate.
[00:12:15.589]Now, I bring this up because of the fact that
[00:12:18.004]many people
[00:12:21.110]get these two terms
[00:12:23.340]mixed up or confused by what's weather
[00:12:26.046]and what's climate.
[00:12:27.544]So, let me give you a couple of examples
[00:12:29.204]of this type of confusion.
[00:12:33.035]So, here's a map that shows July temperature,
[00:12:36.589]land and ocean temperature of 2014.
[00:12:41.384]And, if you look at that circle
[00:12:42.658]that I've put up on the screen,
[00:12:46.201]Nebraska and the eastern United States was cool,
[00:12:50.428]we had a cool July and a wet July.
[00:12:53.586]So, some people will say, well see, global warming
[00:12:56.593]must be a hoax because we had a cool July
[00:13:00.215]and we probably had somewhat of a cool August, as well.
[00:13:04.464]Roberto Linton and I just came back from Stockholm
[00:13:07.669]recently for Stockholm Water Week and the people
[00:13:10.457]there were talking about what a beautiful warm summer
[00:13:13.299]they'd had throughout Europe this year.
[00:13:16.469]We're talking about weather,
[00:13:19.627]short-term weather patterns that affect the temperature
[00:13:23.832]and precipitation and other characteristics
[00:13:26.129]of the atmosphere at a particular point in time.
[00:13:29.379]So, people will say, but, we're talking about
[00:13:31.423]global warming, why did we have a cool July?
[00:13:35.509]Again, it's weather versus climate.
[00:13:38.377]Another example is if you look at a plot of
[00:13:40.634]global mean temperature, some people will
[00:13:43.841]point to particular years where, like,
[00:13:47.174]in 2000 and 2008 where global mean temperature
[00:13:50.552]actually dropped.
[00:13:53.965]Again, that's weather
[00:13:56.506]over a short time scale.
[00:13:59.126]What's important here is the trend.
[00:14:03.210]So again, the confusion between weather and climate
[00:14:06.683]causes a lot of people to maybe not understand
[00:14:09.694]this issue in so many ways.
[00:14:13.200]So, we were fortunate, we did an extensive review
[00:14:16.173]of literature, building upon the expertise of the
[00:14:19.083]four members of the team.
[00:14:21.127]We also worked with, as Ronnie said, some other
[00:14:23.041]people that wrote commentaries on various sectors,
[00:14:25.880]so we engaged other people other than just the four of us.
[00:14:30.211]But, two very important reports that just happened
[00:14:33.254]to come out, you know, simultaneously with our study.
[00:14:37.130]First one is the most recent report of the
[00:14:39.208]Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
[00:14:41.252]that does a global assessment of the state of the science
[00:14:44.886]for climate change, implications of that, impacts,
[00:14:47.962]mitigations, and options, and so forth.
[00:14:50.424]And, this report was, it's actually a number of reports,
[00:14:53.746]the first ones were issued in late 2013,
[00:14:56.658]the others in early 2014.
[00:14:59.261]And so, we relied heavily, obviously,
[00:15:01.340]on the latest information coming from this group
[00:15:04.463]of more than 1,000 scientists that participate
[00:15:07.405]in this IPCC process.
[00:15:13.658]The second report is the National Climate Assessment report
[00:15:17.178]that was released in May of this year.
[00:15:19.661]So, this report focuses on the United States,
[00:15:22.379]and it's the third report that's been done
[00:15:24.167]and it's generally done about
[00:15:25.511]every six or seven years, as well.
[00:15:27.949]So, this one gives us more information
[00:15:29.586]that's more specific to the United States,
[00:15:31.920]and so, this is very helpful.
[00:15:34.218]This report's divided into about 32 different chapters.
[00:15:37.759]There's some overview chapters of projections,
[00:15:39.884]there are also chapters on various regions,
[00:15:41.707]including one for the Great Plains.
[00:15:44.505]There are also chapters that focus on different sectors.
[00:15:47.384]And so, I pulled some of the key sectors for Nebraska
[00:15:51.424]and we used commentaries to essentially discuss
[00:15:55.546]those sectors in terms of the implications of
[00:15:58.158]climate change on those sectors,
[00:16:00.213]and that's in the report and you'll see that later.
[00:16:04.625]So, if you look at the IPCC report,
[00:16:07.747]and you can read the language at the top there,
[00:16:10.372]but if you look at the language in the second paragraph,
[00:16:15.283]the evidence for human influence has grown since
[00:16:18.076]AR4, which is the assessment report four.
[00:16:21.293]It was issued in 2007.
[00:16:23.419]If you remember, this report is the one that won
[00:16:26.379]the Nobel Peace Prize because of bringing
[00:16:29.050]this attention to this report and this issue
[00:16:32.173]to the attention of many people.
[00:16:33.636]It says, human influence extremely likely
[00:16:37.003]at greater than 95%.
[00:16:39.383]So, from a science perspective,
[00:16:41.171]95% is a pretty high probability.
[00:16:44.204]So, we believe, the science
[00:16:47.501]believes that humans are the primary cause
[00:16:51.141]of the changes in climate that we're seeing today.
[00:16:55.802]OK, secondly, Climate Change Science.
[00:16:59.334]So, many people talk about the fact, well,
[00:17:02.090]we all know that there have been ice ages,
[00:17:05.209]we all know that there have been warm periods,
[00:17:07.960]and these have occurred over thousands of years.
[00:17:11.292]And, these natural forces that are causing these changes
[00:17:14.125]in the climate
[00:17:17.267]are still occurring today,
[00:17:19.517]but these occur over long time scales of thousands of years.
[00:17:23.954]And so, we have issues of changes in the orbit
[00:17:28.261]or the wobbling of the Earth,
[00:17:30.502]we have solar output
[00:17:33.541]in terms of energy and so forth,
[00:17:35.391]and how that varies through time.
[00:17:36.969]We have things like El Nino, southern oscillation events
[00:17:41.799]that, again, are causing changes in climate.
[00:17:44.875]And, we have things like stratospheric ozone
[00:17:48.580]related to large scale volcanic eruptions.
[00:17:52.621]So, these natural influences are occurring today
[00:17:56.370]and they've occurred in the past, and they are the reason
[00:17:59.523]or how we explain the movement from
[00:18:03.492]ice ages to warm periods, and so forth.
[00:18:08.753]But, we also have anthropogenic
[00:18:11.800]or human influences on the climate system.
[00:18:16.549]It's just that, you know, there haven't been that
[00:18:18.801]many of us on Earth for all that long a period of time
[00:18:22.795]and so these influences haven't been
[00:18:24.629]that significant in the past.
[00:18:27.079]Now we have seven billion people,
[00:18:30.341]projected to be nine to
[00:18:31.569]nine point six billion people by 2050.
[00:18:34.586]So, we are having an influence on our climate system.
[00:18:39.496]So, one of those influences is the increasing
[00:18:43.618]concentration of greenhouse gases.
[00:18:45.869]CO2 is the one that you hear the most about.
[00:18:49.052]But, we also have changes in aerosol particles
[00:18:53.626]as a result of the burning of biomass, smoke, and so forth.
[00:18:58.293]And then, also changes in land use.
[00:19:01.045]You know, seven billion people have changed
[00:19:02.670]a lot of the land characteristics in the world
[00:19:06.536]up to this point in time.
[00:19:08.196]And, we will continue to do that in the future.
[00:19:11.958]So, in recent decades,
[00:19:15.256]since the Industrial Revolution,
[00:19:16.706]we've had a growing influence on the climate system.
[00:19:20.090]In particularly since, say, the 1960's, 1970's,
[00:19:23.766]this has become more apparent as we look at
[00:19:26.542]global temperature changes, regional temperature changes,
[00:19:29.677]changes in precipitation, reduction in glacial extent,
[00:19:34.135]alpine as well as glaciers
[00:19:38.705]in Antarctica, and the Arctic, and so forth.
[00:19:41.815]And, the land use changes continue as well.
[00:19:45.549]So, why is this important?
[00:19:48.545]Well, most of you learned, and obviously in your high school
[00:19:51.668]science classes, about the composition of the atmosphere.
[00:19:55.064]And, you know, that the atmosphere's primarily made
[00:19:57.217]up of nitrogen and oxygen.
[00:19:59.841]And then, we have this small quantity of CO2 and other
[00:20:03.173]trace gases, or greenhouse gases, such as methane,
[00:20:07.922]nitrous oxide and water vapor that's also in the atmosphere.
[00:20:12.426]And, this makes up only 1% or less
[00:20:15.700]of the composition of the atmosphere.
[00:20:18.635]So, people can say, well,
[00:20:20.951]why is this 1% so important?
[00:20:24.291]Well, it's so important because these greenhouse gases
[00:20:28.547]are the heat regulators
[00:20:31.098]for the Earth, and so
[00:20:34.058]we've known for more than a century that if you
[00:20:37.302]increase the concentration of greenhouse gases
[00:20:41.296]you're going to increase the temperature of the Earth.
[00:20:45.673]And, we can track this back in geologic history, as well,
[00:20:50.299]in terms of how these changes have occurred in the past.
[00:20:53.376]So, without these greenhouse gases, the Earth's surface
[00:20:56.453]temperature would be around 57 degrees cooler
[00:21:00.969]than what it is today.
[00:21:02.966]So again, these greenhouse gases are the heat regulators.
[00:21:06.494]And, it's the concentration of those in the atmosphere
[00:21:08.944]that are really, really important.
[00:21:11.838]So, when we think about the Earth's energy balance,
[00:21:16.714]we receive shortwave solar radiation from the sun,
[00:21:19.546]our primary source of energy.
[00:21:22.216]And, when that energy is absorbed by the Earth,
[00:21:26.094]it's re-radiated into the atmosphere.
[00:21:30.506]And, when it's re-radiated into the atmosphere,
[00:21:34.212]it's re-radiated as infrared radiation,
[00:21:37.722]longwave radiation.
[00:21:39.872]So, while the atmosphere is transparent, relatively
[00:21:43.125]transparent to the shortwave solar radiation,
[00:21:46.260]it is no longer transparent to
[00:21:48.001]the longer wave infrared radiation.
[00:21:51.844]And so, these are the heat-trapping greenhouse gases
[00:21:55.092]that we're talking about.
[00:21:56.450]So, if energy in is equal to energy out, then we have
[00:22:00.728]a steady state in terms of our climate.
[00:22:03.927]If we upset that balance, then we change all that.
[00:22:08.966]So, the greenhouse effect, you hear about
[00:22:11.209]the greenhouse effect and basically
[00:22:13.508]I just explained that to you.
[00:22:15.505]That, again, solar radiation, the atmosphere
[00:22:19.208]is relatively transparent to the solar radiation,
[00:22:21.844]but it's not transparent to the infrared radiation
[00:22:25.491]as it's re-radiated into the atmosphere
[00:22:27.631]and eventually back into space.
[00:22:30.627]So, it then stands the reason
[00:22:33.004]that if we increase
[00:22:36.174]the level of CO2 in the atmosphere and other
[00:22:39.044]greenhouse gases, what we're doing essentially
[00:22:41.877]is enhancing the greenhouse effect.
[00:22:44.129]And so, we would expect the climate to warm
[00:22:47.995]and that, in fact, is what's happening.
[00:22:50.839]So, if you look at, just in recent years,
[00:22:54.090]the concentration of carbon dioxide, methane,
[00:22:58.956]nitrous oxide in the atmosphere, you can see
[00:23:02.298]a rather steep upward trend.
[00:23:06.130]You also see the chlorofluorocarbons over here
[00:23:08.924]that were increasing, rather dramatically, until
[00:23:11.440]the 1990's
[00:23:16.745]when there was a flattening.
[00:23:18.917]And, this flattening, if you remember,
[00:23:20.126]the concern about the ozone hole and trying to control that
[00:23:24.585]and these chlorofluorocarbons
[00:23:29.060]were what was causing
[00:23:30.460]the deterioration of the ozone hole,
[00:23:32.544]or the development of the ozone hole.
[00:23:34.506]And so you see, with international treaties,
[00:23:36.759]we've been able to plateau this
[00:23:38.465]or bring those concentrations in the atmosphere down.
[00:23:42.552]So, we can do the same thing with these other
[00:23:44.294]greenhouse gases, but it takes
[00:23:48.575]agreement globally to do this,
[00:23:51.655]countries have to come together to do this.
[00:23:54.170]If we look at a longer term trend
[00:23:58.652]or plot of CO2, this goes back
[00:24:02.397]650,000 years.
[00:24:06.657]At the beginning of the Industrial Revolution,
[00:24:08.677]the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere
[00:24:10.836]was 280 parts per million.
[00:24:13.425]By 1950, it had reached 300
[00:24:16.757]and in May of this year, it reached 402.
[00:24:21.000]This is gonna go to 450, it's gonna go to 500,
[00:24:24.434]and beyond, unless we do something about it.
[00:24:31.500]So people may say, well you know,
[00:24:33.951]we've had ice ages in the past
[00:24:35.879]and we've had these changes in the past.
[00:24:39.668]The difference is, as I mentioned earlier, is now
[00:24:42.958]we have seven plus billion people headed towards
[00:24:45.838]nine plus billion people all competing for resources,
[00:24:48.868]all competing for food.
[00:24:50.923]Water for Food Institute is focused on things like,
[00:24:52.920]how do we feed nine billion people in the future?
[00:24:57.355]Working with other organizations and so forth.
[00:24:59.923]This is a huge issue for our future, for your children,
[00:25:04.011]their children, and so forth.
[00:25:08.521]So, the concern is that the changes that have occurred
[00:25:11.004]in the past as a result of natural forcings
[00:25:13.674]have occurred over tens of thousands of years.
[00:25:18.295]Whereas the forcings, the human forcings,
[00:25:21.633]we're looking at changes occurring
[00:25:23.131]in a period of less than 100 years.
[00:25:25.720]A rapid change in temperature and effects on
[00:25:28.669]precipitation and other things.
[00:25:31.594]So, what are the observed changes?
[00:25:33.545]Well, we could go into great deal of detail about these
[00:25:37.260]in terms of all the changes we're seeing.
[00:25:39.372]I think all of you could understand the fact that
[00:25:41.544]we're seeing a lot of changes in our climate.
[00:25:45.375]So, one way to look at that is, OK,
[00:25:47.337]if we had a warming world, what indicators
[00:25:49.752]would we be looking at to tell us that we,
[00:25:51.784]in fact, have a warming world?
[00:25:54.211]So, here you have 10 indicators.
[00:25:57.077]The white arrows are those things
[00:25:58.576]that we would expect to be increasing.
[00:26:01.520]Air temperature over land,
[00:26:03.162]air temperature in the troposphere,
[00:26:05.844]temperature over oceans, sea surface temperature.
[00:26:08.839]And then there are three arrows that you see
[00:26:11.962]that are black arrows going down.
[00:26:14.052]We would expect to see a reduction in sea ice,
[00:26:18.243]reduction in glaciers, snow cover, and so on.
[00:26:22.005]If you look at the data set for all 10 of these indicators,
[00:26:25.047]they all verify that this is what's happening.
[00:26:28.379]So, there's a lot of data that backs this up
[00:26:31.049]and we have more and more data
[00:26:32.500]all the time through satellite images and so forth.
[00:26:36.134]So, our observation network has increased dramatically.
[00:26:39.710]If we look at these temperature changes by decade,
[00:26:42.508]we see that, you know, the 1980's
[00:26:46.818]was the warmest decade on record,
[00:26:49.208]and then look at the 1990's,
[00:26:51.119]and then 2001-2012, again even warmer.
[00:26:55.800]So increasing temperatures, globally, and of course
[00:27:00.049]we're also seeing this locally.
[00:27:04.218]What I consider to be a remarkable statistic
[00:27:06.293]is if you look at,
[00:27:09.061]as of through
[00:27:11.441]July of 2014,
[00:27:15.623]we've had 353 consecutive months
[00:27:19.151]where the global temperature exceeded
[00:27:21.173]the 20th century average for those months.
[00:27:25.468]353 consecutive months.
[00:27:29.543]So, we're talking about trends, OK?
[00:27:33.793]So if we look at the United States and we say,
[00:27:35.546]well, where have we warmed in the United States?
[00:27:37.798]Well, the warming in the United States
[00:27:39.133]has been largely in the western part of the U.S.
[00:27:42.419]and across the northern tier of states.
[00:27:45.217]There's been a little bit of cooling in the Southeast,
[00:27:48.131]over this period and it's looking at comparing
[00:27:50.209]recent years to the
[00:27:52.386]1901-1960 average.
[00:27:56.426]Nebraska's kind of in the middle of all of this,
[00:27:59.130]showing some increase in temperature,
[00:28:01.092]it varies from one part of the state to another.
[00:28:07.594]We see this in a lot of different ways,
[00:28:09.128]if we look at the statistics on heating demand,
[00:28:12.251]for example, we see that heating demand
[00:28:14.701]in the United States is dropping.
[00:28:17.336]Why?
[00:28:18.583]Warmer temperatures.
[00:28:20.297]Well then, what would you think about cooling demand?
[00:28:23.547]Well, cooling demand is increasing.
[00:28:26.578]So, this is a reflection of the changes that we're seeing.
[00:28:29.294]Not only daytime temperatures,
[00:28:31.419]but nighttime temperatures, winter temperatures
[00:28:34.008]are less severe, and so forth.
[00:28:37.212]So, this is another good indicator.
[00:28:40.333]And this is one of Ronnie's favorite indicators,
[00:28:42.797]Plant Hardiness Zones.
[00:28:44.794]If we look at the Plant Hardiness Zones in 1990,
[00:28:48.799]we can see that the zone between four and five,
[00:28:51.841]the line between those two that I've marked here
[00:28:54.163]with an orange line, ran basically through
[00:28:56.926]the middle of Nebraska.
[00:29:01.257]In 2012, this zone had moved
[00:29:03.759]to the border of South Dakota.
[00:29:06.799]So, these zones are moving northward
[00:29:10.001]and the projections are that these are gonna
[00:29:11.671]continue to move northward and I'll talk
[00:29:13.716]a little bit more about that in a few minutes.
[00:29:17.629]Observed Increases in Frost-Free Season.
[00:29:20.287]The average for the Great Plains, frost-free season
[00:29:23.294]has increased by about 10 days.
[00:29:25.407]In Nebraska, it varies from about five to 25 days,
[00:29:29.053]depending on which part of the state you're in.
[00:29:32.002]In terms of precipitation, the greatest increases
[00:29:34.892]in precipitation, again, remember that warmer
[00:29:37.992]temperatures mean that the air can hold more moisture
[00:29:40.743]so you would expect to increase precipitation.
[00:29:43.713]And so, along the northern tier of states
[00:29:47.089]in the United States, we've had
[00:29:48.424]an increase in precipitation.
[00:29:50.258]In Nebraska, the results are somewhat mixed.
[00:29:54.217]Drying trends somewhat in the western part of the country,
[00:29:57.178]or the western part of the state,
[00:29:58.826]and in the eastern part of the state, some increases.
[00:30:01.334]But I notice these increases, if you look at the scale
[00:30:04.295]over on the right, are relatively minor,
[00:30:08.672]we're talking a few percentage increases.
[00:30:12.341]If we look at the Observed Change
[00:30:13.957]in Very Heavy Precipitation, one of the things
[00:30:16.834]we're seeing is that while the total amount of precipitation
[00:30:19.759]that you're receiving on an annual basis
[00:30:22.302]may not be increasing for some locations,
[00:30:25.750]more of that rain, more of that precipitation
[00:30:28.792]is coming in the form of heavy or intense events.
[00:30:32.252]Which means that more water runs off,
[00:30:33.924]less goes into the soil, and so forth.
[00:30:37.592]Another big concern is related to extreme events
[00:30:41.760]and the frequency of extreme events that we're seeing.
[00:30:45.917]And you see here, meteorological
[00:30:47.914]and hydrological-type events and if you look at the trend
[00:30:51.037]of those going back to 1980, you can see
[00:30:53.626]a rather dramatic increase, again with fluctuations
[00:30:57.618]or variability from year to year
[00:30:59.802]which is caused by different weather patterns.
[00:31:02.252]But what's concerning is the trend
[00:31:04.342]and more recently we've seen even a steeper trend.
[00:31:08.173]So, why are we concerned about extreme events?
[00:31:12.678]Well, they put tremendous social and environmental
[00:31:17.205]costs on society and also
[00:31:19.974]tremendous economic cost to rebuild
[00:31:23.014]or to recover from these events.
[00:31:25.333]So, think about Superstorm Sandy,
[00:31:29.083]in which more than 50 billion dollars
[00:31:31.341]has been allocated to rebuilding from Superstorm Sandy.
[00:31:36.125]62 billion dollars was spent by the federal government
[00:31:39.584]in response to
[00:31:40.686]the 2011-2012 drought.
[00:31:44.686]These are very expensive events
[00:31:46.342]and if we look at the trend, the total cost
[00:31:48.757]in billions of dollars is skyrocketing.
[00:31:52.077]Who's paying for this?
[00:31:53.087]You're paying for this, this is taxpayer dollars.
[00:31:59.426]I'll just let you look at this slide.
[00:32:01.344](audience laughing)
[00:32:05.226]I think it needs no explanation, OK?
[00:32:07.827](audience laughing)
[00:32:09.883]OK, so, separating natural
[00:32:12.781]from human factors.
[00:32:15.211]So, you've probably all seen a slide that resembles
[00:32:18.050]this at some point, looking in books
[00:32:21.842]and magazine articles, and newspapers,
[00:32:24.282]and so forth.
[00:32:26.669]So, here you have the global temperatures,
[00:32:30.047]global mean temperatures, and here you have
[00:32:33.345]a plot that shows CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere.
[00:32:37.129]Obviously, a very strong correlation
[00:32:39.045]between the two.
[00:32:42.296]So, how do you separate natural causes,
[00:32:44.838]which we talked about earlier, from human causes?
[00:32:49.003]Well, we have people that are called
[00:32:50.718]Climate Modelers and we have general
[00:32:53.133]or global circulation models that they run.
[00:32:56.117]There are quite a few of those models.
[00:32:57.881]And, we have a couple guys over here
[00:32:59.777]that are very experienced in working
[00:33:01.550]with these models as well.
[00:33:04.163]And so, if we look at this particular diagram,
[00:33:07.782]what you see here is that if you run these computer models
[00:33:11.476]and we don't include
[00:33:14.085]the increasing concentrations
[00:33:16.595]of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases
[00:33:20.552]in the models, what you get is what you see
[00:33:24.209]with this pattern here in green.
[00:33:27.959]Which is actually a slight cooling,
[00:33:30.130]is what the models would be projecting.
[00:33:32.162]If you insert carbon dioxide and other
[00:33:34.960]greenhouse gases back into these models,
[00:33:38.130]you'd get what's shown here in the purple area,
[00:33:42.553]and the black line represents
[00:33:46.709]global mean temperature.
[00:33:48.765]So, you can see how closely global mean temperature
[00:33:52.749]trend matches what we see if we include
[00:33:55.710]these greenhouse gases in these model runs.
[00:33:59.205]So again, it's more evidence that we're getting this right.
[00:34:02.711]We understand what's happening in the climate system
[00:34:05.369]and we're able to replicate that
[00:34:09.212]through these climate models.
[00:34:12.126]So, more, sort of, ammunition or information
[00:34:16.631]about this is here you see, again, a plot of
[00:34:20.834]global mean temperature and the more recent years
[00:34:24.259]with the rather steep upward trend.
[00:34:26.883]So, remember when we talked about
[00:34:27.862]that there were natural factors
[00:34:30.393]that cause changes in climate, OK?
[00:34:33.673]And, we talked about what those were.
[00:34:37.125]Output of the sun, in terms of its energy,
[00:34:39.337]output volcanic eruptions, and so on.
[00:34:42.669]So, let's look at those trends.
[00:34:44.759]El Nino's Southern Oscillation was one,
[00:34:47.418]do you see a trend?
[00:34:50.251]If you look at the trend related to volcanoes,
[00:34:53.757]there's no trend.
[00:34:56.636]If you look at solar energy output,
[00:34:59.583]once again, no trend.
[00:35:02.453]If you look at other factors, other atmospheric oscillations
[00:35:06.418]and so on, once again, you have no trend.
[00:35:09.202]If you look at anthropogenic factors, you see a trend
[00:35:12.953]that matches what you see up here.
[00:35:15.669]This is the chart that comes out of the IPCC report.
[00:35:20.417]OK, projections, future climate,
[00:35:23.834]implications for Nebraska.
[00:35:26.628]So first of all, a little bit about models,
[00:35:28.838]and you may have a lot of questions about models
[00:35:31.253]and I'll point to these guys over here to answer
[00:35:35.044]those questions because they're the modelers.
[00:35:37.542]But one of the things that we've seen
[00:35:38.842]since the early models in the 1970's,
[00:35:41.547]is the models are becoming more and more complex,
[00:35:44.252]they're incorporating more information
[00:35:46.786]into the models, and so on.
[00:35:47.983]We get a better understanding of the climate system.
[00:35:51.135]We can see these grid cells at which they calculate
[00:35:53.375]these changes are getting smaller
[00:35:56.220]and these acronyms here represent
[00:35:59.494]the different reports that came out of IPCC.
[00:36:02.292]So, this is the first annual assessment,
[00:36:04.320]or first assessment report,
[00:36:05.961]the second assessment report, and so forth.
[00:36:08.327]And then, the assessment report number four.
[00:36:11.382]You see also more complexity in terms of
[00:36:13.716]the number of layers of the atmosphere,
[00:36:15.585]the number of layers in the ocean
[00:36:17.338]that they're able to incorporate in these models.
[00:36:20.636]So, we're continuing to better understand
[00:36:22.470]the climate system and the technology in terms
[00:36:25.340]of computer power is allowing us to run
[00:36:27.546]bigger, more sophisticated models and so forth.
[00:36:31.261]So, when they run the models,
[00:36:34.419]they run the models and they have to look at,
[00:36:37.109]what are the various scenarios of increasing
[00:36:39.876]greenhouse gases that we're going to see in the future?
[00:36:43.135]No one knows what those are gonna be.
[00:36:45.119]We know where we are today,
[00:36:47.965]but where are we going to be in 20 years,
[00:36:49.459]40 years, 60 years, and so forth?
[00:36:52.176]So, the climate modelers look at scenarios.
[00:36:56.344]So, this first scenario is the red line,
[00:36:59.502]it's essentially a business as usual.
[00:37:01.418]We just keep doing what we're doing,
[00:37:02.881]burning more and more fossil fuel and so forth.
[00:37:05.667]Adding more and more carbon to the atmosphere.
[00:37:08.593]And then you have, at the other extreme you have,
[00:37:12.261]a situation where we may be decreasing
[00:37:14.502]tremendously the amount of emissions
[00:37:16.720]into the atmosphere, over a period of time.
[00:37:20.760]This is extremely optimistic.
[00:37:23.709]Probably won't happen.
[00:37:24.916]That's the lower emission scenario.
[00:37:27.424]This is a higher emission scenario,
[00:37:29.583]and quite frankly, business as usual.
[00:37:31.383]We're actually exceeding this level of input
[00:37:34.251]of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
[00:37:37.211]So, when people say, well, we can't really believe
[00:37:40.172]these models because they're not very good
[00:37:42.076]because look at the wide range of temperatures,
[00:37:43.875]and we'll talk about that in a minute,
[00:37:45.466]that are in these models.
[00:37:47.707]Actually, the largest uncertainty that you see
[00:37:49.843]when I give you some temperature ranges
[00:37:51.375]in a minute, the largest uncertainty is associated
[00:37:54.591]with the fact that we don't know
[00:37:56.751]what human behavior's gonna be
[00:37:58.620]over the next 30, 40, 60, 100 years.
[00:38:02.045]We don't know what the emissions
[00:38:03.858]are going to be and therefore,
[00:38:05.290]where the concentrations are gonna go.
[00:38:09.092]So, how do we go about looking at
[00:38:11.506]the implications of all of this on Nebraska?
[00:38:14.534]First thing, is we assessed the observed changes
[00:38:18.667]in climate that we've seen to date.
[00:38:21.175]So, over the historical record, looking back
[00:38:23.010]to the late, say, 1895 and that period.
[00:38:27.212]Secondly, we tried to interpret the projections
[00:38:30.045]that came from the National Climate Assessment Report.
[00:38:33.133]These are national in scope, but they also have
[00:38:35.421]projections at a regional scale and we tried to bring
[00:38:38.010]those down to Nebraska and interpret
[00:38:40.668]what that information was.
[00:38:42.874]And then, the third step in this process
[00:38:44.952]was to invite commentaries from experts
[00:38:48.923]in key sectors that we felt
[00:38:52.006]were important for Nebraska,
[00:38:55.889]and to have these experts
[00:38:59.209]talk about what
[00:39:01.379]these projected changes might be
[00:39:04.407]on each of these different sectors.
[00:39:06.517]These sectors were chosen, not just because
[00:39:10.052]they're important to Nebraska,
[00:39:11.712]but all of these sectors, with the exception
[00:39:14.046]of the insurance industry, all of these sectors
[00:39:16.960]were sectors that were addressed in the
[00:39:18.504]National Climate Assessment Report.
[00:39:20.919]So, we had that as a basis.
[00:39:23.334]Projections, projections at the regional level
[00:39:27.548]of the Great Plains, and then they drew some
[00:39:31.089]conclusions with regard to these sectors.
[00:39:33.551]So, these are included in the report
[00:39:35.455]and I encourage you to read those
[00:39:37.219]because I think there's a lot a great ideas there,
[00:39:39.344]a lot of great information.
[00:39:41.469]So, temperature increases.
[00:39:45.091]We don't mean to scare you, we're trying to give you
[00:39:47.566]what the science is telling us.
[00:39:51.459]For a low emission scenario, we just looked
[00:39:54.501]at a graph of that,
[00:39:56.936]we're looking at a temperature increase towards
[00:40:01.167]the final quarter of this century
[00:40:05.265]of four to five degrees Fahrenheit.
[00:40:09.884]And as I said, that's a pretty unrealistic scenario
[00:40:13.256]because it means that we're gonna have to adopt
[00:40:15.218]very strict controls on carbon emissions
[00:40:17.343]into the atmosphere.
[00:40:20.094]The higher emissions scenario is projecting
[00:40:24.715]an eight to nine degree increase in temperature,
[00:40:28.661]by the last quarter of this century.
[00:40:30.659]That's pretty scary.
[00:40:34.332]But again, the uncertainties are really related to
[00:40:38.417]the fact that we don't know what
[00:40:39.377]the future emissions are gonna be.
[00:40:41.881]So, it's important that we get a handle on those
[00:40:44.923]and we better understand those relationships.
[00:40:48.511]Another key finding is that projected high temperature
[00:40:51.715]stress days, so these are days over 100 degrees,
[00:40:55.175]are expected to increase dramatically to
[00:40:59.041]the final quarter of this century.
[00:41:01.084]Under the low emissions scenario,
[00:41:03.093]13-16 additional days.
[00:41:07.423]Under the high emissions scenario,
[00:41:09.634]22-25 additional days.
[00:41:13.246]So, try to remember those numbers, 'cause I'm gonna
[00:41:15.625]come back to that in a few minutes.
[00:41:18.795]Yesterday we had some conference calls
[00:41:21.674]talking to the congressional delegation
[00:41:23.923]and to the state senators, and so forth,
[00:41:26.709]and a question was raised,
[00:41:28.491]what if we're wrong on, for example,
[00:41:31.539]this first set of numbers?
[00:41:35.753]We may be wrong, but people need to understand
[00:41:38.628]that we could be wrong in both directions.
[00:41:42.296]So, it's not, people tend to think that
[00:41:43.980]we're gonna be wrong on the low side,
[00:41:46.102]but we could be wrong on the high side as well.
[00:41:50.393]The number of warm nights, we've seen an increase
[00:41:53.796]in that to date and this is going to continue in the future.
[00:41:57.128]Frost-free season, we've seen quite an increase
[00:41:59.218]in the length of the frost-free season
[00:42:02.122]and it's projected an additional two weeks added
[00:42:04.927]on to the frost-free season towards the end of this century.
[00:42:08.886]If you look at this in a map form,
[00:42:11.372]the low emissions scenario, whoops,
[00:42:16.425]the low emissions scenario is four to five degrees,
[00:42:19.508]that's this map here and you can see
[00:42:21.121]how Nebraska sits in that.
[00:42:22.909]And, the high emissions scenario, you can see
[00:42:24.500]where we sit at the four to nine degrees.
[00:42:27.135]So, this map comes out of the
[00:42:28.250]National Climate Assessment Report.
[00:42:31.536]And, this report is mandated by the U.S. Congress,
[00:42:34.215]by the way, so it's not something
[00:42:36.694]that's being done arbitrarily.
[00:42:40.618]Coming back to this issue of the number
[00:42:42.501]of high temperature stress days.
[00:42:44.625]This is the projection of high temperature stress days
[00:42:47.423]towards the end of the century, out to 2099.
[00:42:53.432]And, the higher emissions scenario are the red bars,
[00:42:57.636]the lower emissions scenario are the orange bars,
[00:43:01.421]and then you see these bars in brown,
[00:43:04.382]this is the historical number of high temperature
[00:43:08.132]stress days that would occur
[00:43:10.261]within these different regions.
[00:43:13.501]So, if you look at, you know, where are the big losers?
[00:43:16.832]Regional losers, the Southwestern United States,
[00:43:19.757]the Great Plains, and the Southeastern United States,
[00:43:24.076]with a dramatic increase in the number
[00:43:25.703]of high temperature stress days.
[00:43:30.334]So, you remember two years ago?
[00:43:34.339]We had a very severe, extreme to exceptional
[00:43:36.835]drought in Nebraska?
[00:43:38.797]And, over two-thirds of the United States?
[00:43:42.593]One of the characteristics of that drought
[00:43:44.294]was not just a deficiency of precipitation,
[00:43:47.708]but it was the extremely high temperatures
[00:43:50.006]that we were experiencing.
[00:43:51.922]So, this is the map that shows the number of days
[00:43:54.592]over 100 degrees in 2012,
[00:43:59.004]between June 1st and September 15th.
[00:44:03.218]And, I've extracted for a couple of locations,
[00:44:06.133]Lincoln and McCook.
[00:44:07.712]This is the number of days over 100 degrees
[00:44:09.964]in Lincoln and McCook in 2012.
[00:44:12.460]Lincoln was 17 days, McCook was 37 days.
[00:44:16.500]The average for McCook based on the last
[00:44:18.578]climatological period is about 11, they had 37.
[00:44:22.712]Lincoln's about five, and they had 17.
[00:44:26.253]And, you can see the similar comparisons for
[00:44:28.296]Scottsbluff, Valentine, and North Platte.
[00:44:33.079]So, the bottom line here is, if these projections
[00:44:36.089]hold out, by the last quarter of the century
[00:44:40.292]an average summer in Nebraska would be comparable to 2012.
[00:44:48.629]Think about that a minute.
[00:44:50.802]Ok, continuing on,
[00:44:53.773]precipitation,
[00:44:56.063]there really hasn't been much of an increase
[00:44:57.841]in precipitation in Nebraska.
[00:44:59.965]There's been an increase in the Northern Plains,
[00:45:01.672]we saw that on a previous map.
[00:45:04.345]A decrease in the Southern Plains
[00:45:06.173]and we expect that to continue.
[00:45:09.459]Again, little change in precipitation
[00:45:14.254]in winter and spring in Nebraska.
[00:45:17.839]Small projected changes in summer and fall,
[00:45:20.625]with a drying trend in the Central Plains
[00:45:24.434]during the summer.
[00:45:28.124]An increase in heavy precipitations, we've already
[00:45:30.379]seen that that's been occurring, that's expected
[00:45:32.713]to continue and an increase in precipitation,
[00:45:37.685]if there's any increase in precipitation, that's largely
[00:45:40.178]going to be ineffective because of the increasing
[00:45:42.094]temperatures increasing evaporative demand and so on.
[00:45:45.623]These high temperature stress days,
[00:45:47.214]warmer nights, and so forth.
[00:45:49.628]So, if you look at the projections by season,
[00:45:52.670]this is the summertime projection
[00:45:55.259]and you can see this drying pattern
[00:45:57.790]up into at least the southern half of Nebraska.
[00:46:05.046]Soil moisture, a combination of not much change
[00:46:07.922]in terms of precipitation,
[00:46:09.749]but looking at the increasing temperatures,
[00:46:13.954]the increase in high temperature stress days,
[00:46:16.252]the warmer nights and so on.
[00:46:17.970]We would expect maybe a decrease
[00:46:19.793]of soil moisture of five to 10%.
[00:46:23.844]Flood magnitude because of these high intensity
[00:46:26.416]rainfall events, flood magnitudes
[00:46:30.784]continuing to increase and what we've seen
[00:46:32.924]in the past is these have been
[00:46:34.381]increasing along the eastern margin of the Great Plains,
[00:46:37.214]because of these higher intensity precipitation events.
[00:46:40.581]Snow cover, this is a huge concern because
[00:46:44.621]the snow cover in the Central Rockies, for example,
[00:46:47.710]is what feeds the river, the Flat River for example,
[00:46:50.508]that flows across Nebraska.
[00:46:54.002]If we change the amount of precipitation
[00:46:57.172]that they're receiving in the Rockies,
[00:46:58.542]more rainfall and less snow.
[00:47:01.839]Snow melts slowly and it gradually feeds the rivers
[00:47:04.753]that flow across the state.
[00:47:07.493]Rainfall, on the other hand, runs off very quickly.
[00:47:09.920]So, if we want sustained stream flow surface water
[00:47:14.343]across the state, the idea of reduced snow pack
[00:47:18.795]in the Central Rockies and other places
[00:47:20.510]in the Rockies is cause for concern.
[00:47:24.086]And, if you look at the trend that we've seen so far,
[00:47:26.710]we've seen reduction in snow pack.
[00:47:29.996]But, if you look at the projections out
[00:47:31.795]towards the end of the century,
[00:47:34.001]we're looking at a continual reduction.
[00:47:36.078]Again, increasing temperatures,
[00:47:38.648]less precipitation falling in
[00:47:42.154]the form of snow.
[00:47:46.034]Now, one of the things we've also seen
[00:47:47.549]is that the tremendous increase in irrigation
[00:47:50.800]in the state of Nebraska has actually had
[00:47:53.459]a damping effect in terms of cooler
[00:47:56.623]and wetter conditions in our climate.
[00:48:01.343]So, if irrigation continues, as is,
[00:48:05.043]we might see that trend continue.
[00:48:07.458]But, the concern is about the sustainability of
[00:48:09.583]our water resources under situations
[00:48:11.835]of high temperature stress, more variable rainfall,
[00:48:14.552]less snow pack in the west and so forth.
[00:48:17.176]And, how this might affect recharge of ground water
[00:48:20.252]and therefore in the long run, the impacts on
[00:48:24.172]irrigation possibilities in the state of Nebraska.
[00:48:28.088]So, if we look at the map that looks at ground water
[00:48:31.408]level changes in Nebraska
[00:48:34.115]between 2012 and 2013
[00:48:36.625]as a result of the drought and the high temperatures
[00:48:40.299]that occurred, you can see that there were declines
[00:48:43.124]of anywhere of two to 15 feet.
[00:48:47.323]So, what if this were to occur for a second year,
[00:48:49.921]and a third year, and so on?
[00:48:52.592]So, again, once again, concerns.
[00:48:55.677]And so, we're looking at additional stress
[00:48:58.580]related to climate change because of not only
[00:49:00.379]increasing temperatures, increasing high temperature
[00:49:03.131]stress days, increasing number of warm nights,
[00:49:06.091]increasing evaporation, more extraction of ground water
[00:49:09.122]resources, and reduced recharge.
[00:49:12.326]So, once again, this is another important consideration.
[00:49:16.877]Takeaway points.
[00:49:17.838]So, let me conclude.
[00:49:23.678]First of all, I want to give you,
[00:49:24.878]from the National Climate Assessment Report,
[00:49:28.987]they had a chapter that focused on the Great Plains.
[00:49:32.960]And so, I'm gonna give you the conclusions
[00:49:35.839]from the Great Plains chapter, with regards to
[00:49:39.380]some of the concerns or the key messages
[00:49:42.618]for the Great Plains coming from this assessment,
[00:49:45.173]again the National Climate Assessment, which was
[00:49:47.379]involved over 300 scientists from throughout the country.
[00:49:51.338]So, the first one of these is related to
[00:49:55.877]rising temperature, I maybe need to read it from here
[00:49:59.093]'cause this is a weird angle.
[00:50:00.543]Rising temperatures are leading to increased demand
[00:50:02.877]for water and energy.
[00:50:06.000]Constraining development, stressing natural resources,
[00:50:08.926]and increasing competition for water amongst
[00:50:11.677]these various communities.
[00:50:17.715]A second key message was changes in
[00:50:20.341]the crop growth cycles due to warming winters
[00:50:24.497]and alterations in timing and magnitude of rainfall events.
[00:50:28.213]Once again, is going to, these have been observed
[00:50:31.800]and are going to require changes in new agricultural
[00:50:35.759]practices and livestock management practices.
[00:50:40.542]Landscape fragmentation related to the adaptation
[00:50:44.376]of species and their ability to move within the region
[00:50:48.254]is another one of their key messages.
[00:50:50.878]Another one was, communities that are already
[00:50:53.953]the most vulnerable to weather and climate extremes
[00:50:57.426]are gonna become more vulnerable in the future.
[00:51:02.267]And finally, the magnitude of expected changes
[00:51:06.970]will exceed those experienced in the last century.
[00:51:10.534]Existing adaptation planning methods,
[00:51:13.216]and so on, are inadequate.
[00:51:16.277]So, one of the conclusions, with regards to agriculture is
[00:51:19.961]the types of management practices,
[00:51:22.330]or variations in management practices that we've used
[00:51:25.105]in the past to essentially adapt to
[00:51:32.252]the weather variability that we experience
[00:51:34.537]in Nebraska all the time,
[00:51:36.499]that these are going to be inadequate by themselves.
[00:51:38.879]That it's going to require that we have
[00:51:41.488]more innovative managements practices
[00:51:45.618]and new technologies, and also a better
[00:51:50.303]understanding of the climate
[00:51:51.851]and how we can incorporate these changes
[00:51:53.802]in the climate in management decisions.
[00:51:58.457]So, assessing the impacts of projected change.
[00:52:01.702]So, here are some conclusions regarding
[00:52:04.547]the Nebraska climate projections.
[00:52:07.217]First of all, consequences depend on the
[00:52:10.491]sensitivity of key sectors.
[00:52:12.256]So obviously, different sectors have different levels
[00:52:15.412]of sensitivity to these kinds of changes.
[00:52:19.175]The ability of these sectors to adapt
[00:52:24.342]as these occur.
[00:52:26.088]So, how easy is it going to be for these different sectors
[00:52:30.338]to actually adapt to these changes?
[00:52:32.834]How proactive are these sectors going to be
[00:52:36.212]to these changes as they're occurring?
[00:52:39.254]The availability of ground water
[00:52:40.798]is another key variable here,
[00:52:45.041]in terms of response to increasing demand for water.
[00:52:49.672]And, mitigation measures in terms of what
[00:52:54.463]we're going to do as a global society, as a
[00:52:56.884]national society, and so on,
[00:52:58.800]to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
[00:53:03.746]So, another conclusion, with slight changes in precipitation
[00:53:07.212]amounts projected, increasing temperatures
[00:53:09.917]and the number of high temperature stress days,
[00:53:12.135]will be the critical factor affecting impact
[00:53:16.589]and the ability of various sectors to adapt
[00:53:18.659]to this changing climate.
[00:53:24.209]Some key takeaway messages.
[00:53:26.920]Dramatic changes in climate are being observed
[00:53:29.799]from global to local scales and one of our big concerns
[00:53:33.886]is how rapidly these changes are occurring
[00:53:36.754]and will continue to occur in the future.
[00:53:40.341]Human activities are the drivers of this change.
[00:53:45.159]Projections of future changes represent
[00:53:47.632]the current state of the climate sciences.
[00:53:51.870]And so, we obviously continue to increase our knowledge
[00:53:54.784]of the climate system and so forth,
[00:53:57.292]and that information's important.
[00:53:59.578]And the concern about surprises,
[00:54:02.342]things we don't understand yet that might cause us
[00:54:05.047]to be off in terms of these projections,
[00:54:07.834]either the projections being too low or possibly too high.
[00:54:13.047]Uncertainties associated with future changes
[00:54:15.011]are largely due to uncertainties
[00:54:19.214]in greenhouse gas emissions.
[00:54:21.385]And so again, the range of scenarios
[00:54:23.092]that are being looked at in order to get an idea
[00:54:25.553]about the range of changes, projected changes,
[00:54:27.875]that are likely to occur.
[00:54:29.709]And obviously, we must adapt to current and projected
[00:54:32.345]changes in climate, and hopefully try to mitigate
[00:54:35.328]as much of future warming as possible
[00:54:38.370]by reducing these greenhouse gases.
[00:54:43.467]Current projected changes in temperature
[00:54:46.334]will have positive benefits for some,
[00:54:49.132]negative consequences for others.
[00:54:51.337]So, usually when we talk about natural hazards occurring,
[00:54:54.426]drought for example, which I've worked in a lot,
[00:54:57.003]we talk about winners and losers.
[00:54:59.964]I think with climate change there are going to be
[00:55:01.717]winners and losers, probably more losers than winners,
[00:55:05.459]but this is going to vary on a regional basis.
[00:55:08.671]If you look at the Northern Great Plains
[00:55:10.029]that are projected to become warmer,
[00:55:13.010]more precipitation, there's some advantages
[00:55:16.209]that they can take into account in terms of
[00:55:19.188]their future planning regarding agriculture
[00:55:22.379]and other things.
[00:55:24.503]And, a very important point is that early adapters
[00:55:27.452]will be better able to cope with the changes.
[00:55:30.250]So, the sooner that various sectors can begin
[00:55:32.503]to incorporate these changes that we're seeing
[00:55:36.044]and that are projected in the future, the sooner
[00:55:39.132]they can incorporate those in their management,
[00:55:42.383]the better able they are going to be
[00:55:43.671]to deal with those projected changes.
[00:55:46.295]So, you don't wanna wait, sooner rather than later.
[00:55:50.498]Changes in frequency and severity of extreme events
[00:55:53.076]will continue, resulting in escalating social,
[00:55:56.210]environmental, and economic costs.
[00:55:59.704]Embedded in all challenges are opportunities,
[00:56:02.758]so we really need to be looking at,
[00:56:05.254]how we can improve the resilience of these sectors,
[00:56:08.877]these various sectors that I talked about,
[00:56:11.036]and other sectors that were not included
[00:56:12.963]in the study as well.
[00:56:15.053]And, a final point is action now is more
[00:56:19.094]cost-effective than reaction later.
[00:56:21.961]So, understanding, developing awareness of these changes,
[00:56:25.247]understanding the science of climate change.
[00:56:27.627]And, not denying that this science exists
[00:56:32.004]and what it's trying to tell us,
[00:56:34.128]is not the path we need to go down.
[00:56:36.427]We really need to adopt
[00:56:39.850]action-oriented strategies to adapt to
[00:56:42.909]this changing climate, while at the same time,
[00:56:45.372]finding ways to reduce our carbon emissions.
[00:56:51.881]Thank you very much for your attention.
[00:56:54.296]We will now have a panel discussion
[00:56:57.131]which Ronnie is going to lead.
[00:56:59.174]Thank you very much.
[00:57:00.482](applause)
[00:57:10.585]Well, we now will, we'll ask the other three co-authors
[00:57:15.171]of the report to join Dr. Wilhite at the table,
[00:57:18.802]and as I'd said earlier, if you have a question
[00:57:21.670]that you would like to address to them, please circulate it
[00:57:26.209]to the end of your aisle either way.
[00:57:29.007]So, if you're on this side, go that way.
[00:57:30.923]If you're this side, go this way.
[00:57:33.175]And, those will be collected
[00:57:35.825]and we'll get started with some discussion.
[00:57:38.709]So, as we're waiting on those first questions to come in,
[00:57:42.053]I would just point out to you, as Don said,
[00:57:46.511]the hard copy, printed copy of the report,
[00:57:49.910]we have 500 copies available here today
[00:57:53.625]that you can pick up on your way out of the venue.
[00:57:57.968]And, it also will be available in PDF electronic form,
[00:58:01.386]as he indicated, online.
[00:58:03.337]So, we hope if you want a copy today
[00:58:06.797]that you can get one and take it with you.
[00:58:10.094]I also would point out to you,
[00:58:11.545]we didn't say much at the beginning
[00:58:13.217]about this particular venue, it's a little bit different
[00:58:16.711]for a livestock guy like me to be standing on
[00:58:19.254]the floor of a former exhibition livestock
[00:58:21.715]exhibition building having an event like this.
[00:58:25.779]But, I hope that you'll agree with me
[00:58:27.509]that the transformation of this facility
[00:58:30.342]into a new conference facility available
[00:58:33.174]for the public here at Innovation Campus,
[00:58:36.414]has been a fabulous transformation.
[00:58:38.712]We have construction going on around us,
[00:58:40.709]as you see, in the first phase of the development
[00:58:43.716]of Innovation Campus, but we really appreciate
[00:58:45.841]the UNL Alumni Association who is managing
[00:58:49.173]this facility, this conference facility
[00:58:51.460]and their hospitality in hosting us here today.
[00:58:55.379]So, questions, do we have questions from the audience?
[00:59:00.838]Ronnie, I might mention that there are students
[00:59:03.253]that can pick up the cards along here, so,
[00:59:05.912]to pass them down to the end of the aisles.
[00:59:13.758]We'll just go straight with a good one
[00:59:15.210]right at the start.
[00:59:16.835](audience laughing) OK, Bob's gonna answer that.
[00:59:19.169]So, these folks told me they were gonna divvy over
[00:59:22.819]how they answer the questions, so whoever is the,
[00:59:25.538]wants to take these on, please do so.
[00:59:29.553]Do faculty members at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln
[00:59:33.209]face funding pressures from outside funders
[00:59:36.506]to downplay the effects of human-influenced climate change?
[00:59:42.253]Told you we were starting with one.
[00:59:43.675](audience laughing)
[00:59:45.631]We don't feel any pressure
[00:59:47.579]one way or the other, OK?
[00:59:50.639]The funding, I don't know where this confusion comes from,
[00:59:53.840]that we have to say certain things
[00:59:55.593]or our funding depends on it.
[00:59:57.254]That shows total lack of understanding
[00:59:59.924]of how the funding process works.
[01:00:02.130]No, our funding, in no way, shape or form,
[01:00:04.682]depends on which side of the climate change
[01:00:07.869]picture we fall on.
[01:00:13.085]That the prevailing opinion of the group?
[01:00:15.756]Yes.
[01:00:16.668]All right.
[01:00:17.969](audience laughing)
[01:00:20.337]Second question, what changes are needed
[01:00:23.547]in agricultural practices and who will,
[01:00:27.325]or which agency, coordinate them?
[01:00:37.174]I'll take a shot at that one 'cause I am in the
[01:00:39.139]Institute of Agriculture and Natural Resources, so.
[01:00:42.950]Well, I'm not necessarily an agricultural scientist,
[01:00:45.420]but I think there are a lot of different organizations
[01:00:49.333]that need to become involved in this.
[01:00:52.119]Obviously, we have state agencies
[01:00:53.838]that need to become involved.
[01:00:56.380]Think about the Nebraska Department of Agriculture,
[01:00:58.841]but also the Department of Natural Resources.
[01:01:01.870]Looking at a better understanding of water management
[01:01:04.960]issues in the state, and so forth, and allocations,
[01:01:08.442]and how climate changes may affect
[01:01:11.214]the availability of water in the future.
[01:01:13.792]The University obviously has to play, I think,
[01:01:15.719]a tremendous role in this process.
[01:01:18.424]Both, in terms of, in educating our students
[01:01:21.254]and it's not just the University of Nebraska,
[01:01:22.926]it's all educational institutions
[01:01:24.804]and even K to 12.
[01:01:27.994]Educating our students about this issue
[01:01:32.000]and through organizations like
[01:01:36.621]the Extension Service, for example.
[01:01:38.754]The Extension Service within INR has already launched
[01:01:42.667]a new initiative to develop a new action plan
[01:01:45.755]that's focusing on climate change resiliency.
[01:01:49.633]And so, for those faculty to have Extension appointments,
[01:01:53.046]you know, I encourage them to become aware
[01:01:55.542]of this activity and to become involved in it,
[01:01:59.002]and help in the development of this new activity.
[01:02:03.635]So, there's a wide range of players.
[01:02:05.756]Including players, obviously, in the private sector.
[01:02:10.424]There are a couple of questions in the stack
[01:02:12.422]that relate to this one, I'll try
[01:02:14.335]to blend them together.
[01:02:17.055]What research and outreach is the University
[01:02:19.167]doing to help Nebraskans reduce greenhouse gas emissions
[01:02:22.093]in agriculture, electric utilities, and transportation?
[01:02:25.216]Related, what specifically needs to change in Nebraska
[01:02:27.958]to bring down greenhouse gas emissions?
[01:02:29.922]That kind of thread of question.
[01:02:34.548]There's some people in the audience
[01:02:36.209]that might be better prepared to deal with that.
[01:02:38.750]I think through the agricultural research division
[01:02:41.293]there's a lot of research that's going on
[01:02:44.044]looking at reducing the carbon footprint
[01:02:46.053]of agriculture in general.
[01:02:48.456]But also, for the other sectors, you'll see
[01:02:52.483]in the report there's a plot that shows
[01:02:55.546]for the principle sectors in Nebraska,
[01:02:59.296]what the trend of greenhouse gas emissions
[01:03:01.827]has been over the last 20 or 30 years.
[01:03:04.915]And, you'll see that all these sectors have had
[01:03:07.133]an increase and so all of those sectors need
[01:03:10.128]to take part in this process of looking at how
[01:03:13.159]to reduce our carbon footprint.
[01:03:16.049]I just want to remind that this is why
[01:03:18.371]we solicited all the expert commentaries for the report.
[01:03:21.924]We're basically experts on climate science,
[01:03:24.671]we can't be experts on every area that's impacted
[01:03:27.926]by that climate science, that's what
[01:03:29.587]the commentaries are for.
[01:03:31.356]Also, Don pointed out the graph that
[01:03:34.297]shows the trends in CO2 emissions from various sectors.
[01:03:38.964]And, we also have to consider the magnitude
[01:03:41.756]of each of those sectors, and the largest sectors
[01:03:44.798]are not necessarily agriculture or agriculture production,
[01:03:47.503]it's electricity generation and transportation
[01:03:50.160]are the two biggest sectors.
[01:03:52.751]And so, there are people I know in
[01:03:54.504]the College of Engineering, for example,
[01:03:55.921]that are working on renewable energy, and so forth.
[01:03:58.126]Right.
[01:03:59.090]In terms of the University's contribution.
[01:04:00.797]His mic's not on.
[01:04:02.132]It's on, but it keeps going off.
[01:04:05.229]Here, mine's on.
[01:04:06.299]They can adjust that up--
[01:04:07.495]I'll just talk loud, I'm good at that. (laughing)
[01:04:10.386]Or you can use Bob's mic.
[01:04:11.594]I think, whoa, mine's really loud.
[01:04:14.299]I think to expand upon what Clint said,
[01:04:17.583]in terms of, you know, there are people in other colleges.
[01:04:20.510]We have a wide range of expertise at
[01:04:23.034]the University and it's not just the hard sciences
[01:04:27.926]like climatology or engineering, or even
[01:04:32.219]agricultural science.
[01:04:34.086]Climate change is multidisciplinary and we're going
[01:04:36.881]to need all of the resources that we have at the University.
[01:04:41.713]We also need the social scientist and the psychologist
[01:04:44.218]to help bring people together.
[01:04:45.994]To help us have those conversations,
[01:04:48.084]to keep those conversations on a positive solution
[01:04:51.915]oriented focus, rather than a doom
[01:04:54.339]and gloom type of thing.
[01:04:55.999]So, I guess I challenge all of you to think
[01:04:58.960]more broadly about finding the solutions
[01:05:02.466]and all of the talent that we have in this room,
[01:05:05.217]and in this state, and among our students.
[01:05:07.968]I can't emphasize enough the importance of social sciences
[01:05:11.636]to be involved in this discussion, for precisely
[01:05:16.594]the reason that Deborah was talking about.
[01:05:19.586]When we look at these future emission scenarios,
[01:05:22.303]we're looking at how we can change human behavior
[01:05:26.250]and get people to value the environment for today
[01:05:29.675]and for the future.
[01:05:31.718]And, physical scientists, as one group,
[01:05:36.575]you know, we don't necessarily understand
[01:05:38.507]human behavior but that's the role of the social sciences.
[01:05:41.293]So, they play a critically important role
[01:05:44.081]in this process of trying to move,
[01:05:46.088]not just this country forward,
[01:05:48.050]but the world forward on this issue.
[01:05:50.802]OK, the next question.
[01:05:52.834]Does it make any difference to us in Nebraska
[01:05:56.003]in reducing greenhouse gas emissions,
[01:05:58.592]or other ways to mitigate, if India
[01:06:02.458]and China don't do the same?
[01:06:05.676]Well, the reality is that China is really having
[01:06:08.874]some very serious discussions right now
[01:06:11.719]about reductions of carbon emissions,
[01:06:15.341]and we'll have to see how those play out.
[01:06:17.756]So, they're beginning to step up to this process.
[01:06:20.866]I mean, I feel the United States, as a technological leader
[01:06:25.047]that we've been for many, many years,
[01:06:28.345]that we need to be putting
[01:06:30.876]our best foot forward on this.
[01:06:33.546]And, you have to think about the fact
[01:06:34.954]that we've created a lot of this problem.
[01:06:37.081]If you look at the energy dependence of this country
[01:06:39.842]and how much energy we use, we've helped
[01:06:43.337]create the problem that we see.
[01:06:45.450]And obviously, this is going to be perpetuated by
[01:06:47.760]other countries, like India and China.
[01:06:50.628]Other comment?
[01:06:51.300]Yeah, I thought that basically, we in the United States,
[01:06:54.795]we used to think of ourselves as leaders,
[01:06:57.628]leaders for the world.
[01:06:58.963]Waiting to see how other countries act
[01:07:01.088]is not taking a leadership role.
[01:07:03.886]Exactly, and while China has passed us in total emissions,
[01:07:07.137]we are still the leader in per capita emissions.
[01:07:10.132]And so, we have to keep in mind
[01:07:11.920]that we have a long way to go
[01:07:14.219]and a big leadership role to fill.
[01:07:16.912]And there are, as Don pointed out in the talk,
[01:07:19.292]there are plenty of opportunities that are
[01:07:21.453]gonna go missing if we don't take a leadership role.
[01:07:24.784]The development of new technologies to adopt
[01:07:27.338]means that we could license those technologies
[01:07:30.008]to other countries, to other adopters,
[01:07:32.086]and make money on the deal,
[01:07:34.755]not just spend money.
[01:07:39.051]And, produce some of those
[01:07:40.261]technologies in this state, too.
[01:07:43.877]So, first of all, thank you for all these great questions,
[01:07:46.756]'cause there's a, as you can see,
[01:07:48.335]quite a stack of them that have come in.
[01:07:50.762]And thankfully, some of them are in buckets
[01:07:53.409]that are somewhat related.
[01:07:57.105]This next one has maybe a little philosophical approach
[01:08:00.835]to it, but I think it's a good question for you.
[01:08:04.214]Do you believe we, i.e. humanity, can fix
[01:08:08.126]this global problem or it is too late
[01:08:11.551]and we must just prepare to adapt instead of prevent?
[01:08:16.172]Do we have the global political will
[01:08:18.053]and instruments in order to make change?
[01:08:23.840]Who wants that one?
[01:08:25.118]That's a rhetorical question,
[01:08:27.452]we can't answer that for you.
[01:08:29.579]In fact, the people in this room can't answer that
[01:08:32.178]because the people of the globe
[01:08:34.546]as a whole have to answer that.
[01:08:36.590]Do we have the will or do we not have the will?
[01:08:39.005]I mean, we're all in this together.
[01:08:40.676]We all live on this planet together.
[01:08:43.173]And, this is the place where the United States
[01:08:45.378]could provide strong leadership, rather than
[01:08:48.619]being a reluctant,
[01:08:51.627]if at all, follower.
[01:08:53.844]Rather than waiting for somebody else,
[01:08:55.585]if we take a leadership role, I think we could
[01:08:58.418]provide some political backbone to the whole world.
[01:09:02.292]I think this same goes for this state, too.
[01:09:04.499]I mean, this state can be a leader within the United States.
[01:09:11.701]OK, this is a technical question,
[01:09:13.501]so Don I'll throw it to you.
[01:09:15.428](audience laughing)
[01:09:17.170]What is meant by plant hardiness?
[01:09:20.917]Plant hardiness.
[01:09:21.792]Well, we're talking about the ability of plants
[01:09:24.588]to essentially sustain
[01:09:28.761]cold temperatures, and so forth, and survive that.
[01:09:32.371]So, when we talk about plant hardiness zones,
[01:09:34.774]many of you have gardens and when you plant seeds,
[01:09:37.921]you look, you know, you look at the back
[01:09:39.741]of the seed packet and you see whether or not
[01:09:42.042]the seed you're gonna plant
[01:09:43.702]is adapted to live in this climate.
[01:09:47.835]And obviously, you're not gonna be planting palm trees
[01:09:50.297]in your backyard because they're not hardy
[01:09:53.292]in our particular climate, so.
[01:09:56.697]Yet.
[01:09:57.737]Yet, yet (laughs).
[01:09:59.515](audience laughing)
[01:10:04.126]Yeah, good sidebar comment.
[01:10:08.512]OK.
[01:10:09.784]This next question, there's several in here
[01:10:11.632]that relate to this.
[01:10:13.454]Insurance was added as an impacted sector,
[01:10:17.425]I know Don, you had mentioned in
[01:10:19.341]some earlier conversations the last few days,
[01:10:21.500]the importance of the insurance industry
[01:10:23.659]in Nebraska certainly is part of the reason for that.
[01:10:27.630]Please touch on the findings, for example,
[01:10:30.463]what did that commentary kind of say?
[01:10:33.876]Any summary comments there.
[01:10:36.674]Well, yeah, the reason I chose to include that,
[01:10:40.633]even though it wasn't one of the sectors
[01:10:42.839]that was addressed in the National Climate
[01:10:44.256]Assessment Report, is because we have,
[01:10:47.286]Adam, are you in the audience or did you ask that question?
[01:10:50.537]Adam Liska, there's Adam.
[01:10:52.592]Is that your question, Adam?
[01:10:54.594](audience laughing)
[01:10:57.136]Adam has been looking at the linkages
[01:10:58.669]between climate change and insurance.
[01:11:01.258]And, many of you may know that the insurance industry
[01:11:04.544]is really, probably, the largest industry in the world.
[01:11:07.969]Incredible revenues associated with insurance.
[01:11:12.211]And so, I showed a graph that looked at the frequency
[01:11:16.535]of natural disasters and the increasing frequency
[01:11:19.710]of natural disasters.
[01:11:21.242]This is of major concern to the insurance industry.
[01:11:26.084]And, that particular graph was from Munich Reinsurance,
[01:11:29.842]which is the largest reinsurance firm.
[01:11:32.292]So, they insure the insurance companies
[01:11:34.962]and they are very concerned about
[01:11:37.841]the increasing number of extreme events and
[01:11:40.068]how this is impacting the insurance sector.
[01:11:42.961]And so, it's important to Nebraska, which is why
[01:11:45.794]I included it in the report, because we have
[01:11:48.627]a lot of insurance companies that are based here.
[01:11:52.551]And so, this is an important sector for Nebraska
[01:11:55.802]and so I thought it was worthwhile.
[01:11:57.927]And, this is a future study area, I think,
[01:12:00.829]for Adam and some of his students,
[01:12:03.035]and also for some of the climate science faculty
[01:12:07.261]in the School of Natural Resources and
[01:12:08.794]Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences.
[01:12:12.509]Anybody else?
[01:12:14.343]That it?
[01:12:17.388]This next one I'll, and again I'm trying
[01:12:19.283]to collate these that are alike
[01:12:21.297]so there's several on this topic as well. You're doing a great job.
[01:12:23.967]Agriculture is both a huge source and sink for carbon.
[01:12:28.837]What needs to be done for Nebraska
[01:12:30.784]to capitalize on the sink side?
[01:12:37.552]Well, I'll start on that if you guys wanna add.
[01:12:42.306]I mean, I think there are a number of research programs
[01:12:45.460]that are going on that are looking at that issue
[01:12:48.409]of carbon sequestration and the role
[01:12:50.464]that agriculture can play.
[01:12:52.426]But, one of the things I would say is that,
[01:12:56.931]a couple of decades ago when a lot of discussions
[01:12:59.002]started about the role of agriculture
[01:13:01.510]in terms of greenhouse gas emissions, and so on.
[01:13:05.005]A lot of those in the agricultural sector
[01:13:07.257]just walked away from the table,
[01:13:09.672]instead of being at the the table.
[01:13:12.052]I think the agriculture sector is now
[01:13:14.035]going back to the table, which is a very positive thing
[01:13:17.752]because agriculture is an important contributor,
[01:13:20.585]but also a mitigating industry to this particular issue.
[01:13:25.009]And so, agriculture needs to be right in the middle
[01:13:27.424]of the discussion about this issue in the future, so.
[01:13:31.255]Anyone else?
[01:13:33.043]I'm no expert, but I do talk to people
[01:13:35.829]who are in this area and as I understand it,
[01:13:38.627]the two primary issues would be how much
[01:13:41.704]net carbon is actually stored in the soil
[01:13:44.966]as a result of agriculture activities.
[01:13:47.335]Recognizing that vegetation cycles carbon dioxide
[01:13:50.841]on an annual basis, so it depends on latitudes.
[01:13:53.465]In summer strong CO2 down, but in winter
[01:13:56.792]when the leaves die, it gives us the carbon dioxide back.
[01:14:00.298]Furthermore, it's also not clear what the long-term
[01:14:03.375]implications of storing additional carbon in the soil
[01:14:07.125]will be for the overall productivity of that soil,
[01:14:10.539]the jury's still out.
[01:14:11.676]I don't think the soil scientists really know that well.
[01:14:18.044]And, there are a whole thread of questions
[01:14:20.204]in here that relate to next steps, and particularly
[01:14:24.453]next steps associated with the use of the report,
[01:14:29.213]for policy, for use
[01:14:31.742]by government.
[01:14:34.292]So, things like, now that we have a better understanding
[01:14:36.837]of the science, how do we get the policymakers engaged,
[01:14:39.080]take action in the state, so forth?
[01:14:42.421]So, comments on that thread
[01:14:44.371]of hopeful use of the report?
[01:14:47.261]Yeah, I mean, I think that the report provides
[01:14:49.539]a foundation in terms of our understanding
[01:14:52.303]of climate science, climate change science,
[01:14:56.877]and its implications for Nebraska.
[01:14:59.170]I think the commentaries that were written
[01:15:01.085]by 12 different individuals, the majority of them
[01:15:05.509]were University of Nebraska faculty,
[01:15:07.784]but I also asked for commentaries from people
[01:15:11.093]outside of the University, so, some state agency
[01:15:13.752]personnel are involved in those.
[01:15:16.376]We also have Milo Mumgaard.
[01:15:18.419]Milo, do you happen to be here?
[01:15:21.008]Milo's in the back, he's the
[01:15:22.050]sustainability coordinator for Mayor Beutler.
[01:15:24.801]The city of Lincoln is doing some outstanding
[01:15:26.636]things already in terms of adapting to climate change
[01:15:29.968]and looking at mitigating the amount
[01:15:33.543]of carbon that we're releasing.
[01:15:35.552]So, I think that the sector commentaries
[01:15:38.002]provide a starting point.
[01:15:40.544]The report itself obviously provides a starting point.
[01:15:44.004]But, I think the next step is for various groups
[01:15:48.218]around the state, and I know there are
[01:15:49.540]a number of watch parties that are going on
[01:15:51.585]now and they're gonna be more.
[01:15:53.629]These various community groups,
[01:15:56.926]various groups that are really interested in this
[01:15:59.029]particular issue need to be communicating
[01:16:03.086]to their elected officials and asking them, you know,
[01:16:06.093]what is your position on this?
[01:16:08.462]For example, has either gubernatorial candidate
[01:16:11.814]been asked that question?
[01:16:14.093]And if so, what was their response?
[01:16:16.333]I mean, I think we need to be probing
[01:16:18.261]our state legislatures, obviously
[01:16:21.319]our elected officials in Washington D.C.,
[01:16:25.585]and also our governor, our future governor,
[01:16:29.962]and so on, on this issue.
[01:16:31.703]So, state agencies, I think, are gonna play a huge role.
[01:16:35.256]But, in order to influence, I think the pattern
[01:16:38.089]of what state agencies will do with this report,
[01:16:40.585]I think you have to get to the governor.
[01:16:43.882]Yeah, when Ronnie asked that question I,
[01:16:46.294]or whoever asked the question and Ronnie read it,
[01:16:49.173]I had a one word answer and then Deb actually
[01:16:53.001]said she had the same one word answer, vote.
[01:16:56.635]As Don said, talk to the people who want to be
[01:16:58.969]your elected officials and vote for the ones
[01:17:01.175]that are going to work to guide the state
[01:17:04.960]and the country in that direction.
[01:17:07.003]And if you can't talk to them,
[01:17:08.129]look at their voting records online,
[01:17:10.509]they're all available.
[01:17:12.425]And, I would just add one comment
[01:17:15.211]to what the authors have said.
[01:17:18.009]The genesis of this report was actually because
[01:17:22.258]the legislature of the state of Nebraska,
[01:17:25.300]in a previous session, asked for a study of this area
[01:17:29.410]to be done and some of you will remember
[01:17:31.419]the debate about that, over recent months.
[01:17:34.960]And, we felt it was very important to contribute
[01:17:37.758]to that area in what way we could, so we offered
[01:17:41.171]to do the report in the way that it's been done.
[01:17:43.470]So, that's certainly the intent and hope of the use
[01:17:46.337]of the report is that it will be informative
[01:17:49.542]for state and local policymakers as they think
[01:17:54.453]about adaptation in these areas.
[01:17:57.286]This next, kind of, focal area of questions
[01:17:59.828]and there's about eight or nine of them that relate to it.
[01:18:04.182]Relates to the water area
[01:18:06.832]and you talked about, Don, in the summer,
[01:18:11.522]some implications around snow pack,
[01:18:13.576]some implications around ground water,
[01:18:15.468]surface water, rain events,
[01:18:19.186]snow events, and so forth.
[01:18:21.186]And, the questions all relate to concern
[01:18:23.753]about the Ogallala Aquifer.
[01:18:26.794]Things like do we expect to see, or are you predicting
[01:18:31.009]to see the changes in the aquifer in Nebraska
[01:18:33.703]similar to what we've seen, perhaps,
[01:18:35.502]further south already
[01:18:38.462]in those parts of the aquifer?
[01:18:41.005]Any further elaboration on that area
[01:18:44.546]ground water resources in Nebraska. You wanna go first?
[01:18:47.669]It was very scary what happened to
[01:18:50.084]the Loup River in the summer of 2012.
[01:18:53.369]Historically, the rivers that come out of the sandhills
[01:18:56.504]maintain a pretty constant flow,
[01:18:58.965]even during summer, because they're so
[01:19:01.136]well buffered by the aquifer.
[01:19:03.586]Unfortunately, what happened to the Loup River
[01:19:05.827]in 2012, where the Loup began to look
[01:19:08.752]almost like the Platte River does typically in summer.
[01:19:11.968]That could be a harbinger of will happen if
[01:19:15.126]the Ogallala Aquifer continues to be depleted.
[01:19:19.706]And, I might add, I mean, we have a tremendous
[01:19:22.545]vehicle in this state to manage that aquifer
[01:19:25.552]in the natural resource districts and I think
[01:19:29.035]they've done an excellent job of doing that to date.
[01:19:32.673]But, they need to be looking at this kind of information.
[01:19:35.301]If they're charged with the management
[01:19:37.995]of our ground water resources for the future
[01:19:40.876]and they're not taking into account
[01:19:44.046]the long-term sustainability of those aquifers
[01:19:46.844]under projected climate changes, then we've got a problem.
[01:19:51.402]And so, the natural resources districts really need
[01:19:54.169]to take a leading role in this because
[01:19:56.294]we don't wanna go down the path of the states
[01:19:58.837]to our south, and there's really no reason for us
[01:20:01.285]to do this if we properly manage that resource
[01:20:04.746]and adapt to the changes as we see them.
[01:20:08.954]Any other comments?
[01:20:11.288]A couple of questions in this line:
[01:20:15.008]U.S. Military was not consulted as a key sector
[01:20:18.456]expert in the list that the report provided.
[01:20:23.042]Please discuss what you know about
[01:20:24.877]military planning around climate change,
[01:20:28.046]if you have any comments there.
[01:20:30.090]And a related question, what about
[01:20:31.912]first responders in the public,
[01:20:35.803]for example, the National Guard, Red Cross, etc. Right.
[01:20:39.048]Well, let me address
[01:20:40.708]the perspective of the military.
[01:20:44.621]First, I will tell you
[01:20:46.091]that on October 30th,
[01:20:49.651]in the city campus union, there's going to be lecture
[01:20:53.712]on climate change and national security,
[01:20:56.542]by David Titley, who is a retired Rear Admiral
[01:21:00.542]from the U.S. Navy, who's currently on
[01:21:03.131]the faculty at Penn State University.
[01:21:05.836]So again, he's going to talk about
[01:21:07.384]climate change and national security.
[01:21:10.421]I'll also tell you that recently, many of you are familiar
[01:21:14.670]with the General Accountability Office,
[01:21:17.462]the General Accountability Office is requested
[01:21:20.260]by members of Congress to do studies
[01:21:22.175]on a wide range of different topics.
[01:21:24.637]They were recently asked to do a study
[01:21:26.959]on the implications of climate change
[01:21:29.746]on the vulnerability of U.S. Military bases
[01:21:33.251]around the world, of which there are many.
[01:21:37.048]They produced a report that indicated that
[01:21:41.041]there needs to be significant adaptation measures
[01:21:44.048]taken for many of these facilities,
[01:21:46.336]including things like the Naval Base
[01:21:47.795]in Norfolk, Virginia, from sea level rise.
[01:21:51.660]I'll also tell you that the U.S. Congress,
[01:21:55.539]in passing the military budget for the
[01:21:57.547]Defense Department, precluded the Defense Department
[01:22:00.926]for spending any of those funds
[01:22:02.586]on adapting to climate change.
[01:22:05.965]We have a huge disconnect on this issue
[01:22:09.633]and the way to address that, again,
[01:22:13.256]is through voting and to finding out what your
[01:22:15.880]elected officials are doing or not doing to deal
[01:22:20.048]with this particular issue.
[01:22:23.380]Other comments?
[01:22:27.042]I don't have anything.
[01:22:27.867]OK, OK.
[01:22:29.550](inaudible comments) This next one either--
[01:22:33.717]This next one, either came from
[01:22:34.882]a really good student or somebody's professor.
[01:22:38.713]One of the two. Oh.
[01:22:40.135]So the, and the question is a technical one,
[01:22:42.216]related to the curves that you show in the report
[01:22:46.709]for CO2 emission, greenhouse gas accumulation,
[01:22:50.412]those kind of curves. Seems like one of your questions.
[01:22:52.049]Whether they are, in fact, linear or quadratic.
[01:22:54.917](audience laughing)
[01:22:57.545]Hit it, Bob or Clint.
[01:22:59.333]Quadratic is not linear.
[01:23:01.086](laughing) Definitely not linear, yeah.
[01:23:05.462]And, the second question on that kind of vein is,
[01:23:08.492]by focusing on the late 1800's
[01:23:11.368]as a base line, and I think there was
[01:23:14.623]a fair amount of inferences in the report about it,
[01:23:17.584]since 1895, since the late 1800's.
[01:23:21.171]Are you cherry picking the data?
[01:23:24.294]No, actually, that's just the beginning
[01:23:26.001]of the widespread observational record
[01:23:28.091]in the United States, and mostly worldwide, as well.
[01:23:32.459]But, we didn't really have good widespread observations
[01:23:34.885]prior to that time, so we're going back
[01:23:36.836]as far as we can in the instrumental record.
[01:23:40.667]Cherry picking the data would involve
[01:23:42.838]taking a certain segment of that data, OK?
[01:23:46.286]Say, I'm only going to look at from 1998 through 2008.
[01:23:51.012]I'm gonna cherry pick that data because
[01:23:53.090]those 10 years don't seem to show as much
[01:23:55.249]warming as the 10 years before, or the 10 years after.
[01:23:58.419]That is cherry picking your data.
[01:24:00.300]We look at the entire lent of the data that we have.
[01:24:03.678]If we had data that went back several hundred years,
[01:24:06.464]we would be using it.
[01:24:07.591]Unfortunately, we simply do not.
[01:24:12.170]And, there are a number of questions
[01:24:13.955]that are along the theme of relating
[01:24:17.171]information on this topic.
[01:24:19.876]So, who are the best messengers
[01:24:21.747]to relay information on this topic?
[01:24:23.998]There's some questions like that,
[01:24:26.006]and this one, probably, is more poignant.
[01:24:29.245]How do you address the gaps in science literacy
[01:24:32.090]and public understanding on issues as complex as this?
[01:24:36.884]For example, people who trust the science
[01:24:38.962]of climate change, but don't trust the science
[01:24:41.748]of biotechnology, and vice versa.
[01:24:45.629](panel laughing)
[01:24:46.877]Any comments there? It's an interesting, interesting question.
[01:24:49.628]It's an interesting conundrum. I wish I knew.
[01:24:51.741](panel laughing)
[01:24:54.885]Well, it's certainly a dangerous trend in this country,
[01:24:58.868]maybe in other countries as well,
[01:25:00.919]of what's called denialism.
[01:25:03.419]Which is essentially, ignoring what the science
[01:25:06.217]tells us and then believing, essentially, hearsay,
[01:25:11.000]or what's coming from non-credible sources.
[01:25:13.380]And so, it's really important that we focus on
[01:25:16.677]the science and the science behind that science,
[01:25:20.368]and so forth, in the future.
[01:25:22.459]Yeah, I winked at our Provost who's sitting here
[01:25:25.501]when you said that because Susan Fritz,
[01:25:28.380]the Provost of the University of Nebraska system,
[01:25:30.377]we're glad Susan's with us today,
[01:25:32.177]gave me this book four years ago when I arrived on campus.
[01:25:36.670]The title of it is, Denialism, and it goes through a series
[01:25:41.465]of case studies using a whole variety of things
[01:25:46.328]where there is a societal move to deny the science
[01:25:50.219]associated with those various things.
[01:25:53.284]And actually, climate science was one of those
[01:25:56.093]examples amongst biotech and a number
[01:25:58.090]of other things as well.
[01:26:00.923]This one's a fun question,
[01:26:02.084]I just wanna know what you say.
[01:26:03.547](panel laughing)
[01:26:04.872]As a former skeptic myself,
[01:26:08.089]this is from the audience, have any of you been
[01:26:10.213]a late believer that humans are causing climate change,
[01:26:14.915]and if so, what made you change your mind?
[01:26:16.843]I think I know the answer to that,
[01:26:17.969]but I just thought I'd ask it anyway.
[01:26:20.093]I was not.
[01:26:22.873]I got interested in the study of climate,
[01:26:25.379]in the first place, because I became fascinated
[01:26:28.630]between the relationship over the advent
[01:26:30.592]of human agriculture in what we now think of
[01:26:33.494]as the Middle East and the impact that that agricultural
[01:26:37.177]activity may have had on the intensification
[01:26:39.580]of desertificiation in that region, so I guess no.
[01:26:43.133]My background is looking at the links between
[01:26:45.864]climate and changes in the land vegetation,
[01:26:49.507]and how it affects populations, and so forth, so, no.
[01:26:53.617]I guess my question is, what do you consider a latecomer?
[01:26:56.380]Because if you look at me compared to these guys,
[01:26:59.038]I might be (laughs), I might be a latecomer.
[01:27:02.011]Good answer.
[01:27:03.427](audience laughing)
[01:27:09.835]They are creative people. I said that--
[01:27:12.837]I said that with love and respect.
[01:27:14.786](audience laughing)
[01:27:17.819]We'll bring our questions to a close with
[01:27:19.711]this kind of thread of questions.
[01:27:21.882]So, there's been a lot of interest in the report
[01:27:25.132]and a number of the questions that came forward
[01:27:27.466]had to do with, specifically agriculture's response
[01:27:31.993]to dealing with this issue.
[01:27:33.968]So, how can agriculture respond?
[01:27:36.660]How can the agricultural community,
[01:27:38.336]including farmers and ranchers,
[01:27:40.213]respond to this?
[01:27:42.210]And, there's two questions here,
[01:27:44.509]one is more general that says,
[01:27:46.668]how quickly and slowly will plants and animals,
[01:27:49.420]and by animals I'm gonna include wildlife
[01:27:51.938]as well as domestic animals,
[01:27:54.421]adapt to projected changes?
[01:27:57.671]Percentage that might not be able to adapt?
[01:27:59.250]So that's a broader question.
[01:28:00.992]And then secondly, I think Dr. Wilhite,
[01:28:03.465]you mentioned UNL Extension,
[01:28:06.286]how fast can the farming sector expect
[01:28:08.422]to get advice from UNL Extension
[01:28:11.454]on ideas to farm smart?
[01:28:14.324]Or, climate-smart agriculture is now quite a topic
[01:28:18.655]amongst our efforts.
[01:28:22.890]Well, on the second part of that question, I mean,
[01:28:25.718]Extension is launching this action program now,
[01:28:30.664]and trying to bring together the faculty resources
[01:28:33.242]to address this.
[01:28:35.088]As I pointed out, because I've been involved
[01:28:36.759]with this process somewhat, it's important that
[01:28:40.173]we educate the educators because the message,
[01:28:43.842]one of the things we've learned in looking at,
[01:28:46.756]who do people out there believe?
[01:28:50.552]Extension educators rank very high on that list.
[01:28:54.465]So, they are a good source of information,
[01:28:56.508]we need to make sure that they are giving out the right,
[01:28:59.713]the correct information, the correct advice,
[01:29:02.135]and so all of that is part of what we need
[01:29:04.087]to work on within the extension system.
[01:29:06.037]So, I think that over the next couple years,
[01:29:08.720]you're going to see that activity develop very rapidly.
[01:29:11.506]But once again, as been pointed out earlier,
[01:29:14.653]this is a very interdisciplinary issue and so,
[01:29:18.048]we need to involve many scientists within
[01:29:20.869]the University of Nebraska, many within INR,
[01:29:23.969]but beyond INR, in this process.
[01:29:27.336]How people learn, how we should be
[01:29:29.913]disseminating information, how we should package
[01:29:32.340]that information in order to change
[01:29:35.419]human behavior, so.
[01:29:38.675]Any other comments?
[01:29:40.289]Well, in terms of adaptation
[01:29:41.798]of both plants and animals,
[01:29:45.675]probably not fast enough is the bottom line.
[01:29:49.751]And, if there is even adaptation space available
[01:29:52.960]to certain ecosystems.
[01:29:54.667]For example, if you're a little rodent living
[01:29:58.044]in the high Alpine environment
[01:30:00.340]and the climate warms up
[01:30:04.090]and you keep moving up the mountain,
[01:30:06.423]there's a top to that mountain and you can't go any higher.
[01:30:09.953]So, your ecosystem space disappears and so do you.
[01:30:14.492]And so, that's a highly problematic thing
[01:30:16.919]and, of course, while animals can move
[01:30:19.670]if they have a pathway to move through
[01:30:23.130]without getting run over on the interstate, or whatever.
[01:30:28.053]They can move, but plants, it takes long time
[01:30:31.385]for the, especially tree species and so forth,
[01:30:33.800]to move through a space.
[01:30:36.423]And, I'll just leave one final,
[01:30:38.664]more broader thought on that.
[01:30:40.719]The geologic record, of course, tells us that
[01:30:43.203]the Earth's climate has undergone large
[01:30:45.630]climate changes in the past, we're talking generally
[01:30:48.254]millions or tens of millions of years ago.
[01:30:51.133]We also know the geologic record tells us
[01:30:53.757]that the Earth has undergone mass extinctions
[01:30:56.671]where many, if not most, of the plant and animals
[01:30:59.841]species existing at that time went extinct.
[01:31:04.130]Guess what?
[01:31:05.009]The two coincide.
[01:31:06.461]The big climate changes that the Earth has undergone
[01:31:08.829]in the past are when the big mass extinctions
[01:31:11.209]have taken place.
[01:31:13.470]I might point you to the report,
[01:31:15.002]there are three commentaries focused on ecosystems.
[01:31:19.008]So, I would point you to those three commentaries
[01:31:22.593]and the perspectives of three ecosystem scientists
[01:31:26.168]on this particular issue.
[01:31:29.210]So, we have three things to do with you
[01:31:31.508]before you leave, so we beg your patience
[01:31:34.631]for just a few minutes.
[01:31:36.744]The first is I would like to ask anyone in the audience
[01:31:41.052]who was a contributor to the report,
[01:31:44.535]commentary writer, co-author, specialist
[01:31:48.703]that was drawn upon from the University.
[01:31:50.464]So, if you're in the audience and you were a contributor
[01:31:52.995]to the report, would you please stand?
[01:31:56.130]I know there's some here 'cause I saw them.
[01:31:58.382](applause)
[01:32:09.261]Secondly, we have a tradition in the Heuermann Lectures
[01:32:12.833]that we started four years ago, three years ago now,
[01:32:17.338]that each lecturer receive a memento from the University
[01:32:21.587]to remember their Heuermann Lecture.
[01:32:24.200]And, it's a commissioned medal that we provide
[01:32:27.578]that it has a very nice picture on it
[01:32:30.469]related to the tree of life, associated with
[01:32:33.302]what we do in agriculture and natural resources.
[01:32:36.495]So, we have medals for all four of our participants today
[01:32:41.417]to remember their time here as a Heuermann Lecturer.
[01:32:43.716]So, please join me in applauding
[01:32:45.585]Don, Clint, Bob, and Deb. (applause)
[01:32:53.126]The lectures are all archived and today's lecture
[01:32:56.969]will be available at 7pm tonight.
[01:33:00.174]There were groups that requested it
[01:33:02.542]who were having watch sessions tonight
[01:33:05.123]with the lecture, so it will be up on the web at 7pm
[01:33:09.589]this evening in its full length.
[01:33:12.887]I would draw your attention to the next lecture
[01:33:16.126]which will be on November the 6th.
[01:33:19.075]It will also be in this venue.
[01:33:22.256]It is same time, 3:30 in the afternoon.
[01:33:26.760]It will be a panel discussion lecture
[01:33:30.081]that deals with communicating about agriculture
[01:33:33.053]in the 21st century.
[01:33:34.783]It deals with some of the issues we talked about today,
[01:33:37.175]about science, and application of science,
[01:33:39.752]and controversies around some of those applications
[01:33:42.469]of science, related to agriculture.
[01:33:45.592]It will be moderated and led by Orion Samuelson.
[01:33:49.551]Mr. Samuelson is a longtime legend, radio broadcaster
[01:33:53.173]from Chicago, WGN, he's thought of as the voice
[01:33:55.797]of agriculture in the Midwestern United States.
[01:33:59.710]He will moderate the panel.
[01:34:01.881]It will include Barb Glenn, who previously was
[01:34:06.211]with Croplife America before that was with
[01:34:08.542]the bio organization in Washington.
[01:34:11.421]Just recently became the CEO for the
[01:34:13.627]National Association of State Directors of Agriculture
[01:34:16.553]in the U.S.
[01:34:18.584]It also will include Marcy Tessmann.
[01:34:21.255]Marcy is the President of Charleston Orwig.
[01:34:24.343]Which is one of the largest agricultural media organizations
[01:34:28.174]in the world, located in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
[01:34:31.715]Kevin Murphy, from a group called
[01:34:33.631]Food Chain Communications, Inc.
[01:34:36.336]That deals with the livestock sector, in particular,
[01:34:39.924]and a lot of issues around the livestock sector.
[01:34:43.047]And, I couldn't resist this one so I'm gonna sit
[01:34:45.299]on the panel as well, and prod them along the way.
[01:34:49.838]So, put that on your calendar, November the 6th,
[01:34:54.297]in this venue at 3:30 in the afternoon.
[01:34:57.756]In January, we will have Alison Van Eenennaam
[01:35:00.253]from the University of California Davis,
[01:35:02.551]coming to give the lecture on animal biotechnology,
[01:35:06.673]all of the issues around animal biotechnology.
[01:35:10.585]Alison will receive the Council of Ag Science and
[01:35:12.794]Technology's National Communications Award
[01:35:16.126]in about two weeks in association with
[01:35:19.377]the World Food Prize in Des Moines,
[01:35:21.966]and I can assure you, she is a compelling and
[01:35:24.253]exciting speaker that we're looking forward
[01:35:26.134]to having here in early January.
[01:35:28.549]So, welcome you to those lectures in the future.
[01:35:31.958]Please join me again in thanking the panel.
[01:35:34.887]Remember copies are available on your way out. (applause)
[01:35:39.330](instrumental music)

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Heuermann Lecture: Understanding and Assessing Climate Change: Implications for Nebraska

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