“Washington and the World in the Age of Obama” - Susan Glasser
Description
Susan Glasser is the new Editor of POLITICO magazine. Previously she was editor-in-chief of Foreign Policy, the magazine of global politics, economics and ideas. During her tenure at its helm, the magazine won numerous awards for its innovative coverage, including three digital National Magazine Awards. Previously, Glasser covered the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan as a foreign correspondent and editor at the Washington Post. She was also editor of Roll Call, the newspaper of Capitol Hill, and with her husband Peter Baker, co-authored the book “Kremlin Rising: Vladimir Putin’s Russia and the End of Revolution.” She is a graduate of Harvard University.
Searchable Transcript
- [00:00:00.333]♪ MUSIC ♪
- [00:00:32.000](Applause)
- [00:00:39.000]>>>GOOD EVENING. I AM PROFESSOR LLOYD AMBROSIUS.
- [00:00:43.000]IT IS MY PRIVILEGE AS CHAIR OF THE PROGRAM COMMITTEE TO
- [00:00:44.967]WELCOME YOU TO THE E.N. THOMPSON FORUM ON WORLD ISSUES.
- [00:00:53.000]FOUNDED BY E.N. JACK THOMPSON AND NAMED IN HIS HONOR IT IS
- [00:00:58.133]DESIGNED TO ENGAGE THE UNIVERSITY OF NEBRASKA COMMUNITY
- [00:01:00.834]AND GENERAL PUBLIC IN IMPORTANT ISSUES AFFECTING ALL OF US IN
- [00:01:08.433]THE CONTEMPORARY WORLD.
- [00:01:10.667]WE'RE GRATEFUL TO THE THOMPSON FAMILY AND COOPER FOUNDATION FOR
- [00:01:16.133]GENEROUS SUPPORT FOR THIS LECTURE SERIES.
- [00:01:19.266]WE ALSO THANK THE NEBRASKA TELECOMMUNICATIONS,
- [00:01:25.734]CABLE TV, CHANNEL 21, KRNU RADIO AND UNIVERSITY BOOKSTORE FOR
- [00:01:33.867]THEIR SUPPORT.
- [00:01:36.400]THIS EVENING'S LECTURE, WASHINGTON AND THE WORLD IN THE
- [00:01:40.133]AGE OF OBAMA, IS BY SUSAN GLASSER, THE NEW EDITOR OF
- [00:01:46.500]POLITICO MAGAZINE.
- [00:01:48.934]PREVIOUSLY SHE WAS EDITOR IN CHIEF OF FOREIGN POLICY OF THE
- [00:01:53.367]MAGAZINE OF GLOBAL POLITICS, ECONOMICS AND IDEAS.
- [00:01:56.967]DURING HER TENURE AT THE HELM, FOREIGN POLICY WON NUMEROUS
- [00:02:01.667]AWARDS FOR INNOVATIVE COVERAGE INCLUDING THREE DIGITAL NATIONAL
- [00:02:06.800]MAGAZINE AWARDS.
- [00:02:09.166]BEFORE BECOMING ITS EDITOR, GLASSER COVERED THE WARS IN IRAQ
- [00:02:13.934]AND AFGHANISTAN AS A FOREIGN CORRESPONDENT AND EDITOR AT THE
- [00:02:18.900]WASHINGTON POST.
- [00:02:23.367]SHE WAS ALSO EDITOR OF ROLL CALL, THE NEWSPAPER OF CAPITOL
- [00:02:26.867]HILL.
- [00:02:27.200]WITH HER HUSBAND, PETER BAKER, SHE CO-AUTHORED THE BOOK,
- [00:02:32.900]"KREMLIN RISING, VLADIMIR PUTIN'S RUSSIA AND THE END OF
- [00:02:36.700]REVOLUTION" A HARVARD UNIVERSITY GRADUATE.
- [00:02:42.066]AFTER THE LECTURE, YOU WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO ASK QUESTIONS
- [00:02:44.867]OF OUR SPEAKER BY WRITING THEM ON CARDS MADE AVAILABLE TO YOU
- [00:02:49.400]BY THE USHERS.
- [00:02:51.500]NOW, JOIN ME IN WELCOMING SUSAN GLASSER TO NEBRASKA.
- [00:02:57.700][ APPLAUSE ] >>> THANK YOU VERY MUCH,
- [00:03:12.233]PROFESSOR, THANK YOU TO ALL OF YOU WHO COME OUT HERE THIS
- [00:03:15.066]EVENING.
- [00:03:15.567]I'M INCREDIBLY GRATEFUL FOR THE INVITATION, NOT ONLY TO COME
- [00:03:19.533]HERE TO NEBRASKA FOR THE FIRST TIME, BUT IN PARTICULAR, TO
- [00:03:23.467]ADDRESS THE THOMPSON FORUM WHICH HAS A DISTINGUISHED I THINK AND
- [00:03:27.734]WELL-DESERVED HISTORY OF ATTRACTING REALLY FIRST-RATE
- [00:03:32.667]THINKERS AND LEADERS IN THE WORLD OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS,
- [00:03:36.533]I'M HONORED TO BE PART OF THAT TRADITION AND SO, I'M GOING TO
- [00:03:41.467]SKIP MY OBLIGATORY ABOUT THE COMMENTS OF BIG RED FOOTBALL AND
- [00:03:47.600]SKIP RIGHT TO THE MORE SOMBER SUBJECT OF WORLD AFFAIRS IN THE
- [00:03:52.333]AGE OF OBAMA AND FOR THAT I THANK YOU IN ADVANCE.
- [00:03:56.567]I'M LOOKING FORWARD TO ALL OF YOUR QUESTIONS AND TO HAVING A
- [00:04:01.934]CONVERSATION AROUND THESE SUBJECTS AS WELL.
- [00:04:03.667]I THOUGHT GIVEN THE SUBJECT, IT MIGHT BE GOOD TO START WITH A
- [00:04:06.800]LITTLE BIT OF A CAUTIONARY TALE.
- [00:04:09.934]EXACTLY TWO YEARS AGO, MORE OR LESS, I GOT A PHONE CALL
- [00:04:13.166]IN MY OFFICE AT FOREIGN POLICY, FROM CURT CAMPBELL, AT THE TIME
- [00:04:17.867]THE TOP U.S. DIPLOMAT FOR EAST ASIA AND A CLOSE ADVISOR TO
- [00:04:22.767]HILLARY CLINTON.
- [00:04:23.900]I GOT SOMETHING REALLY BIG FOR YOU, CURT CAMPBELL SAID, I HOPE
- [00:04:27.133]YOU DON'T MIND BUT I'VE TAKEN THE LIBERTY OF TELLING SECRETARY
- [00:04:31.100]CLINTON THAT YOU'LL PUBLISH IT.
- [00:04:33.767]WELL, OF COURSE I WAS A LITTLE BIT WORRIED, TRUTH FULLY.
- [00:04:37.500]THE JOURNALIST AND EDITOR WONDERED WHAT EXACTLY WAS IT HE
- [00:04:41.400]PROMISED, WHAT IT IF IT WAS A BORING OP-ED OR TEDIOUS ACCOUNT
- [00:04:46.734]OF THE SEA TREATY, NO, NO, HE INSISTED THIS IS BIG, REALLY.
- [00:04:51.467]IT TURNED OUT THAT HILLARY CLINTON AND PRESIDENT OBAMA
- [00:04:55.300]WOULD BE ANNOUNCING A MAJOR QUOTE UNQUOTE PIVOT TO ASIA IN
- [00:05:00.967]AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY AND THIS WILL BE THE ARTICLE CURT
- [00:05:04.834]SAID IN WHICH WE LAYOUT THE SHIFT.
- [00:05:11.300]I SAID YES, MANY THOUSANDS OF WORDS AND PAINSTAKING DRAFTS
- [00:05:20.100]LATER, IT WAS BIG NEWS.
- [00:05:21.266]THE FUTURE OF POLITICS, SHE WROTE, IN THE MAGAZINE, IS IN
- [00:05:24.967]ASIA.
- [00:05:25.300]AND RATHER THAN RETURNING HOME AFTER THE WARS IN IRAQ AND
- [00:05:29.433]AFGHANISTAN, THE UNITED STATES WOULD NEED TO SHIFT ITS GAZE
- [00:05:32.367]THERE, TO ASIA QUOTE UNQUOTE TO PIVOT TO NEW GLOBAL REALITIES
- [00:05:45.200]THIS KIND OF PIVOT, SECRETARY OF STATE CLINTON WROTE IS NOT EASY
- [00:05:49.233]WE HAVE PAVED THE WAY OVER THE PAST TWO-AND-A-HALF YEARS AND
- [00:05:52.700]COMMITTED TO SEEING IT THROUGH AS AMONG THE MOST IMPORTANT
- [00:05:56.233]DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS OF OUR TIME.
- [00:05:58.734]FLASH FORWARD TWO YEARS.
- [00:06:00.667]THERE IS JUST ONE PROBLEM.
- [00:06:02.200]THE PIVOT TO ASIA, DOESN'T EXIST.
- [00:06:06.133]WHEN BARACK OBAMA TRAVELED TO THE UNITED NATIONS A COUPLE
- [00:06:11.533]WEEKS AGO TO OUTLINE HIS VISION, ASIA WITH THE BILLIONS OF
- [00:06:15.667]PEOPLE, FAST-GROWING ECONOMY, MANY SECURITY CHALLENGES,
- [00:06:19.433]WARRANTED JUST A SINGLE SENTENCE.
- [00:06:21.667]THAT'S RIGHT.
- [00:06:22.533]ONE SENTENCE.
- [00:06:24.266]THIS WEEK, PRESIDENT OBAMA WAS SUPPOSED TO BE IN ASIA, HOLDING
- [00:06:29.066]THE APEC SUMMIT, TRAVELING TO MALAYSIA, PHILIPPINES AND
- [00:06:35.467]INDONESIA.
- [00:06:35.967]INSTEAD THE MESSY REALITIES OF AMERICAN POLITICS OF A
- [00:06:38.900]GOVERNMENT SHUT DOWN, AND THE PROSPECT OF AN EVEN MORE
- [00:06:42.800]ECONOMICALLY DISASTROUS DEBT LIMIT VOTES FORKED HIM TO CANCEL
- [00:06:46.467]THE TRIP.
- [00:06:47.800]FORCED HIM.
- [00:06:48.934]INSTEAD WHO SHOWED UP?
- [00:06:51.900]VLADIMIR PUTIN, CHINA'S NEW LEADER, THE HEADLINES WERE
- [00:06:58.000]PREDICTABLE AND DAMAGING, AS YOU COULD IMAGINE.
- [00:07:00.367]IF GLOBAL POLITICS ARE TREATED AS A ZERO SOME GAME, CHINA WAS
- [00:07:04.633]THE WINNER AND UNITED STATES WAS THE LOSER.
- [00:07:08.600]AS PRESIDENT OBAMA SAID IN HIS PRESS CONFERENCE EARLIER THIS
- [00:07:12.300]AFTERNOON, THE WHOLE WORLD IS WATCHING THIS ONE.
- [00:07:16.300]MEANWHILE, ASIDE FROM CONGRESSIONAL GRIDLOCK, THAT IS
- [00:07:20.000]OBAMA'S FOREIGN POLICY COULDN'T BE FARTHER AWAY FROM ASIA, AND
- [00:07:24.333]THE PIVOT HE INVOKED TWO YEARS AGO, HOW CAN WE BEST SUM UP
- [00:07:28.734]AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY TODAY?
- [00:07:30.266]AS HAS SO OFTEN HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE LAST DECADE, THE
- [00:07:33.400]MIDDLE EAST, THE MIDDLE EAST AND THE MIDDLE EAST.
- [00:07:38.333]SO, THAT IS WHY I'M CALLING THIS A CAUTIONARY TALE.
- [00:07:40.967]MY ADVICE TO ALL THOSE IN THE AUDIENCE IS VERY SIMPLE.
- [00:07:45.633]BEWARE PUNDITS OR SECRETARIES OF STATE BEARING GRAND, SWEEPING
- [00:07:49.700]POLICY PRONOUNCEMENTS, ESPECIALLY WHEN IT COMES TO
- [00:07:53.133]AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY.
- [00:07:54.533]NEXT TIME YOU READ ABOUT THE OBAMA DOCTRINE FOR THE UNITED
- [00:07:57.967]STATES IN THE WORLD, THINK AGAIN BEFORE ACCEPTING IT AS REALITY.
- [00:08:02.500]IN HIS FIVE YEARS IN OFFICE, THERE HAVE BEEN MANY, MANY SUCH
- [00:08:07.033]OBAMA DOCTRINES PROCLAIMED.
- [00:08:09.367]THEY ARE INVARIABLY WRONG AND CONTRADICTORY.
- [00:08:14.000]HE'S AGAINST THE USE OF FORCE EXCEPT WHEN HE IS.
- [00:08:16.967]HE'S FOR MULTI-LATERALISM, EXCEPT WHEN HE ISN'T.
- [00:08:20.567]HE'S A REALIST, WITH AN IDEALIST STREAK.
- [00:08:23.800]A NON-INTERVENTIONIST.
- [00:08:26.066]GOOGLE THE PHRASE "OBAMA DOCTRINE" AND GUESS WHAT?
- [00:08:29.834]YOU'LL HAVE 23 MILLION OR SO HITS.
- [00:08:31.967]VERY FEW OF THEM ARE COMPATIBLE.
- [00:08:34.933]EVEN THE PRESIDENT'S OWN DESCRIPTION OF HIS DOCTRINE CAN
- [00:08:39.400]VARY WILDLY, NOT JUST ON A QUESTION OF WHETHER WE'RE
- [00:08:42.400]PIVOTING TO ASIA OR NOT.
- [00:08:43.866]PERHAPS IN A WAY, WE SHOULD BE THANKFUL WE HAVE NOT HEARD MORE.
- [00:08:48.333]IT WOULD BE JUST WRONG OR MISLEADING OR BOTH.
- [00:08:51.934]THINK ABOUT BACK IN 2008 WHEN OBAMA FIRST ARRIVED ON THE
- [00:08:55.834]SCENE.
- [00:08:56.233]WHEN HE PLEDGED TO STOP THE RISE OF THE SEAS, AND NUCLEAR
- [00:09:00.734]WEAPONS, REINVENT AMERICAN DIPLOMACY BY TALKING TO
- [00:09:04.033]AMERICA'S ENEMIES AND NOT JUST THE FRIENDS.
- [00:09:06.867]ALL WHILE ENDING THE IRAQ WAR, SHOWING HOW TO DO THE WAR IN
- [00:09:10.900]AFGHANISTAN RIGHT, EMBRACING MULTI-LATERAL INSTITUTIONS AND
- [00:09:14.934]TRANSFORMING OUR ECONOMY.
- [00:09:16.467]EVEN WITH RECENT DEVELOPMENTS, HE'S NOT EXACTLY GOING TO BE
- [00:09:19.800]BATTING 1000 THERE.
- [00:09:22.033]PERHAPS OBAMA HAS JUST LEARNED TO AVOID GRAND PLANS AND BIG
- [00:09:25.767]VISIONS, SWEEPING RHETORIC AND HEIGHTENED EXPECTATIONS THAT
- [00:09:29.100]COME ALONG WITH IT.
- [00:09:30.433]AFTER ALL, IN THE CAMPAIGN HE WAGED LAST YEAR FOR REELECTION,
- [00:09:34.433]YOU COULD BE FORGIVEN IF YOU MISSED THE PART OF THE CAMPAIGN
- [00:09:37.033]WHERE HE OUTLINED THE FOREIGN POLICY AGENDA FOR THE SECOND
- [00:09:40.900]TERM.
- [00:09:41.266]IT WASN'T THERE.
- [00:09:41.934]UNLESS KILLING OSAMA BIN LADEN COUNTS AS A PROGRAM.
- [00:09:46.233]A FEW DECADES AGO BRITISH PRIME MINISTER HAROLD McMILLAN WAS
- [00:09:50.600]ASKED ABOUT HIS FOREIGN POLICY PROGRAM.
- [00:09:52.967]EVENTS, MY DEAR FELLOW, HE REPORTEDLY SAID, EVENTS.
- [00:09:57.166]WELL, OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS, A FAIRLY DRAMATIC SET OF EVENTS
- [00:10:00.900]HAS OCCURRED, AND THEY DO IN FACT SUGGEST THAT OBAMA IS IN
- [00:10:03.934]THE MIDST OF WHAT COULD END UP BEING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
- [00:10:07.400]PERIOD OF DIPLOMACY IN HIS PRESIDENCY.
- [00:10:11.300]JUST TWO MONTHS AGO, NONE OF IT SEEMED REMOTELY POSSIBLE.
- [00:10:14.867]ON SYRIA, ON IRAN, ON MIDDLE EAST PEACE TALKS, IN OUR
- [00:10:19.500]DEALINGS WITH RUSSIA, THE SAME OLD GRIDLOCK SEEMED TO PREVAIL.
- [00:10:23.367]WE WERE HAVING THE SAME CONVERSATIONS ABOUT NEGOTIATIONS
- [00:10:26.500]THAT HADN'T HAPPENED ABOUT DEALS THAT WEREN'T COMING FORWARD.
- [00:10:30.500]AND YET, THESE TIRED CONVERSATIONS HAVE QUICKLY GIVEN
- [00:10:34.367]WAY TO NEW REALITIES.
- [00:10:36.567]EVENTS AS THEY SAY, HAVE INTERVENED.
- [00:10:39.667]TODAY HE'S HAD THE FIRST DIRECT PHONE CALL BETWEEN A UNITED
- [00:10:43.500]STATES LEADER AND IRANIAN LEADER SINCE THE 1979 REVOLUTION.
- [00:10:48.333]NUCLEAR TALKS WILL RESUME NEXT WEEK.
- [00:10:50.600]ON SYRIA, HE'S WORKING WITH INTERNATIONAL PARTNERS TO
- [00:10:54.033]DESTROY THE ASSAD REGIME'S CHEMICAL WEAPONS AND ON A PEACE
- [00:10:57.467]CONFERENCE IN GENEVA WITH THE RUSSIANS, THE SAME RUSSIANS
- [00:11:02.200]OBAMA WAS ON BAD TERMS WITH A MONTH BEFORE THAT, HE
- [00:11:05.834]DECLINED TO EVEN TO MEET WITH VLADIMIR PUTIN ON A TRIP THERE.
- [00:11:09.767]SO, WHILE THERE MAY BE NO OVER-ARCHING OBAMA DOCTRINE, I
- [00:11:14.133]THINK IT IS FAIR TO SAY WE DO HAVE SOME WAYS OF NAVIGATING
- [00:11:19.133]THIS CURRENT SET OF EVENTS.
- [00:11:20.700]BUT REMEMBER THIS.
- [00:11:22.033]THE KEY EVENTS ARE TAKING PLACE RIGHT NOW IN WASHINGTON, THAT
- [00:11:26.300]WILL INFLUENCE THE OUTCOME OF THIS DIPLOMATIC OPENING.
- [00:11:29.567]THE MESS BACK IN WASHINGTON MAKES THESE TALKS WITH
- [00:11:33.166]INTERNATIONAL PLAYERS LIKE IRAN AND SYRIA MORE IMPORTANT, NOT
- [00:11:37.333]LESS.
- [00:11:37.633]ALTHOUGH THEY MAY HURT PRESIDENT OBAMA'S NEGOTIATING POSITION AND
- [00:11:41.233]MORE ON THAT LATER.
- [00:11:42.700]BUT WHY DOES IT MATTER EVEN MORE THAN EVER?
- [00:11:46.033]LOOK AT THE CALENDAR, LOOK AT THE POLITICS.
- [00:11:48.800]BOTH OF THEM INTERSECT TO SUGGEST FOREIGN POLICY IS ALL
- [00:11:55.066]THAT IS LEFT OF THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION.
- [00:11:57.533]THANKS TO CONGRESS, THERE CERTAINLY IS NO DOMESTIC AGENDA,
- [00:12:06.066]WITH THE CLOCK TICKING AND EVERY DAY MAKING HIM CLOSER TO A LAME
- [00:12:09.500]DUCK THE PRESIDENT IS THINKING LEGACY.
- [00:12:12.100]HE'S SEARCHING FOR A LEGACY,THEY LOOK OVERSEAS.
- [00:12:19.066]THAT IS WHY THEY SPEND THEIR SECOND TERMS TALKING ABOUT
- [00:12:23.166]MIDDLE EAST PEACE.
- [00:12:24.300]EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEM.
- [00:12:25.533]OBAMA WILL TOO, YOU HEARD IT HERE FIRST.
- [00:12:27.467]WHILE THERE MAY BE NO OVER-ARCHING OBAMA DOCTRINE I
- [00:12:31.033]THINK IT IS IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND WHAT WE DO KNOW ABOUT THE
- [00:12:34.667]PRESIDENT.
- [00:12:35.100]WE KNOW THIS FOR SURE, HE MEANT IT WHEN HE SAID HE PLANNED TO
- [00:12:38.600]WITHDRAW FROM AFGHANISTAN BY 2014.
- [00:12:41.734]HE MEANT IT WHEN HE SAID HE WANTED TO REDUCE THE DEFENSE
- [00:12:45.333]BUDGET AND AS HE PUT IT, NATION-BUILD HERE AT HOME.
- [00:12:49.066]WE ALSO KNOW MORE ABOUT OBAMA AND HIS DECISION-MAKING STYLE,
- [00:12:53.000]HIS HANDLING OF CRISES THAN WHEN HE DID WHEN HE CAME TO OFFICE A
- [00:12:57.433]FEW YEARS AGO.
- [00:12:58.433]WE KNOW HE'S CAUTIOUS BUT OCCASIONALLY WILLING TO BE BOLD.
- [00:13:02.000]THAT HE'S NO CRUSADING DEMOCRACY ACTIVIST, BUT ALSO VERY FAR FROM
- [00:13:06.934]A STAY AT HOME ISOLATIONIST.
- [00:13:09.100]THAT HE MEANS IT WHEN HE SAYS HE WANTS TO PURSUE A PRAGMATIC
- [00:13:19.300]FOREIGN POLICY SHAPED BY NATIONAL CAPABILITIES.
- [00:13:22.166]HE'S NOT THE AMERICAN DECLINIST OF THE REPUBLICAN CAMPAIGN
- [00:13:30.066]CARICATURE BUT HE'S PREPARING AMERICA FOR A MOMENT WHEN IT MAY
- [00:13:33.200]BE A SUPER POWER THAT PICKS FIGHTS MORE CAREFULLY.
- [00:13:42.000]OBAMA'S NATION-BUILDING HERE AT HOME SLOGAN NOT ONLY RESONATES
- [00:13:45.767]WITH DEMOCRATS, IT IS POPULAR ACROSS THE POLITICAL SPECTRUM
- [00:13:50.467]AND AS REPUBLICANS HAVE AN INTERNAL WAR WITH THEMSELVES,
- [00:13:53.333]OVER THE FUTURE DIRECTION OF THEIR PARTY, THERE IS A VERY
- [00:13:56.333]REAL CLASH ON THIS POINT.
- [00:13:58.300]BETWEEN THE REMAINING NEO-HAWKS AND INTERNATIONALISTS,
- [00:14:03.500]CONSERVATIVES, AND THE RISING RAND PAUL ISOLATIONIST WING OF
- [00:14:07.834]THE PARTY DETERMINED TO AVOID MORE MESSY ENTANGLEMENTS AT
- [00:14:11.633]HOME.
- [00:14:11.967]PART OF WHAT IS DRIVING THE CURRENT CONFRONTATION IN
- [00:14:15.033]CONGRESS TODAY AND I THINK YOU WILL HEAR MORE OF IT.
- [00:14:18.467]THERE IS AN ENORMOUS OVERWHELMING POLITICAL LOGIC AS
- [00:14:22.300]WELL FOR THE DIPLOMATIC MOMENT THAT PRESIDENT OBAMA IS HAVING.
- [00:14:26.667]THIS IS NOT A TIME FOR SABRE RATTLING, YOU WILL HEAR MORE
- [00:14:31.233]ABOUT THIS.
- [00:14:32.367]NOW OF COURSE, CLEARLY IT RANKLES PRESIDENT OBAMA WHEN
- [00:14:38.800]HE'S ACCUSED OF MAKING FOREIGN POLICY BY INBOX, TO WHICH I
- [00:14:43.200]WOULD SAY, THAT IS SILLY OF COURSE HE'S LETTING EVENTS
- [00:14:46.900]DECIDE THINGS, OF COURSE HE'S RUNNING BY INBOX.
- [00:14:51.133]PRESIDENT OBAMA CRITICIZED THE WASHINGTON FOREIGN POLICY
- [00:14:54.166]ESTABLISHMENT RECENTLY FOR DINGING HIM ON STYLE POINTS.
- [00:14:59.166]IN HIS RECENT SOMEWHAT EMBARRASSING FLIP-FLOP OVER WHAT
- [00:15:02.600]TO DO ABOUT SYRIA, REMEMBER WHEN HE WAS FOR MILITARY ACTION IN
- [00:15:10.700]SYRIA, THEN GOING TO CONGRESS, THEN NEGOTIATING.
- [00:15:13.633]LET'S BE REAL IT WAS EMBARRASSING, STYLE POINTS DO
- [00:15:16.200]COUNT FOR A LOT IN THE OFTEN AMORPHOUS WORLD OF FOREIGN
- [00:15:24.667]POLICY.
- [00:15:25.100]HE'S VERY LUCKY.
- [00:15:27.066]THE TRUTH IS IN A CHOICE BETWEEN THE INBOX AND THE SOAPBOX, IF
- [00:15:32.000]YOU WANT TO KNOW WHAT PRESIDENT OBAMA IS GOING TO CONCENTRATE
- [00:15:34.734]ON, IT IS BEST TO LOOK TO THE INBOX.
- [00:15:37.500]THAT IS THE STUFF THAT JUST WON'T SLIP.
- [00:15:39.667]AND HOW DOES THE INBOX LOOK RIGHT NOW?
- [00:15:42.033]IT LOOKS PRETTY CROWDED.
- [00:15:44.367]SYRIA IS JUST AT THE TOP OF THAT VERY CROWDED PORTFOLIO.
- [00:15:49.233]REMEMBER, THIS IS FAR FROM RESOLVED, EVEN IF OBAMA DID HAVE
- [00:15:52.233]A LUCKY HAND EXTENDED TO HIM BY THE RUSSIANS GETTING HIM OUT OF
- [00:15:56.367]THE BIND OF HAVING TO GO TO CONGRESS TO APPROVE A MILITARY
- [00:16:00.266]ACTION THAT CONGRESS PRETTY CLEARLY WASN'T GOING TO APPROVE
- [00:16:04.200]OF.
- [00:16:04.633]JUST BECAUSE THAT TEMPORARY CRISIS WAS AVERTED DOES NOT MEAN
- [00:16:08.400]WE HAVE A SOLUTION TO SYRIA.
- [00:16:11.033]MORE WAR IS A LIKELY OUTCOME THERE, AND EVEN IF THE TALKS IN
- [00:16:15.934]GENEVA SPONSORED BY THE RUSSIANS AND UNITED STATES, THEY
- [00:16:22.867]TO LEAD TO A RESOLUTION OF A BLOODY CIVIL WAR THAT SEEMS TO
- [00:16:25.834]BE ESCALATING AND RATHER DECLINING.
- [00:16:28.500]THE ISSUE OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS HAS BEEN SEGREGATE SOD FAR FROM
- [00:16:31.600]THE BROADER QUESTION OF A COUNTRY RIGHT AT THE HEART OF
- [00:16:34.233]THE MIDDLE EAST, THAT IS MELTING DOWN.
- [00:16:36.600]WHERE MORE THAN 100,000 PEOPLE ARE DEAD OVER THE LAST TWO
- [00:16:39.633]YEARS, AND THE UNITED STATES RATHER THAN HAVING MORE CHARITY
- [00:16:43.233]MORE CONFUSED AS IT IS THERE ARE A LACK OF RELIABLE
- [00:16:50.834]PARTNERS FOR THE UNITED STATES, AMONG THE REBEL GROUPS AND IN
- [00:16:53.800]FACT THE STRONGEST REBEL FACTIONS THAT HAVE EMERGED TEND
- [00:16:57.233]TO BE THOSE THAT ARE THE MOST ALLIED WITH RADICAL JIHADIST
- [00:17:03.633]ELEMENTS.
- [00:17:04.300]THEREFORE, I THINK OUR POLICY IN MANY WAYS IS AS CONFUSED AS IT
- [00:17:07.900]EVER HAS BEEN, EVEN SIX MONTHS AGO.
- [00:17:10.266]WHAT IS NEXT ON THE INBOX?
- [00:17:12.666]IRAN.
- [00:17:13.333]ANOTHER DIPLOMATIC MOMENT IN THE MAKING THERE.
- [00:17:15.666]AS I MENTIONED, IT WAS JUST THE OTHER DAY PRESIDENT OBAMA HAD
- [00:17:19.532]HIS HISTORIC PHONE CALL WITH IRANIAN PRESIDENT ROUHANI.
- [00:17:24.500]THERE IS A LOT OF QUESTION MARKS THAT REMAIN AS WELL.
- [00:17:27.066]NEXT WEEK NUCLEAR TALKS WILL RESUME BETWEEN THE TWO
- [00:17:30.166]COUNTRIES.
- [00:17:30.900]THEY REMAIN PRETTY MUCH GRIDLOCKED IN A PLACE THEY WERE
- [00:17:33.934]BEFORE THIS HISTORIC PHONE CALL.
- [00:17:36.200]I THINK THERE ARE REAL QUESTIONS ON BOTH SIDES AS WELL ABOUT THE
- [00:17:40.500]NEGOTIATING POWER THAT OBAMA AND ROUHANI BRING TO THE TABLE.
- [00:17:44.000]MANY AMERICANS ARE ASKING IS ROUHANI A CREDIBLE NEGOTIATOR
- [00:17:48.567]AND PARTNER FOR THE UNITED STATES?
- [00:17:50.567]OR DOES TRUE POWER INSIDE IRAN AND THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC REMAIN
- [00:17:56.567]WITH THE SUPREME LEADER, IS HE WILLING TO CONSIDER THIS NEW
- [00:18:00.367]OPENING TO THE UNITED STATES?
- [00:18:02.533]FOR THEIR PART, THE IRANIANS ARE LOOKING WITH A VERY SKEPTICAL
- [00:18:07.166]EYE AT WHAT IS OCCURRING BACK IN WASHINGTON, WHERE I COME FROM.
- [00:18:11.700]AND WONDERING WHAT KIND OF A PARTNER IS BARACK OBAMA FOR US
- [00:18:16.100]IN THESE NEGOTIATIONS, IF HE CAN'T NEGOTIATE WITH CONGRESS
- [00:18:20.700]OVER THE BASIC FUNCTIONING OF THE AMERICAN GOVERNMENT, THAT IS
- [00:18:23.567]THE ACTUAL FUNCTIONING OF THE AMERICAN GOVERNMENT, CAN WE
- [00:18:27.367]TRUST BARACK OBAMA TO DELIVER ON ANY DEAL HE MAKES WITH US?
- [00:18:31.967]REMEMBER, ANY AGREEMENT WE WERE TO COME TO WITH THE IRANIANS
- [00:18:35.333]WOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY INVOLVE CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL TO LIFT
- [00:18:39.133]OR CHANGE THE SANCTIONS THAT HAVE BEEN PUT IN PLACE BY
- [00:18:42.767]CONGRESS ON THE IRANIAN ECONOMY.
- [00:18:44.800]AND SO, UNLESS OBAMA CAN DELIVER CONGRESS I THINK THE IRANIANS
- [00:18:51.300]ARE GOING IN THE NEGOTIATIONS WONDERING IF NOW IS THE RIGHT
- [00:18:54.767]TIME FOR THIS KIND OF DIPLOMATIC OPENING OR NOT.
- [00:18:58.266]WHAT ELSE IS IN THE INBOX?
- [00:19:01.734]TO TICK OFF A FEW THINGS, MOST OF THEM DON'T INVOLVE THE PIVOT
- [00:19:04.600]TO ASIA.
- [00:19:05.533]THE MIDDLE EAST PEACE TALKS, WHERE OBAMA AND SECRETARY KERRY
- [00:19:09.700]HAVE PLEDGED TO MAKE A MAJOR EFFORT.
- [00:19:12.767]AGAIN LOOKING TOWARD HIS LEGACY, HE WOULD DEARLY, DEARLY LOVE TO
- [00:19:18.133]BE THE DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENT WHO WAS ABLE TO DO WHAT ALL AMERICAN
- [00:19:21.500]PRESIDENTS HAVE TALKED ABOUT SINCE RICHARD NIXON AND JIMMY
- [00:19:24.567]CARTER BUT HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO DO WHICH IS TO FORGE
- [00:19:27.300]A MORE DURABLE PIECE, AE RESOLUTION AS OPPOSED TO THE
- [00:19:34.233]INTERIM TALKS AND INEVITABLE DELAYS AND BACK AND FORTH THAT
- [00:19:38.600]HAVE MIRED THE PEACE PROCESS AND NOT A LOT OF PEACE AND FRANKLY
- [00:19:42.667]NOT A LOT OF PROCESS OVER THE LAST FEW YEARS.
- [00:19:46.567]THEN THE ONGOING WAR ON TERROR, AND DRAMATIC RETURN I THINK TO
- [00:19:50.734]THE FRONT PAGE, WITH THE HORRIBLE ATTACK IN KENYA.
- [00:19:57.066]THE SPECIAL FORCES RAIDS LAUNCHED BY PRESIDENT OBAMA OVER
- [00:20:00.133]THE WEEKEND AND EXPANDING OBAMA DRONE WAR IN YEMEN AND FROM NEW
- [00:20:04.600]BASES ACROSS AFRICA.
- [00:20:06.000]YOU MIGHT HAVE THOUGHT THAT THE WAR ON TERROR WAS OVER, BUT IN
- [00:20:09.867]MANY WAYS, THE RESURGENCE AND PERSISTENT OF AL QAEDA AND NEW
- [00:20:15.266]GUISES AND FRANCHISES AND PLACES SUGGESTS IT IS MORPHING AND
- [00:20:20.934]MUTATING RATHER THAN ENDING A CONFLICT IN WHICH THE UNITED
- [00:20:23.400]STATES WILL BE INVOLVED FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
- [00:20:26.133]OR LOOK AT THE HEADLINES TODAY, AS I WALKED IN THE NEWS CAME
- [00:20:29.533]THAT THE UNITED STATES WAS NOW FINALLY CONSIDERING CUTTING OFF
- [00:20:33.433]OUR AID TO EGYPT, SOMETHING WE HAVE RESISTED DOING AS
- [00:20:40.800]DISINTEGRATION AND POLITICS HAVE GOTTEN WORSE AND WORSE OVER THE
- [00:20:43.400]LAST FEW MONTHS.
- [00:20:45.033]REMEMBER THE COUP WE DIDN'T CALL A COUP?
- [00:20:54.800]THE HOPE IN EGYPT, THE REMOVAL OF MUBARAK LED TO TURMOIL,
- [00:21:03.200]VIOLENCE AND GRIDLOCK IN THE COUNTRY.
- [00:21:05.266]RETURN OF MILITARY RULE, CONFLICT WITH THE NOW IMPRISONED
- [00:21:08.767]ONCE AGAIN LEADERS OF THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD, AND SO I THINK THIS
- [00:21:12.266]IS SOMETHING THAT WHETHER IT IS ON THE FRONT PAIN YESTERDAY, IT
- [00:21:16.100]WILL BE ON THE FRONT PAGE OF THE PAPER TOMORROW AND FOR MANY DAYS
- [00:21:20.100]AFTER THAT.
- [00:21:21.467]THESE ARE JUST FRONT PAGE
- [00:21:32.333]CRISES.
- [00:21:32.734]THERE ARE OTHERS THAT SOON WILL.
- [00:21:34.867]THE KNOWN UNKNOWNS AS DONALD RUMSFELD SO MEMORABLY PUT IT.
- [00:21:40.000]THINK ABOUT I MENTIONED THE RETURN OF AL QAEDA TO FRONT AND
- [00:21:43.233]CENTER, THINK ABOUT THE SPREAD OF AL QAEDA IN REGIONS THAT
- [00:21:46.533]DON'T GET A LOT OF ATTENTION IN THE UNITED STATES.
- [00:21:51.867]PARTS OF AFRICA.
- [00:21:53.400]THE PROSPECT OF FURTHER STATE COLLAPSE IN THE MIDDLE EAST,
- [00:21:57.233]UNSTABLE REGIMES, INCLUDE JORDAN.
- [00:22:01.000]ALLY SAUDI ARABIA, AT ANY MOMENT COULD BE ON THE BRINK OF ANOTHER
- [00:22:06.500]TRANSITION.
- [00:22:07.066]YEMEN IS TEETERING.
- [00:22:13.200]CONSTITUTIONAL BATTLES COULD TURN DEADLY EVEN IN PERCEIVED
- [00:22:16.500]SUCCESS STORIES OF THE ARAB SPRING, LIKE TUNISIA.
- [00:22:21.400]IRAQ, THE DEADLIEST IT HAS BEEN SINCE THE UNITED STATES EXIT.
- [00:22:25.100]LIBYA LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKE A FAILED STATE.
- [00:22:29.667]OR REMEMBER, IF THAT IS NOT ENOUGH TROUBLE, THE PROBLEMS
- [00:22:32.800]THAT PRESIDENT OBAMA WILL INEVITABLY BE FORCED TO CONSIDER
- [00:22:36.033]AND CONFRONT IN AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN.
- [00:22:40.633]WE STILL HAVE TENS OF THOUSANDS OF TROOPS IN AFGHANISTAN AND NO
- [00:22:44.834]AGREEMENT YET ON WHAT OUR PRESENCE WILL LOOK LIKE AFTER
- [00:22:47.900]THE 2014 COMBAT PULL-OUT.
- [00:22:51.033]NEVER MIND WHAT KIND OF ELECTION WILL TAKE PLACE IN AFGHANISTAN
- [00:22:55.000]WHERE THEY ARE SUPPOSED TO BE A TRANSITION FROM THE RULE OF
- [00:22:58.500]PRESIDENT HAMID KARZEI AND THERE IS VERY, VERY MUCH UNCERTAINTY
- [00:23:03.100]ABOUT WHETHER A PEACEFUL ELECTION CAN TAKE PLACE, NEVER
- [00:23:06.900]MIND WHAT THE RESULT WILL LOOK LIKE.
- [00:23:10.667]OR CONSIDER WHAT ABOUT ANOTHER CRISIS WITH NORTH KOREA?
- [00:23:14.734]IT WAS JUST A FEW MONTHS AFTER ALL, THAT WE WERE WORRIED ABOUT
- [00:23:17.967]BEING ON THE BRINK OF WAR ALL OVER AGAIN ON THE KOREAN
- [00:23:21.367]PENINSULA, NOT TO MENTION THAT POLITICS OF UNSTABLE YOUNG NEW
- [00:23:27.033]LEADER KIM JONG UN.
- [00:23:29.133]THEN THE PROBLEMS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING ECONOMIES IN
- [00:23:34.667]POWER HOUSES LIKE CHINA AND I YEAH, UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT
- [00:23:38.266]POLITICAL STABILITY IN BOTH OF THOSE COUNTRIES.
- [00:23:40.700]BOTH CHINA AND INDIA OF COURSE WERE THE BIG DRIVERS OF GROWTH
- [00:23:44.133]IN THE PREVIOUS DECADE.
- [00:23:45.700]NOT TO MENTION PULLING THE WORLD THROUGH AFTER THE ECONOMIC
- [00:23:49.967]CRISIS IN THE UNITED STATES IN 2008 AND ACROSS EUROPE.
- [00:23:54.033]WHAT IF WE CAN'T COUNT ON THEM GOING FORWARD TO DRIVE WORLD
- [00:23:58.700]ECONOMIC GROWTH?
- [00:23:59.600]THESE ARE JUST SOME OF THE CHALLENGES IN THE POTENTIAL
- [00:24:04.200]INBOX FOR PRESIDENT OBAMA.
- [00:24:05.266]I HAVEN'T SPOKEN AT ALL ABOUT A MUCH BROADER CATEGORY OF BOTH
- [00:24:13.433]OPPORTUNITIES AS WELL AS CHALLENGES THAT CONFRONT OBAMA
- [00:24:16.300]THAT HAVE TO DO WITH THE TRANSFORMING WORLD, AND IN THE
- [00:24:19.433]END, THAT MAY BE THE MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT FOREIGN POLICY
- [00:24:23.567]AGENDA TO THINK ABOUT IN BARACK OBAMA'S SECRETARY TERM.
- [00:24:28.467]HILLARY CLINTON, WHEN SHE WAS SECRETARY OF STATE, WAS FOND OF
- [00:24:31.433]SAYING OUR LEADERS ARE REQUIRED TO FOCUS ON THE HEADLINES AND
- [00:24:37.734]THE TREND LINES.
- [00:24:38.500]THESE ARE THE TREAD LINES, THEY ARE VERY DIFFERENT THAN WHO IS
- [00:24:42.867]UP AND WHO IS DOWN CONVERSATION THAT PREVAILS IN WASHINGTON.
- [00:24:45.800]WHETHER WE TALK ABOUT GAME-CHANGE IN WASHINGTON, WE
- [00:24:48.200]TEND TALK ABOUT THE BICKERING STAFF ON THE SARAH PALIN
- [00:24:55.667]CAMPAIGN.
- [00:24:56.166]THERE IS REAL CHANGE.
- [00:24:57.734]THINK FOR I EXAMPLE OF THE TRANSFORMATIVE OF THE OIL AND
- [00:25:08.400]GAS BOOM.
- [00:25:11.567]WE'RE TALKING ABOUT A REAL GAME CHANGER FOR AMERICAN POLITICS.
- [00:25:15.033]WE ARE IN FACT AS NEW NUMBERS OUT THIS WEEK SHOW, ALREADY THE
- [00:25:19.633]TOP ENERGY PRODUCER IN THE WORLD, DISPLACING POWER HOUSES
- [00:25:23.433]LIKE SAUDI ARABIA AND RUSSIA, FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE
- [00:25:29.467]ARAB OIL EMBARGO THAT HAPPENED 40 YEARS AGO THIS MONTH
- [00:25:32.333]IF THAT IS NOT A GAME-CHANGER, I DON'T KNOW WHAT IS.
- [00:25:35.834]THE RAPID URBANIZATION OF THE REST OF THE WORLD.
- [00:25:39.367]NOW ALREADY MORE THAN 50% OF THE WORLD'S POPULATION IS IN CITIES.
- [00:25:44.967]SO WHAT DOES IT MEAN AS WE ANTICIPATE A PLANET HEADED FROM
- [00:25:50.467]SEVEN BILLION TO EIGHT BILLION PEOPLE.
- [00:25:52.633]THINK ABOUT THIS.
- [00:25:53.567]MORE THAN 70% OF THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT IN 2050 DOES NOT YET
- [00:25:59.266]EXIST.
- [00:25:59.633]AT LEAST ACCORDING TO ONE OF MY INFORMANTS WHO IS BETTER
- [00:26:03.333]INFORMED ON THE SUBJECT.
- [00:26:04.667]THE CHOICE WE MAKE NOW ON INFRASTRUCTURE AND FOOD, THE
- [00:26:08.900]KIND OF HOUSING WE WANT, THE CARS WE DRIVE WILL CHANGE THE
- [00:26:17.500]WORLD.
- [00:26:17.800]BY THE WAY, THIS IS A DRAMATIC AMERICAN TREND, TOO.
- [00:26:21.400]AMERICA'S CITIES ARE GROWING AND INCREASINGLY OUTER SUBURBS AND
- [00:26:26.000]RURAL AREAS ARE BEING LEFT BEHIND IN SURPRISING NEW WAYS.
- [00:26:30.433]IN WAYS THAT WILL CHANGE OUR POLITICS AND ALREADY ARE FAIRLY
- [00:26:36.333]SIGNIFICANTLY.
- [00:26:36.900]AS OF 2011, AMERICA'S CITIES WERE GROWING FASTER THAN SUBURBS
- [00:26:42.333]FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE AMERICANS WERE DRIVING FORD
- [00:26:45.266]MODEL T'S.
- [00:26:46.333]THERE WILL BE A NEW POLITIC THAT COMES ALONG WITH THE NEW
- [00:26:49.734]GEOGRAPHY OF AMERICA.
- [00:26:51.433]ALREADY WE'RE SEEING THAT, INSTEAD DEEP DIFFICULT
- [00:26:54.300]DIVIDE BETWEEN RED STATES AND BLUE STATES, WE'RE SEEING A MUCH
- [00:26:58.367]MORE COMPLICATED MAP EMERGE.
- [00:27:00.633]IN THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, THERE WAS ONE SURE WAY
- [00:27:05.367]OF UNDERSTANDING WHETHER YOU WENT A PLACE THAT VOTED FOR
- [00:27:08.500]BARACK OBAMA OR ONE THAT VOTED FOR MITT ROMNEY.
- [00:27:11.266]IF YOU WERE IN A CITY OF OVER ONE MILLION PEOPLE, IT WAS
- [00:27:14.967]PRETTY MUCH A GUARANTEE THAT IT VOTED FOR BARACK OBAMA, BECAUSE
- [00:27:18.834]ALL AMERICAN CITIES OF THAT SIZE, OVER ONE MILLION PEOPLE,
- [00:27:22.834]VOTED FOR OBAMA.
- [00:27:24.467]ALL CITIES THAT WERE SMALLER THAN THAT, WERE EITHER THE
- [00:27:28.266]CONTESTED TERRITORY ON WHICH THE ELECTION WAS DECIDED OR
- [00:27:31.767]REPUBLICAN TERRITORY.
- [00:27:34.567]HERE'S ANOTHER TREND I WOULD SPOTLIGHT FOR YOU.
- [00:27:37.300]THE CONTINUING EMERGENCE OF A NEW GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS.
- [00:27:41.433]ANOTHER GAME-CHANGER, FOR GLOBAL POLITICS.
- [00:27:46.033]A BIG STORY OF THE LAST DECADE WAS THE RISE OUT OF POVERTY OF A
- [00:27:50.467]BILLION PEOPLE, FUELED BY THE REMARKABLE CHANGES IN CHINA AND
- [00:27:53.900]ASIA MORE BROADLY.
- [00:27:55.734]WILL THIS BE THE DECADE WHEN AFRICA JOINS THE PARTY?
- [00:27:58.767]MANY ARE ALREADY BETTING ON IT.
- [00:28:00.700]BUT THEN AGAIN, LOOK AT THE CARNAGE IN KENYA AT THE UPSCALE
- [00:28:06.066]WESTGATE MALL A FEW WEEKS AGO.
- [00:28:08.700]TARGETED BY AL-SHABAAB TERRORISTS IN A HORRIBLE CARNAGE
- [00:28:12.367]THAT REPRESENTED THE PHYSICAL AND ACTUAL CONVERGENCE OF THAT
- [00:28:17.033]NEW AFRICA OF RISING MIDDLE CLASS AND ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
- [00:28:21.467]ALONG WITH THE TERRIBLE GRINDING CIVIL WARS AND SECURITY
- [00:28:26.100]CONFLICTS OF A PREVIOUS ERA'S AFRICA POLICY.
- [00:28:31.200]THIS WILL BE A PAINFUL TRANSITION AND PRETTY MUCH THE
- [00:28:33.967]ONLY THING WE CAN BE SURE ABOUT THERE IS NO STRAIGHT LINES.
- [00:28:39.700]PREDICTING THE FUTURE IS A RISKY BUSINESS.
- [00:28:42.333]WHETHER IT IS THE FUTURE OF THE GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS, OR ANYTHING
- [00:28:46.266]ELSE.
- [00:28:46.734]JUST ASK THE NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE COUNCIL, WHICH NOT
- [00:28:50.500]LONG AGO CAME OUT WITH THE WIDELY ANTICIPATED REPORT ON
- [00:28:53.633]GLOBAL TRENDS IN 2030.
- [00:28:56.033]ONLY TO FIND ITSELF WIDELY CRITICIZED FOR PREDICTIONS THAT
- [00:28:59.600]WERE EITHER NOT OUT THERE ENOUGH, OR WAY TOO PREDICTABLE.
- [00:29:04.200]REMEMBER, THIS IS THE GROUP AFTER ALL THAT PREDICTED THE
- [00:29:06.767]COLLAPSE OF NORTH KOREA, AND THE REUNIFICATION OF THE KOREAN
- [00:29:11.767]PENINSULA.
- [00:29:12.233]BY 2010, THAT IS.
- [00:29:13.900]HOW IS THAT WORKING OUT?
- [00:29:18.400]BOB GATES, WHO WAS NOT ONLY THE FORMER HEAD OF THE CIA, BUT OF
- [00:29:23.667]COURSE THE LONG TIME HEAD OF THE DEFENSE DEPARTMENT UNDER BOTH
- [00:29:27.333]PRESIDENT BUSH AND PRESIDENT OBAMA, HAD IT RIGHT WHEN HE
- [00:29:30.767]POINTED OUT THIS FACT NOT TOO LONG AGO.
- [00:29:34.667]THE UNITED STATES HAS HAD A PRETTY UNBROKEN RECORD SINCE
- [00:29:37.867]VIET NAM WHEN IT COMES TO PREDICTING WHERE OUR NEXT
- [00:29:40.633]NATIONAL SECURITY CONFLICTS WILL COME.
- [00:29:44.333]100%.
- [00:29:45.200]100% WRONG THAT IS.
- [00:29:48.166]SO PLEASE, I DO OFFER THESE PREDICTIONS IN THE SPIRIT OF
- [00:29:54.367]ADVISING YOU TO TAKE THE APPROPRIATE GRAIN OF SALT.
- [00:30:01.166]I MUST SAY AGAIN AS WE TURN BACK TO THE DISCUSSION THAT I STARTED
- [00:30:05.266]THIS LECTURE WITH THIS EVENING, WHAT IS NEXT FOR PRESIDENT OBAMA
- [00:30:10.600]AS HE LOOKS TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE DIPLOMATIC OPENINGS AT A
- [00:30:15.734]TIME WHEN THE VERY NATURE OF AMERICAN POWER IS UNDER
- [00:30:20.667]QUESTION, WHEN THERE ARE REAL UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT WHETHER
- [00:30:25.467]AMERICA HAS LOST ITS ABILITY TO OPERATE DIPLOMATICALLY IN A
- [00:30:30.100]WORLD THAT HAS GOTTEN USED TO THE MILITARIZATION OF FOREIGN
- [00:30:34.800]POLICY.
- [00:30:35.166]WE'VE BECOME MORE COMFORTABLE PROJECTING OUR IDEALS AND VALUES
- [00:30:40.700]ACCOMPANIED BY THE BARREL OF A GUN IN MANY WAYS THAN WE HAVE IN
- [00:30:44.900]SITTING DOWN IN A ROOM TOGETHER WITH OUR ADVERSARIES OR WITH
- [00:30:49.100]PARTNERS WHO MAY OR MAY NOT HAVE OUR BEST INTERESTS AT HEART AND
- [00:30:52.000]YES I AM REFERRING TO VLADIMIR PUTIN.
- [00:30:55.400]SO, I THINK IT REPRESENTS A REAL CHALLENGE FOR BARACK OBAMA AS HE
- [00:31:01.000]THINKS ABOUT THE VERY KIND OF NEGOTIATING OPPORTUNITY THAT HE
- [00:31:04.834]CAME TO THE WHITE HOUSE BACK IN 2008, DETERMINED TO OPEN UP.
- [00:31:10.166]REMEMBER, IT HAS BEEN LONG FORGOTTEN BECAUSE SO MUCH HAS
- [00:31:12.934]HAPPENED SINCE THEN.
- [00:31:14.800]BUT OBAMA, ONE OF HIS VERY FIRST ACTS AS PRESIDENT WAS TO SEND A
- [00:31:19.266]LETTER TO THE IRANIAN LEADERS BACK IN 2009 AFTER HE WAS
- [00:31:26.233]INAUGURATED HE SENT AN OFFICIAL LETTER WITH A GREETING, THE
- [00:31:31.700]IRANIAN NEW YEAR IN THE SPRING TO THE LEADERSHIP AND SAID I'M
- [00:31:34.467]GOING TO MAKE GOOD ON MY PLEDGE TO SIT DOWN AND TALK WITH
- [00:31:39.166]AMERICA'S ENEMY AS WELL AS ITS FRIENDS, I'LL FEIGNED A WAY
- [00:31:42.734]FIND A WAY FOR A COMMON LANGUAGE.
- [00:31:48.433]WE HAVE HAD ALMOST NO EXAMPLES OF THAT BEING A PIVOT POINT, THE
- [00:31:53.000]ACTUAL OBAMA DOCTRINE, IF YOU WILL.
- [00:31:55.967]I'M PARTICULARLY FASCINATED AS SOMEONE WHO SPENDS HER TIME
- [00:32:00.934]THINKING ABOUT AND WRITING ABOUT AND OBSERVING UP CLOSE THE
- [00:32:04.100]MAKING OF FOREIGN POLICY, TO FIND US NOW IN THIS MOMENT WHEN
- [00:32:07.867]ALL THOSE THINGS WE KNOW ABOUT BARACK OBAMA WILL COME IN TO
- [00:32:12.867]PLAY AT EXACTLY THE WORST POSSIBLE TIME.
- [00:32:16.300]BECAUSE THAT IS WHAT HAPPENS, EVENTS DICTATE YOUR FOREIGN
- [00:32:20.166]POLICY, AS WELL AS YOUR OWN PRE CONDITIONS AND I THINK THAT IF
- [00:32:24.266]HE COULD HAVE DREAMED UP A MOMENT WHEN HE COULD HAVE BOTH
- [00:32:28.433]THE OPPORTUNITY OF AN OPENING WITH IRAN AT THE VERY SAME TIME
- [00:32:31.800]THAT THE AMERICAN CONGRESS AND HE ARE ENGAGED IN SUCH
- [00:32:38.233]DEVASTATING NON-NEGOTIATIONS, THAT THE ENTIRE WORLD IS LOOKING
- [00:32:41.767]ON AND WONDERING WHAT TO MAKE OF AMERICAN DEMOCRACY, IF I WROTE
- [00:32:46.266]THAT AS A SCREEN PLAY, YOU TELL ME, I THINK YOU BETTER COME UP
- [00:32:49.567]WITH SOMETHING A BIT MORE REALISTIC.
- [00:32:57.400]AMERICAN POLITICS WE'RE LUCKY IT IS NON-FICTION.
- [00:32:59.834]THOSE OF US WHO HAVE THE PRIVILEGE OF WRITING AND
- [00:33:02.066]THINKING ABOUT IT COULDN'T MAKE THIS STUFF UP.
- [00:33:03.934]YOU, OUR AUDIENCE, WOULD NOT WANT US TO.
- [00:33:06.500]I'M VERY INTERESTED IN TAKING ALL YOUR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS
- [00:33:10.567]THIS EVENING.
- [00:33:11.700]AND I WANT TO THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR ALLOWING ME TO OFFER MY
- [00:33:15.600]PREDICTIONS AND THOUGHTS ABOUT WHERE FOREIGN POLICY IS HEADED
- [00:33:18.934]WITH I HOPE THE APPROPRIATE CAVEATS.
- [00:33:22.800]SO THANK YOU VERY MUCH, I'LL LOOK FORWARD TO YOUR QUESTIONS
- [00:33:25.433]AND COMMENTS.
- [00:33:26.834][ APPLAUSE ]
- [00:33:30.367]>>> IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS PLEASE
- [00:33:39.600]GET A CARD FROM ONE OF THE USHERS, WRITE YOUR QUESTION
- [00:33:43.433]QUICKLY AND GIVE IT BACK TO THE USHERS SO THAT THOSE CAN BE
- [00:33:49.400]BROUGHT OVER HERE.
- [00:33:52.166]WHILE WE'RE WAITING FOR QUESTIONS TO COME FROM THE
- [00:33:58.734]AUDIENCE, LET ME FIRST RAISE A QUESTION THAT COMES FROM ONE OF
- [00:34:01.333]THE STUDENTS IN THE THOMPSON LEARNING COMMUNITY.
- [00:34:07.000]HAS THE UNITED STATES EXPERIENCED IN IRAQ AND
- [00:34:13.300]AFGHANISTAN IN THE U.S. AND WESTERN AMBITIONS FOR DEMOCRACY
- [00:34:18.199]PROMOTION ABROAD?
- [00:34:19.699]>> WELL THAT IS A GOOD QUESTION.
- [00:34:21.467]THIS IS NOT A PARTICULARLY GOOD WEEK TO BE ENGAGING IN DEMOCRACY
- [00:34:26.065]PROMOTION ABROAD.
- [00:34:27.567]IF ANYTHING, IT HAS BEEN AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A LITTLE BIT OF
- [00:34:35.734]TRIUMPHANT CHEST BEATING.
- [00:34:37.900]THERE WAS AN ARTICLE IN THE CHINESE NEWS AGENCY THE OTHER
- [00:34:41.734]DAY, PREDICTABLY SAYING GOVERNMENT SHUT DOWN, SHOWS FROM
- [00:34:53.766]FRAGILITY OF AMERICAN DEMOCRACY.
- [00:34:55.699]PUTTING ASIDE THE QUESTION OF OUR MILITARY PRESENCE IN
- [00:34:59.300]COUNTRIES LIKE IRAQ AND AFGHANISTAN OVER THE LAST
- [00:35:02.700]DECADE, IT IS A VERY DIFFICULT TIME FOR OBAMA OR FRANKLY ANY
- [00:35:07.533]AMERICAN LEADER TO BE MAKING THE CASE THAT THIS IS A SPECIAL AND
- [00:35:11.600]HIGHER FORM OF GOVERNMENT.
- [00:35:15.000]>> ANOTHER QUESTION FROM ANOTHER STUDENT IN THE THOMPSON LEARNING
- [00:35:18.533]COMMUNITY, DID OBAMA MAKE THE RIGHT DECISION IN SEEKING
- [00:35:23.633]CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL REGARDING INTERVENTION IN SYRIA?
- [00:35:27.700]>> WELL, THAT IS A GOOD QUESTION AND DEFINE "RIGHT."
- [00:35:31.166]IT CERTAINLY WAS A CONTROVERSIAL DECISION, AND ALSO I WOULD SAY
- [00:35:37.166]PRETTY CLEARLY IT WAS POLITICALLY NOT A GREAT CALL FOR
- [00:35:41.967]PRESIDENT OBAMA.
- [00:35:42.667]HE CAME UNDER A LOT OF CRITICISM FROM HIS SUPPORTERS BOTH ON THE
- [00:35:47.567]LEFT AS WELL AS FROM PEOPLE ON THE RIGHT.
- [00:35:50.867]AND I THINK CERTAINLY IT WAS A POLITICAL MISTAKE FOR HIM
- [00:35:54.433]REGARDLESS OF WHAT YOU THINK ON THE MERITS OF HIS DECISION, IT
- [00:35:58.500]BECAME VERY CLEAR AS SOON AS PRESIDENT OBAMA ANNOUNCED THAT
- [00:36:02.600]WHILE HE WAS IN FAVOR OF MILITARY ACTION ON SYRIA, THAT
- [00:36:08.000]AT THE SAME TIME HE BELIEVED HE WOULD GO TO CONGRESS AND SEEK
- [00:36:10.767]ITS AUTHORIZATION IN JUST A FEW DAYS IT WAS VERY, VERY
- [00:36:15.333]EVIDENT THAT CONGRESS HAD NO INTENTION OF GOING ALONG WITH
- [00:36:18.734]THIS AND THE VOTE SIMPLY WEREN'T THERE ON EITHER PARTY TO SUPPORT
- [00:36:23.000]DOING THAT.
- [00:36:23.700]THE STOMACH FOR ANY KIND OF MILITARY ENGAGEMENT OVERSEAS,
- [00:36:28.133]EVEN IN THE WAKE OF A HORRIFIC CHEMICAL WEAPONS ATTACK, WAS
- [00:36:32.333]VIRTUALLY NIL ON CAPITOL HILL.
- [00:36:34.633]SO IN THAT SENSE, IT WAS A FAILURE.
- [00:36:37.700]I THINK THERE ARE ALSO VERY REAL QUESTIONS FROM THOSE WHO FAVOR A
- [00:36:41.000]STRONG EXECUTIVE ABOUT WHETHER OBAMA WAS TRADING AWAY SOME OF
- [00:36:45.400]THE POWER OF THE PRESIDENCY, LEGALLY.
- [00:36:49.900]HE HAS ASSERTED HE WASN'T REQUIRED TO GO TO CONGRESS BUT
- [00:36:53.300]NONETHELESS WAS DOING SO.
- [00:36:54.400]BUT I THINK THAT LEFT THE SITUATION VERY MURKY AND IF IT
- [00:36:59.133]WEREN'T FOR THAT HELPING HAND THAT VLADIMIR PUTIN SURPRISINGLY
- [00:37:03.667]OFFERED AS A WAY OUT OF THE MESS, I THINK OBAMA WOULD HAVE
- [00:37:07.066]SUFFERED A VERY EMBARRASSING DEFEAT WITH CONGRESS.
- [00:37:11.667]>>> PLEASE CONTRAST PRESIDENT OBAMA'S FOREIGN POLICY WITH THAT
- [00:37:15.266]OF PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH.
- [00:37:18.600]>> WELL, THAT IS A VERY GOOD QUESTION, I'LL PUT IN A PLUG
- [00:37:22.400]HERE.
- [00:37:23.266]MY HUSBAND, WHO COVERS THE WHITE HOUSE FOR THE "NEW YORK TIMES,"
- [00:37:26.233]IS COMING OUT WITH A BIG BOOK ABOUT PRESIDENT BUSH AND VICE
- [00:37:31.934]PRESIDENT CHENEY IN A COUPLE WEEKS AND HAS A LOT OF THOUGHTS
- [00:37:35.266]ON THIS SUBJECT.
- [00:37:36.633]I WILL SAY THIS.
- [00:37:37.800]THERE IS IN SOME WAYS, BEEN MUCH LESS DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
- [00:37:41.867]FOREIGN POLICIES OF BARACK OBAMA AND GEORGE W. BUSH THAT YOU
- [00:37:48.700]MIGHT IMAGINE.
- [00:37:49.600]THE FOREIGN POLL IS THE OF THE SECOND TERM OF GEORGE W. BUSH.
- [00:38:00.133]HOW TO REPAIR AND MEND OUR RELATIONSHIP WITH WESTERN ALLIES
- [00:38:04.767]THAT HAD BEEN FRAYED AS A RESULT OF THE INVASION OF IRAQ.
- [00:38:13.367]IF YOU LOOK AT THE POLICIES, THE NATIONAL SECURITY POLICIES, THEY
- [00:38:16.967]HAVE THEIR ORIGINS IN ACTIONS TAKEN BY BUSH AND CONDOLEEZZA
- [00:38:23.333]RICE, HIS SECOND TERM SECRETARY OF STATE
- [00:38:25.934]IN SOME WAYS, THERE HAS BEEN A SURPRISING CONSISTENCY, LOOK AT
- [00:38:31.033]HOW BOTH PRESIDENT BUSH AND PRESIDENT OBAMA WERE ON THE
- [00:38:35.066]RECORD AS SAYING THEY WANTED TO CLOSE THE PRISON AT GUANTANAMO
- [00:38:39.033]BAY AND NEITHER ONE OF THEM WAS ABLE TO FIGURE OUT A WAY TO
- [00:38:42.567]SUCCESSFULLY DO THAT, EVEN THOUGH ARGUABLY THAT WAS ONE OF
- [00:38:46.467]THE KEY POLICY PROMISES THAT BARACK OBAMA MADE THAT HELPED
- [00:38:51.033]GET HIM ELECTED TO THE WHITE HOUSE IN 2008.
- [00:38:55.066]SO I THINK A REMINDER AND PERHAPS I SHOULD HAVE EMPHASIZED
- [00:39:03.333]MORE IN THE LECTURE, A REMINDER AMERICAN POLICY, WHILE SHAPED BY
- [00:39:07.900]INDIVIDUALS AND THERE IS NO QUESTION THAT AS AN INDIVIDUAL,
- [00:39:11.367]BARACK OBAMA HAS A DIFFERENT SET OF CONCERNS OF INTERESTS,
- [00:39:15.000]DIFFERENT BACKGROUND, THAN THAT OF GEORGE W. BUSH.
- [00:39:19.367]AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY IS VERY MUCH SHAPED BY NATIONAL
- [00:39:26.333]INTERESTS.
- [00:39:26.767]AND THE NATIONAL INTERESTS OF THE UNITED STATES DON'T CHANGE
- [00:39:28.734]BECAUSE WE HAVE AN ELECTION EVERY FOUR YEARS, AND THERE IS A
- [00:39:32.734]REAL CONSISTENCY IN MANY WAYS AS YOU LOOK OVER THE 200 YEAR
- [00:39:37.033]PERIOD OF AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY, THERE IS A REASON WHY WE
- [00:39:42.033]HAVE DONE CERTAIN THINGS THE WAY THAT WE DO THEM AND ONE OF THE
- [00:39:45.800]BIG REALITIES OF COURSE OF AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY IS THAT
- [00:39:50.000]WE'RE BLESSED WITH HAVING TWO LARGE OCEANS BETWEEN US AND THE
- [00:39:53.500]REST OF THE WORLD.
- [00:39:55.300]AND THAT HAS GIVEN US THE LUXURY TO DO THINGS LIKE TALK ABOUT THE
- [00:39:59.934]VIRTUES OF DEMOCRACY AND BEING A CITY ON THE HILL, THAT OTHER
- [00:40:03.400]COUNTRIES HAVEN'T HAD.
- [00:40:05.767]>> LET ME COMBINE A COUPLE QUESTIONS, HOW DOES AMERICAN AND
- [00:40:10.633]EUROPEAN ECONOMIC WEAKNESS IMPACT WORLD POLITICS?
- [00:40:13.867]COULD YOU COMMENT ON PRESIDENT OBAMA'S RELATION WITH THE
- [00:40:18.066]EUROPEAN UNION?
- [00:40:19.667]>> I'M SO GLAD THAT WHOEVER BROUGHT THAT UP BROUGHT THAT UP,
- [00:40:23.000]BECAUSE IT IS AMAZING TO ME HOW LITTLE ATTENTION THE U.S.
- [00:40:27.567]RELATIONSHIP WITH EUROPE GETS.
- [00:40:29.333]I THINK THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT TO THINK ABOUT IT.
- [00:40:31.834]WE SPEND AN AWFUL LOT OF TIME TALKING ABOUT THE PROBLEM AREAS
- [00:40:35.433]IN THE WORLD, RIGHT?
- [00:40:37.600]I SAID THAT U.S. FOREIGN POLICY RIGHT NOW COULD BE SUMMED UP AS
- [00:40:41.000]THE MIDDLE EAST, THE MIDDLE EAST, AND THE MIDDLE EAST.
- [00:40:45.867]EUROPE IS OUR BIGGEST TRADING PARTNER IN THE OVERALL, IT IS A
- [00:40:49.834]CORE OF OUR BOTH ECONOMIC POSITION IN THE WORLD BUT ALSO
- [00:40:55.333]IT IS OUR CLOSEST FRIEND, ALLY, PARTNER IN THE WORLD, AND YET,
- [00:40:59.867]WE ALL TOO OFTEN TAKE IT FOR GRANTED.
- [00:41:02.834]WHAT HAPPENED OVER THE LAST FIVE YEARS SINCE THE FINANCIAL
- [00:41:07.233]CRISIS, HAS BEEN A WRENCHING, ABSOLUTELY GUT-WRENCHING PERIOD
- [00:41:11.767]FOR THE EUROPEAN UNION, WHEN THE ENTIRE FOUNDATION OF THE
- [00:41:16.800]EUROPEAN UNITY PROJECT HAS COME IN QUESTION.
- [00:41:21.433]AMERICA HAS BEEN MORE OR LESS MISSING FROM THAT CONVERSATION
- [00:41:25.467]IN A WAY THAT LEFT EUROPE FEELING QUITE BEWILDERED AND
- [00:41:33.967]HURT AND FEEL THEY ARE TAKEN FOR GRANTED.
- [00:41:41.133]IN EUROPEAN CAPITALS CALLED HILLARY CLINTON AND THE WHITE
- [00:41:44.834]HOUSE WHEN THE ARTICLE APPEARED IN FOREIGN POLICY AND WHAT DO
- [00:41:49.233]YOU MEAN YOU'RE PIVOTING TO ASIA, WHAT ABOUT EUROPE?
- [00:41:53.300]WERE YOU GOING TO MAKE A MAJOR SHIFT LIKE THIS AND NOT CONSULT
- [00:41:57.567]YOUR MAJOR FRIENDS AND PARTNERS?
- [00:42:01.300]PRESIDENT OBAMA EARLIER THIS YEAR DID ANNOUNCE THAT HE WAS
- [00:42:04.000]GOING TO BEGIN A SERIES OF TRADE TALKS THAT WOULD POTENTIALLY
- [00:42:08.633]LEAD TO THE CREATION OF A U.S.-EUROPE FREE TRADE AREA AND
- [00:42:14.100]PARTNERSHIP BEYOND WHICH WE EVER HAD.
- [00:42:17.367]THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN ENORMOUS GAME-CHANGER FOR THE
- [00:42:22.166]WORLD ECONOMY AND THE AMERICAN ECONOMY.
- [00:42:24.500]BUT YOU DON'T HEAR VERY MUCH ABOUT IT AND THE REASON THAT YOU
- [00:42:26.900]DON'T IS BECAUSE TRADE NEGOTIATIONS LIKE THAT TAKE
- [00:42:30.033]YEARS AND YEARS.
- [00:42:31.600]IF IT EVER HAPPENS, IT WILL BE LONG AFTER THE CONCLUSION OF THE
- [00:42:41.600]OBAMA PRESIDENCY.
- [00:42:43.100]TALKING ABOUT A NEW ROUND OF NEGOTIATIONS ON WHETHER AND ON
- [00:42:45.600]WHAT TERMS TO BAIL OUT GREECE.
- [00:42:48.667]SO IT GOES, AMERICA, UNFORTUNATELY, HAS NOT REALLY
- [00:42:54.467]BEEN INVOLVED IN HELPING EUROPE TO SETTLE THOSE BASIC QUESTIONS
- [00:42:59.967]ABOUT THE ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP AND THE FOUNDATION OF THEIR
- [00:43:03.734]UNION.
- [00:43:04.033]AND SO I THINK THESE ARE ACTUALLY, A DANGEROUS TIME TO
- [00:43:08.433]IGNORE EUROPE AND TO TAKE YOUR FRIENDS FOR GRANTED.
- [00:43:14.633]>> WE'LL SHIFT ACROSS THE PACIFIC, THIS QUESTION COMES
- [00:43:17.700]FROM A JAPANESE STUDENT, JAPAN DECIDED TO JOIN THE TRANS
- [00:43:22.967]PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP IN JULY AND THIS IS QUITE BIG ISSUE IN MY
- [00:43:28.800]COUNTRY.
- [00:43:29.166]HOW MUCH IS THE TRANS PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP IMPORTANT FOR THE
- [00:43:32.667]UNITED STATES?
- [00:43:34.834]>> THAT IS A VERY GOOD QUESTION, TOO, AGAIN IT CERTAINLY IS NOT
- [00:43:37.767]SOMETHING THAT GETS A LOT OF ATTENTION HERE IN THE UNITED
- [00:43:41.734]STATES.
- [00:43:42.100]BUT THE TRANS PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP WAS ONE OF THE MAIN
- [00:43:45.633]REASONS THAT PRESIDENT OBAMA WAS SUPPOSED TO BE AT THE APEC
- [00:43:53.133]SUMMIT AND WHAT HE WAS SUPPOSED TO BE TOUTING, THEY HAVE
- [00:44:02.767]IDENTIFIED AN ECONOMIC AND TRADE PARTNERSHIP THAT IS ALSO MEANT
- [00:44:06.433]TO BE A KEY PART OF THE NEW SECURITY ARCHITECTURE OF THE
- [00:44:11.367]REGION, AND THE IDEA IS THAT WE DON'T KNOW WHAT IS GOING TO
- [00:44:16.000]HAPPEN NEXT IN THE ASIA PACIFIC REGION BUT CLEARLY CHINA, AFTER
- [00:44:22.033]THIS EXTRAORDINARY SEVERAL DECADE RUN OF ECONOMIC GROWTH IS
- [00:44:25.500]FEELING MUCH MORE ASSERTIVE AND MUCH MORE INTERESTED IN
- [00:44:30.934]PROJECTING POWER BEYOND ITS BORDERS, IN WAYS THAT IT WAS NOT
- [00:44:35.300]THROUGH THE PERIOD OF THIS ECONOMIC RISE WHEN IT WAS REALLY
- [00:44:39.767]FOCUSED ON DOMESTIC ISSUES.
- [00:44:41.633]AND THAT THE UNITED STATES WAS GOING TO HAVE TO PLAY A MUCH
- [00:44:46.066]MORE STRATEGIC GAME IN THE REGION IF IT WAS TO MAINTAIN ITS
- [00:44:49.734]POSITION OF PRE-EMINENCE, IT WAS GOING HAVE TO EW
- [00:45:00.800]PARTNERSHIPS AND ALLIANCES WITH VIET NAM, FOR EXAMPLE, WHERE WE
- [00:45:04.867]HAD A MUCH RENEWED DIALOGUE AND CONVERSATION AS THE VIETNAMESE
- [00:45:11.300]HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY CONCERNED ABOUT THE NATURE OF
- [00:45:14.500]CHINA'S RISE.
- [00:45:15.367]CHINA IS THE HISTORICAL ENEMY OF VIET NAM AND SHARES A LONG
- [00:45:19.867]BORDER WITH IT.
- [00:45:22.300]THERE HAS BEEN AND ACCOMPANYING UNFREEZING OF RELATIONSHIPS WITH
- [00:45:25.800]THE UNITED STATES THAT ARE REALLY PRETTY UNPRECEDENTED.
- [00:45:29.900]A SORT OF LONG-WINDED WAY SAYING OUR ABSENCE FROM THE REGION, THE
- [00:45:33.934]LACK OF REALITY TO THE ASIA PIVOT POTENTIALLY UNDERMINED A
- [00:45:38.633]LOT OF WORK THAT WENT INTO THINGS LIKE THE TRANS PACIFIC
- [00:45:41.600]PARTNERSHIP AND OTHER EFFORTS BYBY AMERICAN OFFICIALS TO BUILD
- [00:45:49.200]A NEW SECURITY AND ARCHITECTURE FOR OUR RELATIONS WITH ASIA.
- [00:45:52.734]>> THIS QUESTION TOUCHES ON SOME OF THE SAME ISSUES FROM A
- [00:45:55.633]DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVE.
- [00:45:57.834]WILL THE BRICKS NATIONS USED THEIR POWER IN THE ASIAN MARKET
- [00:46:01.266]TO SHIFT POWER AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES AS THE GLOBAL
- [00:46:06.633]LEADER?
- [00:46:07.133]>> WELL, I THINK THAT IS A REALLY INTERESTING QUESTION.
- [00:46:10.467]I'M SURE YOU'VE HEARD A LOT OF CONVERSATION ABOUT THE RISE OF
- [00:46:15.133]THE REST, THAT THE BRICK, BRAZIL, RUSSIA, INDIA, CHINA AND
- [00:46:21.734]OFFICIALLY THE S BECAME PART OF IT, WITH THE ADDITION OF SOUTH
- [00:46:27.867]AFRICA TO THAT GROUP.
- [00:46:31.233]HOWEVER, AS I MENTIONED IN MY REMARKS, THAT GROWTH BY THOSE
- [00:46:36.367]EMERGING ECONOMIES HAS STARTED TO SLOW OVER THE LAST COUPLE
- [00:46:42.433]YEARS.
- [00:46:42.767]AND THERE REMAIN SERIOUS POLITICAL QUESTIONS ABOUT
- [00:46:47.533]WHETHER INDIA, CHINA, RUSSIA OF COURSE, WHETHER THEY HAVE THE
- [00:46:53.600]ABILITY TO STEP UP AND PLAY A GLOBAL LEADERSHIP ROLE THAT
- [00:46:58.200]WOULD POTENTIALLY DISLODGE THE UNITED STATES FROM THIS POSITION
- [00:47:02.367]OF PRE EMINENCE.
- [00:47:05.333]IT DOES SEEM CLEAR CHINA IS LIKELY TO OVERTAKE THE UNITED
- [00:47:09.100]STATES AT SOME POINT AS THE WORLD'S LARGEST ECONOMY, BUT
- [00:47:12.967]WHAT KIND OF A LEADERSHIP ROLE IT WILL PLAY AS A RESULT OF THAT
- [00:47:16.133]IS ENTIRELY UNCLEAR.
- [00:47:18.533]AND I THINK THAT ONE THING THAT WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR IS THAT NONE
- [00:47:23.533]OF THOSE COUNTRIES IS CURRENTLY WIRED IN A WAY TO STEP IN TO THE
- [00:47:30.333]VACUUM THAT WOULD BE LEFT BY AN AMERICA, THAT PULLED SHARPLY
- [00:47:33.467]BACK FROM THE WORLD.
- [00:47:35.633]AND I THINK EVEN THESE CRISES IN THE MIDDLE EAST ARE A POWERFUL
- [00:47:42.867]REMINDER OF THAT.
- [00:47:43.867]AS MUCH AS AMERICAN LEADERSHIP IN THE WORLD IS CRITICIZED AND
- [00:47:47.200]COMPLAINED ABOUT, AT THE SAME TIME, WHEN AMERICA IS ABSENT,
- [00:47:50.367]WHAT YOU TEND TO HEAR FROM LEADERS AROUND THE WORLD IS
- [00:47:55.166]"WHERE ARE YOU GUYS HIDING, CAN YOU PLEASE STEP IN AND HELP US
- [00:47:58.200]DEAL WITH THIS TERRIBLE CRISIS" WHETHER IT IS BASHAR AL-ASSAD,
- [00:48:07.533]TO FIRE CHEMICAL WEAPONS AT HIS OWN PEOPLE.
- [00:48:09.567]THERE IS NO INHERENT REASON, HE DOESN'T THREATEN US DIRECTLY
- [00:48:12.767]WITH THOSE CHEMICAL WEAPONS, AND YET AT THE SAME TIME, THE WORLD
- [00:48:16.767]IS USED TO AN AMERICAN LEADERSHIP THAT GOES BEYOND
- [00:48:22.600]NARROW SELF INTEREST AND DEFINES ITSELF 50s A GUARANTOR OF
- [00:48:28.166]INTERNATIONAL LAW AS A KIND OF COUNTRY THAT ONE SHOULD TURN TO,
- [00:48:31.767]THERE IS NO EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST THAT A BRAZIL OR RUSSIA OR INDIA
- [00:48:36.533]WOULD HAVE ANY INTEREST WHATSOEVER IN TAKING ON A
- [00:48:41.734]LEADERSHIP ROLE THE NEXT TIME A DICTATOR CHOOSES TO USE CHEMICAL
- [00:48:45.400]WEAPONS SOMEWHERE IN THE WORLD THAT DOESN'T CONCERN THOSE
- [00:48:48.433]COUNTRIES.
- [00:48:48.900]AND IN FACT ALL OF THEM HAVE A LONG RECORD STEMMING FROM COLD
- [00:48:55.600]WAR TIMES, FROM THE LEGACY OF COLONIALISM OF SAYING WE'RE
- [00:49:01.900]ADAMANTLY AGAINST INTERNATIONAL INTERVENTION IN OTHER COUNTRIES
- [00:49:05.467]AFFAIRS.
- [00:49:05.867]IN WAYS THAT HAVE REALLY I THINK HAMPERED THEM FROM STEPPING IN
- [00:49:09.633]AND PLAYING MORE SIGNIFICANT LEADERSHIP ROLES ON THE GLOBAL
- [00:49:14.834]STAGE.
- [00:49:15.233]>> LET ME COMBINE A COUPLE QUESTIONS, ONE DEALING WITH
- [00:49:17.500]SANCTIONS AND THE OTHER WITH IRAN.
- [00:49:20.567]MANY BOAST ABOUT THE EFFECTIVENESS OF SANCTIONS,
- [00:49:23.934]HOWEVER, CRITICS CLAIM THEY ONLY SUBJUGATE INNOCENCE
- [00:49:28.333]WHAT DO YOU THINK?
- [00:49:29.600]ISN'T THE RECENT DIPLOMATIC OPENING IN IRAN MOSTLY MOTIVATED
- [00:49:33.900]BY IRAN'S ECONOMIC ISSUES?
- [00:49:36.800]AND TO WHAT EXTENT THEN DOES THE SHUTDOWN IMPACT THESE
- [00:49:43.867]NEGOTIATIONS?
- [00:49:44.400]>> WELL THAT IS A VERY GOOD AND VERY TIMELY SET OF QUESTIONS.
- [00:49:47.500]FIRST OF ALL, ON SANCTIONS, THERE IS INDEED AS THE QUESTION
- [00:49:51.700]POINTED OUT, A VERY ROBUST AND TO ME, I THINK UNSETTLED DEBATE
- [00:49:57.533]OVER THE EFFECTIVENESS OF SANCTIONS.
- [00:49:59.834]THERE IS CERTAINLY A SCHOOL OF THOUGHT THAT SAYS LOOK, THE ONLY
- [00:50:04.500]REASON THE IRANIANS HAVE COME TO THE TABLE NOW IS BECAUSE WE
- [00:50:08.000]FINALLY PUT IN PLACE A NEW SERIES OF ECONOMIC SANCTIONS
- [00:50:12.266]THAT HAVE TAKEN SUCH A BITE OUT OF THE IRANIAN ECONOMY THAT
- [00:50:15.266]FORCED SUCH PAIN THAT THEY BROUGHT THEM TO THE TABLE.
- [00:50:18.700]AND THERE IS CERTAINLY A VERY ROBUST SCHOOL OF THOUGHT THAT
- [00:50:22.367]BELIEVES THAT TO BE THE CASE.
- [00:50:23.967]ON THE OTHER HAND, THERE ARE THOSE WHO SAY THIS IS THE WRONG
- [00:50:30.767]APPROACH TO TAKE. I WAS AT A DINNER LAST YEAR I
- [00:50:36.834]SAT WITH DEKLERK, AND REMEMBER, HE WENT ON TO WIN THE
- [00:50:43.333]NOBEL PEACE PRIZE WITH NELSON MANDELA IN SOUTH AFRICA, IT WAS
- [00:50:54.567]A FASCINATING DINNER CONVERSATION, HE SAID I
- [00:51:02.433]TRUELY BELIEVE YOU AMERICANS ARE OBSESSED WITH SANCTIONS AND
- [00:51:05.266]WE WERE TALKING ABOUT IRAN AND EFFECTIVENESS OF THE
- [00:51:08.633]SANCTIONS THERE.
- [00:51:08.934]HE SAID I'M CONVINCED THE INTERNATIONAL SANCTIONS LED BY
- [00:51:13.367]AMERICAN ACTIVISTS THAT WERE IMPOSED UPON SOUTH AFRICA
- [00:51:18.467]LENGTHENED THE PERIOD OF APARTHEID RULE RATHER THAN
- [00:51:25.166]HASTENING THE DEMISE.
- [00:51:26.233]YOU HAVE A REAL DEBATE WHAT EXACTLY HAS BROUGHT THE IRANIANS
- [00:51:30.000]TO THE TABLE NOW?
- [00:51:32.467]IT IS POSSIBLE TO ISOLATE ANY ONE SINGLE CAUSE.
- [00:51:35.433]I WILL SAY THIS, PRESIDENT ROUHANI, WHEN HE CAME TO NEW
- [00:51:40.533]YORK FOR THE U.N. GENERAL ASSEMBLY IN SEPTEMBER, HE MET
- [00:51:44.500]WITH A NUMBER OF JOURNALISTS, INCLUDING ME, AND I WAS VERY
- [00:51:49.166]STRUCK BY THE FACT THAT THE ECONOMY AND THE ECONOMIC
- [00:51:54.433]CONDITIONS IN IRAN WERE A KEY PART OF HIS CASE FOR REFORM, FOR
- [00:52:00.800]HIS CASE FOR WHY HE WAS COMING WITH SUCH A DIFFERENT MESSAGE,
- [00:52:05.033]NOT ONLY TO THE UNITED STATES, BUT TO THE WORLD.
- [00:52:07.633]AND SO I DO THINK IT WOULD BE A MISTAKE TO DISREGARD THE EFFECT
- [00:52:12.600]OF THOSE SANCTIONS HAVE HAD, THE BITE TO THE IRANIAN ECONOMY, THE
- [00:52:17.233]FACT THAT IRAN FEELS ITSELF TO BE EXCLUDED FROM THE CIVILIZED
- [00:52:22.367]WORLD, BASICALLY THE MESSAGE OF SANCTIONS IS WE'RE CUTTING YOU
- [00:52:25.767]OFF, IN A GLOBALIZED WORLD WE'RE NOT GOING TO LET YOU COMPETE AND
- [00:52:29.367]BE AN EQUAL PARTNER IN THE COMMUNITY OF NATIONS AND I THINK
- [00:52:33.233]FOR A COUNTRY WITH A LONG AND PROUD HISTORIC TRADITION THAT
- [00:52:36.900]SEES ITSELF AT THE CENTER OF ITS REGION, TO BE CUT OFF IN THAT
- [00:52:42.500]WAY CERTAINLY INVITES BOTH ECONOMICALLY BUT ALSO I THINK IN
- [00:52:49.100]LESS TANGIBLE PSYCHOLOGICAL WAYS IT MAY WELL INFLUENCE A DECISION
- [00:52:53.700]BY THE IRANIAN PEOPLE TO TRY A DIFFERENT COURSE.
- [00:52:57.900]>> HAS THE UNITED STATES MADE A MISTAKE UNILATERALLY IN SIDING
- [00:53:02.667]WITH DEMOCRACY VERSUS DICTATORSHIP IN IRAQ, EGYPT,
- [00:53:07.200]SYRIA, ET CETERA?
- [00:53:09.633]>> WELL, THAT IS AN INTERESTING QUESTION, THERE IS A LOT OF
- [00:53:12.400]ASSUMPTIONS TO UNPACK IN IT.
- [00:53:15.033]I THINK ONE OF THE THINGS I WOULD SAY IS THAT IT IS VERY
- [00:53:20.066]HARD TO SEPARATE THINGS OUT IN SUCH BLACK AND WHITE NOTIONS AND
- [00:53:24.367]I THINK AMERICANS IN A POSITIVE SENSE, LIKE ANYBODY ELSE, WE
- [00:53:29.633]LIKE STORIES THAT HAVE GOOD GUYS AND BAD GUYS, THAT HAVE BLACK
- [00:53:33.433]AND WHITE, THAT HAVE CLEAR CUT NARRATIVES AND HAPPY ENDINGS,
- [00:53:38.133]AND I THINK WE WERE SO EAGER TO SEE IN THE ARAB AWAKENING AND
- [00:53:42.967]THE ARAB SPRING A STORY ABOUT GOOD GUYS AND BAD GUYS, THAT WE
- [00:53:49.166]WERE QUITE BLIND TO MANY OF THE OTHER FACTORS THAT WOULD COME IN
- [00:53:52.667]TO PLAY AND OF COURSE THERE WERE MANY SMART STUDENTS OF
- [00:53:58.500]REVOLUTIONS WHO COULD TELL YOU THAT REVOLUTIONS TAKE A LONG
- [00:54:01.834]TIME TO PLAY OUT.
- [00:54:03.533]YOU REMEMBER THE FAMOUS REMARK WHEN ASKED ABOUT THE FRENCH
- [00:54:11.400]REVOLUTION, WE CHINESE ARE WAITING TO SEE HOW IT ENDS UP.
- [00:54:18.233]SO, THESE ARE EARLY DAYS YET IN THE MIDDLE EAST BUT I DO THINK
- [00:54:22.233]EVEN WHEN IT COMES TO THE QUESTION OF CAN AMERICA HAVE A
- [00:54:26.767]POLICY OF SUPPORTING DEMOCRACIES AND WORKING AGAINST
- [00:54:33.567]DICTATORSHIPS, IT IS VERY HARD EVEN THERE TO HAVE A CLEAR CUT
- [00:54:37.700]PATH THROUGH THE MESSY REALITIES OF THE WORLD AND OF COURSE WE
- [00:54:40.834]HAVE A FAIRLY SHAMEFUL HISTORY IN THE COLD WAR OF DISREGARDING
- [00:54:46.934]ENTIRELY THINGS LIKE DEMOCRACY AND HUMAN RIGHTS WHEN WE SAW IT
- [00:54:51.433]WAS TO OUR ADVANTAGE IN OUR GLOBAL CONTESTS WITH THE SOVIET
- [00:54:55.433]UNION, WE CERTAINLY BACKED UP MANY HORRIBLE DICTATORSHIPS AND
- [00:55:00.934]UNDERMINED MANY GENUINE DEMOCRACIES.
- [00:55:03.900]SINCE THE END OF THE COLD WAR, MORE OF A CONSENSUS WE SHOULD
- [00:55:08.033]MOVE AWAY FROM EXCUSING DICTATORSHIP AND REPRESSION IN
- [00:55:14.166]OUR ALLIES AND WE HAVE GENERALLY SPEAKING MOVED AWAY FROM DOING
- [00:55:19.633]THAT BUT THAT DOESN'T MEAN WE HAVE EXCLUSIVELY DONE SO.
- [00:55:24.467]LOOK AT THE HELP THAT WE'VE RECEIVED FROM UZBEKISTAN ONE OF
- [00:55:28.867]THE MOST BRUTAL, ISOLATED COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD.
- [00:55:33.700]WHY?
- [00:55:33.967]IS IT BECAUSE WE LIKE THE GOVERNMENT?
- [00:55:38.233]IS IT BECAUSE WE SUPPORT THE FACT THAT HE'S MASSACRED ANYBODY
- [00:55:42.367]WHO PRETENDED TO SAY A PRAYER OR GROW A BEARD?
- [00:55:45.867]OF COURSE NOT.
- [00:55:46.667]IT IS BECAUSE HE HAPPENS TO BE STRATEGICALLY LOCATED RIGHT NEXT
- [00:55:50.166]TO AFGHANISTAN.
- [00:55:54.967]IT IS HELPFUL TO HAVE ACCESS TO LONG RUNWAYS WELL MADE FORMER
- [00:55:59.533]SOVIET MILITARY BASES THAT HAPPENED TO BE NEXT DOOR.
- [00:56:02.467]AND SO THOSE ARE THE KIND OF TRADE-OFFS THAT WE ARE
- [00:56:06.533]CONSTANTLY MAKING IN AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY AND THAT
- [00:56:09.333]UNFORTUNATELY ARE HAPPENING TODAY.
- [00:56:10.967]YOU HEAR A LOT ABOUT THE REPRESSIONS THAT HAVE HAPPENED
- [00:56:16.367]IN IRAN FOR EXAMPLE OR SYRIA, YOU DON'T HEAR VERY MUCH ABOUT
- [00:56:20.000]THE CRACKDOWN THAT HAS BEEN HAPPENING IN THE GULF STATE OF
- [00:56:24.600]BAHRAIN SINCE THE PROTEST OF THE ARAB SPRING.
- [00:56:26.734]WHY NOT?
- [00:56:27.300]BECAUSE THE U.S.'S FIFTH FLEET IS HEADQUARTERED THERE.
- [00:56:32.567]BAHRAIN IS A POWERFUL ALLY.
- [00:56:35.200]SO WE DON'T HAVE THE KIND OF CLEAR-CUT FOREIGN POLICY WHEN IT
- [00:56:40.233]COMES TO BEING FRIENDS WITH DEMOCRACIES AND TAKING ON
- [00:56:45.934]DICTATORSHIPS THAT YOU MIGHT THINK THAT THE AMERICAN PEOPLE
- [00:56:49.500]WOULD DICTATE.
- [00:56:52.233]>> IS THE USE OF POISON GAS IN SYRIA OR IN GENERAL
- [00:56:57.500]CATEGORICALLY DIFFERENT FROM OTHER TYPES OF WARFARE?
- [00:57:00.133]SHOULD THE WORLD'S REACTION BE DIFFERENT?
- [00:57:03.400]>> YOU KNOW, THIS IS A POWERFUL QUESTION, OBVIOUSLY, GETS RIGHT
- [00:57:06.667]TO THE HEART OF WHAT OUR POSITION SHOULD BE IN GLOBAL
- [00:57:12.200]AFFAIRS.
- [00:57:12.633]THE TRAGEDY OF THE CIVIL WAR IN SYRIA IS THAT MORE THAN 100,000
- [00:57:16.767]PEOPLE HAVE DIED.
- [00:57:20.500]SOME SUB-SET HAVE DIED THROUGH THE USE OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS,
- [00:57:23.533]INCLUDING MANY INNOCENT CHILDREN AND CIVILIANS.
- [00:57:27.000]IS THE ONE KIND OF DEATH MORE HORRIFIC OR MORE MEANINGFUL THAN
- [00:57:31.333]THE OTHERS, THAT IS THE QUESTION AND I THINK MANY AMERICAN.
- [00:57:37.900]TRY EXPLAINING THAT TO YOUR EIGHT-YEAR-OLD SON, THE
- [00:57:40.266]DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE DEAD PEOPLE WHO ARE 1500 PEOPLE AND
- [00:57:45.567]THE OTHER 95000 PEOPLE.
- [00:57:51.100]IT IS HARD TO DO.
- [00:57:52.066]ON THE OTHER HAND THERE ARE BROAD PRINCIPLES, WHEN IT COMES
- [00:57:54.800]TO THE USE OF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION THAT I THINK THERE
- [00:57:58.233]IS NOT ONLY A NATIONAL INTEREST BUT A GLOBAL INTEREST IN MAKING
- [00:58:03.834]CLEAR HOW VERY UNACCEPTABLE THIS IS.
- [00:58:06.934]AND SO I'M SYMPATHETIC TO BOTH SIDES OF THAT DEBATE.
- [00:58:12.033]BECAUSE I THINK IT IS A PRETTY ENGLISHED CONVERSATION TO
- [00:58:18.800]BE HAVING.
- [00:58:19.300]>> TWO SIMILAR QUESTIONS TO GET THE TONE FROM THE TWO PEOPLE WHO
- [00:58:21.734]WROTE THE QUESTIONS.
- [00:58:23.066]IT IS PRETTY EASY TO CRITICIZE FROM SIDELINES.
- [00:58:26.300]WHAT POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS DO YOU HAVE FOR THE LITANY OF WOES
- [00:58:31.467]THAT HAVE EXIST FORWARD ALL PRESIDENTS THAT HAVE COME
- [00:58:37.834]BEFORE?
- [00:58:38.233]IN THE IDEAL CASE WHERE WOULD YOU LIKE TO SEE OBAMA'S FOREIGN
- [00:58:42.066]POLICY HEAD IN THE REMAINDER OF HIS PRESIDENCY?
- [00:58:45.633]>> WELL, I GUESS I'LL EXERCISE WHAT I WILL CALL A JOURNALIST
- [00:58:49.567]PRIVILEGE AND SAY IT IS UNDOUBTEDLY EASY TO CRITICIZE
- [00:58:54.100]THAN ADVISE.
- [00:58:55.500]SO I HAVE A MUCH LESS DIFFICULT JOB NO QUESTION THAN PRESIDENT
- [00:59:00.567]OBAMA DOES, AND I'M ALWAYS VERY WELL AWARE OF THAT.
- [00:59:05.033]IT IS A LOT EASIER TO THROW STONES, AND THAT IS SOMETHING
- [00:59:08.600]THAT JOURNALISTS EXCEL AT.
- [00:59:10.600]I DON'T HAVE A READY-MADE POLICY PRESCRIPTION FOR THE PRESIDENT.
- [00:59:14.767]I THINK THAT ONE THING WE HAVE SEEN THAT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE
- [00:59:21.934]AND IMPORTANT TO OBSERVE, PRESIDENT OBAMA CAME IN TO
- [00:59:25.166]OFFICE WITH AN UNUSUALLY SWEEPING RHETORICAL SET OF
- [00:59:30.100]PLEDGES AND COMMITMENTS ABOUT THE KIND OF FOOTPRINT HE WAS
- [00:59:34.166]GOING TO HAVE IN THE WORLD AND I THINK HE PERHAPS INSPIRED SOME
- [00:59:38.300]PEOPLE TO THINK THIS WAS REALLY GOING TO BE SOMETHING DIFFERENT.
- [00:59:43.734]BUT I WOULD SAY TO YOU THAT YOU'RE ALWAYS GOING TO BE ON
- [00:59:47.967]SAFE GROUND WHEN SOMEONE PROMISES THEY WILL STOP THE RISE
- [00:59:51.266]OF THE SEAS AND MAKE THE ENTIRE PLANET A BETTER PLACE, THAT
- [00:59:56.467]THERE MIGHT BE A LITTLE BIT OF CAMPAIGN RHETORIC INVOLVED IN
- [01:00:00.700]THAT AND THAT IT IS ALWAYS BEST TO LOOK SKEPTICALLY ON SWEEPING
- [01:00:05.300]CLAIMS FOR TRANSFORMATION OFFERED BY POLITICIANS, NO
- [01:00:08.900]MATTER HOW APPEALING OF A GARB THEY ARE CLOAKED IN.
- [01:00:14.166]THAT IS WHY I'M A JOURNALIST AND NOT A POLICY MAKER.
- [01:00:17.433]>> HOW WOULD YOU GO ABOUT GETTING THE AMERICAN PEOPLE TO
- [01:00:19.900]TAKE TO HEART THE IMPORTANCE OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS WITH ECONOMIC
- [01:00:24.433]TROUBLES AT HOME?
- [01:00:26.133]>> WELL, YOU KNOW, I THINK THE QUESTION REALLY SUGGESTS PART OF
- [01:00:30.433]THE CHALLENGE AND PART OF PROBLEM.
- [01:00:32.967]IF YOU FRAME FOREIGN POLICY, IF YOU FRAME THE WORLD AS SOMEHOW
- [01:00:38.000]IN CONFLICT WITH OUR NEEDS AT HOME, IF YOU THINK OF IT AS A
- [01:00:42.300]ZERO SUM GAME, YOU'RE LIKELY TO MAKE ONE SET OF CHOICES.
- [01:00:46.000]IN REALITY, IF YOU LOOK AT THE WAY OUR WORLD FUNCTIONS TODAY,
- [01:00:49.967]LOOK AT HOW GLOBAL A STATE LIKE NEBRASKA IS, IN WAYS THAT ARE
- [01:00:55.700]ABSOLUTELY TRANSFORMED FROM WHAT ITS ECONOMY WAS LESS THAN A
- [01:01:00.900]GENERATION AGO.
- [01:01:02.400]NEBRASKA HAS CONNECTIONS TO SO MANY COUNTRIES AND TO SO MANY
- [01:01:06.834]PART OF THE WORLD THAT ARE DEPENDENT ON ITS AGRICULTURE IN
- [01:01:11.367]WAYS THAT WERE UNTHINKABLE A FEW YEARS AGO.
- [01:01:17.367]I THINK IT IS KIND OF A BINARY THINKING IN MANY WAYS PROBABLY
- [01:01:23.000]LIMITS THE AMERICAN POLITICAL CONVERSATION AROUND FOREIGN
- [01:01:26.367]POLICY AND I THINK IT HAMPERS IT.
- [01:01:28.033]ONE OF THE CLASSIC TESTS OF THIS IF YOU ASK PEOPLE ANYWHERE IN
- [01:01:34.467]AMERICA WELL, ARE YOU -- HOW DO YOU FEEL ABOUT AMERICAN FOREIGN
- [01:01:38.867]AID?
- [01:01:39.133]AND THEY'VE DONE STUDIES, FIRST OF ALL, AMERICANS WILL NOT ONLY
- [01:01:43.233]GET WRONG HOW MUCH FOREIGN AID WE GIVE, BUT WILDLY.
- [01:01:48.333]I ACTUALLY SAW THIS HAPPEN ONCE ON A TRAIN, I HAPPENED TO BE
- [01:01:51.934]LISTENING TO PEOPLE WHO WERE HAVING A BIG ARGUMENT ABOUT
- [01:01:55.600]AMERICA AND THE PLACE IN THE WORLD AND I COULD TELL THE GUY
- [01:01:58.667]WAS SORT OF A WASHINGTON INSIDER TYPE SO HE SAYS TO THIS WOMAN,
- [01:02:03.500]WELL, HOW MUCH AID DO YOU THINK FOREIGN AID DO WE GIVE TO OTHER
- [01:02:07.700]COUNTRIES?
- [01:02:08.333]WHAT PERCENT AGE OF OUR BUDGET IS THAT.
- [01:02:10.767]SURE ENOUGH SHE SAID I DON'T KNOW.
- [01:02:13.233]I DON'T KNOW WHAT IT IS EXACTLY BUT IT IS 30% OR SOMETHING.
- [01:02:17.400]OF COURSE THE REAL ANSWER IS LESS THAN 1% OF OUR BUDGET AND I
- [01:02:28.000]THINK AGAIN IT SUGGESTS WHAT AN INACCURATE CONVERSATION WE HAVE
- [01:02:33.000]ABOUT FOREIGN POLICY AND INCOMPLETE CONVERSATION.
- [01:02:35.967]AT THE HEART THE PROBLEM IS WHEN YOU THINK OF IT AS A CHOICE,
- [01:02:40.367]BETWEEN BEING ENGAGED IN THE REST OF THE WORLD AND TAKING
- [01:02:43.367]CARE OF OUR BUSINESS AT HOME, I THINK THAT IS A DANGEROUS WAY OF
- [01:02:48.934]APPROACHING THE SUBJECT BECAUSE IT IS NOT A CHOICE, YOU DON'T
- [01:02:51.867]GET TO MAKE THAT CHOICE.
- [01:02:53.100]WE LIVE IN THE WORLD WHETHER YOU WANT TO BE THERE OR NOT, AND
- [01:02:56.233]SECOND OF ALL, WHAT WE DO GLOBALLY AFFECT WHAT'S WE DO AT
- [01:03:01.567]HOME AND VICE VERSA, AS WE'RE SEEING WITH CONGRESS THIS WEEK.
- [01:03:05.800]>> I'VE SAVED ONE QUESTION FOR LAST, BUT BEFORE I ASK THAT
- [01:03:11.100]QUESTION, LET ME INVITE EVERYONE HERE TONIGHT TO RETURN TO THE
- [01:03:16.867]CENTER FOR THE NEXT THOMPSON FORUM LECTURE ENTITLED "WHO
- [01:03:21.600]STOLE THE AMERICAN DREAM BY HEADRICK SMITH" ON WEDNESDAY,
- [01:03:27.500]NOVEMBER 6th AT 7:00.
- [01:03:30.266]THE QUESTION IS: YOU MENTIONED A GROWING GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS AT
- [01:03:35.033]A TIME WHEN THE MIDDLE CLASS IN AMERICA IS GETTING SQUEEZED.
- [01:03:39.800]IS THERE A RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE TWO?
- [01:03:42.433]I'LL LET YOU ANSWER THAT AND THAT WILL BE A WONDERFUL SEGUE
- [01:03:46.834]TO SMITH'S LECTURE AT THE NEXT THOMPSON FORUM NEXT MONTH.
- [01:03:52.533]>> ALL RIGHT, WELL SINCE WE'RE DOING PUBLIC SERVICE
- [01:03:55.467]ANNOUNCEMENTS, I WILL SAY I'LL GIVE YOU A SNEAK PREVIEW OF MY
- [01:04:03.867]NEW POLITICO MAGAZINE AND ONE OF THE ARTICLES WE'RE WORKING ON
- [01:04:07.934]FOR THE VERY FIRST ISSUE, WHICH WILL BE OUT IN A FEW WEEKS, IS
- [01:04:13.266]THE RISE OF THE ROBOT ECONOMY AND HOW IS THAT GOING TO AFFECT
- [01:04:17.467]THE AMERICAN MIDDLE CLASS AND AMERICA MORE BROADLY, AND I
- [01:04:22.667]THINK IT RAISES VERY PROVOCATIVE QUESTIONS THAT WILL APPLY TO
- [01:04:27.667]THOSE WHO EXPECT RISING STANDARDS OF LIVING, BOTH
- [01:04:31.934]GLOBALLY WITH THE GROWING MIDDLE CLASS AND ALSO HERE IN THE
- [01:04:35.433]UNITED STATES.
- [01:04:36.300]IS IT REASONABLE TO EXPECT THAT WE CAN CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
- [01:04:41.467]EXTRAORDINARY KIND OF JOBS AND GROWTH IN OUR ECONOMIES THAT WE
- [01:04:45.333]HAD OVER THE PREVIOUS CENTURY OF INDUSTRIALIZATION AT A TIME WHEN
- [01:04:50.934]THE NEW AUTOMATION, THE NEW AGE OF SMART MACHINES IS REALLY ON
- [01:04:54.500]US AND GUESS WHAT?
- [01:04:55.734]THE NEXT SET OF ROBOTS IS NOT JUST GOING TO BE TAKING JOBS
- [01:04:58.633]FROM FACTORY WORKERS OR FROM UNSKILLED LABOR, THEY ARE MAKING
- [01:05:04.166]A ROBOT ANESTHESIOLOGIST, THAT IS A SIX-FIGURE JOB THAT THE
- [01:05:09.000]ROBOT IS GOING TO TAKE OVER.
- [01:05:11.533]THEY ARE -- THEY HAVE ROBOTS NOW THAT CAN WASH YOUR HAIR, GIVE
- [01:05:16.700]YOU YOUR FAST FOOD BURGER, FULFILL YOUR ORDER.
- [01:05:20.700]BUT THEY ALSO HAVE I THINK WE'RE COMING TO A PHASE WHEN BIG DATA
- [01:05:27.467]AND SMART MACHINES AND THE OVERALL AUTOMATION OF OUR
- [01:05:33.333]ECONOMY REALLY IS GOING TO MAKE STRUCTURAL CHANGES THAT CALL IN
- [01:05:37.967]TO QUESTION THE FUTURE OF A MIDDLE CLASS HERE IN THE UNITED
- [01:05:42.533]STATES AS WELL AS INTERNATIONALLY IN SOME PRETTY
- [01:05:46.600]SIGNIFICANT WAYS THAT WE HAVEN'T SEEN OVER THE LAST FEW
- [01:05:50.667]GENERATIONS.
- [01:05:51.200]SO I'M NOT A PESSIMIST, IN FACT BY NATURE I'M VERY MUCH A GLASS
- [01:05:55.400]HALF FULL PERSON, TECHNOLOGY HAS ALSO PROVIDED SOLUTIONS TO MANY
- [01:05:59.934]OF OUR CHALLENGES IN RECENT YEARS, AND I THINK THIS NORTH
- [01:06:04.867]AMERICAN ENERGY BOOM THAT I MENTIONED IS A GOOD EXAMPLE
- [01:06:08.433]WHERE JUST A FEW YEARS AGO IT WOULD HAVE BEEN UNTHINKABLE TO
- [01:06:12.734]TALK ABOUT THE UNITED STATES BEING ENERGY INDEPENDENT, TO
- [01:06:16.367]TALK ABOUT THE GROWTH OF AMERICAN INDUSTRY THAT WOULD
- [01:06:23.333]FLOW FROM THIS OUTPOURING OF OUF NATURAL GAS.
- [01:06:32.233]I'M NOT CONVINCED THAT WE'RE ON THE STRAIGHT LINE TO THE ROBOT
- [01:06:36.734]OVER LORDS TAKING AWAY OUR JOBS, I THINK THERE ARE STRUCTURAL
- [01:06:45.066]CHANGES WHICH CALL IN QUESTION AND PERHAPS SUGGEST WE'RE HEADED
- [01:06:47.667]FOR A PERIOD OF EVEN MORE ECONOMIC INEQUALITY THAN THE
- [01:06:52.600]PERIOD WE JUST HAVE BEEN THROUGH.
- [01:06:54.700]AND THAT IS GOING TO PUT NEW STRESSES AND NEW STRAINS ON A
- [01:06:58.066]POLITICAL SYSTEM THAT CLEARLY IS PROVING ITSELF TO BE NOT SUPER
- [01:07:01.600]RESILIENT WHEN IT COMES TO HANDLING STRESSES AND STRAINS.
- [01:07:06.467]I THANK YOU AGAIN FOR THESE TERRIFIC QUESTIONS, AND I'M
- [01:07:09.667]LOOKING FORWARD TO MY RETURN TO NEBRASKA.
- [01:07:12.367]>> THANK YOU VERY MUCH.
- [01:07:13.967][ APPLAUSE ]
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