Second Tuesday at 9 — Aug. 12, 2015

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08/12/2025 Added

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Nebraska Extension Meteorologist Eric Hunt shares an update on the weather as we approach the end of summer, including impacts on 2025 yield estimates, drought improvement, vegetative health, and how this fall may be reminiscent of 2010.

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[00:00:00.000]All right, good morning.
[00:00:03.020]Welcome to the August edition
[00:00:04.770]of the second Tuesday at nine.
[00:00:06.720]I'm Eric Hunt from University
[00:00:08.080]of Nebraska Extension. Nine o'clock
[00:00:09.660]central, eight o'clock mountain
[00:00:11.060]time. Thank you for listening
[00:00:12.490]in this morning.
[00:00:14.420]Started off with, we have a
[00:00:16.030]special field day coming up in
[00:00:17.780]Fillmore County on August 25th.
[00:00:20.120]I'm hoping to actually attend
[00:00:21.270]at least some of this in person.
[00:00:22.560]Jordan Aldrich will be talking
[00:00:24.800]about soil health and cover
[00:00:26.660]crops and some other ways of
[00:00:28.720]managing weeds.
[00:00:29.940]And my understanding is there's
[00:00:31.740]going to be a prime rib lunch
[00:00:33.250]at Charlie's Pub afterward. Let
[00:00:35.310]me get rid of this.
[00:00:36.540]Okay, so just in terms of, this
[00:00:44.120]was,
[00:00:44.420]actually, I'm sorry, this was
[00:00:45.750]from a while back. Here's the
[00:00:48.060]most recent 30-day departure
[00:00:49.850]precipitation.
[00:00:50.820]So it has been very, very wet
[00:00:52.260]here across a lot of the
[00:00:53.400]northern plains and
[00:00:54.820]particularly here across a lot
[00:00:55.840]of the western Corn Belt.
[00:00:57.140]And with the exception of just
[00:00:58.680]parts of southwest Iowa, most
[00:01:00.430]of Iowa's has been extremely
[00:01:02.190]wet here in the last four to
[00:01:04.210]six weeks.
[00:01:05.120]It also extends into good
[00:01:06.210]portions of eastern Nebraska. A
[00:01:07.770]couple of areas in here maybe
[00:01:09.360]have been sneaky dry.
[00:01:10.400]But, you know, again, we had
[00:01:11.550]some pretty significant
[00:01:12.530]precipitation in some of these
[00:01:13.670]areas back in,
[00:01:14.420]late June. So we're not
[00:01:16.010]necessarily like in significant
[00:01:17.540]drought conditions here.
[00:01:18.680]At least not this time.
[00:01:20.580]We have been a little bit dry
[00:01:21.990]here across portions of the
[00:01:23.340]Sandhills. Panhandle a bit more
[00:01:24.920]mixed.
[00:01:25.400]Again, I would take a little
[00:01:26.640]bit of these precipitation surpluses
[00:01:28.280]with a little grain of salt.
[00:01:29.660]Again, we do have,
[00:01:30.840]there are known issues with,
[00:01:32.330]particularly with radar
[00:01:33.580]estimated precipitation
[00:01:34.920]in the front range and the very
[00:01:36.600]western part of the high plains.
[00:01:38.600]So some of this is probably a
[00:01:39.520]little bit overdone.
[00:01:40.340]But suffice to say, it's been a
[00:01:42.010]much better summer across the
[00:01:43.290]Panhandle than it was last year.
[00:01:44.420]at this time.
[00:01:45.580]Looking at soil moisture percentiles.
[00:01:49.160]So again, most of the state of
[00:01:51.090]Nebraska is quite wet.
[00:01:52.520]Now again, I think the, this
[00:01:54.480]was from about a week ago. Iowa
[00:01:56.110]had been a little bit drier the
[00:01:57.430]previous week.
[00:01:58.240]So I'd anticipate this actually
[00:01:59.800]looking a lot more blue after
[00:02:01.180]the recent precipitation.
[00:02:02.740]Same story here in Wisconsin.
[00:02:04.580]We had tremendous flooding over
[00:02:06.750]the weekend in parts of southeastern
[00:02:09.030]Wisconsin, particularly right
[00:02:10.130]around Milwaukee.
[00:02:11.640]Maybe a little bit drier across
[00:02:12.940]the very eastern side of the
[00:02:14.080]Corn Belt. But for the most
[00:02:15.200]part, though,
[00:02:15.760]most of the region is not
[00:02:18.200]dealing with any major drought
[00:02:19.800]stress.
[00:02:20.400]There are pockets of south
[00:02:22.170]central Nebraska are a bit, are
[00:02:25.110]still doing a drought. But I
[00:02:26.380]think in terms of the recent,
[00:02:27.970]you know, precipitation, they
[00:02:28.920]have at least a little bit of
[00:02:30.600]topsoil moisture to work with.
[00:02:32.000]Drought monitor. So the last
[00:02:35.080]time I did a webinar, the
[00:02:36.240]drought monitor showed quite a
[00:02:37.690]bit of abnormal dryness and
[00:02:38.780]some drought here across the
[00:02:40.140]central and western Corn Belt.
[00:02:41.880]Nebraska at that time was still
[00:02:43.350]a bit of an epicenter of
[00:02:44.640]drought for the central U. S.
[00:02:46.450]And we have seen tremendous
[00:02:48.010]improvement across the state.
[00:02:50.080]There are pork portions of the
[00:02:51.580]panhandle and portions of south
[00:02:53.200]central Nebraska that have not
[00:02:54.760]really had much improvement in
[00:02:56.320]the last two months. But for
[00:02:57.810]the most part, though, we have
[00:02:59.440]seen tremendous improvement
[00:03:00.940]here across this region.
[00:03:02.680]Iowa basically right now is
[00:03:03.740]free and clear of everything.
[00:03:05.040]We've seen improvement in
[00:03:06.510]Illinois. We've seen
[00:03:07.300]improvements in Indiana. And I
[00:03:08.600]would probably just say that
[00:03:10.290]the fact that it was relatively
[00:03:12.120]dry going into the early middle
[00:03:13.950]portion of summer was probably
[00:03:15.800]the only thing maybe preventing
[00:03:17.700]some of the Midwest dealing
[00:03:19.330]with significant flooding
[00:03:20.990]problems this summer.
[00:03:22.680]Versus we've had just like I
[00:03:23.840]showed you earlier, we've had
[00:03:25.130]just tremendous precipitation
[00:03:26.490]here across portions of northeastern
[00:03:28.090]Nebraska and certainly getting
[00:03:29.430]into Iowa. So I think some of
[00:03:31.140]the reasons that we are really
[00:03:32.670]bullish on yields this year is
[00:03:34.330]that we were a bit dry to start
[00:03:35.870]the year. I think if we had
[00:03:37.380]been super wet all year going
[00:03:38.770]into the summer, we would be
[00:03:40.060]dealing with a lot more issues.
[00:03:41.720]Areas I've seen the biggest
[00:03:43.250]improvements here would be kind
[00:03:45.070]of just north of Albion, Elgin
[00:03:46.800]area where we've had basically
[00:03:48.550]a four category improvement in
[00:03:50.380]two months.
[00:03:51.840]So again, hydrologic whiplash
[00:03:53.320]is definitely a thing. We
[00:03:54.610]definitely have seen that so
[00:03:55.920]far this summer.
[00:03:56.920]In terms of rangeland
[00:03:58.970]conditions, veg dry shows
[00:04:00.400]relatively okay conditions for
[00:04:02.590]most of the state of Nebraska.
[00:04:04.900]Reasonably good conditions here
[00:04:06.430]across the southern plains.
[00:04:07.900]This isn't as good as it looked
[00:04:09.290]earlier this summer.
[00:04:10.480]But in general, especially here
[00:04:12.310]across the northern plains,
[00:04:13.950]conditions are much better than
[00:04:15.690]they were a year ago.
[00:04:17.040]Particularly the difference up
[00:04:18.960]in South Dakota and western
[00:04:20.600]North Dakota is relatively good.
[00:04:21.000]And even some improvement in
[00:04:23.890]Wyoming. Again, there are parts
[00:04:26.320]and portions of the panhandle
[00:04:27.820]that I still think are a bit on
[00:04:29.260]the stress side. But yeah, much
[00:04:31.150]better than a year ago.
[00:04:32.640]In terms of record yields, so
[00:04:34.740]again, this is not the most
[00:04:36.000]recent quick drive map. I've
[00:04:37.820]showed this a couple of
[00:04:39.150]different places. So I put this
[00:04:41.320]out in Market Journal last week.
[00:04:43.660]And you know, this is maybe a
[00:04:44.850]little bit easier viewing of it.
[00:04:46.310]But these are basically what
[00:04:47.510]the projected corn and soybean
[00:04:48.870]yields were from last week.
[00:04:50.160]I mean, they are more or less
[00:04:52.310]projecting a national corn
[00:04:53.950]yield of 188 bushels an acre
[00:04:56.350]and a pretty strong soybean
[00:04:58.180]yields as well.
[00:04:59.560]And if you look at quick drive,
[00:05:01.820]so which quick drive basically
[00:05:04.110]is the combination of satellite
[00:05:06.710]reflectance of vegetation
[00:05:08.120]health.
[00:05:08.800]So it shows that NDVI, the
[00:05:10.150]enhanced vegetation index, and
[00:05:12.160]also combines it with a
[00:05:13.100]precipitation index to kind of
[00:05:14.730]give you some assessment of how
[00:05:16.360]conditions are.
[00:05:17.560]So essentially, it's showing
[00:05:19.120]that, you know,
[00:05:20.160]Conditions are wet of an
[00:05:21.090]average. You could interpret
[00:05:22.450]this as meaning that vegetation
[00:05:23.870]is probably certainly pretty
[00:05:25.320]lush, likely pretty healthy.
[00:05:26.640]And, you know, we have several
[00:05:28.290]states that are likely to be
[00:05:29.700]over 200 bushels an acre, at
[00:05:31.550]least according to StoneX, they're
[00:05:33.460]likely to be over 200 bushels
[00:05:35.310]an acre.
[00:05:36.040]With the brass coming in at 205
[00:05:38.210]on corn and soybean at 63 bushels
[00:05:40.380]an acre, this would tie the
[00:05:41.990]soybean yield that was set in
[00:05:43.680]2021 at 63 bushels an acre.
[00:05:46.400]That 205, if that actually
[00:05:48.600]would verify.
[00:05:50.160]Later, you know, by early this
[00:05:52.190]next year, if we could verify
[00:05:53.410]that, that would not only be a
[00:05:54.680]record, that would obliterate
[00:05:55.840]the old record for the state,
[00:05:57.400]which is sitting at 191.
[00:05:59.160]I believe that will become just
[00:06:00.400]short of record corn yields in
[00:06:01.590]Illinois, and I believe that
[00:06:02.780]would be just a little bit on
[00:06:03.910]the record side in Iowa.
[00:06:05.160]Again, I am concerned that some
[00:06:07.200]places over here have probably
[00:06:09.120]been just a little too wet of
[00:06:10.830]late.
[00:06:11.420]I'll show you here in a second
[00:06:12.890]some of the reasons I'm a
[00:06:14.120]little skeptical of some of
[00:06:15.540]those highest in yield
[00:06:16.730]projections coming to fruition.
[00:06:20.160]In terms of heat units, though,
[00:06:21.670]most everybody is probably at
[00:06:22.920]or maybe slightly above where
[00:06:24.220]you would normally be for
[00:06:25.320]growing degree days.
[00:06:26.520]And we were a little short
[00:06:27.710]earlier in the summer.
[00:06:29.000]So two months ago, we were a
[00:06:30.320]little short here across some
[00:06:31.720]of the region on heat units.
[00:06:33.260]We generally have had warmer
[00:06:34.530]overnight temperatures on
[00:06:35.750]average, at least fairly
[00:06:37.250]frequently here in the last
[00:06:38.110]couple of months.
[00:06:39.080]And we've had a couple of just
[00:06:40.610]what we call pulses of heat.
[00:06:42.100]So we have generally caught up
[00:06:43.820]or maybe or just slightly above
[00:06:45.410]where we would be on heat units.
[00:06:47.300]But regardless, I don't think
[00:06:48.940]there's any major.
[00:06:50.340]Risk for anybody in the corn
[00:06:51.530]belt of not having their crop
[00:06:52.990]finished off before we have our
[00:06:54.570]average first freeze date.
[00:06:56.260]So what I'm showing you here is
[00:06:58.380]the temp and precipitation quad
[00:07:00.280]charts looking for the summer,
[00:07:02.380]so the months of June and July
[00:07:04.230]and for the left is the corn
[00:07:05.910]belt as a whole from basically
[00:07:07.850]central Nebraska through Ohio
[00:07:09.890]and northeast Kansas up into
[00:07:11.750]southeast North Dakota.
[00:07:13.860]And then on the right is this
[00:07:15.120]for Nebraska as a whole.
[00:07:16.400]So you'll notice in both cases,
[00:07:17.500]you know, we're kind of the
[00:07:18.440]upper right quadrant warm and
[00:07:19.450]wet being.
[00:07:20.340]The case but for the corn belt
[00:07:22.040]as a whole, I just want to
[00:07:23.480]point out that, you know, we
[00:07:25.410]are certainly wet of an average.
[00:07:27.880]I mean, we are not many summers
[00:07:29.620]to this point that have
[00:07:30.900]actually been wetter than what
[00:07:32.660]we've been so far in 2025,
[00:07:34.670]which is certainly not what I
[00:07:36.290]think anybody was projecting
[00:07:38.000]six months ago.
[00:07:39.300]I wasn't necessarily bullish on
[00:07:41.280]us being over here, but I was
[00:07:43.020]not projecting us to been here.
[00:07:45.200]I think I was thinking that we
[00:07:46.740]would probably be somewhere in
[00:07:48.530]this rain closer to 20.
[00:07:50.320]17 and maybe you're like 20, 21
[00:07:53.210]over here somewhere.
[00:07:54.920]Yeah, right here.
[00:07:55.980]You'll notice, though, that the
[00:07:57.720]years where we have generally
[00:07:59.220]been below trend, you know, not
[00:08:00.900]too surprising.
[00:08:01.880]We have a lot of years in this
[00:08:03.290]upper left quadrant where we
[00:08:04.800]warm and dry, you know, 2012,
[00:08:06.990]88, 02, 06, 2022.
[00:08:09.600]You know, these are years we
[00:08:11.120]generally were below trend or
[00:08:12.720]maybe just right at trend.
[00:08:14.340]You'll notice, though, too,
[00:08:16.730]that being too wet is also not
[00:08:18.800]necessary.
[00:08:20.160]It's really a good thing.
[00:08:20.660]So 2010 was very wet, wetter
[00:08:22.580]than this year.
[00:08:23.500]I'll talk about later why 2010
[00:08:25.210]may be a useful analog.
[00:08:26.340]And then, of course, 1993,
[00:08:28.410]where we just had insane
[00:08:29.670]amounts of precipitation here
[00:08:31.320]across a lot of this region.
[00:08:33.040]So there is definitely a thing
[00:08:34.290]as too much water.
[00:08:35.180]You'll notice our best years,
[00:08:36.700]they don't tend to be the wettest
[00:08:38.290]years.
[00:08:38.840]They tend to be years where we
[00:08:40.280]get just enough precipitation,
[00:08:41.970]usually pretty timely
[00:08:43.110]precipitation.
[00:08:44.140]And also we keep those
[00:08:45.150]temperatures down.
[00:08:46.240]That means that we are getting
[00:08:47.930]regular intrusions of cooler
[00:08:49.680]air.
[00:08:50.160]So while years like, again, I
[00:08:52.580]mentioned in an article I wrote
[00:08:55.030]last week that, you know, 2025
[00:08:57.940]has some similarities to 1992
[00:08:59.560]in the sense that both years
[00:09:01.400]were rather dry at times in
[00:09:03.170]spring and early summer.
[00:09:05.120]And then we saw a shift over
[00:09:06.590]toward wet late June and July.
[00:09:08.480]And, you know, maybe that way
[00:09:10.100]times the rest of summer.
[00:09:11.600]We have definitely seen that.
[00:09:14.120]But the biggest difference was
[00:09:15.810]1992 was significantly cooler
[00:09:18.240]than this year.
[00:09:19.100]You know, again, that was year.
[00:09:20.160]After Pinatubo, something that
[00:09:21.920]that probably was probably
[00:09:23.360]contributed somewhat to the
[00:09:24.910]cooler temperatures.
[00:09:26.300]But regardless, I mean, we're
[00:09:28.130]running a full five, almost six
[00:09:29.960]degrees warmer than where we
[00:09:31.600]were in 1992.
[00:09:33.220]So those overnight lows were
[00:09:34.710]much lower that summer.
[00:09:36.100]So I think if we actually had
[00:09:37.520]temperatures that were closer
[00:09:39.130]to here with maybe just
[00:09:40.460]slightly less precipitation, I
[00:09:42.130]do think that that 188 number
[00:09:44.320]would probably verify maybe
[00:09:46.090]even be over that.
[00:09:49.100]The last time we talked, I
[00:09:50.140]mentioned, you know, the Grand
[00:09:51.470]Forks early 95 degree rule.
[00:09:53.020]So, again, we had a heat wave
[00:09:54.640]in North Dakota back in May.
[00:09:56.300]So the years where we had
[00:09:57.500]historically, at least since
[00:09:59.140]the early 1980s, where we had
[00:10:01.040]had temperatures hit that
[00:10:02.360]threshold early in the season,
[00:10:03.980]you know, July, we were pretty
[00:10:05.600]warm across the north central U.S.
[00:10:07.740]And, you know, while it wasn't
[00:10:09.300]necessarily cool for most of
[00:10:10.580]this region, we were a little
[00:10:11.970]bit warm.
[00:10:12.620]Iowa, Nebraska, Illinois, you
[00:10:14.230]know, the heat was more
[00:10:15.350]displaced further toward the
[00:10:16.700]east.
[00:10:17.200]I wouldn't say that this was a
[00:10:18.250]particularly.
[00:10:19.100]Useful predictor this year in
[00:10:20.570]terms of temperatures, it was
[00:10:22.030]certainly not a good predictor
[00:10:23.530]for a drought.
[00:10:24.500]We've been about the exact
[00:10:25.840]opposite of that for a lot of
[00:10:27.450]this region the last six weeks
[00:10:28.750]or so.
[00:10:29.300]The other reason, in addition
[00:10:31.150]to the temperatures being
[00:10:32.720]probably a bit warm, that I'm
[00:10:34.500]not just super bullish on those
[00:10:36.360]high end yields.
[00:10:37.640]We've also had a lot of cloud
[00:10:39.020]cover in this region of the
[00:10:40.340]country the last, say, six
[00:10:41.780]weeks, maybe two months.
[00:10:43.340]We've also had a lot of
[00:10:44.170]humidity.
[00:10:44.760]So thanks to Eric Snodgrass for
[00:10:46.700]providing this figure.
[00:10:49.100]He shared this with me a couple
[00:10:50.370]of days ago.
[00:10:51.020]This is looking at the solar
[00:10:52.270]radiation on these last 45 days.
[00:10:54.100]So, again, a lot of cloud cover
[00:10:55.220]at times.
[00:10:55.720]We've also had, you know, at
[00:10:56.930]times we've had some smoke
[00:10:57.940]coming in from the north and
[00:10:59.010]northeast.
[00:10:59.760]So, again, this is basically
[00:11:01.070]showing that our radiation has
[00:11:02.380]been a little bit reduced.
[00:11:03.660]Now, again, I don't think this
[00:11:05.470]is enough to bring our yields
[00:11:07.090]down to the 175 level or
[00:11:08.780]anything like that.
[00:11:10.260]But I do think this would be
[00:11:11.700]potentially enough to keep us
[00:11:13.380]from hitting that 188 mark.
[00:11:15.480]I do anticipate us being much
[00:11:17.160]closer to 182.
[00:11:19.100]182 to 184 on corn than the 188
[00:11:21.630]numbers.
[00:11:22.240]In terms of relative humidity,
[00:11:24.290]we also have been very humid so
[00:11:26.170]far this summer.
[00:11:27.500]So what I'm showing you here on
[00:11:28.870]the left is a plot of surface
[00:11:30.190]humidity.
[00:11:30.820]And, you know, again, most of
[00:11:32.470]the central U.S. has been more
[00:11:34.310]humid than average,
[00:11:35.250]particularly here across the
[00:11:36.460]Great Plains region.
[00:11:37.500]And a lot of this, now, again,
[00:11:39.390]these date periods are not
[00:11:40.930]identical.
[00:11:41.840]Apologize for that.
[00:11:43.760]But I just wanted to point out
[00:11:44.990]that especially for the, you
[00:11:46.270]know, the first half of summer,
[00:11:47.860]we really had strong.
[00:11:49.100]Strong high pressure, what we
[00:11:50.880]kind of call expansive purbuta
[00:11:52.370]high,
[00:11:52.800]meaning that we were getting
[00:11:54.170]that clockwise flow around this,
[00:11:55.900]you know, broader area of high
[00:11:56.950]pressure.
[00:11:57.380]So we really had very open
[00:11:58.850]access to the Gulf.
[00:12:00.120]You know, we had pretty good
[00:12:01.430]southerly flow coming into low
[00:12:02.850]levels of the atmosphere,
[00:12:04.240]relatively potent low-double
[00:12:06.080]jet at times.
[00:12:07.040]So we really were helping, you
[00:12:09.150]know, get an atmosphere that
[00:12:11.070]was more moist than average
[00:12:12.760]across this region.
[00:12:14.220]I also would point out that we
[00:12:15.420]were, you know, very wet here
[00:12:16.710]across the southern plains into
[00:12:18.100]the southeast.
[00:12:19.100]So we had a lot of extra, you
[00:12:21.600]know, transpiration being
[00:12:23.810]released from plants.
[00:12:26.020]We had extra evaporation going
[00:12:27.460]on.
[00:12:27.760]So, I mean, we, you know, that
[00:12:28.770]moisture that we were getting
[00:12:29.700]from the Gulf, we were not
[00:12:30.770]being,
[00:12:31.160]it was not being robbed at all
[00:12:33.110]by this region.
[00:12:34.460]And so I think that we probably
[00:12:36.220]were getting extra moisture evaporation
[00:12:38.680]at times earlier in the summer.
[00:12:40.740]So I think that there's just a
[00:12:42.300]lot of reasons we have had
[00:12:43.660]higher levels of humidity this
[00:12:45.350]summer so far.
[00:12:46.360]And again, there are a lot of
[00:12:47.490]diseases.
[00:12:48.100]You know, diseases.
[00:12:49.100]You know, my understanding, as
[00:12:50.370]I mentioned before, there are
[00:12:51.560]diseases like pretty much any
[00:12:52.550]type of condition.
[00:12:53.280]Certainly, higher humidity is,
[00:12:56.180]you know, benefits fungal
[00:12:58.480]diseases.
[00:12:59.600]We definitely have had a lot of
[00:13:01.210]tar spot.
[00:13:01.880]We've had a lot of southern
[00:13:02.900]rust in places.
[00:13:03.660]We've had white mold on soybean.
[00:13:05.000]So we've had a lot of
[00:13:05.900]conditions that I think have
[00:13:07.300]been very optimal for more
[00:13:08.650]disease issues.
[00:13:09.660]Now, again, I know a lot of
[00:13:11.080]people, you know, have sprayed
[00:13:12.830]at least once or twice for
[00:13:14.130]these types of diseases.
[00:13:15.700]So I'm not necessarily
[00:13:17.010]expecting there to be, you know,
[00:13:19.140]a significant loss in yield
[00:13:20.450]because of the diseases.
[00:13:21.900]But I do think there could be
[00:13:22.980]some yield loss because of
[00:13:24.030]diseases, you know,
[00:13:25.020]again, because of the relative
[00:13:26.470]persistence of humidity.
[00:13:27.800]And again, like southern rust
[00:13:29.630]is one type of disease that
[00:13:31.180]generally likes the heat.
[00:13:32.940]So we have thankfully not had
[00:13:34.260]what I would call just any
[00:13:35.410]really prolonged stretches of
[00:13:36.850]heat.
[00:13:37.340]We certainly have had stretches
[00:13:38.850]where it had been warmer at
[00:13:40.040]night with higher humidity
[00:13:41.310]levels.
[00:13:41.880]And then these, you know,
[00:13:42.930]pulses of heat had probably
[00:13:43.930]been somewhat favorable for its
[00:13:45.140]expansion.
[00:13:45.760]A quick look at soil
[00:13:47.190]temperatures across the state.
[00:13:48.860]Nebraska, mostly mid-60s to low-70s.
[00:13:51.800]So again, these are about where
[00:13:53.300]we would think you would be
[00:13:54.710]this time of year.
[00:13:55.500]Again, we have not necessarily
[00:13:57.120]had any prolonged stretches
[00:13:58.630]where the soil temperatures
[00:13:59.930]have been significantly on the
[00:14:01.310]high end.
[00:14:01.920]Looking, kind of getting into
[00:14:04.640]the outlook portion.
[00:14:06.760]So in the short term, I do
[00:14:08.710]think what we're likely to see
[00:14:10.300]as we head into next week is
[00:14:12.120]this ridge probably anchoring
[00:14:13.430]itself over the southwestern
[00:14:14.680]United States.
[00:14:15.460]Now, again, that is a bit of a
[00:14:16.710]different projection that we
[00:14:17.960]were looking at.
[00:14:18.820]You know, four or five days ago,
[00:14:20.420]late last week, I think there
[00:14:21.860]was more anticipation of this
[00:14:23.320]ridge being a little bit more
[00:14:24.710]anchored central east.
[00:14:26.240]And that was going to probably
[00:14:27.350]really crank up the heat.
[00:14:28.440]I think we're going to crank up
[00:14:29.710]the heat later this week.
[00:14:31.000]We're likely to bring, you know,
[00:14:32.480]as this ridge comes back toward
[00:14:33.830]the west, we get back a little
[00:14:35.110]bit more of a northwesterly
[00:14:36.320]flow.
[00:14:36.860]We are likely to probably get a
[00:14:37.960]cold front to move through the
[00:14:39.070]region as we head toward the
[00:14:40.100]end of the weekend.
[00:14:40.960]I do think that's going to
[00:14:41.830]bring a chance of storms,
[00:14:42.760]certainly the northern plains
[00:14:43.820]and upper Midwest.
[00:14:44.660]I do think even portions of
[00:14:47.480]central east.
[00:14:48.820]And eastern Nebraska, western
[00:14:50.090]Iowa, probably even maybe
[00:14:51.170]extreme northeast Kansas is
[00:14:52.290]going to have pretty good
[00:14:53.270]chances of rain early this next
[00:14:54.780]week.
[00:14:55.220]And also some chances for some
[00:14:56.730]cooler temperatures to come
[00:14:58.190]back in.
[00:14:58.800]Now, the European extended
[00:15:00.970]forecast was showing, you know,
[00:15:02.880]maybe a bit drier signals we
[00:15:04.640]had toward the end of the month.
[00:15:06.920]So, again, there's been some
[00:15:08.760]disagreement in the models here
[00:15:10.680]in the last couple of days as
[00:15:12.370]exactly how August is going to
[00:15:14.080]finish out.
[00:15:15.060]The artificial intelligence
[00:15:16.740]runs are showing, you know, or
[00:15:18.540]not.
[00:15:18.780]Not necessarily showing any
[00:15:19.920]prolonged period of dryness.
[00:15:21.160]Certainly once you get Kansas-Nebraska
[00:15:23.150]border northward through the
[00:15:24.630]north central region.
[00:15:25.960]So, you know, there is a
[00:15:27.140]possibility we could see things
[00:15:28.680]go over a little bit drier.
[00:15:30.140]But I think the more likely
[00:15:32.020]scenarios that we kind of keep
[00:15:33.780]the faucet on, certainly the I-80
[00:15:36.330]corridor north for the next 10
[00:15:38.510]days.
[00:15:39.120]So, again, if you're not
[00:15:40.340]wanting more precipitation in
[00:15:41.770]Iowa, I don't necessarily have
[00:15:43.250]the best news for you.
[00:15:44.480]I think that it's probably
[00:15:45.820]likely to continue for the next
[00:15:47.400]couple of weeks.
[00:15:48.580]At least there's going to be a
[00:15:49.460]chance of it continuing for the
[00:15:50.580]next couple of weeks.
[00:15:51.300]The good news, though, is that
[00:15:53.050]I do think the heat, I do
[00:15:54.440]certainly anticipate there's
[00:15:56.040]going to be some more hot days
[00:15:57.590]coming up.
[00:15:58.400]I do not think we are looking
[00:15:59.680]at any really prolonged
[00:16:00.860]stretches of heat.
[00:16:01.880]I do not think we're looking at
[00:16:03.150]a repeat of what we saw two
[00:16:04.300]years ago around August 18th,
[00:16:05.750]you know, through the 24th.
[00:16:07.440]Not looking at that coming in,
[00:16:09.000]it looks like.
[00:16:09.860]CPC is three to four week
[00:16:11.050]temperature outlook.
[00:16:12.320]So, again, they're showing warm
[00:16:13.680]east, warm west, and, you know,
[00:16:15.080]kind of favoring maybe, you
[00:16:16.210]know, some more systems coming
[00:16:18.030]into.
[00:16:18.460]The north central United States.
[00:16:19.620]So, again, this was issued last
[00:16:21.430]Friday.
[00:16:22.040]So, they are probably showing,
[00:16:23.720]you know, more ridging east and
[00:16:25.100]west, more troughs maybe
[00:16:26.320]getting into southern Canada,
[00:16:27.940]maybe the north central U.S.
[00:16:29.540]So, I do think that this would
[00:16:30.960]indicate that there's going to
[00:16:32.450]be chances of getting more
[00:16:33.890]precipitation in this region as
[00:16:35.240]we head into Labor Day.
[00:16:36.440]And also probably not going to
[00:16:37.980]turn off the faucet.
[00:16:39.200]I, this certainly, particularly
[00:16:41.460]the, you know, the western side
[00:16:43.550]of this, I'm a little bit
[00:16:45.110]skeptical that northern
[00:16:46.690]Illinois and Wisconsin,
[00:16:48.340]will be below average.
[00:16:49.340]Possibly we could stay below
[00:16:50.780]average here on the eastern
[00:16:52.160]side of the Great Lakes.
[00:16:53.520]Looking at sea surface
[00:16:55.930]temperature anomalies right now.
[00:16:57.740]So, you know, the area where we'd
[00:16:59.260]look for ENSO, Central and
[00:17:00.390]Eastern Equatorial Pacific, you
[00:17:01.960]know, we are essentially kind
[00:17:03.690]of in what we call neutral
[00:17:05.050]conditions.
[00:17:06.020]You know, we've had a little
[00:17:07.290]bit more pronounced easterly
[00:17:08.600]wind flow here, a little bit
[00:17:09.860]more westerly wind anomalies
[00:17:11.160]here closer towards South
[00:17:12.320]America.
[00:17:13.020]So, some warmer water off the
[00:17:14.340]coast of South America, but,
[00:17:15.720]you know, cooler here.
[00:17:17.000]So, we were essentially.
[00:17:18.220]Effectively neutral.
[00:17:19.260]And I, the expectation is that
[00:17:21.300]we are likely to probably stay
[00:17:22.510]neutral.
[00:17:23.060]Maybe there's a slight chance
[00:17:24.890]we get into La Nina as we head
[00:17:26.550]into later in the fall.
[00:17:27.940]El Nino seems to be a
[00:17:29.710]relatively lower probability.
[00:17:33.020]Again, pretty warm here across
[00:17:34.530]a lot of the Atlantic, although
[00:17:36.040]certainly not as warm as last
[00:17:37.380]year.
[00:17:37.860]So, that's one of the reasons,
[00:17:39.070]you know, this area being a
[00:17:40.090]little bit cooler is one of the
[00:17:41.200]reasons we haven't seen as many
[00:17:42.370]storms develop.
[00:17:43.220]There's other reasons we haven't
[00:17:44.900]seen that as well.
[00:17:45.980]But I just want to point out
[00:17:47.400]how warm.
[00:17:48.100]The North Pacific's been.
[00:17:49.100]So, earlier in the, you know,
[00:17:50.890]back in the spring, you know,
[00:17:52.760]we were talking about the
[00:17:54.040]forecast for the summer.
[00:17:55.740]I said, you know, what happens
[00:17:56.940]up here is going to be very
[00:17:57.880]crucial.
[00:17:58.360]I said, you know, this is
[00:17:59.540]likely to be cooler.
[00:18:00.620]You know, if this was also cool,
[00:18:02.360]then the risk of having ridging
[00:18:03.990]being prominent somewhere
[00:18:05.470]between, you know, the Cascades
[00:18:07.480]and the Great Lakes is going to
[00:18:09.060]be relatively high.
[00:18:10.360]And one of the reasons we haven't
[00:18:12.140]maintained a strong ridge
[00:18:13.590]anywhere in the central U.S.
[00:18:15.510]for any period of time is, I
[00:18:16.480]think, because we have had.
[00:18:17.980]You know, we've had warmer
[00:18:18.490]water.
[00:18:18.680]We've had atmosphere.
[00:18:19.440]We generally maintain some flow
[00:18:22.030]in the atmosphere.
[00:18:23.820]So, that's really helped push
[00:18:25.380]this warmer water further east.
[00:18:27.140]And, again, we've had a lot of
[00:18:28.690]ridging over Japan and Korea
[00:18:30.140]this summer.
[00:18:31.020]So, we've had very, very warm
[00:18:32.060]water temperatures here.
[00:18:33.100]You know, I'll talk about 2010
[00:18:35.580]a little bit later.
[00:18:36.940]But just one key difference in
[00:18:38.190]2010 is by this time in 2010,
[00:18:40.240]we were basically already in a
[00:18:41.510]full-blown La Nina.
[00:18:42.580]That is absolutely not the case
[00:18:44.480]at the present time.
[00:18:45.800]There's then some forecasts.
[00:18:47.860]You know, again, not really
[00:18:48.840]showing any strong signal.
[00:18:49.740]There might be a little better
[00:18:50.860]chance of La Nina.
[00:18:51.700]You know, there's one model
[00:18:53.170]that is showing us maybe being
[00:18:54.710]weakly in El Nino.
[00:18:55.840]But, again, the consensus right
[00:18:57.620]now is probably remaining about
[00:18:59.240]neutral.
[00:18:59.920]Not any, probably remaining
[00:19:01.590]that way through the winter.
[00:19:03.160]CBC's most recent drought was
[00:19:05.660]released at the end of July.
[00:19:08.180]You know, again, they are
[00:19:09.450]showing drought development
[00:19:10.890]being possible or even likely
[00:19:12.250]across portions of the central
[00:19:13.720]plains.
[00:19:14.300]You know, interestingly enough,
[00:19:16.330]they're not showing any.
[00:19:17.740]We signal for drought here
[00:19:18.940]across the southern plains and
[00:19:20.380]getting into the mid-south
[00:19:21.600]region.
[00:19:22.160]Given that it's been pretty dry
[00:19:23.910]down here, you know, in the
[00:19:25.510]last, you know, say, month to
[00:19:27.310]six weeks while it's been wetter
[00:19:28.850]up here.
[00:19:29.300]You know, just because of that
[00:19:31.120]and recent precedent and, you
[00:19:33.190]know, I think what you see in
[00:19:34.620]the, some of the outlooks,
[00:19:36.340]I do think there's going to be
[00:19:37.430]a potential to see some drought
[00:19:38.620]conditions develop here across
[00:19:39.870]this region.
[00:19:40.580]We've also been very dry across
[00:19:42.250]New England the last couple of
[00:19:43.970]months.
[00:19:44.520]So, I'm just really kind of
[00:19:45.930]curious.
[00:19:46.600]I mean, I think they're
[00:19:47.200]expecting.
[00:19:47.620]Precipitation to be above
[00:19:49.100]average as fall, which is why
[00:19:50.640]they didn't paint this area in
[00:19:51.760]with the drought development.
[00:19:52.920]But again, the rain is going to
[00:19:54.650]have to turn on relatively soon
[00:19:55.630]here in upstate New York and
[00:19:56.700]New England, or we will be
[00:19:58.330]seeing drought there.
[00:19:59.400]Also, we've been sneaky dry
[00:20:00.940]here across portions of the
[00:20:02.430]Sandhills in South Dakota, so I
[00:20:04.520]would anticipate there may be
[00:20:05.860]being some drought pressure
[00:20:06.940]coming back into this region if
[00:20:08.580]we don't, you know, start
[00:20:10.510]getting more regular
[00:20:11.280]precipitation in that area.
[00:20:12.420]CBC shows below average
[00:20:14.020]favorite across most of the
[00:20:15.860]Great Plains region.
[00:20:17.500]Through the fall, wet Eastern
[00:20:19.420]Corn Belt and Mid-Atlantic
[00:20:20.850]region, warm pretty much
[00:20:22.140]everywhere in the U.S.
[00:20:23.560]European actually has a little
[00:20:26.420]different, again, they're in
[00:20:28.460]pretty good agreement with the
[00:20:29.760]temperatures being above
[00:20:30.860]average.
[00:20:31.380]And they're above, they're, you
[00:20:32.830]know, in somewhat agreement
[00:20:34.100]with temperatures, sorry, with
[00:20:35.620]precipitation being below
[00:20:36.710]average here across parts of
[00:20:37.980]the Northern Plains.
[00:20:38.920]But they are showing a bit of a
[00:20:40.420]wet signal across the, you know,
[00:20:42.290]portion of the Central Plains
[00:20:43.800]and Western Corn Belt, which I
[00:20:45.850]have to add is, you know,
[00:20:47.380]very different what they've
[00:20:48.810]been, they've been, you know,
[00:20:50.500]for most of the summer, they
[00:20:51.920]were kind of on this, you know,
[00:20:53.760]path of going to be warm and
[00:20:55.110]dry,
[00:20:55.460]come hell or high water, you
[00:20:57.020]know, the warm is generally
[00:20:58.580]verified, but the dry is
[00:20:59.940]definitely not.
[00:21:01.100]And they, you know, this
[00:21:02.420]outlook that was released
[00:21:03.760]earlier in the month does show
[00:21:05.310]that there may be some chances
[00:21:06.780]of getting better precipitation
[00:21:08.580]than we've had in recent falls
[00:21:10.360]in this area.
[00:21:11.340]And again, while I'm not,
[00:21:13.290]certainly not wishing for a
[00:21:15.120]significant harvest delay,
[00:21:17.260]it would be very nice to
[00:21:18.720]actually go into the cold
[00:21:20.350]season, this, you know, this
[00:21:22.660]coming cold season, having a
[00:21:23.810]full profile of soil moisture.
[00:21:25.440]We have not had that in, at
[00:21:26.580]least in most Nebraska in
[00:21:27.690]several years.
[00:21:28.580]So it'd be nice to actually
[00:21:29.680]have that for a change.
[00:21:30.780]But as I mentioned, recent
[00:21:33.000]falls have been pretty warm and
[00:21:35.090]dry.
[00:21:35.720]So if you look at just where we,
[00:21:36.930]you know, the last five fall
[00:21:38.080]swings, so this decade to this
[00:21:39.450]point, 2020 through 2024,
[00:21:41.540]we have been generally dry and
[00:21:43.470]warm pretty much across the
[00:21:45.010]entire U.S. with the exception
[00:21:46.720]of places,
[00:21:47.140]where we've had a lot of
[00:21:48.520]tropical activity, Florida, and
[00:21:50.440]then, you know, again, this,
[00:21:51.200]you know,
[00:21:51.460]district of North Carolina,
[00:21:52.830]where we've had a lean last
[00:21:54.020]year with record precipitation,
[00:21:55.700]and generally warm just pretty
[00:21:57.280]much everywhere in the lower 48.
[00:21:59.100]And the reason for that, you
[00:22:00.610]know, if you look at the last
[00:22:02.190]five years, where the jet
[00:22:03.490]stream has been,
[00:22:04.560]well, we've had, this is
[00:22:05.850]showing anomalies of the zolder
[00:22:07.430]wind.
[00:22:07.920]So, you know, these cooler
[00:22:09.270]colors here means that we've
[00:22:10.600]had lower wind speeds than
[00:22:11.830]average,
[00:22:12.440]higher wind speeds than average
[00:22:14.090]here.
[00:22:14.560]So basically, we've had a
[00:22:15.610]displaced northward,
[00:22:17.020]north Pacific jet, meaning that
[00:22:18.630]the storm track has remained
[00:22:20.940]generally north of lower 48 in
[00:22:23.030]the fall.
[00:22:23.800]It's certainly at least like
[00:22:25.060]the early mid-portion of the
[00:22:26.320]fall in recent years.
[00:22:27.460]You know, again, some of this
[00:22:28.720]is just a climate change signal,
[00:22:30.160]you know, with the, you know,
[00:22:31.740]we've warmer, a lot warmer up
[00:22:33.300]here than we used to be in the
[00:22:34.710]early mid-portion of the fall.
[00:22:36.640]So that temperature gradient
[00:22:37.840]isn't quite as strong as it
[00:22:38.870]used to be.
[00:22:39.520]You know, these jets are thermally
[00:22:40.920]driven, meaning that, you know,
[00:22:42.380]that we probably have our
[00:22:43.430]stronger temperature gradients
[00:22:44.830]a bit further north than we
[00:22:45.930]used to in the fall.
[00:22:46.900]So that's one reason, I think,
[00:22:48.580]that we've seen this
[00:22:49.380]displacement of a north Pacific
[00:22:51.260]jet,
[00:22:51.640]even though I would say that's
[00:22:52.890]probably not the only reason.
[00:22:54.280]And again, just for the state
[00:22:56.210]of Nebraska, you know,
[00:22:57.540]we have tended to be pretty
[00:22:58.510]warm in the falls in recent
[00:22:59.480]years.
[00:22:59.880]We have not had many cool falls
[00:23:01.560]so far in the 21st century,
[00:23:03.420]and the expectation is not for
[00:23:05.350]one this year.
[00:23:06.480]But, you know, again, if we
[00:23:07.850]keep getting these troughs
[00:23:09.130]coming in,
[00:23:09.760]you know, we may not
[00:23:10.820]necessarily be as warm in the
[00:23:12.530]fall as we've been in recent
[00:23:13.750]years.
[00:23:16.780]I mentioned earlier that 2010
[00:23:19.210]might be a useful analog.
[00:23:20.760]And, you know, again, this
[00:23:23.090]summer has not been remotely
[00:23:24.310]identical to 2010,
[00:23:25.620]but there are some similarities.
[00:23:27.160]You know, in particular, we've
[00:23:29.400]had more ridging across the
[00:23:31.540]east this summer than what we,
[00:23:33.500]you know, that we've probably
[00:23:34.540]had in recent years.
[00:23:35.340]So 2010, we had quite a bit of
[00:23:37.340]ridging in the middle upper
[00:23:39.000]atmosphere, you know, across
[00:23:40.510]the eastern U.S.
[00:23:41.380]We were generally drier than
[00:23:42.380]average across a lot of the mid-south
[00:23:43.970]through the up and through New
[00:23:45.360]England.
[00:23:45.660]That's kind of been the case.
[00:23:46.660]Particularly in the last six
[00:23:48.440]weeks or so, much wetter signal
[00:23:50.030]here across the western and
[00:23:51.260]central Corn Belt,
[00:23:52.160]similar to this year.
[00:23:53.700]So notice, like, for example,
[00:23:55.410]Des Moines, you know, 2025,
[00:23:57.500]the last, you know, 40 days
[00:23:59.060]from July 1st through August 9th
[00:24:00.790]was wettest on record.
[00:24:02.040]2010 was fourth wettest.
[00:24:03.780]So, again, I think that there
[00:24:05.000]are some similarities into, you
[00:24:06.890]know,
[00:24:07.040]how the last six weeks have
[00:24:08.150]transpired is similar to 2010.
[00:24:10.060]So I do think that 2010 is
[00:24:12.410]possibly a useful analog.
[00:24:14.260]I can't really think of any.
[00:24:16.540]Any other analogs right now
[00:24:18.080]that I think really stand out
[00:24:19.620]as being extremely useful.
[00:24:21.160]21 might be slightly useful,
[00:24:23.780]but, you know, this year is not
[00:24:25.140]really shaped up like 21 in a
[00:24:28.270]real meaningful way.
[00:24:29.400]For the fall as a whole in 2010,
[00:24:32.600]we were a little drier across
[00:24:35.340]the, you know, across Nebraska.
[00:24:37.040]So, again, the European model
[00:24:38.060]is showing that there was maybe
[00:24:39.280]some chance of above average
[00:24:40.410]precipitation in this region.
[00:24:41.940]So that certainly would not be
[00:24:42.940]in agreement with it, you know,
[00:24:44.680]kind of a mix of wet and dry
[00:24:46.420]across most of Nebraska.
[00:24:46.420]So, again, I think, you know,
[00:24:56.780]barring, you know, getting
[00:24:58.260]tropical storm activity,
[00:24:59.120]I do think that there is going
[00:25:00.560]to be a risk of, you know,
[00:25:01.900]getting some drought to develop
[00:25:02.900]down in this region of the
[00:25:03.670]country.
[00:25:04.120]You know, again, we were a bit
[00:25:05.590]wetter here across the
[00:25:06.670]northeast.
[00:25:07.440]So that is, you know, I think
[00:25:08.940]that is one indication that,
[00:25:10.440]you know, if recent precedent
[00:25:12.340]or at least like the forecast
[00:25:13.590]plus this actually were to come
[00:25:14.950]to fruition,
[00:25:15.660]we would probably, you know, we
[00:25:15.950]would be a little bit wetter.
[00:25:16.300]We would probably reduce that
[00:25:17.570]drought risk in this region a
[00:25:18.790]good bit.
[00:25:19.360]And, again, we were pretty warm
[00:25:21.180]across a lot of the central U.S.
[00:25:23.170]in the fall.
[00:25:24.000]So, again, I am more confident
[00:25:25.670]in us staying relatively warm
[00:25:27.200]for most of fall.
[00:25:28.340]I am a little bit less
[00:25:29.230]confident on any sort of
[00:25:30.270]precipitation signal.
[00:25:31.520]Turns out what is going on just,
[00:25:33.420]you know, from an ocean and
[00:25:34.780]atmospheric standpoint in 2010.
[00:25:37.300]So what we had that year, so,
[00:25:39.170]again, now in contrast to this
[00:25:41.150]year, we really just have just
[00:25:42.720]truly inso neutral conditions.
[00:25:44.200]We had a full-blown lot.
[00:25:46.180]I mean, at this point in 2010
[00:25:47.370]or, you know, by early
[00:25:48.090]September.
[00:25:48.680]So, you know, cold central east
[00:25:50.650]and, you know, cold off the
[00:25:52.330]coast of California.
[00:25:53.840]Still pretty warm here.
[00:25:55.480]But, again, this, you know,
[00:25:56.470]this is similar.
[00:25:57.180]This is certainly not.
[00:25:58.840]So, again, I would take the
[00:26:01.310]2010 analog with a grain of
[00:26:03.790]salt.
[00:26:04.500]I do think there's a
[00:26:05.200]possibility that we may see
[00:26:06.170]similarities.
[00:26:06.880]But I certainly am not
[00:26:08.390]anticipating, you know, this
[00:26:10.450]fall to look exactly like 2010.
[00:26:13.180]But what we saw that year,
[00:26:15.140]especially in the first.
[00:26:16.060]You know, like, especially mid-September
[00:26:17.980]through a lot of October, early
[00:26:19.320]November, you know, we had more
[00:26:20.920]ridging, more southwestward
[00:26:23.860]displacement, the Pacific high
[00:26:25.160]closer toward Japan, a lot of
[00:26:27.030]troughing, north Pacific,
[00:26:28.060]particularly here off the Gulf
[00:26:29.480]of Alaska, ridge here, a lot of
[00:26:31.640]the central, you know, rocky
[00:26:33.300]mountain region toward Great
[00:26:34.650]Lakes, we had ridging, deep trough
[00:26:36.370]in the northeast.
[00:26:37.420]So, again, you know, wetter
[00:26:38.890]signal there, you know, a
[00:26:40.190]little bit more mixed
[00:26:41.230]precipitation across parts of
[00:26:42.710]central U.S., drier signal
[00:26:44.290]across the southeast.
[00:26:45.800]So, again, this type of pattern
[00:26:47.910]would favor, you know,
[00:26:49.510]certainly being warm and
[00:26:51.070]probably not super, super wet
[00:26:53.030]for most people.
[00:26:54.360]Certainly, you know, I think
[00:26:56.150]south of I-90, I don't think
[00:26:57.960]that would be a particularly
[00:26:59.580]wet signal for most of us.
[00:27:01.300]Now, again, this, what I'm
[00:27:03.340]showing you here, if this doesn't
[00:27:04.890]make any sense to you, that
[00:27:06.390]just means you're a normal
[00:27:07.790]human being.
[00:27:08.800]But this, what I'm looking at
[00:27:10.500]here is just the velocity
[00:27:11.630]potential to see where we had
[00:27:13.090]most arising motion.
[00:27:14.440]And this is.
[00:27:15.760]This is kind of an indication
[00:27:17.090]where the MGO was most active
[00:27:18.450]in the fall of 2010.
[00:27:19.960]And, you know, again, we had
[00:27:21.900]more sinking motion across the
[00:27:23.830]eastern Pacific, more rising
[00:27:25.820]motion here across Australia,
[00:27:27.790]Indonesia.
[00:27:28.780]That means that we were
[00:27:30.190]spending more time in phases
[00:27:32.000]four and three, four and five
[00:27:34.160]that fall.
[00:27:34.760]We are starting to see
[00:27:35.890]indications that we may or may
[00:27:37.450]be a little bit more bullish in,
[00:27:39.140]you know, phases four and five
[00:27:40.770]with the MGO.
[00:27:41.760]So we may be more active in
[00:27:43.120]this region of the world.
[00:27:44.660]You know, again, that does.
[00:27:45.720]It does tend to have a, an
[00:27:46.930]impact on where you put ridges
[00:27:48.310]and troughs.
[00:27:49.120]And I would just say that, you
[00:27:50.870]know, especially once you get
[00:27:52.700]into later September, October,
[00:27:54.750]you know, an active MGO in that
[00:27:56.930]region of the world does tend
[00:27:59.120]to favor a pattern.
[00:28:00.520]It looks a bit more like this
[00:28:01.960]with troughing off, you know,
[00:28:03.650]south of Alaska, more ridging
[00:28:05.280]here, troughing here.
[00:28:06.860]So again, that, that may be a
[00:28:08.270]signal that we may be headed
[00:28:09.590]toward a pattern that looks a
[00:28:10.970]bit more like that.
[00:28:12.220]But I'm not overly confident
[00:28:14.200]that we are going.
[00:28:15.780]To spend the entire fall in
[00:28:17.660]phases four and five of the MGO.
[00:28:20.240]Just for a quick reference,
[00:28:21.840]since we are getting, you know,
[00:28:23.100]in deeper into August, some of
[00:28:24.530]us will have to start being
[00:28:25.750]concerned about freezes here in
[00:28:27.240]about another month,
[00:28:28.300]particularly, you know, getting
[00:28:29.950]into the Dakotas, Western
[00:28:31.330]Nebraska, certainly the higher
[00:28:32.770]elevations out here.
[00:28:34.160]We do tend to start having
[00:28:35.570]light freezes in the second
[00:28:36.920]half of September.
[00:28:38.100]So the Midwest Regional Climate
[00:28:40.100]Center has a very good frost
[00:28:41.780]freeze date tool.
[00:28:43.120]So you can look at trends.
[00:28:45.520]You can look at the first
[00:28:46.390]freeze date and you can, you
[00:28:47.300]know, do it by temperature.
[00:28:48.400]So this was 32, which you can
[00:28:50.250]go down to 28 and 24.
[00:28:52.020]Just kind of look at the, you
[00:28:53.110]know, the truly killing frost.
[00:28:54.520]And it'll show by, you know,
[00:28:56.140]average for your county based
[00:28:57.760]on historical records.
[00:28:59.280]So it goes here for Sioux
[00:29:00.280]County, which is a far
[00:29:01.230]northwestern county here in
[00:29:02.430]Nebraska.
[00:29:03.000]We tend to have our average
[00:29:04.250]first fall freeze in September
[00:29:05.720]27th.
[00:29:06.400]You need to get closer to southeastern
[00:29:07.530]Nebraska.
[00:29:07.940]It tends to be closer toward
[00:29:08.880]the middle of October.
[00:29:09.780]So again, we tend to have our
[00:29:11.010]first freeze, you know, a
[00:29:12.190]little bit later in September
[00:29:13.470]up in this region.
[00:29:15.360]And given that we are not real
[00:29:17.090]short on GDDs up here,
[00:29:18.480]I'm not super concerned about
[00:29:21.070]not getting the heat units that
[00:29:23.760]we need before we finish out
[00:29:25.920]the fall.
[00:29:26.780]To summarize, we have had a
[00:29:28.880]weather and expected summer.
[00:29:31.440]Again, I was not on the bandwagon
[00:29:33.300]for a doomsday drought across
[00:29:34.960]this region,
[00:29:35.880]but I did think that there was
[00:29:37.180]going to be drought pressure,
[00:29:38.700]particularly in the western
[00:29:39.930]side of the Corn Belt Central
[00:29:41.140]Plains.
[00:29:41.660]That did not come to fruition.
[00:29:43.000]We've been much wetter than
[00:29:44.250]average across.
[00:29:45.200]A lot of especially the last
[00:29:46.370]six weeks or so.
[00:29:47.160]We've also been cloudier, more
[00:29:48.640]humid than average.
[00:29:49.760]I do think yields are likely to
[00:29:51.530]be good,
[00:29:52.100]but I do think those higher in
[00:29:54.120]yields from some of the
[00:29:55.730]analysts,
[00:29:56.620]I do think those will be harder
[00:29:58.000]to achieve,
[00:29:58.640]particularly if we maintain
[00:30:01.420]more cloud cover and more
[00:30:03.550]disease pressure in the next
[00:30:05.140]three to four weeks.
[00:30:06.340]But anybody that is just
[00:30:08.140]slightly short on moisture,
[00:30:10.420]I do think there is going to be
[00:30:11.660]chances of getting the moisture
[00:30:13.060]you need.
[00:30:15.040]The upside is we are likely to
[00:30:17.330]see more heat in the next two
[00:30:18.990]or three weeks.
[00:30:19.720]But as has been the story this
[00:30:21.690]summer,
[00:30:22.380]we have not seen prolonged heat
[00:30:24.390]anywhere in this region so far
[00:30:26.570]this summer,
[00:30:27.340]at least for maximum
[00:30:28.520]temperatures.
[00:30:29.220]We've definitely been warm
[00:30:30.170]overnight, particularly the
[00:30:31.260]eastern Corn Belt.
[00:30:31.980]But I don't think we're likely
[00:30:33.750]to look,
[00:30:34.360]we're not looking at any major,
[00:30:35.820]you know, 10-day heat waves
[00:30:37.340]coming in.
[00:30:37.940]Heat's going to be in pulses.
[00:30:39.060]I do think if you are listening
[00:30:41.230]to this in Kansas and to the
[00:30:43.050]southern portion of the Plains,
[00:30:45.140]the faucet may turn off here
[00:30:46.400]the last part of the month.
[00:30:47.900]I do think there's a chance it's
[00:30:49.110]going to stay on the Corn Belt,
[00:30:50.330]though.
[00:30:50.860]I do not see a lot of our
[00:30:52.220]region, certainly central
[00:30:54.090]Nebraska into Illinois,
[00:30:55.900]I do not see us going over just
[00:30:57.250]bone dry through the rest of
[00:30:58.560]the month.
[00:30:59.260]Recent precedent would suggest
[00:31:01.320]we will be warmer than average
[00:31:03.210]in fall and not super wet.
[00:31:05.020]2010 may be useful analog, but
[00:31:07.090]don't expect it to be identical.
[00:31:08.960]And again, I'm not seeing signs
[00:31:11.390]yet for an early fall freeze in
[00:31:13.640]the Corn Belt.
[00:31:14.920]I'm not seeing signs yet for an
[00:31:14.920]early fall freeze in the Corn
[00:31:14.920]Belt.
[00:31:14.980]I'm not seeing signs yet for an
[00:31:14.980]early fall freeze in the Corn
[00:31:14.980]Belt.
[00:31:15.000]And I have not really, to be
[00:31:16.860]honest, I have not spent a
[00:31:18.160]whole lot of time taking a
[00:31:19.220]really good look
[00:31:20.420]at what we may be in for this
[00:31:21.510]winter.
[00:31:21.840]But, you know, at this point,
[00:31:24.230]it is really pretty early to
[00:31:26.300]kind of have any meaningful
[00:31:28.200]forecast
[00:31:29.340]for the winter other than we're
[00:31:30.900]going to have it.
[00:31:31.920]So that's my story for the
[00:31:33.740]month.
[00:31:34.500]I will, if you have any
[00:31:36.020]questions, you are welcome to
[00:31:38.120]contact me at the email address,
[00:31:40.220]ehunt2 at unl.edu.
[00:31:42.240]Again, if you're in Nebraska,
[00:31:43.510]you can find me on Marketplace.
[00:31:44.980]Journal on Saturday mornings,
[00:31:45.980]the CropWatch podcast, and nsco.unl.edu.
[00:31:50.920]Thanks for listening.

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Second Tuesday at 9 — Aug. 12, 2015

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