Second Tuesday at 9 — June 10, 2025

CropWatch Author

06/10/2025 Added

14 Plays

Description

In the June 2025 Second Tuesday at 9, Nebraska Extension Meteorologist Eric Hunt discusses how variable rainfall has impacted crop and pasture health in Nebraska, emergence of wheat streak mosaic virus, and ongoing challenges from delayed planting in the eastern Corn Belt. Hunt also examines short-term moisture outlooks, long range summer forecasts, and historical climate patterns that may indicate how July and August will play out.

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[00:00:00.000]okay well good morning it's
[00:00:03.460]nine o'clock central eight o'clock
[00:00:05.900]mountain time time for another
[00:00:07.640]second Tuesday night webinar
[00:00:10.010]let's start off today by just
[00:00:12.340]reminding everybody that there
[00:00:14.720]is a plant and pest diagnostic
[00:00:16.530]clinic here on East Campus at
[00:00:18.330]University of Nebraska so if
[00:00:20.720]you
[00:00:20.880]suspect having diseases in your
[00:00:22.960]fields you are more than
[00:00:24.500]welcome to take a couple clips
[00:00:26.520]of the
[00:00:26.780]plant and mail them in to 448
[00:00:29.120]Plant Science Hall Kyle Broderick
[00:00:31.420]and his team will take good
[00:00:32.820]care
[00:00:32.940]of you you do not have to be
[00:00:35.350]from Nebraska to submit the
[00:00:38.200]form and the samples we gladly
[00:00:40.760]take
[00:00:41.160]your samples from anywhere
[00:00:42.830]around the country also we do
[00:00:44.570]have a weed management field
[00:00:46.310]day
[00:00:46.620]coming up Wednesday June 25th
[00:00:48.660]at the South Central Ag Lab and
[00:00:50.400]Clay Center so if you're
[00:00:52.180]looking for maybe new creative
[00:00:53.840]and innovative ways to manage
[00:00:55.420]weeds I think there will be
[00:00:56.760]a quite a few good talks there
[00:00:59.110]to demonstrate weed control for
[00:01:01.760]sorghum and soybean
[00:01:03.440]all right let's just have a
[00:01:05.700]quick review of where we were
[00:01:08.190]in the spring so in the climatological
[00:01:11.500]spring so we're considering
[00:01:13.170]March 1st May 31st here we were
[00:01:15.450]warm for pretty much the entire
[00:01:17.100]country now I'll show you here
[00:01:18.600]in a second that we've recently
[00:01:20.160]been on the cool side across a
[00:01:21.680]lot
[00:01:21.820]of the north central part of
[00:01:23.220]the U.S. but for spring as a
[00:01:24.790]whole we were relatively warm
[00:01:26.310]with
[00:01:26.740]much warmer than average
[00:01:28.380]temperatures being more focused
[00:01:30.380]on the in Texas and the east
[00:01:32.150]coast
[00:01:32.500]majority of the country
[00:01:33.660]actually was probably a little
[00:01:35.170]bit above average for
[00:01:36.210]precipitation some
[00:01:37.380]cases were quite wet so we were
[00:01:38.990]very wet across the Ohio Valley
[00:01:40.740]very very wet across some of
[00:01:42.260]the
[00:01:42.340]southern plains including
[00:01:43.380]Oklahoma which has been
[00:01:44.310]especially wet here the last
[00:01:45.410]couple of months
[00:01:46.120]and because of some recent
[00:01:47.390]precipitation we actually ended
[00:01:49.050]up relatively wet across a good
[00:01:50.520]portion of northern plains as
[00:01:52.910]well there's an area kind of
[00:01:54.450]right along highway 136
[00:01:56.720]kind of between 136 and i-80
[00:01:59.080]that has generally been below
[00:02:00.790]average so far this spring and
[00:02:02.400]at times
[00:02:02.800]has been significantly below
[00:02:04.090]average and I think that may be
[00:02:05.390]an area to pay more attention
[00:02:06.530]to as
[00:02:06.840]we head deeper in the summer
[00:02:08.310]and drier across portions of
[00:02:09.490]the western United States
[00:02:10.840]for recent precipitation we do
[00:02:13.350]have you know a good portion of
[00:02:15.740]the country with significant
[00:02:17.540]precipitation so the area that's
[00:02:19.010]been the absolute would wet us
[00:02:20.320]in an absolute sense
[00:02:21.300]Oklahoma here in the southwestern
[00:02:23.050]Missouri where we've had some
[00:02:24.550]places in Oklahoma with over
[00:02:26.700]20 inches of precipitation
[00:02:28.700]pretty easily going back to
[00:02:29.850]April 10th but you'll notice
[00:02:31.660]though that
[00:02:31.940]we've had parts of the northern
[00:02:33.220]plains with over 10 inches of
[00:02:34.470]moisture and good portions of
[00:02:35.820]Nebraska
[00:02:36.220]have received over eight inches
[00:02:37.790]of moisture so a lot of the
[00:02:38.980]sand hills actually has had
[00:02:40.420]pretty
[00:02:40.720]significant precipitation here
[00:02:42.430]in the last 30 to 40 days which
[00:02:44.350]is great news for the pastures
[00:02:45.940]and for trying to help improve
[00:02:47.800]some long-standing drought
[00:02:49.590]conditions you'll notice so
[00:02:51.380]there are
[00:02:52.040]pockets where we've been pretty
[00:02:53.310]dry some parts of northwestern
[00:02:54.540]Kansas southwestern Nebraska
[00:02:55.770]have had
[00:02:56.680]generally less than four inches
[00:02:58.460]of moisture and we've had
[00:02:59.850]pockets here in Illinois and
[00:03:01.630]parts of
[00:03:01.960]Iowa and parts of Minnesota
[00:03:03.900]that also have been pretty dry
[00:03:05.950]so far this spring and if we
[00:03:08.320]take a look
[00:03:08.740]at it from a departure from
[00:03:09.950]normal you notice a very very
[00:03:11.330]wet here across portions of the
[00:03:12.790]Dakotas
[00:03:13.220]I do think some of the rating
[00:03:15.140]issues on the spring wheat
[00:03:16.980]probably is related to how wet
[00:03:19.210]excessively
[00:03:19.700]wet that area was earlier in
[00:03:21.370]the spring that may be causing
[00:03:23.190]some development delays and we've
[00:03:25.350]also
[00:03:25.680]relatively dry across the state
[00:03:25.990]of Minnesota and we've had
[00:03:26.260]pockets here in Illinois and
[00:03:26.490]parts of
[00:03:26.660]Montana in Minnesota where we
[00:03:28.180]also have some spring wheat so
[00:03:29.680]I think the kind of combination
[00:03:31.140]of some places being too dry
[00:03:32.920]and too wet is probably at
[00:03:34.580]least one of the culprits for
[00:03:36.560]some
[00:03:36.860]of the poor ratings on the
[00:03:38.540]spring wheat we've had some
[00:03:40.470]relatively poor ratings on
[00:03:42.260]winter wheat across
[00:03:43.400]portions of Nebraska and I do
[00:03:45.090]think this area down here the
[00:03:46.550]southwestern corner where we do
[00:03:48.440]have a bit more wheat is
[00:03:49.950]probably somewhat of a culprit
[00:03:52.070]we are a little bit you know
[00:03:53.940]above average
[00:03:54.600]across portion of panhandle
[00:03:55.740]last 60 days but I do think
[00:03:56.640]that's probably one of the culprits
[00:03:56.640]for
[00:03:56.640]that sort of mask out how dry
[00:03:58.080]it was here earlier in the
[00:03:59.390]spring and that did lead to
[00:04:00.820]some issues here
[00:04:02.600]across the southern panhandle
[00:04:03.830]with wheat just you know
[00:04:04.870]talking some of the educators I
[00:04:06.010]know
[00:04:06.300]they're talking about issues
[00:04:07.910]there and you know again some
[00:04:09.450]of that is also a reflection of
[00:04:11.070]how
[00:04:11.320]dry and warm it was last fall
[00:04:12.720]so that crop generally got off
[00:04:14.210]to a relatively poor start
[00:04:15.660]and the earlier part of the
[00:04:17.200]spring was not particularly
[00:04:18.880]helpful recent precipitation
[00:04:20.720]has probably been useful but it's
[00:04:22.700]probably also going to be a
[00:04:24.240]little bit late for a really
[00:04:25.850]robust
[00:04:26.620]crop we also have been dealing
[00:04:28.430]with a fair amount of wheat
[00:04:30.020]street mosaic virus across the
[00:04:31.960]state of
[00:04:32.100]Nebraska I don't know if that's
[00:04:33.830]been an issue elsewhere in the
[00:04:35.510]country but I you know just
[00:04:37.060]given that there was a lot of
[00:04:38.500]hail last year right around
[00:04:39.970]harvest time hail tends to shatter
[00:04:41.920]those
[00:04:42.100]tillers and you end up with
[00:04:43.540]volunteer wheat that could be
[00:04:45.200]infected with the wheat streak
[00:04:47.020]and if you
[00:04:47.320]get that it can infect your
[00:04:48.580]entire field so I think that
[00:04:49.900]has been a bit more of an issue
[00:04:51.260]this
[00:04:51.660]year than it's been in other
[00:04:53.620]years also the lot of Iowa and
[00:04:55.320]the northern Illinois have been
[00:04:56.600]relatively dry here the last 60
[00:04:58.430]days now again some of that is
[00:04:59.880]a little bit more backloaded we've
[00:05:02.600]been a little bit wetter here
[00:05:04.700]typically in Iowa the last
[00:05:06.680]couple weeks so I think from a
[00:05:08.580]moisture
[00:05:08.920]standpoint I'll show you here a
[00:05:10.290]second I think we're kind of
[00:05:11.500]mostly okay across a lot of the
[00:05:12.920]Corn Belt for at least the time
[00:05:14.420]being and that's been helped by
[00:05:15.980]the coolant average
[00:05:17.070]temperatures
[00:05:17.440]that we've seen across a lot of
[00:05:18.850]the central and eastern U.S.
[00:05:20.430]now there's a bad data point
[00:05:21.840]down
[00:05:22.000]here on Carbondale Illinois but
[00:05:23.980]otherwise we've been we've been
[00:05:25.020]running in some cases more than
[00:05:26.580]six degrees below average
[00:05:28.300]across portions of the central
[00:05:30.330]plains and a pretty wide area
[00:05:32.260]of three to
[00:05:32.820]five degrees below normal here
[00:05:34.270]across the Corn Belt and if we
[00:05:35.710]look at the evaporative demand
[00:05:37.360]drought index which really is
[00:05:39.110]kind of a a proxy for potential
[00:05:40.870]evapotranspiration you know
[00:05:42.870]there's
[00:05:43.180]most of the northern plains has
[00:05:44.740]really been kind of below
[00:05:46.280]average on potential evapotranspiration
[00:05:48.240]so you'll be getting the
[00:05:49.100]moisture you'll be getting
[00:05:50.100]cooler temperatures maybe a few
[00:05:51.280]more
[00:05:51.520]days of cloud cover so that
[00:05:53.060]probably is helping to improve
[00:05:54.890]pasture conditions and it means
[00:05:56.560]meaningful way which is really
[00:05:59.020]good news after a very rough
[00:06:00.770]last part of last season
[00:06:02.580]looking at soil waste percentile
[00:06:04.820]so what I have here on the left
[00:06:06.740]is the most current soil waste
[00:06:08.500]percentiles as of I guess this
[00:06:11.380]would be late Sunday so early
[00:06:14.210]June 9th and going back you
[00:06:17.060]know
[00:06:17.180]compared to four weeks ago and
[00:06:18.350]I did last in this webinar so
[00:06:19.420]we've seen tremendous
[00:06:20.310]improvements here
[00:06:21.200]across a lot of the north
[00:06:22.690]central U.S. and we still have
[00:06:24.230]pockets of Nebraska in the
[00:06:25.600]eastern
[00:06:26.140]South Dakota and pockets of
[00:06:27.750]Illinois pockets of northeastern
[00:06:29.780]North Dakota that are still
[00:06:31.420]pretty
[00:06:31.720]dry but for the most part we
[00:06:32.960]have seen tremendous
[00:06:33.960]improvements here across a lot
[00:06:35.420]of northern plains
[00:06:36.440]and Corn Belt which is good
[00:06:37.920]news that means that you know
[00:06:39.540]we should be seeing some
[00:06:40.870]hopefully some
[00:06:41.740]improvement in our forage and
[00:06:43.500]pasture conditions and we are
[00:06:45.280]certainly giving the corn and
[00:06:47.050]soybean
[00:06:47.640]and sorghum crops a chance at
[00:06:50.120]having a decent season by the
[00:06:52.630]improvement in soil moisture
[00:06:55.200]that
[00:06:55.720]Very, very wet here across the
[00:06:57.730]entire southern plains, mid-south
[00:06:59.760]Ohio Valley region.
[00:07:00.840]So again, we've had some real
[00:07:02.460]strong or serious delays of
[00:07:03.960]planning here across portions
[00:07:05.670]of Indiana and Ohio, southern
[00:07:07.560]portion of Illinois.
[00:07:08.820]I was actually stopped into the
[00:07:10.750]Iowa Public Television Station
[00:07:12.770]to visit with the market-to-market
[00:07:15.000]team last Friday.
[00:07:16.340]And the market specialist was
[00:07:18.680]from kind of east-central
[00:07:20.720]Illinois.
[00:07:22.000]And he was just commenting on
[00:07:23.250]how, you know, if you went 10
[00:07:24.650]miles south of him down here
[00:07:25.800]toward Effingham,
[00:07:26.680]there's been hell getting crops
[00:07:28.660]in this year.
[00:07:29.660]If you went 10 miles north,
[00:07:30.860]they were done, you know, late
[00:07:32.070]April.
[00:07:32.480]So it's just a pretty sharp cutoff
[00:07:34.600]between who's had a lot of
[00:07:36.520]moisture this season and who
[00:07:38.020]hasn't.
[00:07:38.800]But the good news is here in
[00:07:39.810]the last couple of weeks, some
[00:07:40.920]areas that were not getting
[00:07:41.820]much moisture earlier in the
[00:07:42.800]spring haven't even been
[00:07:43.890]getting it.
[00:07:44.600]And that is definitely good
[00:07:46.330]news going forward.
[00:07:47.700]Look at the drought monitor.
[00:07:50.120]It shows that we still have
[00:07:51.040]quite a bit of drought.
[00:07:52.000]We still have drought across
[00:07:52.790]portions of Nebraska.
[00:07:53.520]So we still have about roughly
[00:07:54.730]85% of the state of Nebraska in
[00:07:56.080]drought.
[00:07:56.700]Portions of Illinois,
[00:07:57.610]particularly the northern third
[00:07:58.910]of the state, we still have
[00:07:59.960]some drought pressures.
[00:08:01.120]Some improvements in Iowa, some
[00:08:02.660]drought here across portions of
[00:08:04.140]Minnesota, western part of the
[00:08:05.610]Dakotas.
[00:08:06.200]Again, a lot of this has
[00:08:07.360]improved here in the last few
[00:08:08.650]weeks.
[00:08:09.180]So if you look at the change
[00:08:09.990]map going back eight weeks, we've
[00:08:11.280]seen parts of North Dakota and
[00:08:12.720]South Dakota with three
[00:08:13.880]category improvements.
[00:08:15.360]And I do anticipate probably
[00:08:16.600]seeing a little bit more
[00:08:17.630]improvement across portions of
[00:08:19.040]the Panhandle,
[00:08:19.860]where we did see some
[00:08:20.660]additional.
[00:08:22.000]Very beneficial precipitation
[00:08:23.450]late last week, and we also
[00:08:24.710]have really taken the drought
[00:08:25.760]pressure off down here in the
[00:08:26.840]Southern Plains.
[00:08:27.700]So I think this has been, for
[00:08:29.110]the most part, I think good
[00:08:30.760]news for getting some health of
[00:08:32.600]the wheat.
[00:08:33.400]But it also has probably also
[00:08:34.850]been in some cases in Oklahoma,
[00:08:36.870]probably too wet for the wheat.
[00:08:38.100]So I think it'll be interesting
[00:08:39.810]to see how the recent heavy
[00:08:41.270]precipitation down there plays
[00:08:43.050]out with the wheat.
[00:08:44.320]But the good news, though, is
[00:08:45.550]their pasture conditions have
[00:08:46.750]improved in a pretty meaningful
[00:08:48.010]way.
[00:08:48.380]Speaking of those pasture
[00:08:50.100]conditions.
[00:08:51.160]So this is a VegDry map from
[00:08:53.620]last Monday.
[00:08:54.700]So I did not see an update
[00:08:56.500]yesterday on VegDry.
[00:08:58.340]These numbers I'm showing you
[00:09:00.160]for percent poor, very poor are
[00:09:02.080]from the last week's NAS update,
[00:09:04.130]not this week's.
[00:09:05.340]But regardless, you know, if
[00:09:07.170]you get down here to Oklahoma,
[00:09:09.000]Kansas,
[00:09:09.640]we have a much lower percentage
[00:09:11.680]of pastures that are in poor
[00:09:13.470]and very poor shape compared to,
[00:09:15.760]say, probably a year ago.
[00:09:17.700]We've definitely seen some
[00:09:18.760]improvements across the Dakotas.
[00:09:20.320]Nebraska, we still have over
[00:09:22.210]half of the state currently in
[00:09:24.110]poor, very poor.
[00:09:25.480]But that number has improved a
[00:09:26.670]little bit.
[00:09:27.280]So I do anticipate that we at
[00:09:29.130]least set ourselves up for
[00:09:30.900]having a possibility of having
[00:09:32.990]some decent forest production,
[00:09:35.340]particularly in warm season
[00:09:36.180]grass where we've got some
[00:09:36.930]recent precipitation.
[00:09:37.760]And if we look at grass cast,
[00:09:39.570]if we assume normal
[00:09:40.800]precipitation, again, this was
[00:09:43.000]from about two weeks ago.
[00:09:44.660]I think the new grass cast
[00:09:45.780]should be available here
[00:09:46.770]relatively soon.
[00:09:47.720]But if we have normal
[00:09:48.650]precipitation,
[00:09:49.520]we're actually looking at above
[00:09:50.790]average forest production being
[00:09:52.120]possible here across the
[00:09:53.760]southern plains
[00:09:54.820]and probably looking at above
[00:09:56.230]average forest production here
[00:09:57.610]across the northern plains.
[00:09:59.080]So I think some of our prime
[00:10:00.900]range areas may actually do
[00:10:02.810]fairly well if we can just
[00:10:04.230]manage to get normal
[00:10:04.990]precipitation.
[00:10:05.760]If we end up with below normal
[00:10:07.740]precipitation, which does seem
[00:10:09.800]to be a fairly decent
[00:10:11.230]possibility across most of this
[00:10:12.790]region,
[00:10:13.440]then the areas that are likely
[00:10:15.130]to be robust for forest
[00:10:16.520]production are going to be
[00:10:17.890]significant.
[00:10:18.720]Significantly less.
[00:10:20.480]And if you notice here, there's
[00:10:22.030]parts of southwestern Nebraska
[00:10:23.540]that are likely to be below
[00:10:25.150]average forest production,
[00:10:26.480]even if we end up with
[00:10:27.400]relatively decent precipitation
[00:10:29.000]for the remainder of the year.
[00:10:30.540]Again, this is more of a
[00:10:31.800]reflection of how dry this area
[00:10:33.450]kind of around McCook has been
[00:10:35.160]so far this spring.
[00:10:36.320]Speaking of moisture, though,
[00:10:39.060]we do have pretty good chances
[00:10:41.060]of moisture,
[00:10:42.040]particularly for, I would say,
[00:10:44.310]most of the Corn Belt.
[00:10:45.980]So eastern Nebraska, eastern
[00:10:47.920]Dakotas.
[00:10:48.720]And certainly portions of
[00:10:50.020]northern Iowa and southern
[00:10:51.090]Minnesota probably getting into
[00:10:52.570]Wisconsin.
[00:10:53.260]I do think we have pretty good
[00:10:54.710]chances of picking up
[00:10:55.820]significant moisture here in
[00:10:57.350]the next couple of weeks.
[00:10:58.880]Probably starting Wednesday
[00:11:00.660]night up here across the I-90
[00:11:02.640]corridor.
[00:11:03.480]So maybe even this extreme
[00:11:04.430]portion, northern portions of
[00:11:05.600]Nebraska.
[00:11:06.140]But certainly northern Iowa, southeastern
[00:11:08.180]South Dakota, southern
[00:11:09.300]Minnesota probably getting
[00:11:10.600]Wisconsin here.
[00:11:11.580]Pretty good chances of good
[00:11:12.680]moisture here later this week.
[00:11:14.060]And I think if we get it next
[00:11:15.180]week, we're going to have a
[00:11:16.360]bigger section of the central U.S.
[00:11:18.720]with chances for more
[00:11:19.490]additional moisture.
[00:11:20.440]And if we look at the most
[00:11:22.430]recent European ensemble, the
[00:11:25.060]probability of two inches plus.
[00:11:26.480]Again, we have a good portion
[00:11:27.730]of northern plains and pretty
[00:11:29.070]much the entire Corn Belt from
[00:11:30.470]eastern Nebraska getting into
[00:11:32.350]Indiana.
[00:11:32.700]At least about a 30% chance of
[00:11:34.030]picking up two inches of
[00:11:34.980]moisture.
[00:11:35.480]And a very good chance of
[00:11:36.430]picking up two inches of
[00:11:37.410]moisture here across portions
[00:11:38.710]of the northern Corn Belt.
[00:11:39.960]Likely to be getting drier here
[00:11:41.560]across portions of the high
[00:11:43.040]plains.
[00:11:43.620]Now, this isn't necessarily the
[00:11:44.820]greatest news for the paint
[00:11:45.800]handle, but we could afford it
[00:11:47.190]a little bit more now.
[00:11:48.720]We could here for most of the
[00:11:49.980]last several months.
[00:11:51.140]And drying out down here may
[00:11:52.770]actually be a good thing for
[00:11:54.440]finishing off this wheat crop
[00:11:56.230]down here.
[00:11:57.100]As this is probably starting to
[00:11:58.210]get any closer to harvest time,
[00:11:59.440]drying out would maybe be
[00:12:00.830]beneficial for them.
[00:12:02.200]It's continued very wet here
[00:12:04.090]across Portia, Texas.
[00:12:05.740]And this is maybe not the best
[00:12:07.110]news for people that are trying
[00:12:08.610]to get crops, you know,
[00:12:10.200]finished out or get put in in
[00:12:11.550]terms of finishing up the
[00:12:12.820]planting.
[00:12:13.620]And also, you know, we would
[00:12:15.010]have to start worrying about
[00:12:16.350]just the depths of root
[00:12:17.410]development.
[00:12:18.720]And this portion of the Corn
[00:12:20.040]Belt, if we stay really wet
[00:12:21.350]here through the end of June,
[00:12:22.900]you know, again, if they're
[00:12:24.170]late planting,
[00:12:24.660]if we stay wet, then those
[00:12:25.880]roots are only going to go down
[00:12:27.220]so far.
[00:12:27.740]And I think that could be
[00:12:28.800]problematic as we head later
[00:12:30.070]into the summer.
[00:12:31.000]Getting a little bit deeper in
[00:12:32.540]the crystal ball, finishing out
[00:12:34.270]the month going to early July.
[00:12:36.060]Again, now this was issued late,
[00:12:38.540]this was issued last Friday.
[00:12:40.460]So we are expecting more ridging
[00:12:42.000]to be more prominent here
[00:12:43.200]across a lot of the U.S. in the
[00:12:44.820]next couple of weeks.
[00:12:45.680]That would favor above average
[00:12:47.070]temperatures.
[00:12:48.720]We have been relatively cool
[00:12:49.930]here across this region for the
[00:12:51.220]last two or three weeks.
[00:12:52.340]That is essentially coming to
[00:12:53.780]an end today or tomorrow,
[00:12:55.150]depending on where you're
[00:12:56.290]listening from.
[00:12:57.320]And I do think that we are
[00:12:58.430]probably going to be entering a
[00:12:59.870]more extended period of warmer
[00:13:01.250]than average temperatures that
[00:13:02.790]may persist through a good
[00:13:03.820]portion of July,
[00:13:04.560]particularly along and west of
[00:13:07.090]I-35 and north of I-70.
[00:13:10.000]Likely looking at this point,
[00:13:11.750]they were showing wet favor
[00:13:13.210]across the south.
[00:13:14.400]Again, some of this is probably
[00:13:15.950]a reflection of that trough
[00:13:17.420]will be moving slowly.
[00:13:18.720]Toward the northeast from Texas
[00:13:20.530]into the Midwest here later
[00:13:22.070]this week, which will give us
[00:13:23.260]some decent precipitation down
[00:13:24.230]here.
[00:13:24.540]It should bring more
[00:13:25.510]precipitation here to Illinois,
[00:13:27.080]Indiana and Ohio later this
[00:13:28.350]week.
[00:13:28.800]But I do think that we are
[00:13:29.940]going to have pretty good
[00:13:31.150]chances of moisture across a
[00:13:32.550]lot of the western Corn Belt as
[00:13:33.980]well.
[00:13:34.600]Getting into ENSO, so it's
[00:13:36.780]starting to get into my more
[00:13:38.540]seasonal outlook here.
[00:13:40.540]We are currently in neutral
[00:13:41.810]conditions, and that is neutral
[00:13:43.350]conditions are favored for the
[00:13:44.920]remainder of the summer.
[00:13:46.140]The deeper as we get, the
[00:13:47.610]closer we get.
[00:13:48.720]The fall, the more likely you
[00:13:50.250]are to see La Nina redevelop.
[00:13:51.920]So as we get into the fall,
[00:13:53.560]there is about a roughly equal
[00:13:55.450]chance of La Nina in neutral
[00:13:57.180]conditions being prevalent,
[00:13:59.100]with even maybe about a one in
[00:14:01.020]10 chance of El Nino developing
[00:14:03.420]as we head later into 2025.
[00:14:06.040]So last month I talked about
[00:14:09.300]the Grand Forks rule.
[00:14:12.200]And if you weren't listening,
[00:14:14.180]so basically what that rule is,
[00:14:16.300]is the years where Grand Forks
[00:14:17.730]is at 90%,
[00:14:18.720]you're at 95 degrees before
[00:14:20.250]Memorial Day, which they manage
[00:14:21.870]that three or four straight
[00:14:23.250]days earlier in May,
[00:14:24.640]temperatures at almost at 100.
[00:14:26.300]And more or less, that's a
[00:14:28.160]symptom of the atmosphere.
[00:14:29.800]That is a symptom of the
[00:14:31.260]atmosphere was, you know,
[00:14:33.200]showing really strong ridging
[00:14:34.750]prevalent over the north
[00:14:35.920]central portion of the
[00:14:36.890]continent.
[00:14:37.560]And, you know, pretty warm
[00:14:39.030]temperatures with that type of
[00:14:40.620]pattern.
[00:14:41.240]And if we look at the month of
[00:14:43.100]July in years where we managed
[00:14:45.140]to hit 95 in Grand Forks
[00:14:47.000]relatively early,
[00:14:48.720]you tend to see a, that type of
[00:14:51.010]pattern reappear.
[00:14:52.620]And I do think that that we may
[00:14:54.150]be heading back toward that
[00:14:55.700]type of pattern.
[00:14:56.760]So if you look at precipitation
[00:14:58.330]anomalies, you know, it's like
[00:15:00.160]a positive those years where
[00:15:01.470]that happened since 1980.
[00:15:03.100]So it'd be 1980, 85, 87, 88,
[00:15:05.510]2006.
[00:15:06.240]Now, not all these years were
[00:15:08.160]super dry across this region,
[00:15:10.080]but most of them were at least
[00:15:11.630]on the dry side, if not quite
[00:15:13.170]dry.
[00:15:13.620]So you'll notice that a pretty
[00:15:15.090]good portion of the U.S.
[00:15:16.600]between the Rockies and the
[00:15:17.980]Great Lakes,
[00:15:18.720]were relatively dry, if not
[00:15:20.280]quite dry in the month of July.
[00:15:21.900]And also pretty consistently
[00:15:23.680]warm across the north central
[00:15:25.460]region in the month of July.
[00:15:27.320]And if we take a look at the
[00:15:29.210]drought outlook, again, I think
[00:15:31.850]that they are picking up on a
[00:15:33.850]ridge being more prominent
[00:15:35.700]across this region of the
[00:15:36.850]country,
[00:15:37.380]which is likely going to keep
[00:15:38.680]the entire north central region
[00:15:40.170]of the U.S. relatively warm.
[00:15:41.900]I think for most of the next
[00:15:43.220]several weeks, probably not
[00:15:44.740]every single day,
[00:15:45.780]there may be stretches of four
[00:15:47.010]or five days where it is cooler.
[00:15:48.660]But I think as on the whole,
[00:15:50.580]for the next several weeks, I
[00:15:51.470]think we are looking at
[00:15:52.750]temperatures generally being
[00:15:54.490]above seasonal norms.
[00:15:55.420]That may mean a higher than
[00:15:56.970]average number of days in the
[00:15:58.670]90s across this region of the
[00:16:00.660]country.
[00:16:01.500]So I do think that if we end up
[00:16:03.470]relatively dry, like, you know,
[00:16:05.310]I think most models are showing
[00:16:08.130]and, you know,
[00:16:08.700]history would certainly suggest
[00:16:10.650]that there is, you know, dryness
[00:16:12.820]would be favored across a lot
[00:16:14.770]of the central northern plains
[00:16:17.050]and Corn Belt,
[00:16:17.840]at least certainly the central.
[00:16:18.600]So I do think that there is
[00:16:20.430]going to be a decent
[00:16:21.830]probability of seeing areas
[00:16:24.060]that have gone out of drought
[00:16:25.370]recently,
[00:16:25.760]maybe go back way back into
[00:16:27.080]drought as we head deeper in
[00:16:28.460]the summer.
[00:16:29.220]And I think that drought is
[00:16:30.490]very likely to persist here
[00:16:31.820]across most of Nebraska.
[00:16:33.220]Not quite sure why they are
[00:16:34.590]expecting drought removal here
[00:16:36.210]across portions of northeastern
[00:16:38.000]Colorado.
[00:16:38.520]That doesn't seem to make a
[00:16:39.620]whole lot of sense to me, given
[00:16:41.080]the projection of warm, dry.
[00:16:43.080]And I do think we may have to
[00:16:44.660]watch out for at least portions
[00:16:46.540]of Kansas and eastern Colorado.
[00:16:48.540]Going back into drought, you
[00:16:50.580]know, we've been so wet down
[00:16:51.860]here in the southern plains at
[00:16:52.930]least in the immediate term.
[00:16:54.540]Drought is not a problem, not a
[00:16:56.180]strong possibility, but it
[00:16:58.420]wouldn't be would not be
[00:17:02.100]outside the realm of historical
[00:17:03.280]probability or a tendency for
[00:17:06.230]this area to flip over very
[00:17:07.700]warm and dry quickly.
[00:17:09.540]That certainly been the case at
[00:17:11.790]times in the historical past,
[00:17:13.380]even more recent past.
[00:17:14.540]They are expecting drought to
[00:17:16.130]persist here across northern
[00:17:17.720]Illinois.
[00:17:18.480]I think it would be interesting
[00:17:20.480]to see where that ridge sets up,
[00:17:22.610]because depending on where it
[00:17:24.310]is,
[00:17:24.480]I do think there is going to be
[00:17:26.520]the possibility of getting at
[00:17:28.740]least at times if we can get
[00:17:29.920]some short ways of riding over
[00:17:31.040]that ridge to get some, you
[00:17:33.660]know, periodic showers and
[00:17:34.660]thunderstorms riding across
[00:17:35.970]that ridge through at least the
[00:17:37.680]upper Midwest,
[00:17:38.480]maybe clipping the northern
[00:17:40.010]third of Illinois, getting
[00:17:41.420]Indiana, Ohio.
[00:17:42.480]And certainly I think there
[00:17:43.770]will be some severe risk as
[00:17:45.020]well.
[00:17:45.480]So I do think that there may be
[00:17:47.330]possibilities.
[00:17:48.420]We've seen some of this drought
[00:17:49.580]in Illinois improve as we head
[00:17:50.700]into the summer, but we'll see.
[00:17:51.420]That's really going to be very
[00:17:53.670]dependent upon where that ridge
[00:17:56.670]placement is.
[00:17:57.420]So when I speak about that 95
[00:17:59.970]degree north Grand Forks rule,
[00:18:02.410]that really is more a
[00:18:03.860]reflection of the Pacific Meridian
[00:18:06.420]Modulation being negative.
[00:18:10.420]So that's, you know, the colder
[00:18:12.290]water here off the Baja
[00:18:13.560]California that tends to favor
[00:18:15.320]more ridging here right over
[00:18:16.940]the central U.S.
[00:18:18.360]And that's a little bit of a
[00:18:18.940]correlation.
[00:18:19.360]If we look at correlations from
[00:18:20.680]July and August, that tends to
[00:18:21.990]put the ridge a little bit
[00:18:23.070]further toward the west.
[00:18:24.360]And I do think that we are
[00:18:25.940]looking at something that looks
[00:18:27.510]a little bit more like the, you
[00:18:29.260]know, correlated with the
[00:18:30.790]Pacific Decadal Oscillation,
[00:18:32.590]the PMM.
[00:18:33.360]I think we have seen some of
[00:18:34.390]those trade winds here back off
[00:18:35.630]a little bit.
[00:18:36.360]We have seen some waters warm
[00:18:38.170]up a little bit.
[00:18:39.360]So I think that there is a
[00:18:40.530]little bit less chance of that
[00:18:41.950]ridge being centered over Des
[00:18:43.410]Moines and a little bit better
[00:18:44.900]chance of that ridge being
[00:18:46.110]centered probably more from
[00:18:47.580]Kansas.
[00:18:48.300]We're up toward Glasgow,
[00:18:50.290]Montana, getting up in Alberta
[00:18:52.760]as we head into the summer, at
[00:18:55.020]least in the month of July.
[00:18:57.300]All that being said, the CPC
[00:18:58.660]shows below average
[00:18:59.700]precipitation favored across
[00:19:01.170]pretty much the entire northern
[00:19:02.760]plains, western Corn Belt, and
[00:19:04.630]really even getting into a lot
[00:19:06.330]of Illinois.
[00:19:07.300]So, again, I do think where
[00:19:09.220]that ridge sets up will be
[00:19:10.900]critical for the at least east
[00:19:12.910]of Mississippi.
[00:19:14.300]You know, if it's closer toward
[00:19:16.050]Bismarck than it is to North
[00:19:17.540]Carolina, then it's going to be
[00:19:18.240]a little bit better.
[00:19:18.240]If it's closer to, you know,
[00:19:19.780]central Montana, then I think
[00:19:21.400]that we are likely to see more
[00:19:22.900]dryness prevalent here across
[00:19:24.540]the entire upper Midwest.
[00:19:26.240]If it sits over here, which I
[00:19:28.230]think is my hunch is that it's
[00:19:30.150]going to be closer to here than
[00:19:32.190]over here.
[00:19:33.240]So I think that I feel very
[00:19:34.710]strongly that we are going to
[00:19:36.390]be below average in July across
[00:19:38.210]a lot of the western Corn Belt,
[00:19:40.100]central plains.
[00:19:41.240]And I do think warm being
[00:19:42.770]favored is likely.
[00:19:44.240]Interestingly enough, now,
[00:19:45.980]again, this was from May 15th.
[00:19:48.180]We'll get another update here
[00:19:49.350]relatively soon.
[00:19:50.180]But they show that, you know,
[00:19:52.030]the above average being favored,
[00:19:54.180]but with less confidence they
[00:19:56.190]have to our south and west and
[00:19:58.110]to our east.
[00:19:59.180]And I find that curious.
[00:20:00.180]Just based on historical press,
[00:20:02.020]it was suggested there is a
[00:20:03.460]strong probability of it being
[00:20:05.190]pretty warm across this region.
[00:20:07.180]So I agree with this assessment,
[00:20:08.880]but I think they probably, I'm
[00:20:10.460]surprised the confidence was as
[00:20:12.100]low as it was on those
[00:20:13.130]temperatures, at least for July.
[00:20:15.180]Now, I think August could be a
[00:20:16.890]different story.
[00:20:18.120]So that may be, I think, partly
[00:20:19.620]what they're thinking here is
[00:20:21.050]that July will be warm.
[00:20:22.120]And then August may be average,
[00:20:23.600]maybe slightly cooler across
[00:20:24.990]some of this region.
[00:20:26.120]So that may, you know, sort of
[00:20:28.110]balance it out a little bit.
[00:20:30.120]European model showing, so
[00:20:32.240]again, their seasonal update
[00:20:33.860]came in late, a couple, three
[00:20:35.440]days ago.
[00:20:36.120]So they are showing dry being
[00:20:38.180]favored in some of the same
[00:20:40.060]places CPC is showing it.
[00:20:42.120]So basically showing, you know,
[00:20:43.480]that Grand Forks 95 rule also
[00:20:44.800]suggests dry being favored here
[00:20:46.080]across a lot of midsection of
[00:20:47.230]the continent.
[00:20:48.060]Warm being favored as well.
[00:20:50.060]So again, I think now if this
[00:20:51.900]actually comes to fruition in a
[00:20:53.900]literal sense, which I'm not
[00:20:55.860]expecting that I, you know,
[00:20:58.110]this model, it does have skill,
[00:20:59.080]but it's not, you know,
[00:21:00.060]certainly isn't perfect.
[00:21:01.060]Then we are going to be looking
[00:21:02.610]at significant drought pressure
[00:21:04.390]across the Western Corn Belt,
[00:21:06.060]probably even across portions
[00:21:07.940]of the Central Corn Belt as
[00:21:09.510]well.
[00:21:10.060]And if we do turn over a dryer
[00:21:11.720]across portions of the Eastern
[00:21:13.620]Corn Belt, then that may be
[00:21:15.280]problematic for crops that got
[00:21:17.300]put in late and have a lot of
[00:21:18.000]drought.
[00:21:18.000]But some shallow roots from
[00:21:19.020]just how wet it's been.
[00:21:20.000]So this could be a real problem
[00:21:21.630]if this actually does come to
[00:21:23.200]fruition.
[00:21:24.000]And certainly the extra heat,
[00:21:25.750]you know, this would certainly
[00:21:27.670]indicate a lot of days,
[00:21:28.900]probably well into the 90s.
[00:21:31.000]Maybe, you know, more days in
[00:21:32.360]the lower 100s here across
[00:21:33.850]portions of Nebraska, Western
[00:21:35.590]Iowa, and Eastern South Dakota
[00:21:37.840]as we head into mid-summer.
[00:21:40.000]CFS is a little bit less
[00:21:41.940]bullish on being dry across the
[00:21:44.340]North Central US, but, you know,
[00:21:46.420]basically kind of showing dry
[00:21:47.170]in some of the same places.
[00:21:47.940]Also showing warm.
[00:21:48.940]So, again, I don't really have
[00:21:50.950]any reputable models right now
[00:21:52.880]that suggest that July is going
[00:21:54.820]to be cool and wet across
[00:21:58.120]pretty much anywhere in the
[00:21:59.390]Corn Belt or most of the
[00:22:00.330]Central Plains.
[00:22:00.940]Now, we could be surprised.
[00:22:02.940]We definitely have, I think to
[00:22:04.680]this point, this growing season
[00:22:06.520]has been a little bit better
[00:22:07.780]than I think was maybe
[00:22:08.920]anticipated.
[00:22:09.940]Certainly it's been much wetter
[00:22:11.260]in the Southern Plains than I
[00:22:12.440]was anticipating, certainly.
[00:22:13.940]So we'll see how things play
[00:22:15.480]out.
[00:22:15.940]But right now, pretty much all
[00:22:17.170]indications.
[00:22:17.880]Indications are July likely to
[00:22:20.160]be warm and dry across a good
[00:22:22.170]portion of the North Central US.
[00:22:24.880]I mean, particularly I-35 west
[00:22:27.530]of the North Central region of
[00:22:29.670]the country.
[00:22:30.880]So I talked about ENSO a little
[00:22:32.160]bit earlier.
[00:22:32.880]So, you know, the ENSO region
[00:22:34.170]here, Central, Eastern Pacific,
[00:22:35.730]you need kind of a mix of
[00:22:36.700]warmer and cooler water.
[00:22:37.880]So, again, really, you know,
[00:22:39.260]that La Nina was very short-lived.
[00:22:40.880]It was pretty weak.
[00:22:41.880]We were in neutral conditions.
[00:22:43.880]The area where we look at for
[00:22:45.190]the PMM here, Southern
[00:22:46.330]California off the Baja.
[00:22:47.820]Kind of a mix of warm and cool.
[00:22:49.820]This actually isn't quite as
[00:22:51.230]cool as it was a few weeks ago.
[00:22:52.820]So we have seen some warmer
[00:22:53.710]waters here, particularly off
[00:22:54.820]the Baja, California.
[00:22:55.820]I think if this, if we can see
[00:22:58.060]those trade winds continue to
[00:23:00.170]back off and if this water does
[00:23:02.280]get a little bit warmer, then
[00:23:04.240]that does, I think, decrease
[00:23:06.330]the chance of seeing that ridge
[00:23:07.820]being placed right over the
[00:23:09.610]heart of the Corn Belt as
[00:23:11.060]opposed to being displaced over
[00:23:13.980]the Rocky Mountains.
[00:23:14.820]The fact that this has been
[00:23:16.140]staying a little bit longer.
[00:23:17.760]A little bit warmer also does
[00:23:19.920]give me some indication.
[00:23:21.760]I think that ridge is likely to
[00:23:22.890]be displaced a little bit
[00:23:23.940]further toward the west on this
[00:23:24.990]continent as we head later in
[00:23:26.090]the summer.
[00:23:26.760]I do think that would be
[00:23:28.550]favorable for getting more
[00:23:30.250]moisture at least into the
[00:23:32.080]Central and Eastern course
[00:23:33.950]portions of the Corn Belt.
[00:23:34.760]That may even favor getting
[00:23:36.220]some timely precipitation,
[00:23:37.760]particularly as we get in the
[00:23:39.260]back part of the summer in the
[00:23:40.760]western portion of the Corn
[00:23:42.190]Belt.
[00:23:42.760]And just kind of talking about
[00:23:44.300]that.
[00:23:44.760]So some of the years I do
[00:23:46.220]consider analogs.
[00:23:47.700]Again, I don't think that there
[00:23:49.050]is a particularly good analog
[00:23:50.300]for the next couple of months.
[00:23:51.700]But years where we've kind of
[00:23:53.180]come out of a weak La Nina
[00:23:54.420]where you have more neutral
[00:23:55.860]conditions, you know, some of
[00:23:57.400]the sea surface temperature
[00:23:58.540]anomalies look similar.
[00:23:59.700]Maybe on some level, the
[00:24:01.500]springs were comparable at 17,
[00:24:04.180]21 have some similarities, 06
[00:24:07.110]maybe not as much.
[00:24:08.700]But if we look at a composite
[00:24:10.320]of these three years, you'll
[00:24:12.150]notice that we had a pretty stout
[00:24:14.130]ridge kind of centered over,
[00:24:15.920]you know, the Montana.
[00:24:17.640]The northern Montana, southern
[00:24:19.130]Alberta, maybe southwestern
[00:24:20.500]Saskatchewan with more
[00:24:21.550]prevalent tropic here and the
[00:24:23.000]Gulf of Alaska.
[00:24:23.640]That basically means the storm
[00:24:25.080]track would generally be
[00:24:26.250]favored well to the north.
[00:24:27.640]It may be bringing in more
[00:24:28.480]precipitation, of course, in
[00:24:29.580]the eastern United States.
[00:24:30.640]But this is definitely a warmer,
[00:24:32.760]drier signal for the north
[00:24:34.440]central U.S.
[00:24:35.640]But you'll notice in August in
[00:24:37.500]those years, we saw about a 700
[00:24:39.870]to 800 mile westward
[00:24:41.580]displacement of that ridge.
[00:24:43.640]And that was a consistent
[00:24:45.060]signal in every single one of
[00:24:46.680]these years, getting that ridge
[00:24:47.580]being displaced.
[00:24:47.580]Much further toward the west.
[00:24:49.580]And in a couple of years,
[00:24:51.070]particularly in 06, a little
[00:24:53.130]bit, also in 21, we did see
[00:24:55.030]some ridging being more
[00:24:56.200]prominent across parts of the
[00:24:57.630]eastern U.S.
[00:24:58.580]So that would also set up, you
[00:25:00.080]know, a possibility for not
[00:25:01.540]only getting more northwesterly
[00:25:03.260]flow directly into the central
[00:25:04.810]U.S., which, you know, in July
[00:25:07.180]and August does help favor more
[00:25:08.730]showers with thunderstorms.
[00:25:10.580]We'd also be getting a little
[00:25:11.950]bit better fetch of moisture.
[00:25:13.580]And, you know, in those years,
[00:25:15.680]I'm showing 2021.
[00:25:17.520]2017 is an example.
[00:25:18.520]You know, this will be somewhat
[00:25:20.190]dependent upon the MGO
[00:25:21.360]remaining at least somewhat
[00:25:22.850]active through the summer.
[00:25:24.520]You know, again, it's been a
[00:25:26.310]little bit more active here in
[00:25:28.140]the last few weeks, likely
[00:25:29.860]going back more into null space.
[00:25:31.520]But if we do maintain some
[00:25:33.130]atmospheric momentum, if the MGO
[00:25:35.360]does stay at least semi-active
[00:25:37.730]later in July, if we can shift
[00:25:39.530]over to Phases 6 and 7, you
[00:25:41.620]know, if we look at Phase 7,
[00:25:42.610]for example, this is from the
[00:25:43.870]University of Albany.
[00:25:44.520]But this shows that, you know,
[00:25:46.120]Phase 7 late in July.
[00:25:47.460]It does favor that ridge being
[00:25:49.150]placed over deep western Canada
[00:25:50.970]with maybe more troughing
[00:25:52.480]coming in here into the central
[00:25:54.240]eastern U.S.
[00:25:55.460]So this would actually be a
[00:25:57.020]more favored pattern for cooler
[00:25:58.940]temperatures and moisture
[00:26:00.640]getting into early August.
[00:26:02.460]If this does indeed come to
[00:26:03.680]fruition, there, I think, is
[00:26:05.180]some historical precedent would
[00:26:06.840]suggest this is a possibility.
[00:26:08.460]I am not saying this is a
[00:26:09.640]guarantee.
[00:26:10.460]But this is just sort of a
[00:26:11.790]point that shows that we are, I
[00:26:13.530]think, we're certainly looking
[00:26:15.410]at some drought pressure here.
[00:26:17.400]The next in the month of July.
[00:26:19.400]But it may not be a prolonged
[00:26:21.600]event.
[00:26:22.400]And I think there is going to
[00:26:23.780]be a significant difference
[00:26:25.250]between July being kind of dry
[00:26:26.750]and warm, particularly if we
[00:26:28.200]can get some decent moisture
[00:26:29.400]here the next few weeks.
[00:26:30.400]And August being relatively
[00:26:32.930]good, or at least decent,
[00:26:35.380]versus, you know, a pattern
[00:26:37.230]where we just have that ridge
[00:26:39.020]planted firmly over the, you
[00:26:40.860]know, Montana and maybe even as
[00:26:43.400]far east as North Dakota.
[00:26:45.400]If that's the case from indoor.
[00:26:47.340]But, you know, August, and I
[00:26:48.530]think we're really looking at
[00:26:49.670]big trouble across, at least
[00:26:50.820]especially the western Corn
[00:26:51.920]Belt.
[00:26:52.340]If something like this comes to
[00:26:54.090]fruition, then we may be
[00:26:55.490]looking at at least possibility
[00:26:57.310]of getting some very timely
[00:26:59.090]rains to help out to finish off,
[00:27:01.340]you know, get the, you know, at
[00:27:02.520]least get the soybean crop in
[00:27:04.530]good shape.
[00:27:05.340]Or at least potentially have
[00:27:06.260]the soybean crop in good shape.
[00:27:07.340]And I think that would at least
[00:27:09.820]benefit the last portion of the
[00:27:11.680]corn and sorghum crops, even if
[00:27:13.970]we are looking at suboptimal
[00:27:15.980]conditions.
[00:27:17.280]But that's not a worst case
[00:27:18.440]scenario moving into August if
[00:27:19.820]this does come to fruition.
[00:27:21.280]And if we look at temperature
[00:27:22.510]and precipitation, like the
[00:27:23.770]deposits for those three years,
[00:27:25.300]you'll notice again, you know,
[00:27:26.980]we looked at those three years
[00:27:28.300]were generally on, were quite
[00:27:30.000]warm.
[00:27:30.280]Now 06 especially was pretty
[00:27:31.970]warm across this area.
[00:27:33.280]But 17 also is relatively warm
[00:27:35.240]and 21 was relatively warm in
[00:27:37.130]July across the northern plains.
[00:27:39.280]Corn Belt, not as much.
[00:27:40.280]We did occasionally have some,
[00:27:41.870]you know, pockets of heat.
[00:27:43.280]But, you know, so southern
[00:27:44.190]plains, generally speaking, not
[00:27:45.530]a significant amount of heat.
[00:27:47.220]Pressure not too hot across the
[00:27:48.500]eastern corn belt.
[00:27:49.220]So I do think that, you know,
[00:27:50.720]we are not looking at
[00:27:51.750]significant heat pressure as we
[00:27:53.380]get toward the eastern portion
[00:27:54.500]of the corn belt.
[00:27:55.220]Maybe a little bit here in the
[00:27:57.150]central, but certainly northern
[00:27:59.500]plains, you know, if this comes
[00:28:01.680]to fruition, likely being
[00:28:02.670]fairly warm.
[00:28:03.220]But, you know, that's where
[00:28:04.570]that ridge axis is being kind
[00:28:05.770]of placed over eastern Montana.
[00:28:07.220]And being displaced here off
[00:28:08.700]the west coast, we keep the
[00:28:10.110]heat more confined to the west
[00:28:11.650]coast.
[00:28:12.220]And we maybe with some ridging
[00:28:13.590]in the east will be a little
[00:28:14.790]bit warmer in the eastern
[00:28:15.940]portion of corn belt.
[00:28:17.160]But this would, in the month of
[00:28:18.640]August, would suggest that we
[00:28:20.000]may have enough cool weather
[00:28:21.160]for it to come out right around
[00:28:22.560]average.
[00:28:23.160]And I do think that that would
[00:28:25.250]be very good news for grain
[00:28:27.190]filling.
[00:28:28.160]And also you'll notice that
[00:28:29.180]there is a big difference in
[00:28:30.220]precipitation totals,
[00:28:31.260]particularly here across the
[00:28:32.560]western portion of the corn
[00:28:33.740]belt.
[00:28:34.160]So, you know, July would favor
[00:28:36.260]relatively dry, but August
[00:28:38.090]would be wet.
[00:28:39.160]And again, we have not had a
[00:28:40.550]wet August in quite a while.
[00:28:42.160]2021 was the last year that we
[00:28:44.090]really actually had widespread
[00:28:45.710]decent precipitation.
[00:28:47.100]So that would be a change from
[00:28:48.950]recent years.
[00:28:50.100]And if we do end up with a dry
[00:28:51.200]July, this would be incredibly
[00:28:52.550]welcome.
[00:28:53.100]So again, I'm not saying this
[00:28:55.370]is going to happen.
[00:28:57.100]I'm not even saying this is
[00:28:58.470]likely.
[00:28:59.100]I'm just suggesting that
[00:28:59.920]historic precedent would
[00:29:00.780]suggest this may be a
[00:29:01.550]possibility to get some
[00:29:02.750]beneficial moisture in the back
[00:29:05.080]part of summer across the
[00:29:06.550]western portion of the corn
[00:29:07.720]belt.
[00:29:08.100]So that's something to kind of
[00:29:09.360]watch out for.
[00:29:10.100]And again, if that ridge is
[00:29:11.610]centered over this portion of
[00:29:13.250]the Midwest, you know, we do
[00:29:15.470]get some breakdowns.
[00:29:17.040]If we get some short waves that
[00:29:18.700]are coming in into the northern
[00:29:20.440]plains, I do think that the
[00:29:22.240]risk for severe weather,
[00:29:24.080]particularly here in Minnesota,
[00:29:26.040]Wisconsin, northern Illinois,
[00:29:28.040]Michigan, Indiana, Ohio,
[00:29:29.730]probably into the east coast, I
[00:29:31.020]do think there is maybe going
[00:29:32.120]to be a corridor in here where
[00:29:33.410]we may have more repeated
[00:29:34.990]rounds of showers and
[00:29:36.340]thunderstorms with chances for
[00:29:38.530]more damaging winds.
[00:29:39.980]So just something to kind of
[00:29:41.180]watch out for.
[00:29:41.980]It's something we definitely
[00:29:44.120]have seen at times in recent
[00:29:46.080]summers.
[00:29:46.980]And then finishing up, we do
[00:29:48.430]have a greater than 30% chance
[00:29:50.170]for more than two inches of
[00:29:51.490]rain across a good portion of
[00:29:53.000]the corn belt.
[00:29:53.920]Best chance of significant rain
[00:29:55.520]being over kind of the I-90
[00:29:57.060]corridor, drying out central
[00:29:58.580]southern high plains.
[00:29:59.920]We are looking at warmer
[00:30:01.200]temperatures being favored here
[00:30:02.990]for most of the next 10 days.
[00:30:04.920]I do think we are entering into
[00:30:06.220]a more prolonged stretch of
[00:30:07.420]above average temperatures.
[00:30:08.920]I do think there is a pretty
[00:30:10.240]good probability of July being
[00:30:11.810]pretty warm, particularly
[00:30:13.260]across a lot of Nebraska,
[00:30:14.580]western Iowa, getting into the
[00:30:16.200]Dakotas.
[00:30:16.920]We are likely to be on the drier
[00:30:18.620]side.
[00:30:18.920]That certainly is going to put
[00:30:19.930]some pressure on drought,
[00:30:20.920]particularly if we do not get
[00:30:21.810]significant precipitation here
[00:30:22.880]in the next couple of weeks.
[00:30:23.920]I think what we get the next
[00:30:25.240]couple of weeks is going to
[00:30:26.730]have a big determination as to
[00:30:28.060]how much drought pressure we
[00:30:29.500]have in the month of July.
[00:30:30.920]Again, ridge placement is going
[00:30:32.880]to be absolutely key here as we
[00:30:34.670]head into the next couple of
[00:30:36.240]months.
[00:30:36.920]If that ridge does persist
[00:30:38.730]between the Rockies and
[00:30:40.430]Minnesota, especially if it
[00:30:42.550]really sits there over eastern
[00:30:44.610]Montana, north of Colorado,
[00:30:46.850]then we're going to be in
[00:30:46.860]trouble.
[00:30:46.860]We're going to have a lot of
[00:30:48.520]problems with western Corn Belt.
[00:30:50.860]If it does displace toward the
[00:30:52.270]west, or if it's displaced more
[00:30:53.790]toward the southwest or ends up
[00:30:55.260]being further toward the south,
[00:30:56.970]then a lot of things I'm
[00:30:58.020]telling you here will be sort
[00:30:59.580]of out the window.
[00:31:00.860]But I do think there is going
[00:31:02.240]to be a possibility that the MGO
[00:31:03.800]remaining active, getting into
[00:31:05.730]phases 6 and 7 later in July,
[00:31:07.940]early August, would favor that
[00:31:09.280]westward displacement and
[00:31:11.020]allowing for more troughing
[00:31:12.860]getting into central eastern U.S.,
[00:31:13.860]bringing cooler temperatures
[00:31:15.230]and better chances for moisture.
[00:31:16.800]But I do think there is going
[00:31:16.940]to be a possibility that the MGO
[00:31:17.080]remaining active, getting into
[00:31:17.260]phases 6 and 7 later in July,
[00:31:17.430]early August, would favor that
[00:31:17.590]westward displacement and
[00:31:17.730]allowing for more troughing
[00:31:17.880]getting into central eastern U.S.,
[00:31:18.100]bringing cooler temperatures
[00:31:18.290]and better chances for moisture.
[00:31:18.800]Something else I haven't
[00:31:19.970]mentioned yet, but we've had
[00:31:20.800]quite a bit of smoke from wildfires
[00:31:20.800]already this spring.
[00:31:20.800]Something else I haven't
[00:31:21.210]mentioned yet, but we've had
[00:31:21.720]quite a bit of smoke from wildfires
[00:31:22.290]already this spring.
[00:31:22.800]From a crop development
[00:31:23.420]standpoint, that's not a huge
[00:31:24.220]issue right now.
[00:31:24.800]From a crop development
[00:31:25.420]standpoint, that's not a huge
[00:31:26.250]issue right now.
[00:31:26.800]But if that is a persistent
[00:31:28.060]signal where we're really
[00:31:29.360]reducing solar radiation later
[00:31:30.910]through a good portion of the
[00:31:32.290]summer in a lot of the Corn
[00:31:33.780]Belt, particularly the central
[00:31:35.610]eastern Corn Belt, then that
[00:31:36.800]would reduce yields.
[00:31:36.800]the central eastern corn belt
[00:31:38.860]then that would reduce yields i
[00:31:40.930]mean there are there is some
[00:31:42.900]evidence out there actually
[00:31:44.040]mark jeskey just posts from
[00:31:45.120]corteva posted something last
[00:31:46.880]week that
[00:31:47.640]showed that you know there is a
[00:31:49.470]decline in yield if you have
[00:31:51.140]solar radiation declines during
[00:31:53.860]late
[00:31:54.540]vegetative and in the
[00:31:55.600]reproductive stages of corn so
[00:31:57.140]i think that's something to
[00:31:58.490]watch out for
[00:31:59.220]i do think we'll have to pay
[00:32:00.810]attention to solar radiation
[00:32:02.660]anomalies in areas where we do
[00:32:04.480]have
[00:32:04.900]persistent smoke now smoke
[00:32:06.070]would you know potentially keep
[00:32:07.810]temperatures down a little
[00:32:09.260]bit at times but the reduction
[00:32:11.240]of photosynthesis would
[00:32:13.080]certainly be a major detriment
[00:32:14.940]i think that
[00:32:15.660]might be for some would make
[00:32:17.500]for some unpleasant yield
[00:32:19.260]surprises if that does persist
[00:32:21.680]also again i
[00:32:22.480]do think that there is going to
[00:32:23.880]be severe storm risk that's
[00:32:25.180]always a risk in the summer but
[00:32:27.190]with
[00:32:27.640]that ridge being set up if it
[00:32:29.610]ends up being pretty stout then
[00:32:31.570]you know areas well to you know
[00:32:33.440]the
[00:32:33.540]eastern northeastern periphery
[00:32:34.760]of the corn belt would be a
[00:32:34.880]major detriment to solar
[00:32:34.880]radiation
[00:32:34.880]that you know again we tend to
[00:32:36.250]have storms in those areas in
[00:32:38.220]the summer and i do think this
[00:32:41.020]the portion of the upper midwest
[00:32:42.650]eastern corn belt including
[00:32:44.110]portions of illinois northern
[00:32:45.780]illinois i
[00:32:46.460]think would certainly be in an
[00:32:48.570]area favorable for severe
[00:32:50.000]storms at times in july maybe
[00:32:51.800]in early
[00:32:52.400]august it also probably be
[00:32:54.390]maybe potentially a case area
[00:32:56.660]other areas later in the summer
[00:32:58.990]as well
[00:32:59.400]we're getting more
[00:33:00.520]precipitation but that's all
[00:33:02.280]for now and if you have any
[00:33:03.750]questions please
[00:33:04.860]free feel to email me afterward
[00:33:06.820]as ehunt2 at unl.edu and again
[00:33:08.780]you can always find updates
[00:33:10.800]pretty frequently on the state
[00:33:12.580]climate office page i generally
[00:33:14.330]have something out on tiktok
[00:33:16.000]every week i have it last week
[00:33:17.350]or this week just because of
[00:33:18.630]travel and this will also be
[00:33:20.980]available on the crop watch
[00:33:22.230]podcast we'll talk to you soon

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Second Tuesday at 9 — June 10, 2025

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