Grain Marketing for 2025 Part 1 - WASDE (Jan. 14, 2025)
Center for Agricultural Profitability
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01/15/2025
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Description
The five-part webinar series, Grain Marketing for 2025, is designed to equip farmers with the knowledge and strategies they need to succeed in today’s ever-changing grain market.
Each session will be led by Agricultural Economists Cory Walters and Jessica Groskopf, who will review and provide insights into managing important topics such as: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), Cost of Production, Seasonality and Price Patterns, Pre-harvest pricing strategies, and Crop Insurance contract decisions including SCO and ECO.
The webinars will help producers navigate the complex process selling grain under unknown information about future market prices, yields and high investment costs.
Series web page: https://cap.unl.edu/news/grain-marketing-webinar-series-starts-january-14-help-farmers-navigate-2025-and-beyond/
Searchable Transcript
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- [00:00:00.500]Looks like we are all set.
- [00:00:03.320]Well, welcome everyone and we're so excited for you to join us
- [00:00:07.860]for this webinar series presented by the Center for Ag Profitability.
- [00:00:12.780]My name is Jessica Groskopf.
- [00:00:14.520]I am a Regional Extension Economist here with Nebraska Extension
- [00:00:19.620]and really excited for this opportunity to really get to know
- [00:00:25.000]what you want to know about marketing in 2025.
- [00:00:28.220]So with me today, I have Corey Walters, and Corey's going to be sharing the screen here,
- [00:00:33.880]and we'll go ahead and get our discussion started.
- [00:00:37.360]Take it away, Corey.
- [00:00:38.660]Oh, let me get on the right screen.
- [00:00:41.280]You got me?
- [00:00:52.940]Yep, we're good to go.
- [00:00:56.300]All right.
- [00:00:57.480]Okay.
- [00:00:58.100]Jessica, the first couple slides are you,
- [00:01:00.560]and then we'll jump over to me.
- [00:01:02.240]But I guess maybe before we do that,
- [00:01:05.620]Jessica already said my name.
- [00:01:08.000]I am a faculty member here in the Department of Ag Econ,
- [00:01:12.560]and I spend a lot of time around crop insurance
- [00:01:15.640]and decision-making and uncertainty.
- [00:01:17.180]That also implies some hedging,
- [00:01:22.140]forward contracting and avoiding risk or managing your
- [00:01:27.980]exposure and everything inside of that.
- [00:01:31.200]But mainly focusing a lot of time on crop insurance.
- [00:01:35.620]And as this week is right now,
- [00:01:37.540]we're hauling some grain in back in Montana,
- [00:01:39.900]watching basis erode as its futures come up.
- [00:01:42.980]We've locked a little of that in.
- [00:01:45.200]So I'm also active on trying to survive this market
- [00:01:52.280]we're facing right now.
- [00:01:53.420]And so it's been pretty intriguing.
- [00:01:55.660]And I think the conversation today will help
- [00:01:57.860]shed some light on, we're gonna focus on WASDE,
- [00:02:01.100]of what that means, what it does,
- [00:02:03.080]and especially what it doesn't mean.
- [00:02:05.280]So there's my introduction, Jessica.
- [00:02:09.060]Please take it from here for a couple slides.
- [00:02:13.040]- Yeah, sounds good.
- [00:02:14.300]Go ahead and advance for me.
- [00:02:16.240]So just as a reminder,
- [00:02:20.660]we are going to be doing five of these meetings.
- [00:02:23.460]We're gonna go every other week,
- [00:02:25.700]just to give us a little bit of time
- [00:02:27.740]to prepare for the upcoming meeting.
- [00:02:30.340]So today, like Corey said,
- [00:02:31.760]we're gonna be working on the world agriculture
- [00:02:34.020]supply and demand estimates,
- [00:02:35.860]so that you can get some background
- [00:02:37.640]and some information about that.
- [00:02:39.660]But for the other upcoming workshops,
- [00:02:41.680]we've kind of got a list there of topics
- [00:02:45.400]Corey and I would be interested in discussing with you.
- [00:02:48.980]However, we really want this to be interactive
- [00:02:52.520]and an opportunity for all of us
- [00:02:54.460]to talk to one another, see what's going on
- [00:02:57.620]in our minds and in the markets.
- [00:03:00.740]So if you have any ideas or topics
- [00:03:04.540]that you would like us to dig into,
- [00:03:06.860]please make sure that you put those in the chat
- [00:03:10.440]or put them in the Q&A and we'll offer that opportunity
- [00:03:14.100]multiple times as we work together.
- [00:03:16.380]In fact, I'm gonna go ahead and send a chat message.
- [00:03:19.660]Again, throughout today's presentation
- [00:03:21.860]or any of these Tuesday webinars,
- [00:03:24.700]we really do encourage you to interact with Corey
- [00:03:27.500]and I and we are going to try to attempt
- [00:03:31.420]to also get you all to interact with one another as well.
- [00:03:34.780]So this is going to be one of those
- [00:03:37.260]where we might put you into a breakout room
- [00:03:39.380]or ask you to discuss a question through that chat feature.
- [00:03:44.860]All right, so go ahead, Corey.
- [00:03:48.540]- Uh-oh, there we go.
- [00:03:54.020]- There we go.
- [00:03:55.260]All right, so we,
- [00:03:57.380]we wanted to bring this forward
- [00:03:58.900]and the first thing that we wanted to discuss
- [00:04:01.260]is we're a few days out
- [00:04:03.420]after the World Agriculture Supply
- [00:04:06.500]and Demand Estimate Report.
- [00:04:08.780]The January report was released on January 10th
- [00:04:13.580]and so it's been a couple days
- [00:04:15.500]and we've kind of let that report settle,
- [00:04:17.660]but we often get questions
- [00:04:19.340]about the World Agriculture Supply
- [00:04:21.220]and Demand Estimate Report
- [00:04:22.500]and so that's why we're focusing on this today
- [00:04:25.860]is because we're,
- [00:04:27.260]we just had one released
- [00:04:28.540]and we're excited to discuss
- [00:04:30.940]how we should be thinking about this report.
- [00:04:33.420]So these reports began back in the 1970s.
- [00:04:37.380]They are released monthly
- [00:04:39.900]and usually that release date
- [00:04:41.420]is between the 8th and the 12th of the month.
- [00:04:44.540]And we'll show you the website
- [00:04:46.140]where you can find a little bit more
- [00:04:49.220]out about this report.
- [00:04:50.980]So Corey, you wanted to talk
- [00:04:54.020]about the aim of that report.
- [00:04:57.140]- So yeah, we hear around a lot of statements
- [00:05:02.140]around the WASDE about how it's wrong.
- [00:05:05.540]They should just get rid of it.
- [00:05:06.860]It's always incorrect.
- [00:05:09.900]Take that thing and shove it.
- [00:05:11.660]Everything you could possibly think of,
- [00:05:13.740]including a bunch of very nice colorful words.
- [00:05:17.420]And of course, a bunch of conspiracy theories
- [00:05:21.220]behind the report all exist
- [00:05:24.620]and are in good standing
- [00:05:27.020]among folks reading this.
- [00:05:30.460]And unfortunately, the alternative,
- [00:05:34.860]it can be gravely worse.
- [00:05:36.500]And so to complain about something,
- [00:05:39.800]offer how to make it better,
- [00:05:41.260]not just to toss it away.
- [00:05:43.320]And so the alternative right now
- [00:05:46.080]would be for private companies
- [00:05:47.800]to gather the information
- [00:05:49.300]in which they would sell it to you.
- [00:05:52.020]They could use it to their advantage
- [00:05:55.360]to take profits from you.
- [00:05:56.900]And those are tough areas to hang out in.
- [00:06:01.780]I'll give you a couple of them.
- [00:06:04.460]And we all have crops that don't have futures markets
- [00:06:09.140]and don't fall under WASDE stuff.
- [00:06:12.320]And I'll give you a good one is the catnip market.
- [00:06:14.860]We got some neighbors back home raising catnip.
- [00:06:17.900]That's the actual oil.
- [00:06:20.340]And before that, they were a little bit into dill oil.
- [00:06:26.780]Dill oil was also floating around, and they're both very similar.
- [00:06:30.740]Maybe I'll go instead of the catnip one because that one's a little more extravagant.
- [00:06:35.180]The dill oil is a little more interesting where the buyers would meet the sellers down
- [00:06:41.540]in Las Vegas and exchange the money, and then a truck would roll in and grab the barrels
- [00:06:47.580]of oil.
- [00:06:48.580]But no one knew if they were really, the sellers particularly, didn't know if they were really
- [00:06:51.980]getting a good price.
- [00:06:54.380]And sometimes they couldn't even sell it.
- [00:06:56.660]There would just be no buyers.
- [00:06:58.380]And they had no information about the market on dill oil, whether it was good or bad.
- [00:07:04.080]And it cost some of them some money, because they just couldn't survive the storage, and
- [00:07:08.540]they essentially just couldn't survive the lack of information in the market.
- [00:07:14.720]And it is good they didn't put a lot of acreage into it, but we do need to think too, what
- [00:07:19.180]are those markets that we don't know a lot about, and how do we behave in those, and
- [00:07:24.180]do we want to go back to that?
- [00:07:26.540]Didn't have the WASDE, or if we had to spend a lot of money to buy a report, in which we'll
- [00:07:31.560]show you here in a little bit, the evidence suggests that even the private companies don't
- [00:07:35.700]get this thing, they don't get this thing right.
- [00:07:39.060]The WASDE's free to access, and that's very important.
- [00:07:42.420]So it's made available at a certain point in time to everyone.
- [00:07:47.040]It's not some first come, first serve.
- [00:07:51.620]Some of you may remember the movie with Trading Places.
- [00:07:56.420]There's the fake report of the concentrate orange juice, and they get those guys for
- [00:08:04.060]thinking they had an advantage.
- [00:08:06.540]This thing's serious because there's a lot of money behind it, and there's been no evidence
- [00:08:10.720]of that being abused in lockup.
- [00:08:13.100]I would encourage people to go participate in that.
- [00:08:17.320]I believe it is possible.
- [00:08:18.740]I've not done it myself, but I've heard of other people's that have done it, and it's
- [00:08:21.840]pretty impressive.
- [00:08:25.280]Why does the WASDE exist?
- [00:08:26.300]There are a number of reasons, and let's walk through those.
- [00:08:31.000]The first one is to provide accurate and reliable information.
- [00:08:34.980]The word "accurate" has a distribution around it, just like the word "estimate" does.
- [00:08:40.180]We're going to come to that in a little bit.
- [00:08:42.380]Just think of it as they're trying to be as accurate as possible with the information
- [00:08:46.360]they have.
- [00:08:47.360]Again, it's okay to criticize.
- [00:08:50.420]I have questions about it, too, but I, as of yet, don't have a better alternative to
- [00:08:55.420]this thing.
- [00:08:56.180]And going back to no information, man, I don't like that right now.
- [00:09:05.320]The WASDE helps improve market transparency because it's being provided by an unbiased
- [00:09:10.800]source.
- [00:09:12.000]It helps with policy and planning.
- [00:09:13.840]It goes outside of just moving the market.
- [00:09:16.840]It's also used by policymakers.
- [00:09:20.060]There's economic forecasts created from it so they can get an idea of what they expect
- [00:09:26.060]to be happening, even though they know there's a distribution behind that.
- [00:09:29.880]And again, forecasting, distributions, that means there's errors.
- [00:09:33.660]And we have to accept a world with errors.
- [00:09:35.480]This is not the government being right or wrong.
- [00:09:39.240]It's the errors are there, and they'll adjust as more information comes to get to truth
- [00:09:45.660]as close as they can.
- [00:09:47.800]It goes to improve trade and production decisions, and it improves risk management decisions,
- [00:09:52.960]which is the primary focus for farmers.
- [00:09:55.940]Now, you get to see what you can do with the new information and how you react to that.
- [00:10:03.180]That's the essence of the WASDE is to see what it does to price, and then you get to
- [00:10:08.420]react to price.
- [00:10:09.420]You may not like what it does.
- [00:10:11.320]Maybe it goes down, and you had some grain to sell, or you may like what it does and
- [00:10:15.440]grain goes up, but it improves your risk management decisions because it gives you an opportunity
- [00:10:21.080]because the price is adjusted for that.
- [00:10:25.820]So, the WASDE impacts market efficiency.
- [00:10:29.140]It's accurate and timely data.
- [00:10:31.120]There's a reason they put it out every month, and there's a reason it's available to everyone,
- [00:10:36.360]and it reduces that information asymmetry.
- [00:10:38.580]Picture a large ag company, perhaps a buy grain, who spent the money and resources to
- [00:10:45.340]gather all that information.
- [00:10:47.220]Would they sell it to you, or would they use it in their advantage and maybe very likely
- [00:10:55.000]put you in a disadvantage?
- [00:10:55.700]Financially.
- [00:10:56.700]And it promotes informed decision making, because now we have more information now.
- [00:11:02.620]It also guides an efficient, effective use of resources.
- [00:11:06.660]And like I said earlier, policymakers use the data to make policies, and we'll see some
- [00:11:11.100]reports from the Economic Research Service in a link that demonstrates this.
- [00:11:17.480]So, Jessica, this one, I think, is for you.
- [00:11:22.580]Yeah, so it's important to kind of understand
- [00:11:25.580]how this WASDE report is built, and it's led by the World Agriculture Outlook Board, and
- [00:11:33.720]then they have nine interagency commodity committees, basically, that are responsible
- [00:11:40.620]for aggregating all of this information.
- [00:11:44.500]And I think what's really interesting about the WASDE report is it creates a global balance
- [00:11:49.080]sheet, and that balance sheet is supply and demand.
- [00:11:53.640]And so, ultimately, that information...
- [00:11:55.460]...is summarized at the bottom, basically, with average farm price here in the US.
- [00:12:03.860]So again, it's a little bit different in terms of its structure.
- [00:12:08.640]It takes a little while to understand exactly what they're doing, and we'll show you the
- [00:12:13.080]exact report that was done here in January here in a little bit.
- [00:12:17.640]But I think this is one of those interesting pieces where, if we think about it like a
- [00:12:23.400]balance sheet, right?
- [00:12:25.340]In demand, we have to make sure that both of those sides ultimately kind of equal to
- [00:12:30.960]one another, and then using that information, they come up with the average farm price.
- [00:12:35.620]Now, remember that the national average farm price is weighted by the quantity of production
- [00:12:44.120]sold each month.
- [00:12:45.380]So again, they're working through this process saying, this much grain is going to be sold
- [00:12:51.440]at this price, and that will ultimately
- [00:12:55.220]be pulled into that average.
- [00:12:57.660]So there was a question in the chat of whether or not these slides will be shared following
- [00:13:04.040]this presentation.
- [00:13:04.820]And yes, we can share the slides after the presentation.
- [00:13:08.860]And again, if you have any questions like that one, please don't hesitate to put them
- [00:13:14.000]in the chat box.
- [00:13:14.740]And one thing there, Jessica, on the global balance sheet, we need to think of the size
- [00:13:22.140]of that forecast error as growing.
- [00:13:25.100]As we go further away from the U.S., we're here in a little bit, we'll show the number
- [00:13:31.180]of data points they have in the U.S.
- [00:13:32.920]And I'm reminded of the time when I was with some Chinese folks who were in their equivalent
- [00:13:41.100]of the USDA.
- [00:13:41.880]They were fairly high up.
- [00:13:43.960]And I asked them, how do they get their supply and demand forecast for China?
- [00:13:49.920]And the guy literally laughed at me and said, we wait for you guys to tell us what
- [00:13:54.980]we have.
- [00:13:55.740]And I'm not entirely sure if he was being serious or what, but it just is another
- [00:14:05.040]reflection of this is an estimate and there are ways to get to an estimate, but we
- [00:14:11.920]should respect that as we move further away where there's less information, those
- [00:14:17.120]estimates will have a larger range, especially with the one in China, because it's
- [00:14:22.560]hard to understand what's going on over there.
- [00:14:24.860]I got an impression from those folks, they are not entirely sure either of what's
- [00:14:29.460]going on just because of the way grain is stored over there.
- [00:14:32.840]So this takes a look at what data is included into this report.
- [00:14:43.620]So again, it's not just looking at one specific number or values, right?
- [00:14:49.960]We're trying to look across not only USDA, but we're also pulling in all of
- [00:14:54.740]this other information.
- [00:14:55.940]And Corey alluded to some of this in his last comment.
- [00:14:59.240]So we're looking at the Agricultural Marketing Service, ERS, Farm Service
- [00:15:05.280]Agency, Foreign Ag Service, and National Statistics Services.
- [00:15:09.180]Those are kind of the five primary USDA pieces that are feeding in here.
- [00:15:14.500]But we're also looking at things like weather data, satellite imagery,
- [00:15:19.100]information from the Energy Information Administration, foreign government
- [00:15:24.080]reports.
- [00:15:24.620]And then we also have to look at trade data from the Census Bureau.
- [00:15:28.440]So again, we're trying to feed in this information and summarize that into
- [00:15:34.520]this one report on a monthly basis.
- [00:15:39.040]So you can imagine the amount of information that is coming into this.
- [00:15:43.480]And so that's something really important to keep in mind is the amount that's
- [00:15:47.780]coming in.
- [00:15:48.280]And again, as Corey said, you know, the farther you get away, sometimes the
- [00:15:52.860]more difficult it is.
- [00:15:54.500]To retain that tight distribution around that report.
- [00:15:59.720]Do you want to move forward?
- [00:16:05.780]One of the things I want to talk about here, and if we think about some of that
- [00:16:12.100]information, is that we have to make some assumptions, right?
- [00:16:15.980]If we're taking this data from all these places and all of these sources, the
- [00:16:24.380]that it works by.
- [00:16:25.340]And I gave you an example here of one of the assumptions that they use.
- [00:16:30.720]And so on yields, when they're forecasting crop yields, they do not try to predict
- [00:16:37.100]future weather conditions, okay?
- [00:16:40.380]So this is really kind of one of those interesting pieces where we as maybe farmers and
- [00:16:46.580]rangers are looking at something like the drought monitor or something like that, El
- [00:16:53.100]Niño or La Niña.
- [00:16:54.260]Right?
- [00:16:54.780]And that's maybe feeding into our decision making as a producer, but USDA NASS is not
- [00:17:02.900]using that as a part of their assumption.
- [00:17:04.820]They're looking and saying, based on what we know today and assuming things are going
- [00:17:10.920]to be typical in the future, this is what those yields look like.
- [00:17:15.580]So this is something that's really important.
- [00:17:17.380]And that publication there down at the bottom, which again, you'll get the slides for,
- [00:17:24.140]I'll share here real fast.
- [00:17:27.060]It goes through, oh, sorry.
- [00:17:30.820]Do you want me to click on it?
- [00:17:31.840]If you can.
- [00:17:33.120]See if that'll go.
- [00:17:38.120]Yeah, so this is a really interesting, this is just from USDA NASS.
- [00:17:44.520]And it just discusses how they're estimating their crop forecasts.
- [00:17:51.140]So again, those crop forecasts are not just,
- [00:17:54.020]it's used in WASDE, you'll see them in other places,
- [00:17:57.060]but this goes through some of those assumptions.
- [00:18:00.180]So just having that opportunity to kind of think through
- [00:18:03.600]what each of these agencies are doing
- [00:18:07.740]as they put this information into the WASDE report.
- [00:18:11.280]So I think you're good to move forward to the next slide.
- [00:18:16.360]So on this, you know, there are some reports
- [00:18:22.060]that are more exciting than others.
- [00:18:23.900]And part of that has to do with
- [00:18:26.060]when they are updating information.
- [00:18:28.480]So for example, the March report
- [00:18:32.100]tends to be kind of a more exciting report.
- [00:18:34.520]And the reason is, is that's when we start learning
- [00:18:38.200]about farmers planting intentions.
- [00:18:40.320]So that's when we start to discuss,
- [00:18:42.940]well, how many acres of corn, how many acres of wheat,
- [00:18:45.880]how many acres of soybeans are going to be
- [00:18:48.840]actually out in the world, right?
- [00:18:51.580]We could say the same thing about the June report
- [00:18:53.780]that's when we get actual plantings.
- [00:18:56.700]August is when we start to look at actual yield estimates.
- [00:19:00.900]And so as you think about this,
- [00:19:04.100]what we kind of want to know
- [00:19:05.640]is what reports we should be looking at.
- [00:19:11.100]So if I'm a corn producer,
- [00:19:12.540]I might want to be watching that March report
- [00:19:15.760]for those planting intentions,
- [00:19:18.000]definitely June for actual planting.
- [00:19:20.880]And then of course, August for those yield
- [00:19:23.660]those first yield forecasts.
- [00:19:26.360]So again, each crop might have different information
- [00:19:31.020]coming into each report.
- [00:19:32.680]And that's completely based on where we're at
- [00:19:35.680]within the production cycle for each crop.
- [00:19:38.740]Now what's on the screen is not comprehensive.
- [00:19:41.600]Of course, for my winter wheat folks,
- [00:19:45.420]there would be others that we'd be more interested in.
- [00:19:49.160]But for corn and soy,
- [00:19:50.600]I think we hit many there on the screen.
- [00:19:53.540]That you might be interested in.
- [00:19:55.820]So I really want to emphasize this.
- [00:20:01.640]And I think a lot of times,
- [00:20:03.240]and Corey discussed it earlier,
- [00:20:04.920]as Nebraska Extension,
- [00:20:08.000]we get asked a lot about the accuracy of the WASDE report.
- [00:20:13.900]And as an individual farmer,
- [00:20:16.380]my spouse and I farm just north of Scotts Bluff, Nebraska.
- [00:20:20.040]Yes, I want an accurate report.
- [00:20:23.420]We want an accurate report, right?
- [00:20:25.280]We want that.
- [00:20:26.760]However, I don't know that that's the right question
- [00:20:30.420]for us as farmers to be asking
- [00:20:33.360]when it comes to making marketing decisions.
- [00:20:37.400]When it comes to making marketing decisions,
- [00:20:40.920]it's really, what are you going to do about it?
- [00:20:43.160]And I think that's probably the more,
- [00:20:46.080]you know, the shift we need to have in our minds
- [00:20:49.140]when it comes to these reports.
- [00:20:50.540]USDA is doing their best.
- [00:20:53.300]To compile these reports
- [00:20:54.800]and how are you going to react
- [00:20:56.960]when those numbers come out?
- [00:20:58.660]That's really the question
- [00:21:00.540]that we encourage you to think about
- [00:21:02.680]as you go forward.
- [00:21:03.580]And I'm reminded again of a story
- [00:21:10.140]that happened a couple of years ago
- [00:21:11.220]here in Nebraska,
- [00:21:11.840]where a farmer came in to a NAS office
- [00:21:15.760]and was upset about the county yield
- [00:21:17.940]and was adamant that it was,
- [00:21:21.400]I believe in this case,
- [00:21:23.180]too high.
- [00:21:23.800]And the NAS person looked at him
- [00:21:27.500]and said,
- [00:21:28.520]I have 500 other responses
- [00:21:30.700]that say otherwise.
- [00:21:31.620]And that was the end of the story.
- [00:21:34.560]And the point is,
- [00:21:39.060]they're using statistics.
- [00:21:40.900]They have data.
- [00:21:42.260]We have to think in that terms,
- [00:21:44.660]not about what my yield was
- [00:21:46.580]or mine or the neighbor's yield.
- [00:21:48.240]We have to think about
- [00:21:50.180]what data do they have
- [00:21:51.660]and is it
- [00:21:53.060]enough to get them
- [00:21:54.300]to a closer to truth
- [00:21:57.460]in that yield.
- [00:21:59.080]And that is what I show here.
- [00:22:02.700]And so think of that yield
- [00:22:06.180]as being this beta,
- [00:22:07.440]the true beta,
- [00:22:08.300]the true yield.
- [00:22:09.180]We started off with,
- [00:22:12.820]let's say,
- [00:22:13.840]lots of high quality data
- [00:22:15.260]and that data will center
- [00:22:17.240]over that true yield.
- [00:22:18.780]It'll have a pretty small
- [00:22:20.940]variance to it.
- [00:22:22.940]When there's fewer
- [00:22:25.260]survey responses,
- [00:22:26.540]let's say, for example,
- [00:22:27.600]let's say we still have
- [00:22:29.640]some high quality data.
- [00:22:30.860]Well, it's still centered
- [00:22:32.760]over that true yield,
- [00:22:34.540]but it has a little
- [00:22:35.300]wider variation.
- [00:22:36.280]The risk comes in all this
- [00:22:39.800]is if we get a bunch
- [00:22:41.020]of low quality data
- [00:22:42.360]that the distribution
- [00:22:43.600]actually moves
- [00:22:45.000]and it's no longer centered
- [00:22:46.820]over the true yield anymore.
- [00:22:48.880]My sense is,
- [00:22:50.900]from talking to farmers,
- [00:22:52.820]the ones that express it to me
- [00:22:54.460]that we're moving
- [00:22:55.240]we're moving down and over
- [00:22:58.060]and I have no idea
- [00:23:00.080]where we're at in that
- [00:23:01.120]because I hear a lot of farmers
- [00:23:02.980]that don't respond to the surveys.
- [00:23:05.240]But yet when you see
- [00:23:06.600]the survey response numbers,
- [00:23:08.080]there's still a lot of people
- [00:23:09.700]responding to it.
- [00:23:10.760]So perhaps my hunch
- [00:23:12.880]is that people say
- [00:23:13.720]they don't respond,
- [00:23:14.600]but yet they still respond.
- [00:23:16.740]Maybe it's the plethora
- [00:23:18.320]of phone calls they give you
- [00:23:20.000]or different ways to submit it
- [00:23:22.700]perhaps there's somewhere in that.
- [00:23:25.500]But we don't want to go
- [00:23:26.820]this direction
- [00:23:28.120]because then
- [00:23:30.080]the data that enters the market
- [00:23:33.160]that traders, active traders
- [00:23:35.520]read
- [00:23:37.000]can send the futures market
- [00:23:38.920]in different directions.
- [00:23:39.740]And that's just going to further
- [00:23:42.160]upset folks
- [00:23:44.200]when the correction happens.
- [00:23:46.120]So it starts off with good data.
- [00:23:48.200]All this starts off with good data
- [00:23:49.820]to try to get around this true
- [00:23:52.580]parameter, this true yield.
- [00:23:54.180]There's been a lot of work.
- [00:23:58.900]We're going to shift gears a little bit.
- [00:24:00.200]We're going to come back to the WASDE
- [00:24:02.620]of the January.
- [00:24:05.220]So there's been a lot,
- [00:24:06.520]of course, there's been a lot of questions
- [00:24:07.700]from stakeholders on the quality of the WASDE.
- [00:24:10.280]And as a response, academics
- [00:24:12.380]have spent a lot of time
- [00:24:14.220]investigating the WASDE.
- [00:24:16.800]So there's a pretty
- [00:24:18.620]interesting one here in 2012
- [00:24:20.280]that's trying to quantify the
- [00:24:22.460]announcement effect.
- [00:24:23.380]And what they essentially found was
- [00:24:26.160]WASDE announcement effects persist
- [00:24:28.240]across contract positions.
- [00:24:29.760]It's not limited to the months that include
- [00:24:32.560]just NASS crop survey data.
- [00:24:34.440]It's amplified
- [00:24:36.240]during low carryover periods
- [00:24:38.360]for soybeans and wheat.
- [00:24:40.220]I'm not sure why they didn't look at corn.
- [00:24:41.640]And it's rapidly incorporated into futures prices.
- [00:24:44.460]These are things
- [00:24:46.100]we commonly observe.
- [00:24:48.100]Okay.
- [00:24:49.140]It is still a highly valued
- [00:24:52.340]announcement.
- [00:24:53.620]And because of that, it's going to move the market
- [00:24:56.520]every time,
- [00:24:58.220]especially when that
- [00:25:00.320]report comes in
- [00:25:01.340]in a different fashion than what
- [00:25:04.340]was expected.
- [00:25:05.480]Here's another
- [00:25:08.420]one more recent, just this last year.
- [00:25:10.480]And this
- [00:25:11.760]actually graphs
- [00:25:13.500]the volatility of prices
- [00:25:16.060]during the day at which the
- [00:25:18.200]WASDs
- [00:25:18.880]released.
- [00:25:22.220]And
- [00:25:22.860]so right around that 11 o'clock time
- [00:25:25.840]that volatility blows up where there's
- [00:25:27.800]a lot of action going on
- [00:25:30.000]in the futures markets because of that new
- [00:25:31.940]data that just hit
- [00:25:33.920]the market.
- [00:25:34.440]And of course, if we want
- [00:25:37.880]to have a position on it, if we're holding
- [00:25:39.920]grain and we want to sell, well we always want
- [00:25:41.780]those prices to go up. But unfortunately
- [00:25:43.900]there's errors around that. Sometimes
- [00:25:45.400]the price, not errors, but the
- [00:25:47.980]price goes a different direction because of the report.
- [00:25:50.060]But nevertheless, the
- [00:25:52.100]price moves. And so
- [00:25:54.000]picturing an environment where this
- [00:25:56.040]thing just stuck quiet the whole time
- [00:25:58.360]and then people with
- [00:25:59.980]asymmetric information entered
- [00:26:02.020]the market because they knew what was really
- [00:26:04.040]going on, you may slowly
- [00:26:06.140]see things happen that are worse for
- [00:26:08.100]you than one
- [00:26:10.000]big shock in this thing.
- [00:26:11.720]But the point here
- [00:26:14.020]again is that
- [00:26:15.540]the market's pretty quiet
- [00:26:18.430]before and really active right after it,
- [00:26:21.990]and then it settles back down, okay?
- [00:26:23.930]And then it settles back down even for the next few days
- [00:26:26.190]'cause that information enters the market.
- [00:26:28.610]This one here is quite interesting.
- [00:26:34.610]If you were to trade the report before it released,
- [00:26:38.510]would you make a bunch of money, okay?
- [00:26:41.670]And so this kind of has underpinnings from folks thinking,
- [00:26:45.190]you know, someone's taking advantage of it,
- [00:26:46.870]someone has it earlier, there's, you know,
- [00:26:49.290]it's some type of conspiracy going on behind it.
- [00:26:54.290]Well, so these guys dug into this,
- [00:26:58.310]and they dug into it in a way that they looked back
- [00:27:01.750]and said, how much money could you make
- [00:27:03.950]in the historical WASDE's if you knew
- [00:27:07.270]which way it was gonna go?
- [00:27:08.910]Of course, they're looking at historical WASDE's,
- [00:27:11.570]and they don't know which way it's gonna go,
- [00:27:14.910]but they can give you
- [00:27:16.330]this upper bound of how much could be earned.
- [00:27:19.450]This model is engaged in forecasting
- [00:27:26.390]and estimates potential for contract returns
- [00:27:28.870]for firms considering investment
- [00:27:30.490]in endeavors to predict crop reports.
- [00:27:32.770]This is probably where I get my most heartache,
- [00:27:36.350]is right here, is that I hear a lot of people
- [00:27:39.290]that have opinions about the WASDE,
- [00:27:41.410]but yet I don't see them putting positions
- [00:27:43.610]in the market, i.e. skin in the game,
- [00:27:45.790]to actually trade their opinion.
- [00:27:49.810]And until you trade it, it is merely an opinion,
- [00:27:52.950]and I can't think much of it
- [00:27:55.690]until you start trading that opinion, okay?
- [00:27:59.230]I am trading my opinion right now.
- [00:28:01.510]I still have unpriced grain on the farm.
- [00:28:03.530]I expect it to go up,
- [00:28:05.390]but I'm very much into the seasonality on grains,
- [00:28:08.390]and I've sold a lot, still have some,
- [00:28:11.110]and that's my position right now.
- [00:28:13.330]So I do have an investment in it,
- [00:28:15.250]but I'm willing to take whatever the market gives me
- [00:28:17.870]because I know whatever I'm doing
- [00:28:19.490]is not guaranteed to make me money,
- [00:28:21.470]but I know on average I will make some money.
- [00:28:24.610]So I'm willing to put some money into this thing,
- [00:28:26.770]and that's a lot different than someone
- [00:28:28.110]just talking about the WASDE being wrong.
- [00:28:30.210]So what they found in this guy, sorry,
- [00:28:37.610]price movements are larger.
- [00:28:40.770]Sorry, this is what the literature that they cite shows.
- [00:28:44.710]Price movements are larger following USDA reports.
- [00:28:47.490]Okay, we know that.
- [00:28:50.110]But this is even after private businesses
- [00:28:52.450]already released their prediction.
- [00:28:54.370]So it shows who's the big dog on the block,
- [00:28:57.350]is the WASDE report, okay?
- [00:29:00.270]Reports released in the summertime going into the fall
- [00:29:03.530]caused greater change in the market prices
- [00:29:05.270]than other reports, okay?
- [00:29:06.870]Not too surprising, but that one's a little dated.
- [00:29:10.090]But the overall point here is that USDA reports matter,
- [00:29:13.210]and they still matter.
- [00:29:14.170]They matter today.
- [00:29:15.750]So what did this paper find?
- [00:29:18.710]So could you make money?
- [00:29:20.230]Well, yes.
- [00:29:22.550]You can have some pretty good returns
- [00:29:24.670]in the summer and fall months,
- [00:29:26.530]and the reason for the summer is just like as we know,
- [00:29:30.630]every summer is the critical growth stage influencing yield,
- [00:29:34.030]and we don't know what the heck's gonna happen.
- [00:29:36.810]And then in the fall, there's information coming in
- [00:29:39.930]about yields becoming available,
- [00:29:41.770]and so then the market really starts trading
- [00:29:43.630]that thing, and usually on the downward side.
- [00:29:46.850]So returns from trading to WASDE are noisy,
- [00:29:50.870]and that's 'cause there's errors, there's losses and gains.
- [00:29:53.990]So positive returns are not guaranteed
- [00:29:56.330]if you wanna put some money on this thing.
- [00:29:58.970]And then you have to take into account
- [00:30:00.710]all the other information entering the market
- [00:30:03.630]during these same timeframes.
- [00:30:06.030]Let's say trade stuff, value the dollar,
- [00:30:09.470]demand things from other places.
- [00:30:11.830]It gets really complicated,
- [00:30:13.090]really fast because everything is entering that price.
- [00:30:16.970]That price reflects all the active buyers and sellers.
- [00:30:21.510]And so there's a lot of noise in that price.
- [00:30:24.730]So WASDE research has impacted,
- [00:30:30.770]it's been done in a lot of different ways.
- [00:30:32.770]The clear big picture stuff is,
- [00:30:36.110]the report is respected by market participants still today.
- [00:30:40.330]And the USDA forecast,
- [00:30:42.550]USDA forecast can improve with better information.
- [00:30:45.790]And that is essentially right down the alley
- [00:30:48.510]of high quality survey responses.
- [00:30:51.170]If you want that to be improved,
- [00:30:53.230]that's what you can do as an individual.
- [00:30:55.930]Jessica, is this me or you?
- [00:31:01.210]- It's up to you.
- [00:31:03.090]If you wanna go ahead and pull up the actual report
- [00:31:05.370]so we can see the balance sheet and I pick a commodity,
- [00:31:09.110]any commodity, whichever one you wanna do.
- [00:31:10.790]- I did have the balance sheet
- [00:31:12.010]in a couple of slides.
- [00:31:13.930]- Oh, okay, it's up to you.
- [00:31:16.110]- Okay, yeah, let's keep going.
- [00:31:18.730]So the most recent report was January 10th
- [00:31:22.970]and here's a link to the report,
- [00:31:25.410]which you'll get a link to the slides.
- [00:31:28.150]So we'll get a couple of things out of this report,
- [00:31:30.550]but before we get to the report,
- [00:31:32.670]which is mainly what people focus on,
- [00:31:34.770]let's talk about the data inside the report
- [00:31:39.510]for a couple of slides.
- [00:31:41.310]So operator reported surveys.
- [00:31:44.690]For the December Ag Survey,
- [00:31:46.210]there was just under 74,000 responses.
- [00:31:50.250]This was also a stocks report.
- [00:31:52.410]So grain stocks, there was just under 8,000 facilities
- [00:31:57.410]surveyed.
- [00:31:58.770]Don't worry about the cotton here.
- [00:32:01.190]For field surveys, this was back earlier in the year.
- [00:32:06.190]This for yields prior to harvest,
- [00:32:10.610]there was just over 3,000 surveys, okay?
- [00:32:15.570]So there's a lot of data here.
- [00:32:18.970]And that data is over a large region.
- [00:32:23.970]And so here's what that December 24 survey sample sizes
- [00:32:30.170]look like by state, okay?
- [00:32:32.690]For Nebraska, there was just under 3,300 responses.
- [00:32:37.690]Other states,
- [00:32:39.710]Texas,
- [00:32:40.550]4,400.
- [00:32:42.010]Oklahoma,
- [00:32:42.850]2,500.
- [00:32:44.210]Jessica picked up quickly that Wyoming had 600 here
- [00:32:50.870]earlier.
- [00:32:51.950]There's some pretty good numbers here,
- [00:32:53.230]almost 3,000 in Iowa.
- [00:32:55.790]Missouri had over 3,000.
- [00:32:57.770]So there's a lot of data going on here.
- [00:33:01.590]And what we have to be careful with is when we see
- [00:33:04.650]that data that comes out of WASDE,
- [00:33:07.090]if we're out here in Western Nebraska and we see
- [00:33:10.490]certain things, we can't put our local lens
- [00:33:14.010]on it saying that's everywhere else.
- [00:33:16.390]And we're going to see that here in a bit
- [00:33:18.170]of why it's important to consider, you know,
- [00:33:20.950]the WASDE takes into account what's going on over here
- [00:33:24.650]in Indiana and Ohio because there could be very different
- [00:33:28.770]growing conditions that year.
- [00:33:32.730]A little bit here on principal crops planted.
- [00:33:35.270]They go over all these crops right here.
- [00:33:38.990]I'm not going to name them all.
- [00:33:40.430]And how they changed year over year.
- [00:33:42.930]Nebraska came in very similar with no change.
- [00:33:45.390]But some places really changed dramatically of these crops.
- [00:33:49.510]So they're moving to things outside of the principal crops.
- [00:33:55.750]Let's jump into the corn yield.
- [00:33:57.170]So if we were, this is back on like where Jessica's at out in Western Nebraska.
- [00:34:02.230]She doesn't see the 188 yield exactly, but that's what was
- [00:34:07.350]averaged across the state, but yet when you move
- [00:34:10.370]over into Iowa, they hit a 211 on average, and that's a record.
- [00:34:15.550]Same with Illinois, 217, and that's a record.
- [00:34:19.310]So there's some really good yields as you move in different directions.
- [00:34:24.130]Arkansas down here is also a record, and that's important to understand that we don't get
- [00:34:31.270]to see what's going on out here.
- [00:34:33.450]Even as Jessica pointed out earlier, if you had one friend in Illinois, they can't tell
- [00:34:38.430]you what the state is.
- [00:34:40.310]What's going on in the state.
- [00:34:42.870]It's an average over that whole thing, and that's tough to understand, that we need to
- [00:34:50.470]take that into account with those survey responses.
- [00:34:53.710]And then of course you get to see where the yields weren't so good.
- [00:34:56.350]This is 34 bushel less than the prior year, the change.
- [00:35:01.370]So a lot of variation here.
- [00:35:02.550]Nebraska was up a little bit, South Dakota was up pretty good, also a record.
- [00:35:09.090]Minnesota was down.
- [00:35:10.250]So, a lot of variation.
- [00:35:11.570]Things are up and down, and it depends on how the weather goes in those states.
- [00:35:18.170]Let's take a look at the industry expectations versus NAS.
- [00:35:23.410]So at the beginning of the year, or earlier in the year, those industry expectations,
- [00:35:29.430]there's a wide range of those things, and NAS came in kind of around it, it came in
- [00:35:33.330]a little higher in it, in it, and this last one, they were well below the industry expectations.
- [00:35:40.190]Which, if you notice, the industry expectations has quite a range in it, so they don't even
- [00:35:45.590]agree what's going on, simply because they just don't have enough data to see what's
- [00:35:51.990]going on, and it's easy to complain that maybe the WASDE's wrong, but again, it's about data.
- [00:36:01.090]Who has the data? Here's the current corn supply and demand, my first thing is this
- [00:36:10.130]guy up here, you got 23, 24, this guy's called an estimate, and then we got 24 going over
- [00:36:16.730]to 25, and that guy's called a forecast. So the estimate has actual data behind it, and
- [00:36:23.650]the forecast has almost zero data behind it. We're just starting this thing, so we're forecasting
- [00:36:33.250]into the future, so put less weight on this guy because it is simply a forecast, expect
- [00:36:38.050]it to change quite a bit.
- [00:36:40.070]Okay, so the estimate changed quite a bit from December 10, from a month ago, the production
- [00:36:49.050]came down quite a bit, and that's what moved the market, and we've seen that market recently
- [00:36:54.070]move up. Okay, that's the big mover right there.
- [00:36:58.010]Let's go over to soybeans, very similar story. Nebraska soybeans were off a little bit year
- [00:37:05.470]over year, but there were some states with records, a few of them down here.
- [00:37:10.010]I know nothing about the growing conditions in any of these states, but it's interesting
- [00:37:14.990]to see records. And again, large variation across them, we're up, sorry, I think I hit
- [00:37:25.990]South Dakota earlier, we were up on yields year over year, that makes more sense because
- [00:37:30.170]last year, 2023 was fairly rough, where South Dakota was down, North Dakota is up, Minnesota
- [00:37:36.270]is down. So a lot of variation going on around here, the U.S. state has to
- [00:37:39.950]gather all this and put it into one number, okay, and that can cause heartburn.
- [00:37:44.270]Similar thing here with industry expectations, and then that NASA estimate, it came in a
- [00:37:53.050]little bit less. And mind you, this is total production. I should have mentioned that on
- [00:37:58.350]the corn one. This is everything. So we're adding up all those different, all the yields
- [00:38:05.210]across all the states, the demand for every single one of them.
- [00:38:09.890]We're adding all that up into total production. And that could be tough to add up. That's
- [00:38:18.830]tough to add up. Soybean supply and demand, again, similar thing. The production would
- [00:38:24.710]change quite a bit month over month, so it also moved up. We do have a lot of resources
- [00:38:31.490]to help us with the WASDE. If you prefer not to read something, I would suggest checking
- [00:38:37.950]out the YouTube channel.
- [00:38:39.830]If you are curious more about the WASDE, please see the facts and resources to understand
- [00:39:00.190]more about it. If you are interested in what the WASDE is doing, or what other
- [00:39:09.770]outputs come from it, I would suggest reading reports from the Economic Research Service.
- [00:39:16.010]And a couple of interesting ones. There was one out in December, a US Ag Policy Review.
- [00:39:20.970]I have not had a chance to read it, but it looks pretty interesting. Another one just
- [00:39:25.290]a couple of months ago is the price of ethanol blends at the pump in short versus long term.
- [00:39:30.810]There's some discrepancies there. The economics of solar or agriculture, kind of curious about
- [00:39:36.950]that.
- [00:39:39.710]I don't know. Of course, you've got feed outlook and you've got the oil crops outlook
- [00:39:44.490]as well. So they take even a deeper dive into this stuff. And again, this stuff's all free,
- [00:39:49.190]so it's sitting there.
- [00:39:51.330]Let me give you my take on the WASDE, knowing that there's a lot of grief around it. It
- [00:40:01.610]is important because it influences your market. I'm commonly reminding myself, what would
- [00:40:08.350]the world look like?
- [00:40:09.650]With less transparency. I'm not sure I'd like that because I would have to spend money
- [00:40:15.770]trying to find out what is truth and what is not truth. And maybe other people would
- [00:40:22.790]spend less or maybe spend more and get the wrong information and then be in a worse place.
- [00:40:29.290]I'm commonly reminding myself to manage what I can manage. I know those WASDEs are coming.
- [00:40:36.190]I know that June acreage
- [00:40:39.590]plantings, prospective plantings in the spring and then the June one is coming. And the market
- [00:40:44.610]will move around that also with the grain stocks in there. So I'm ready for that. I
- [00:40:49.690]know the market will move. It may not go in the direction I like, but it's going to move.
- [00:40:54.250]So I'm going to be strategic in how I position myself before and after a WASDE.
- [00:40:59.110]I actually like the uncertainty. I like that this information enters the market and I want
- [00:41:05.390]to see what the market does. It may not always go the way I want it, but
- [00:41:09.530]I am not immediately thinking bad things or good things if it goes against or for my position.
- [00:41:18.910]I am accepting that as unbiased information and I have to manage that.
- [00:41:27.510]It is quite easy to give a WASDE a hard time, but it is much harder to help them improve.
- [00:41:35.730]They're under a lot of pressure to improve. They're trying to improve.
- [00:41:39.470]I can imagine with the changing technology coming, they're going to continue to improve.
- [00:41:47.370]Again, focus on what you can manage and that's your position.
- [00:41:53.590]My last one here is, if you think the WASDE is wrong, then the futures markets,
- [00:41:59.990]which reflect active traders, should adjust.
- [00:42:03.670]I would ask anyone who thinks it's wrong, what's your position in the futures market if you think
- [00:42:09.410]that thing is wrong?
- [00:42:10.890]If you don't have a position, then that's your opinion, and I don't have time in my business,
- [00:42:16.410]or in any business, to worry about opinions.
- [00:42:18.910]I have to deal with facts, and those facts are that futures market.
- [00:42:23.370]I have to deal with that thing, and I'm going to be very strategic with that,
- [00:42:27.430]and I need to clear out the noise so I can make good financial decisions to manage my farm
- [00:42:34.290]and to make sure I'm profitable and successful into the future.
- [00:42:39.350]Awesome. Well, thank you, Corey, for sharing that.
- [00:42:44.350]I am going to go ahead and put Corey and I on spotlight here.
- [00:42:51.370]We did have a couple of questions come through the chat while we were presenting.
- [00:42:57.370]So, again, if you have questions, we really encourage you to include them in the chat.
- [00:43:03.370]One of the questions was about whether or not basically that
- [00:43:09.290]USDA WASDE could impact cash rental rates.
- [00:43:15.230]And we do know that projections of crop prices can influence rental rates, right?
- [00:43:22.230]So as a farmer, I'm going to set this expectation of what I think that I will receive for my crop.
- [00:43:30.230]And so as I go into that negotiation with my landowner, I'm going to have that in the back of my head as I negotiate
- [00:43:39.230]the cash rental rate.
- [00:43:41.230]If you want to learn more about land values and cash rental rates, and actually about how commodity prices, both crops and livestock,
- [00:43:49.230]potentially impact those rental rates, I encourage you to check out our website, cap.unl.edu/land.
- [00:43:57.230]And that has the Nebraska Farm Real Estate Report, which is a really great place for you to learn about that information.
- [00:44:05.230]Now, do I have something that, you know, where we plug in?
- [00:44:09.170]WOSD numbers into a spreadsheet that tells us cash journal rate expectations?
- [00:44:14.170]No, we don't have something like that.
- [00:44:17.170]There are other extension services across the country that do have some information, spreadsheets, etc., that you can do that, but we do not.
- [00:44:32.170]The other question here was about yield forecasts and weather assumptions.
- [00:44:39.110]And I went ahead and put that document in the chat.
- [00:44:44.050]It's a scant 17 pages about how USDA NASS uses that data and that information and goes into those specific assumptions around production forecasts.
- [00:44:58.050]So rather than us rereading that to you, I would encourage you to check out that PDF.
- [00:45:05.050]So with that, go ahead, Corey.
- [00:45:07.050]Sorry, sorry.
- [00:45:09.050]So that was a yield forecast for the upcoming year as well, where they're just focusing on trend?
- [00:45:16.990]So again, I'd have to read into the exact piece here.
- [00:45:26.990]I'm looking at this guy right here.
- [00:45:30.990]Yeah. So it says here that the production forecasts have two components:
- [00:45:35.990]acres to be harvested and expected yields.
- [00:45:38.990]And then they talk about how they either do or don't integrate information into that through those assumptions.
- [00:45:47.990]So again, I would assume that's on the forecast side rather than the estimate side.
- [00:45:56.990]Okay.
- [00:46:00.990]So again, we're going to open it up for questions.
- [00:46:03.990]You can either type those in the chat or you can actually unmute yourself.
- [00:46:08.930]You can unmute yourself and turn your camera on if you would like.
- [00:46:11.930]Corey and I are happy to take any questions that you may have.
- [00:46:19.930]Or hear about your experiences with the WASDE or how you view it.
- [00:46:30.870]We must have something.
- [00:46:38.870]That was your chance.
- [00:46:41.870]I just thought it was nice to have a bullish report for once.
- [00:46:47.870]See the market go higher.
- [00:46:50.870]Sometimes we have to wait around for those a bit.
- [00:46:54.870]Yeah.
- [00:46:57.870]And it's -- when there's record yields, I'm back on the corn record yield map.
- [00:47:05.870]I count one, two, three.
- [00:47:08.810]Four, five, six, seven.
- [00:47:13.810]Seven states last year that had record yields.
- [00:47:17.810]It's -- that can have a long tail to get through before prices start going back up.
- [00:47:38.750]Any other thoughts or questions?
- [00:47:41.610]Or comments?
- [00:47:42.610]We could always ask Glenys.
- [00:47:53.610]All right.
- [00:47:55.610]Is there -- while you guys are thinking, is there any certain topics you guys would like to see in the future when we do this again in a couple weeks?
- [00:48:07.610]We kind of laid out a couple.
- [00:48:08.690]We've got a couple here, price pattern, seasonality, this SCO/ECO choice.
- [00:48:15.630]We have cost production down here.
- [00:48:17.630]I don't know if Glenys knows she's on time for this.
- [00:48:20.630]And then we've got another one here of what are you trying to do?
- [00:48:23.630]Are you trying to build wealth or are you just trying to have a min-tax financial plan?
- [00:48:29.630]Is there any certain topics that you guys would like to hear more about that you'd like us to dive into?
- [00:48:38.630]There must be something.
- [00:48:49.570]Okay.
- [00:48:55.570]Oh, we got two on basis. All right.
- [00:49:01.570]Yeah, I think that they're on the screen showing what the next couple weeks will be like
- [00:49:08.570]couple meetings. I think will be good and yeah basis, which I imagine that probably be kind of touch right in with the seasonality price patterns.
- [00:49:21.510]We can add that in. Absolutely.
- [00:49:25.510]Awesome.
- [00:49:31.510]Awesome. Well, I am going to launch a quick survey here if you don't mind.
- [00:49:38.510]If you have any questions after today or if you want us to bring up some different topics than are what on the list, feel free to leave those in the chat.
- [00:49:58.450]We did have one comment that came in as the survey was up.
- [00:50:01.450]So please go ahead and work on that survey and we'll answer this question.
- [00:50:06.450]And and Corey, I'm going to.
- [00:50:08.450]I'm going to kick it to you. And the question is, how much influence does South America have?
- [00:50:14.450]Oh, that's a fantastic question.
- [00:50:18.450]I do not have a solid answer for that. Besides, we know that that the Chinese are investing more in ports and rail infrastructure down there.
- [00:50:31.450]That's that's intriguing. Although the system, you know, is not not super well developed.
- [00:50:38.390]Their production prospects are growing and they face weather just just like we do.
- [00:50:45.390]So I'd say it's growing in influence.
- [00:50:50.390]But as far as where it's at, I couldn't tell you.
- [00:50:54.390]Besides, it will always lead to volatility when something negative happens down there or something positive happens down there.
- [00:51:01.390]And of course, as we know now, you know, they're in their growing season. So it's more.
- [00:51:08.330]More supply coming on the market soon.
- [00:51:16.330]So another question or comment was, I'd love to hear more about the policy side of things.
- [00:51:21.330]If you keep up with what's going on in Congress and seeing how that affects the upcoming season.
- [00:51:29.330]Does that mean farm bill or we're talking conservation stuff, we're talking crop insurance policy, which which one?
- [00:51:38.270]It doesn't specify. So I think we could take all of those, Corey.
- [00:51:44.270]All of them. OK. It says anything you're excited about.
- [00:51:48.270]So I'm sure on the crop insurance side, we'll get to hear some some interesting thoughts from Corey about that.
- [00:51:56.270]Yeah, I mean, just to lay the game, the crop insurance policy, design subsidies, all that is, you know, the big dog on the block.
- [00:52:08.210]Also, probably the likely the last one to go, but also the most complicated because there's so many choices.
- [00:52:13.150]All right. Well, with that, I don't see any additional comments coming in again.
- [00:52:23.670]We'll see you in two weeks. And thank you for joining us today. Thanks, everybody.
- [00:52:28.970]Thank you, everyone.
- [00:52:30.470]Thank you.
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