Long Range Weather Outlook

Don Day Author

08/29/2022 Added

18 Plays

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Don Day speaks about the long range weather outlook at the 2022 GSL Open House

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[00:00:00.345](soft guitar music)
[00:00:07.080]Our next speaker is Don Day.
[00:00:09.030]He will be covering long range weather forecast
[00:00:12.090]with us this morning.
[00:00:14.070]And Don Day Jr. is the President and Chief Meteorologist
[00:00:18.630]for DayWeather, Inc.
[00:00:20.310]For over 30 years,
[00:00:21.570]Don and his DayWeather meteorologists
[00:00:24.000]have provided customized broadcast weather services
[00:00:27.300]to over 70 radio stations across Wyoming, Colorado,
[00:00:31.110]and Nebraska with emphasis on the (indistinct)
[00:00:33.750]and Ag listener.
[00:00:35.730]Day also specializes in weather forecasting
[00:00:38.580]and analysis for stratospheric aviation
[00:00:41.760]with emphasis on the lighter than air vehicles.
[00:00:45.120]So airships, balloons,
[00:00:46.830]and other very high altitude experiments.
[00:00:50.280]DayWeather also provides long range
[00:00:52.650]and seasonal weather forecast for agriculture
[00:00:54.840]and other private industries with an emphasis
[00:00:57.630]on long-term and known historic trends
[00:01:01.110]and ocean temperature and ocean circulations.
[00:01:04.590]Don also utilizes analog forecast principles,
[00:01:08.220]which are more weighted to past observed weather events
[00:01:11.310]and patterns as opposed to computer modeling.
[00:01:14.190]Day believes the key to accurate long-range forecasts
[00:01:17.070]are combination of identifying past weather patterns
[00:01:20.460]and comparing those pattern forecast
[00:01:22.320]by modern computer modeling.
[00:01:24.270]So welcome, Don.
[00:01:26.280]And we should have you up and running this morning
[00:01:30.090]and I'll turn the floor over to you.
[00:01:33.660]So I have the opportunity this morning,
[00:01:35.910]thank you for letting me join you guys.
[00:01:38.794]I certainly know it's been a difficult
[00:01:41.850]last couple of years for sure.
[00:01:44.070]And I'm a mixture of good news
[00:01:47.670]and I'm a mixture of bad news.
[00:01:49.350]But ultimately, at the end of the presentation,
[00:01:51.870]hopefully it's gonna be mostly good news in terms of
[00:01:55.170]what we're looking at in terms is the "Long Range Outlook."
[00:01:57.720]I do think we're kind of getting,
[00:01:59.610]or we'll be getting over the hump
[00:02:01.710]in terms of the drought here over the next six
[00:02:03.750]to nine months,
[00:02:04.583]and I'll be able to tell you why.
[00:02:07.620]But first of all, I just kind of wanna see...
[00:02:09.900]Take a look at where we are so far
[00:02:12.642]in terms of this summer season so far
[00:02:15.870]with temperatures and precipitation.
[00:02:19.350]So what we're looking at right now is really the month
[00:02:21.630]to date temperatures so far.
[00:02:24.120]Anywhere you see yellow or the orange colors,
[00:02:27.090]it's been above normal.
[00:02:28.620]It looks like and it feels like Nebraska has been picked on.
[00:02:31.710]And if you think Nebraska has been picked on
[00:02:33.870]when I show you these maps,
[00:02:34.860]you're gonna really think that's true
[00:02:36.570]because it is.
[00:02:39.000]This is what it looks like for the last 90 days,
[00:02:42.390]so the heat of the United States, the lower 48 states,
[00:02:46.410]the most extreme heat's been South Dakota to Texas,
[00:02:49.790]in that north-south axis there
[00:02:51.780]with Texas, Oklahoma and Nebraska taking the brunt of it
[00:02:55.620]in terms of the heat.
[00:02:57.780]I think for the rest of August will likely continue
[00:03:00.690]to be warmer than normal,
[00:03:01.800]just not at the pace that we were in June and July.
[00:03:05.070]If we were to compare a year ago,
[00:03:07.350]the last 90-day period looks like this.
[00:03:10.500]So it's two summers in a row of being warm.
[00:03:14.130]But actually, if you look at this map,
[00:03:16.260]the last 90 days in the 90-day period in 2021
[00:03:19.860]compared to where we are now,
[00:03:23.100]it's actually been a little bit warmer than normal.
[00:03:25.110]But essentially, it's been two summers in a row here
[00:03:29.190]where we've had to deal with above normal temperatures
[00:03:31.320]while the Southern Plane, not so much.
[00:03:33.810]So what I'm gonna do is I'm gonna depth through
[00:03:36.780]what I think the winter's gonna look like.
[00:03:39.810]And I'm gonna back that up
[00:03:41.820]and try to give you as much science as I possibly can
[00:03:44.910]to tell you why we think this,
[00:03:46.703]why we are formulating the forecast in the way
[00:03:50.010]that we're doing it.
[00:03:51.300]So the main big factor,
[00:03:54.390]the main things that are gonna be impacting us
[00:03:57.150]this winter season are similar to
[00:03:59.392]what we call analog years,
[00:04:02.550]winter seasons that we think are gonna be similar this year
[00:04:06.690]and in the next year compared
[00:04:08.160]to what we've seen in the past.
[00:04:10.080]The winter of 2010 and '11, and the winter 2013 and '14
[00:04:14.790]are winter seasons we're looking at as being analogous
[00:04:19.410]to what might be coming.
[00:04:21.420]I cannot tell you how critical this La Nina pattern
[00:04:25.980]has been here over the last two and a half years.
[00:04:30.300]Unfortunately, and I say unfortunately,
[00:04:32.610]because La Nina, nothing good about La Nina at all
[00:04:36.570]for this part of the country.
[00:04:37.740]It's gonna continue through the early fall of winter.
[00:04:41.430]It should be made note that this is a multi-year La Nina
[00:04:46.020]that started in 2020,
[00:04:48.330]and it's gonna go into its third winter season.
[00:04:50.940]We've only seen three-year La Ninas three times since 1950.
[00:04:58.350]La Nina can go a year or two, that's normally what they do.
[00:05:02.130]But going two to three years is certainly a problem
[00:05:06.660]because the dryer and warmer than normal conditions
[00:05:09.630]really takes its toll.
[00:05:11.190]So since 1950,
[00:05:12.480]this is only the third multi-year La Nina.
[00:05:14.700]And interestingly enough,
[00:05:16.680]the last multi-year La Nina was 2011-2012
[00:05:22.140]in that late 2010-2012 timeframe.
[00:05:25.380]So the last real severe La Nina
[00:05:30.090]was when we had a similar pattern
[00:05:32.910]to what we've been experiencing the last couple of years.
[00:05:35.640]Now, the good news is, we're pretty confident
[00:05:38.610]that we're gonna see the La Nina over
[00:05:40.980]probably by the first of the year.
[00:05:43.140]Which means that with La Nina going away,
[00:05:46.860]the worst of the drought signal,
[00:05:48.450]the worst of the pattern
[00:05:49.800]that creates Western high plane's drought
[00:05:52.590]should be going away,
[00:05:54.600]which means we might be getting over a hump here.
[00:05:57.150]I would say that the odds of a four-year La Nina are low,
[00:06:02.160]and there's a couple of reasons why
[00:06:03.570]there's gonna be that way.
[00:06:05.160]Now, one thing that's gonna happen this winter,
[00:06:07.170]and I think this is gonna be tricky for producers
[00:06:09.240]in this part of the country is,
[00:06:10.920]the fall season and maybe the very beginnings of winter,
[00:06:14.730]we're still gonna be in La Nina.
[00:06:16.920]Which means the fall season,
[00:06:20.220]September, October into November,
[00:06:22.350]may be warmer and drier than normal.
[00:06:24.510]So basically a continuation of the La Nina pattern.
[00:06:28.320]But then as we go outta La Nina into
[00:06:30.930]what we call Neutral Conditions,
[00:06:32.460]which means it's not a La Nina or El Nino,
[00:06:35.160]it's a bit of a wild card.
[00:06:37.020]So this winter's different in the sense compared
[00:06:40.500]to the last two, is La Nina's gonna be fading
[00:06:44.040]instead of persisting.
[00:06:45.900]And that sea surface temperature change through the winter
[00:06:48.840]as we transition outta La Nina will be really important.
[00:06:51.900]The North Pacific and the Gulf of Alaska
[00:06:53.910]is something I'm gonna show you and talk about,
[00:06:56.160]because I do think we have some strong signals
[00:07:00.060]that we've got some pretty cold weather coming this winter
[00:07:02.490]for Nebraska and surrounding states.
[00:07:05.160]We're well into the next solar cycle, which is good.
[00:07:07.380]Without talking too much about solar cycles,
[00:07:10.020]we do notice the La Nina's last longer during
[00:07:13.920]or just after solar minimums which occurred in 2020.
[00:07:18.300]The last solar minimum was 2011, 2012, same timeframe.
[00:07:24.120]So with us going into the next solar cycle,
[00:07:27.330]it gets harder for that La Nina to keep on going.
[00:07:30.390]So with the analog forecasting technique that we use,
[00:07:33.600]these are the things we're gonna look at,
[00:07:34.980]sea service temperatures, but also a lot of history.
[00:07:38.220]Less reliance on computer modeling,
[00:07:39.990]I am gonna show you computer models.
[00:07:42.540]However, my forecast is based less on computer modeling,
[00:07:47.250]but more in what these historical trends
[00:07:49.050]have shown us in similar situations.
[00:07:51.480]And that's why those analog years in 2010, '11, and '13
[00:07:54.953]and '14 are what we're looking at.
[00:07:57.210]So I always like to say that the mystery of a forecast
[00:08:03.150]is in the history.
[00:08:04.680]Which means the better understanding you have
[00:08:07.140]of historical weather patterns similar
[00:08:09.450]to what we're living in now,
[00:08:11.587]solves a little bit of the mystery in the forecast,
[00:08:15.180]which that gives us that less reliance on computer modeling.
[00:08:19.410]So I'm showing you a map here with a lot of colors on it.
[00:08:23.277]All I really want you to notice here is
[00:08:25.500]that blue area and those green areas
[00:08:29.160]between South America and Northeast of Australia there.
[00:08:32.730]Those cooler than normal sea surface temperatures,
[00:08:35.430]that's the cool water you're seeing there in the tropics,
[00:08:38.880]that's La Nina.
[00:08:40.500]That is a classic La Nina signature
[00:08:44.280]to where those subtropical waters,
[00:08:47.490]when they cool even a half a degree Celsius,
[00:08:50.430]one degree Celsius, two degree Celsius,
[00:08:52.950]that is enough, believe it or not,
[00:08:55.170]to completely upend precipitation patterns in the western
[00:08:59.070]and central areas of the United States,
[00:09:00.690]but also South America as well.
[00:09:03.390]So La Nina is a colder phenomenon in the Tropical Pacific,
[00:09:09.840]not a warmer one, that warmer one is an El Nino.
[00:09:13.590]Simply put, there's a lot going on with La Ninas.
[00:09:16.980]But if you have colder than average sea surface temperatures
[00:09:20.490]in the tropics,
[00:09:21.930]there's less water going into the air,
[00:09:25.530]less water to turn into rain and snow,
[00:09:28.290]heading into this part of the United States
[00:09:31.110]and in a large part of Western North America.
[00:09:33.390]It also reverses the wind pattern in the Pacific.
[00:09:36.780]It pushes the winds towards Australia
[00:09:39.600]that carry the moisture.
[00:09:41.220]Australia has wet conditions in a La Nina
[00:09:45.120]because the winds blow the moisture in their direction.
[00:09:47.730]So there's nothing good about La Nina.
[00:09:49.890]La Nina's responsible for drought,
[00:09:52.650]La Nina's responsible for above normal temperatures.
[00:09:55.350]And remember how maybe
[00:09:57.960]it was just a little windy this spring,
[00:10:02.610]the wind was just incessantly bad this spring,
[00:10:05.250]and that is a classic La Nina pattern.
[00:10:08.040]So it's ultimately good news across the board
[00:10:10.770]that this La Nina's gonna go away.
[00:10:13.470]What this graph is just showing you are the cold
[00:10:15.630]and warm cycles in the Pacific,
[00:10:17.600]in that same area that I showed you before.
[00:10:20.250]And what is of interest,
[00:10:21.390]I want you to look at all the way
[00:10:22.680]on the right side of the graph there,
[00:10:23.970]and you see all the blue that started there
[00:10:26.610]right around 2020.
[00:10:28.500]So basically this shows you how strong
[00:10:32.400]this La Nina has been.
[00:10:33.870]If you look back at the La Nina that was strong as
[00:10:38.580]or stronger than this one,
[00:10:39.990]you gotta go back to that same time,
[00:10:42.360]right around 2010 to 2012.
[00:10:45.300]And then the other strong La Nina was from 1999,
[00:10:50.250]late 1998 into 2001.
[00:10:53.400]So for those of you who remember the worst drought cycles
[00:10:58.230]that we've experienced in this country
[00:11:00.300]have happened '99 to 2001 to 2010 to 2012,
[00:11:06.360]and here we go, 2020 to 2022.
[00:11:09.450]Notice they're happening about every 10, 11 years or so.
[00:11:13.560]If you go back into the 1980s
[00:11:15.360]and go look further back in time,
[00:11:18.150]you notice the Pacific was warmer.
[00:11:20.520]And you see all that red?
[00:11:21.750]We had stronger El Ninos.
[00:11:23.580]So unfortunately, we're in a cycle of colder conditions
[00:11:27.060]in the Pacific,
[00:11:28.170]which is a drought signature for this part of the world.
[00:11:30.270]I know the presentation before me showed you these maps.
[00:11:33.810]I'm just gonna go through 'em really quickly,
[00:11:35.970]the latest drought monitor from last week.
[00:11:38.040]What I want you to notice though is
[00:11:39.600]that there has been a definite shift
[00:11:41.760]in some of the drought conditions compared to last summer.
[00:11:45.030]Last summer, those drought conditions
[00:11:46.740]were really the Dakotas, Montanas,
[00:11:49.350]going back into the Great Basin,
[00:11:51.360]but there's a southward shift.
[00:11:53.700]However, Nebraska can't seem to win, right?
[00:11:57.240]We were in it last year, we're in it this year,
[00:12:00.000]while conditions change all the way through
[00:12:02.520]into those southern areas.
[00:12:04.110]But there's been improvement in the northern areas.
[00:12:06.720]And what I think we're gonna see
[00:12:08.520]is improvement work its way south
[00:12:11.400]with the Southern planes last to see the improvement,
[00:12:15.060]California lasts to see the improvement.
[00:12:17.760]But conditions with precipitation next,
[00:12:20.700]late winter and spring should be getting better.
[00:12:23.610]So this is where we are now,
[00:12:26.040]this is where we were a year ago with the La Nina.
[00:12:29.000]La Nina at this time last summer
[00:12:31.710]was actually weaker than it is now.
[00:12:33.630]It actually got stronger and not weaker,
[00:12:36.270]which is something the computer models
[00:12:38.370]did an absolutely important job at.
[00:12:41.700]The one thing that we use as a tool
[00:12:44.280]is predictions of sea surface temperature
[00:12:46.440]using a variety of models.
[00:12:48.540]And I'll show you here at graph in a minute
[00:12:50.640]that shows you how badly it ended up doing.
[00:12:52.800]This is what it looked like in 2010 for August of 2010.
[00:12:58.170]Not exactly the same,
[00:12:59.550]but you can see a very robust La Nina
[00:13:01.530]going into the fall of 2010.
[00:13:04.170]Now, we're going to be looking at a bit
[00:13:06.660]of a different situation six to nine months from now,
[00:13:10.020]but you can see there's some similarities there.
[00:13:14.250]What I'm showing you is one of these model predictions.
[00:13:17.340]And what I want you to pay attention to is
[00:13:19.050]that solid green line.
[00:13:21.420]That solid green line represents the prediction of
[00:13:26.730]what the La Nina or El Nino situation
[00:13:30.000]is going to be over time.
[00:13:31.980]Those letters you see at the bottom are three month periods.
[00:13:35.448]And anything below that 0.0 line
[00:13:38.790]is gonna be a colder Pacific,
[00:13:40.410]which means basically a La Nina stage.
[00:13:42.600]The official La Nina stage
[00:13:44.490]is a half degree Celsius below average,
[00:13:47.670]which is you can see - 0.5 there.
[00:13:51.900]Notice that solid green line
[00:13:53.550]which is an average of all those computer models starts
[00:13:57.420]to go back to the zero line,
[00:13:59.760]gets near there January, February, March,
[00:14:02.100]and by April...
[00:14:03.720]March, April, May, it's into a warmer status.
[00:14:07.170]Now, this is why we're encouraged,
[00:14:09.870]it's one reason why we're encouraged
[00:14:12.270]that this La Nina's gonna go away.
[00:14:14.517]And the opportunity for the Pacific
[00:14:16.440]to get colder in the spring is less.
[00:14:20.040]It's easier to get it warmer in the spring
[00:14:21.840]with the sun angles changing out in the water.
[00:14:24.630]I told you that last year's forecast was awful.
[00:14:28.680]And here's last year's forecast from October of 2021.
[00:14:33.690]Notice the green line was saying the same thing.
[00:14:37.140]Last year, at this time,
[00:14:38.550]the model was predicting that La Nina was gonna go away,
[00:14:42.240]which was good news.
[00:14:44.070]But it didn't,
[00:14:45.210]it actually strengthened and held on a little bit longer.
[00:14:48.570]So throw out a little bit of a word of caution here
[00:14:51.720]on these computer models.
[00:14:53.580]Models are tools, models are not reality.
[00:14:56.850]So you may be saying,
[00:14:57.697]"Why am I more confident
[00:14:59.862]that the forecast I just showed you here
[00:15:03.334]showing La Nina coming to an end this winter and spring
[00:15:07.329]is a different situation to this bad model forecast here?"
[00:15:12.510]Well, I will tell you a lot of it has to do with solar.
[00:15:15.810]We're a year further removed from the solar minimum.
[00:15:19.410]You've been probably hearing about auroras, solar flares,
[00:15:23.100]more sun-sought activity,
[00:15:25.270]long story short that does impact conditions
[00:15:29.310]and the amount of cloud cover in the Pacific Basin,
[00:15:32.040]and it should lead to the Pacific able to get warmer
[00:15:35.520]as we go into 2023, 2024, probably into 2025.
[00:15:40.920]So a further remove from the solar minimum
[00:15:45.240]is going to help us,
[00:15:47.220]and everything that we can see
[00:15:48.450]is really gonna be helpful.
[00:15:50.340]One thing I wanted to point out,
[00:15:52.320]this is something I've come across in the past year,
[00:15:55.500]and it completely relates
[00:15:57.270]to this whole La Nina-El Nino situation that we're in.
[00:16:01.770]There is a paper that came out
[00:16:03.657]from Colorado State University a little bit more
[00:16:06.960]than a year ago.
[00:16:09.150]And now it says, "Stocking decisions for Eastern Colorado."
[00:16:12.570]But I think this paper has the ability
[00:16:16.980]to be used for Central and Western Nebraska,
[00:16:20.220]Eastern Wyoming, the Western Dakotas as well.
[00:16:23.070]Because what it is,
[00:16:23.970]it's a paper that historically looks back
[00:16:26.550]at 80 years of beef weights, tail weights,
[00:16:31.020]and whether or not those tail weights
[00:16:32.700]may have been impacted by La Nina or El Nino cycles
[00:16:36.360]and maybe how to stay ahead of those cycles.
[00:16:39.240]If you're not familiar with this paper yet,
[00:16:41.610]I've got my email on the screen, dropping an email,
[00:16:44.010]I'm happy to send it to you.
[00:16:46.170]But it's very much worth your while
[00:16:47.730]to have this in your toolkit.
[00:16:49.590]So when people like myself come
[00:16:51.570]and make presentations and say,
[00:16:52.777]"We got an El Nino coming, or we got a La Nina coming,"
[00:16:56.010]this is a really good resource.
[00:16:58.500]I'm more than happy to forward that along.
[00:17:01.530]So what I'm gonna show you
[00:17:02.640]is I'm gonna go into the forecast now.
[00:17:05.100]And what I'm gonna do is give you
[00:17:07.897]what's called an SST Anomaly.
[00:17:09.420]So I'm sorry to throw out an acronym at you,
[00:17:11.880]we get too many of these.
[00:17:12.990]But basically, sea surface temperature anomaly,
[00:17:15.870]all that means is the Subtropical Pacific
[00:17:19.950]is gonna get warmer, colder,
[00:17:22.140]or stay the same as we go through the winter
[00:17:25.110]and spring season.
[00:17:26.340]So I like to show this to people
[00:17:28.110]so they get a visual representation
[00:17:30.120]of what's going on in the oceans,
[00:17:33.330]so you have an idea of how
[00:17:34.680]that's going to impact our weather.
[00:17:37.410]So what I want you to focus in on is
[00:17:39.630]that same area between South America and Australia.
[00:17:43.050]Wherever you see the blues or the greens,
[00:17:45.540]those are the colder waters,
[00:17:47.310]the reds and the oranges over the water temperatures
[00:17:49.800]are relative to normal warmer.
[00:17:52.110]It doesn't mean those
[00:17:53.040]are skinny dipping type sea surface temperatures that go in,
[00:17:56.880]it's just relative to average it's gonna be warmer.
[00:17:59.790]So this is for the month of September.
[00:18:01.560]What I want you to do is watch as I step forward
[00:18:05.310]on these graphics.
[00:18:06.750]So this is September, the La Nina,
[00:18:10.890]October, still La Nina.
[00:18:13.410]November, it is...
[00:18:14.910]Boy, I tell you, this is a stubborn La Nina,
[00:18:16.920]it's still there.
[00:18:18.750]But I want you to notice that area of red
[00:18:20.610]just off the coast of Chile there,
[00:18:22.830]off the West Coast of South America is some red showing up.
[00:18:26.760]So through the next three months;
[00:18:28.770]September, October, November,
[00:18:30.150]we're gonna be still in the La Nina pattern.
[00:18:32.700]Which means it is likely gonna be on the whole warmer
[00:18:37.140]and drier than normal through that period,
[00:18:39.453]much like it was last fall.
[00:18:42.480]And when we take a look at December, it's still there,
[00:18:45.930]but you start to notice things as we get into the new year.
[00:18:49.200]By January, that red area west of South America
[00:18:52.410]is expanding.
[00:18:54.210]And as we go into February, as we go into March,
[00:18:58.020]notice by the time we get into April,
[00:19:01.290]that whole anomaly of colder than normal conditions
[00:19:05.970]that we have here begin to fade.
[00:19:09.840]And by April and then into May,
[00:19:11.970]May's actually showing a weak El Nino.
[00:19:14.250]I don't wanna say we're going into an El Nino situation,
[00:19:18.185]I think it's too early to say that.
[00:19:20.370]But certainly this is a strong signal
[00:19:22.290]that La Nina is going away.
[00:19:23.637]The other thing I want you to look at is the Gulf of Alaska.
[00:19:26.760]You see that red patch?
[00:19:28.800]That doesn't mean the water temperatures are really warm,
[00:19:31.470]It's just relative to the 3-year average
[00:19:33.630]they're warmer than normal.
[00:19:35.400]That warm pool up there in the Gulf of Alaska
[00:19:39.210]which starts to build in December
[00:19:41.190]and go into February, January,
[00:19:44.130]that actually is a cold signal for the lower 48 states.
[00:19:49.470]Because what tends to happen is we tend
[00:19:51.660]to see high pressure build in the Gulf of Alaska
[00:19:53.850]in the winter,
[00:19:54.683]which causes the jet stream to take dips south,
[00:19:57.810]further south into the lower 48.
[00:19:59.990]So this is why we think
[00:20:01.800]that despite a warmer than normal fall,
[00:20:05.310]the winter season is gonna go 180
[00:20:08.190]and we're gonna start to see conditions,
[00:20:10.590]start to get like, well, this graphic here.
[00:20:13.500]We're gonna see more of this,
[00:20:14.670]this winter than the last couple for sure.
[00:20:17.220]What did the winter November through March look like
[00:20:20.070]in 2010 and '11?
[00:20:21.930]It looked like this.
[00:20:23.250]Most of the lower 48 states was colder than normal.
[00:20:26.070]Especially notice the Eastern side of the divide
[00:20:30.243]into the Continental Divide,
[00:20:31.710]into the North Central United States.
[00:20:34.107]And I think we're gonna see a similar pattern
[00:20:36.030]with temperatures this year.
[00:20:38.280]So when we go into the long range forecast,
[00:20:41.340]this adds everything up from November through March.
[00:20:45.750]So I think the coldest temperatures relative
[00:20:47.790]to average will be in this part of the world,
[00:20:51.450]the North Central Plains, the Western High Plains
[00:20:54.900]going all the way down into the Gulf Coast region
[00:20:57.810]while only California,
[00:21:00.210]Southwest United States likely gonna be warmer
[00:21:02.550]than normal on the whole.
[00:21:04.320]And I think it's the second half of winter after Christmas,
[00:21:09.330]or just before Christmas,
[00:21:12.000]all the way through the early part of spring,
[00:21:14.730]there's a pretty strong signal
[00:21:16.140]of colder than normal temperatures.
[00:21:17.460]How cold?
[00:21:18.420]Now, I told you I wasn't gonna show you many models,
[00:21:20.190]but I had to show you this.
[00:21:21.870]This is from the Climate Forecast System of a model
[00:21:24.270]that just ran last night.
[00:21:26.220]So this is all of the cumulative temperatures
[00:21:29.520]for January, February and March of 2023
[00:21:33.180]looks a lot like the graphic I just showed you
[00:21:35.610]where those greens and those blues show
[00:21:38.700]where temperatures relative to average will be below normal.
[00:21:41.940]And this is a signal we continue to see all the time.
[00:21:44.550]And if La Nina goes away,
[00:21:46.350]the confidence level that this forecast will be right,
[00:21:49.170]is increasing.
[00:21:51.000]So we're continuing to see this signal right there.
[00:21:54.210]When it comes to precipitation from November to March,
[00:21:57.960]this is different than the last two years.
[00:22:01.020]We are expecting that with the onset
[00:22:04.410]of colder winter weather, there should be more snow events.
[00:22:09.494]Now, January and February as you know,
[00:22:12.180]is not normally very wet in your part of the world.
[00:22:16.320]It's traditionally January and February
[00:22:18.645]from a climatological standpoint,
[00:22:20.520]are the two driest months of the year on average.
[00:22:23.910]So even if you have an above normal January
[00:22:26.337]and February with snowfall,
[00:22:28.140]it does not necessarily translate
[00:22:29.670]to a lot of water helping your range lands.
[00:22:32.430]Where I think we're gonna benefit
[00:22:34.470]is gonna be on the backside,
[00:22:36.360]which means we most likely should have a much better March,
[00:22:40.680]a much better April, and a much better May
[00:22:44.460]than the last two years.
[00:22:46.290]As long as that La Nina goes away,
[00:22:48.570]the "Normal" spring patterns will evolve.
[00:22:54.900]Also, if we have La Nina going away,
[00:22:58.620]we have less wind in the spring.
[00:23:00.930]If we have less wind,
[00:23:03.270]then we're going to have less evaporation,
[00:23:05.520]which helps as well.
[00:23:06.690]Now, I live in Cheyenne, Wyoming.
[00:23:09.030]I never wanna say no winds, right?
[00:23:11.280]That just not gonna happen around here.
[00:23:13.530]But less wind is how the best way to describe it
[00:23:18.090]as we go into the winter and spring season.
[00:23:20.400]So this is a double-edged sword
[00:23:22.890]in terms of precipitation conditions this winter,
[00:23:28.140]which is for us to get more wet going into winter
[00:23:33.480]and spring, we gotta get rid of this La Nina.
[00:23:37.230]which does mean we may have
[00:23:38.580]to have some harsh winter weather conditions to get through.
[00:23:42.570]One example is as North Dakota this winter,
[00:23:45.829]I showed you the drought map where North Dakota
[00:23:47.970]is essentially out of the drought,
[00:23:49.440]but they had to suffer through some major blizzards,
[00:23:52.380]awful conditions in the Dakotas Eastern Montana.
[00:23:56.670]I'm not predicting blizzards of that intensity
[00:24:00.330]in Nebraska this winter, I do think we need to watch it.
[00:24:03.600]Especially late spring storms,
[00:24:05.580]I do think there is a higher elevated risk of
[00:24:08.250]that for Nebraska this year.
[00:24:10.530]But we kind of have to have that
[00:24:13.352]before we get to the better situation.
[00:24:16.140]So if I were to kind of break this down a little bit,
[00:24:20.040]these winter seasons of 2010 and 2011 is definitely
[00:24:25.680]what we're looking at.
[00:24:27.540]And 2013 and '14 is another year to look at.
[00:24:30.390]So if you wanna go back in your records for your location,
[00:24:34.350]look at what you had for those years,
[00:24:36.300]I would use those as a guide.
[00:24:38.910]So this is kind of a recap to what I talked about.
[00:24:41.100]The fall season is gonna bring high variability,
[00:24:43.920]meaning, do not be surprised
[00:24:46.740]if we have a couple of pretty significant
[00:24:48.540]cold fronts this fall, but they're not gonna stick.
[00:24:51.660]Meaning, it's not gonna get cold in September
[00:24:55.200]and October and stay cold.
[00:24:56.490]And I think November's gonna be the same way.
[00:24:58.770]But there could be some variability swings
[00:25:01.590]and temperatures and precipitation if they usually are.
[00:25:04.800]But if you wanna know how this fall's gonna go,
[00:25:07.290]just look at the last two.
[00:25:08.610]I think that's the best way to describe
[00:25:10.800]what's gonna happen through the month of November.
[00:25:15.120]We really do feel strongly
[00:25:16.860]that the probability of a cold winter is pretty strong
[00:25:20.220]and in those areas I just looked at.
[00:25:23.040]So I do think that there is a high probability
[00:25:26.586]that we're gonna have some pretty cold episodes this season,
[00:25:29.850]and it's gonna be cold that may stick.
[00:25:32.700]This is a situation where you have less Chinook,
[00:25:36.390]especially January, February, and March,
[00:25:39.090]that can warm us up.
[00:25:41.031]Once that cold air gets pushed in
[00:25:43.140]especially if we have snow cover,
[00:25:45.120]it can kinda stick a little bit.
[00:25:47.280]Now the Continental Divide I think
[00:25:49.410]is gonna be a dividing line.
[00:25:51.690]So the dividing line,
[00:25:52.680]I think for where the real coldest winter
[00:25:54.810]will be east of the divide
[00:25:56.280]through the Great Lakes in Cornell.
[00:25:58.470]I think that's gonna be the area of the United States
[00:26:00.630]that's gonna be the coldest.
[00:26:02.670]We could have a lot of wind again,
[00:26:03.990]but I think it's gonna be on the front end.
[00:26:06.210]Spring, as I just mentioned, won't be as bad.
[00:26:08.430]So if we're gonna have windy periods, it's gonna be early.
[00:26:13.140]For the Western United States as a whole,
[00:26:16.320]there's gonna be improvement in California,
[00:26:18.510]the Great Basin and the Southern Rockies.
[00:26:20.580]The Southern Rockies have had an incredible monsoon season,
[00:26:23.700]you've probably heard it on the news
[00:26:24.840]about all the rain in Arizona
[00:26:26.580]and parts of Colorado and New Mexico.
[00:26:28.680]Well, that monsoon will fade,
[00:26:30.090]but they should have a better season.
[00:26:32.730]It's not gonna be until we get into an El Nino
[00:26:35.190]where California's situation get better.
[00:26:38.370]So what I think you're gonna see on the drought monitor
[00:26:41.130]is a shrinking of drought conditions by next spring.
[00:26:45.000]Here in the Northern Central Plains,
[00:26:47.820]you'll see improvements continue in Nebraska, Wyoming,
[00:26:51.630]Colorado, then into Kansas.
[00:26:54.390]But not really getting into places like Oklahoma, Texas,
[00:26:57.810]and California, the Southwest
[00:26:59.970]until probably the next season, the '23-'24 season.
[00:27:04.170]So it's gonna be improvement north to south,
[00:27:07.020]and we saw that in the Dakotas last year.
[00:27:09.210]I do expect a better snow pack compared
[00:27:12.090]to the last couple of years
[00:27:13.140]because of this more active pattern as well,
[00:27:16.020]whether or not that's gonna fill (indistinct), probably not.
[00:27:18.660]But it's not gonna hurt in terms of everything else there.
[00:27:22.200]Energy stress is something may or may not impact you or not.
[00:27:27.480]But as of this morning,
[00:27:29.520]natural gas prices were trading above $9.
[00:27:33.090]There is a real, real risk of energy stress
[00:27:37.410]this winter season with your utilities.
[00:27:40.620]If natural gas prices are $9 in August,
[00:27:44.587]and we end up with this colder winter season coming our way,
[00:27:47.850]this will be a Northern Hemisphere energy stress winter.
[00:27:52.080]Just something to keep an eye on.
[00:27:54.865]So for this particular part of the country,
[00:27:57.420]I do need to stress as I've already mentioned.
[00:27:59.940]I think you need to be prepared
[00:28:01.260]for potential severe winter weather at times.
[00:28:04.397]I think the cold is more of a concern than thick snows.
[00:28:08.250]But again, I just mentioned what happened
[00:28:09.840]in the spring in North Dakota.
[00:28:11.700]You expect above normal snowfall for really all of Nebraska.
[00:28:16.080]I mean, I think we may see it a little more moderate,
[00:28:18.870]the panhandle just because of the effects of Chinooks
[00:28:22.050]into the Western panhandles.
[00:28:23.640]But I think most of Nebraska,
[00:28:25.650]the Dakotas are gonna be under the gun this winter,
[00:28:28.050]and that's gonna stick into the Southern parts
[00:28:29.580]of the Plains as well.
[00:28:30.720]And through the Western High Plains of Colorado and Wyoming,
[00:28:34.350]east of the Continental Divide,
[00:28:35.700]it's gonna be pretty wintery,
[00:28:37.200]west of divide will be a different story.
[00:28:40.980]As I mentioned earlier,
[00:28:41.813]feel free to send me an email if you have any questions
[00:28:43.860]or if you need to have that Colorado State paper
[00:28:48.030]to look out.
[00:28:49.080]So the bottom line is get ready
[00:28:50.490]for a real winter this winter as compared
[00:28:53.160]to the last couple.

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Long Range Weather Outlook

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