On RFD-TV: Lia Nogueira

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04/01/2022 Added

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The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has impacted various agricultural markets, including the fertilizer market. Fertilizer prices, which were already high in late 2021, have increased further as a result of the ongoing conflict. Lia Nogueira, an associate professor of agricultural economics at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, talks about the issues live on RFD-TV, March 29, 2022.

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[00:00:00.330]While the war in Ukraine is taking a toll on
[00:00:02.520]fertilizer markets, prices were already high in
[00:00:05.370]late 2021. And they've increased further due to
[00:00:08.490]the conflict.
[00:00:09.630]Farmers are now left looking for workarounds as
[00:00:12.060]spring planting progresses.
[00:00:14.070]Associate professor of ag economics at the
[00:00:16.110]University of Nebraska-Lincoln Lia Nogueira joins
[00:00:19.260]us now with further perspective.
[00:00:21.210]And Lia, thank you very much for your time here
[00:00:23.100]this morning.
[00:00:23.850]So how is the conflict between Russia and Ukraine
[00:00:27.870]affecting the fertilizer market?
[00:00:31.380]Well, as you noted, fertilizer prices were already
[00:00:33.990]high in the latter half of 2021.
[00:00:36.540]And it's a complex environment.
[00:00:38.520]But part of the reason of these higher fertilizer
[00:00:43.320]prices was because of increases in cost of
[00:00:46.770]production. Natural gas, ammonia and coal, all
[00:00:52.620]those prices were higher.
[00:00:54.360]Because of that China and Russia imposed
[00:00:57.270]restrictions on exports of fertilizers trying to
[00:00:59.970]keep their domestic prices down.
[00:01:02.400]Now, this is important because Russia is one of
[00:01:04.470]the main producers and exporters of fertilizers.
[00:01:08.580]And now with a conflict with Ukraine, we have our
[00:01:12.930]western countries imposing sanctions because of
[00:01:17.400]the conflict and Russia retaliating by restricting
[00:01:20.790]exports of all sorts of different products,
[00:01:23.820]including fertilizers, except to a few countries
[00:01:27.690]within the Eurasian Economic Union.
[00:01:30.840]And this, along with higher prices for oil and
[00:01:35.010]natural gas has pushed fertilizer prices even
[00:01:37.950]higher.
[00:01:39.090]What does this mean for farmers here in the US?
[00:01:41.000]Well, the upgoing growing season is already mostly
[00:01:48.800]determined by this higher fertilizer prices.
[00:01:51.200]But crop prices is also higher. So potentially
[00:01:55.520]farmers could see some expected profit.
[00:01:58.490]But past the spring planting, we have uncertainty.
[00:02:04.250]And it really depends on how the conflict results.
[00:02:06.680]It could be that some of these prices come down in
[00:02:10.340]terms of inputs for fertilizers.
[00:02:13.130]And also some of the trade restrictions could be
[00:02:16.490]lifted
[00:02:17.720]In the long term, how would this affect the price
[00:02:20.450]and availability of fertilizer?
[00:02:25.520]A couple of points.
[00:02:26.360]First, some of the fertilizer plants in the United
[00:02:29.630]States, Canada and Brazil have already increased
[00:02:31.880]production.
[00:02:32.840]But it may take a few years for those new
[00:02:36.530]quantities to reach the market.
[00:02:38.360]We also have high grain prices that are providing
[00:02:41.840]incentives to increase fertilizer production, but
[00:02:44.420]higher fertilizer prices are going to provide
[00:02:48.860]incentives to farmers to maybe change their
[00:02:51.800]application technology.
[00:02:53.720]So we have this combination of higher fertilizer
[00:02:56.540]prices, higher commodity prices, new information
[00:02:59.090]entering the market, providing incentives to maybe
[00:03:03.320]change some of the farm financial management
[00:03:09.440]techniques for farmers making it very critical for
[00:03:11.810]farmers to manage their financials in a different
[00:03:17.000]You could go online to agecon.unl.edu for more
[00:03:17.300]way.
[00:03:17.580]Well Lia, thank you very much for your insight
[00:03:19.904]this morning, Associate Professor of Ag Economics
[00:03:22.377]at the University of Nebraska Lincoln Lia Nogueira
[00:03:24.900]connecting with us here this morning.
[00:03:30.590]information again.
[00:03:31.370]Thank you Lia.

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On RFD-TV: Lia Nogueira

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