Kreitmair Q&A

Center for Great Plains Studies Author

04/08/2021 Added

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Question and answer session with Ursula Kreitmair, speaker at the 2021 Great Plains conference. To see the full talk, visit our media channel.

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[00:00:00.930]Thank you for that excellent presentation, Dr. Kreitmair.
[00:00:04.400]Wonderful.
[00:00:05.410]And we do have questions.
[00:00:07.840]For your clock watchers, we've got about five,
[00:00:10.270]well, 10 minutes, and we'll take a break
[00:00:13.520]before the 10 o'clock session.
[00:00:16.890]So just by way,
[00:00:21.100]can you read the questions in the Q and A box?
[00:00:26.502]Yes, I can actually
[00:00:29.670]So before we get to that,
[00:00:30.930]we do have a question
[00:00:34.040]that was on the chat.
[00:00:36.510]So let me first start off with that,
[00:00:39.700]so we don't miss that one.
[00:00:42.120]So the question reads, is there a system you recommend
[00:00:45.470]to use to determine which policy tactic to use?
[00:00:51.096]So there is no unified system.
[00:00:55.310]It's very disciplinary.
[00:00:57.410]And depending on who you ask,
[00:00:59.790]you're gonna get very different responses.
[00:01:02.110]For instance, if you ask economists as to what are
[00:01:06.100]the most effective tools, they're gonna look at this
[00:01:07.980]from a very much cost benefit analysis perspective
[00:01:13.080]and, hence, carbon pricing tools are the most effective
[00:01:16.960]and most elegant solutions.
[00:01:18.610]But once you bring in political scientists
[00:01:21.770]who study the political structure
[00:01:25.450]and what is it more likely to pass,
[00:01:27.180]and given these kinds of political ramifications,
[00:01:29.820]how effective are optimal tools,
[00:01:31.750]you're gonna get a very different viewpoint.
[00:01:33.720]So, although there really isn't a single system to use
[00:01:39.240]to suggest this policy's always gonna work,
[00:01:41.750]and this policy isn't,
[00:01:43.670]what is really going to be necessary
[00:01:45.410]are these interdisciplinary approaches
[00:01:48.740]and really getting expertise from all sides
[00:01:51.920]of different disciplines, different viewpoints,
[00:01:54.550]so that we can be mindful of some of the limits
[00:01:58.350]or the constraints that we wouldn't otherwise think about
[00:02:00.640]if we're just set in our own single discipline,
[00:02:03.700]our own single silo.
[00:02:06.290]So, unfortunately, there's no easy answer to this,
[00:02:09.660]but that does probably not come as news
[00:02:13.020]when it comes to climate change
[00:02:14.120]that there are no easy solutions.
[00:02:17.040]Great, thank you.
[00:02:17.980]So if you wanna read along with me,
[00:02:20.490]we'll just go down the list.
[00:02:22.080]This one question is,
[00:02:24.100]do you think the recent receipt of COVID relief checks
[00:02:27.030]to households might change the attitudes
[00:02:30.300]towards carbon pricing?
[00:02:32.630]You stated that the focus would be on the increase
[00:02:35.120]in prices, ignoring the payments that would be made
[00:02:38.230]to offset the price increases.
[00:02:40.670]Could this change?
[00:02:43.380]It can absolutely change.
[00:02:46.240]I wouldn't be extremely optimistic from the get-go, though,
[00:02:49.970]for a couple of reasons.
[00:02:51.810]First off, as humans, we just tend to focus more
[00:02:56.210]on losses and costs than we do on benefits and payoffs.
[00:03:01.570]So we're just psychologically more primed
[00:03:04.430]to look out for these types of concerns.
[00:03:08.510]In addition, the type of schemes so far
[00:03:12.120]that have used dividends or have returned funds
[00:03:15.760]from tax revenue have done so in a somewhat less public
[00:03:21.530]or visible way, such as including it in tax refunds
[00:03:26.310]that you would get otherwise,
[00:03:27.480]and they're not clearly labeling this
[00:03:29.250]as some kind of dividend in return
[00:03:31.780]for the higher electricity costs that you're paying.
[00:03:35.970]Now, that is something that you can design away.
[00:03:37.840]And, in fact, some of the proposals in congress right now
[00:03:41.970]would suggest providing monthly checks
[00:03:45.970]that are highly visible and really would provide
[00:03:48.180]this kind of counterbalance.
[00:03:52.250]Again, the concern is that
[00:03:55.340]I think with the COVID relief checks,
[00:03:57.950]you are creating a sense of trust in government,
[00:04:01.670]and you are creating this relationship
[00:04:05.240]where you can sort of rely on government aid.
[00:04:09.640]But, again the idea that you have higher costs now
[00:04:14.020]is going to weigh a little heavier,
[00:04:16.800]especially because a lot of the time individuals,
[00:04:19.700]even if you state otherwise,
[00:04:22.810]believe that they're actually coming out behind.
[00:04:28.530]So essentially even though they're paying higher prices,
[00:04:30.930]and you're giving them back more,
[00:04:32.340]they believe that individual other households
[00:04:34.980]might be receiving greater payoffs than them,
[00:04:38.230]creating some kind of competitive concern there.
[00:04:43.980]I think there is reason to believe
[00:04:46.360]that it could change over time.
[00:04:48.330]I wouldn't immediately believe that that is going to change
[00:04:53.760]public opinion on this,
[00:04:55.900]especially given that the US carbon pricing schemes
[00:05:00.210]are still seen as taxation schemes,
[00:05:02.660]and that is one of the reasons we were this close in 2009
[00:05:07.520]to have a carbon price actually being passed in the US.
[00:05:12.360]And just simply by calling it a tax at an inopportune time,
[00:05:16.350]and a Republican senator being associated with that,
[00:05:21.060]led to the senator jumping off board
[00:05:23.910]and it not actually passing.
[00:05:26.050]So, there's still this concern about cost
[00:05:28.770]being at the front and center,
[00:05:30.630]even if we are providing very visible checks to households.
[00:05:36.413]Okay, great.
[00:05:37.728]Next question, how will the carbon pricing
[00:05:40.020]affect the agricultural community
[00:05:42.580]as nothing has been done to make the equipment used
[00:05:45.020]less dependent on fossil fuels?
[00:05:47.560]People in rural communities have no choice other than
[00:05:50.210]to rely on individual vehicles as there is minimal
[00:05:53.770]or absolutely no public transportation available.
[00:05:57.320]This would seem to hit this community quite hard.
[00:06:01.770]Yes, so a carbon price would hit these types
[00:06:07.730]of rural communities much more than,
[00:06:11.350]for instance, urban communities.
[00:06:13.040]However, there are a number of proposals
[00:06:16.300]and programs in place to try and alleviate that.
[00:06:19.120]For instance, with the carbon dividend,
[00:06:21.000]you could structure it in any way you like, really.
[00:06:25.010]You could be returning funds back to rural communities,
[00:06:29.640]more so than urban communities.
[00:06:31.640]So depending on how you structure that,
[00:06:33.320]you could really alleviate the burden that is placed
[00:06:35.740]on rural communities.
[00:06:37.310]In addition, with recent efforts
[00:06:40.890]to modernize infrastructure, we're really looking at
[00:06:45.350]also helping rural communities
[00:06:47.710]who are currently relying on individual vehicles
[00:06:52.420]to move towards electrification.
[00:06:54.320]Now that is much more ambitious and much harder to achieve
[00:06:58.270]than in urban communities where it's a much denser network,
[00:07:01.110]and cars, generally,
[00:07:06.250]they're just used for transportation,
[00:07:07.920]and so it can be quite a lot smaller,
[00:07:09.900]which fits way more with the electrification of vehicles.
[00:07:14.790]So long story short,
[00:07:18.560]it would impact rural communities more.
[00:07:21.920]The idea behind this would be that
[00:07:23.960]that would create greater incentives
[00:07:26.150]to even electrify farming equipment and farming vehicles,
[00:07:32.700]and so would push over the long run
[00:07:35.900]for this burden to be lessened.
[00:07:39.080]That is gonna take some time.
[00:07:40.430]So in the meantime, unless you design a revenue return,
[00:07:45.400]so a dividend, in such a way to alleviate rural communities,
[00:07:48.660]they would be hurt much more,
[00:07:50.490]and, hence, these types of programs carbon pricing programs
[00:07:54.180]would have to be complemented and supplemented
[00:07:56.520]with other types of programs that provide some relief
[00:07:59.420]to farming communities.
[00:08:01.300]And what is currently being done provides
[00:08:03.500]some direct payment incentives to reduce carbon
[00:08:07.559]in a different way, possibly even using that as offsets
[00:08:10.820]to reduce any kind of burden for carbon pricing.
[00:08:15.490]Great.
[00:08:16.450]Another question, what about environmental concerns
[00:08:20.170]about wind farms and the loss of arable land to solar farms?
[00:08:25.280]That's a great question.
[00:08:27.680]Wind farms are polarized in and of themselves.
[00:08:32.100]If you think about it, they are very much touted
[00:08:35.530]as a great solution to decarbonizing electric systems.
[00:08:42.610]They are not very popular if you have to live close to them
[00:08:46.870]for a number of reasons in terms of the noise pollution,
[00:08:51.960]for instance, from one,
[00:08:53.320]but also the change of the landscape on another.
[00:08:58.380]So here, what has been done to...
[00:09:04.539]So one approach to this,
[00:09:06.310]which has sort of made some headway,
[00:09:11.250]is actually providing direct payments to farmers
[00:09:14.860]that lease out their land.
[00:09:17.689]From an income perspective,
[00:09:19.600]you wouldn't really have this kind of loss,
[00:09:22.030]because they're essentially compensated
[00:09:25.130]for losing arable land that way.
[00:09:27.900]Now in terms of
[00:09:31.440]food security and how that will change
[00:09:34.010]as climate change impacts are going to be become much more
[00:09:39.870]rapid and much more felt,
[00:09:43.930]that's going to be something that is a cost benefit,
[00:09:50.260]a decision here where the types of emission reductions
[00:09:54.320]we can achieve through wind energy
[00:09:56.150]might be worth reducing arable land in that sense.
[00:10:01.190]In addition to that, you do have options
[00:10:04.660]where you actually place these wind farms,
[00:10:06.780]and you can use them in marginalized tract land
[00:10:12.270]that are really not as useful for growing crops.
[00:10:16.610]So I do think we have a little bit of flexibility there,
[00:10:19.300]but I am absolutely mindful
[00:10:21.860]that wind farms are a very
[00:10:27.820]political and polarized subject.
[00:10:30.380]And I think there's still a lot of work to be done
[00:10:33.240]to, in particular, bring in the communities
[00:10:36.720]that are going to be most effected by wind farms
[00:10:39.530]in terms of being closest, more proximate to them,
[00:10:42.230]and ensuring that they are on board
[00:10:45.540]and are actually receiving some kind of compensation
[00:10:48.830]in terms of payments for land,
[00:10:51.720]but also potentially for lower energy prices or even returns
[00:10:55.520]on additional energy that is being fed into the grid.
[00:11:01.436]Your talk has generated
[00:11:03.057]a considerable number of questions.
[00:11:05.011]And we have time just for one more.
[00:11:08.460]So help me out on this, perhaps,
[00:11:09.940]so we can see the questions on board.
[00:11:12.530]What question would you like to leave us with?
[00:11:18.360]Oh, wow, okay.
[00:11:19.193]That's a lot. All good questions.
[00:11:20.350]Great questions here.
[00:11:23.180]Let me just quickly, I see a question here on the huge range
[00:11:29.400]necessary for carbon price per ton
[00:11:33.372]that the IPC calculated to hit this one 1 1/2 degree target,
[00:11:36.930]and that ranges from 135 to 6,000.
[00:11:40.060]And I think this is a really great question,
[00:11:42.590]because it gets at how much uncertainty we still have
[00:11:45.700]in the system and how that translates to our policy,
[00:11:49.210]which makes tackling climate change even more difficult,
[00:11:52.930]because it's not quite clear
[00:11:54.500]what kind of goal we need to hit.
[00:11:57.180]So one of the reasons we have this huge range is
[00:12:00.360]because we can't foresee how much technological
[00:12:03.630]change we're going to have in the coming years.
[00:12:06.210]And potentially if things work out really well
[00:12:09.170]and we have a breakthrough in carbon sequestration methods
[00:12:12.733]for instance, and we have a really cheap way
[00:12:15.610]of capturing carbon and, and sequestering it,
[00:12:19.400]then we might not need a very high carbon price
[00:12:23.780]in the first place to actually achieve the goals
[00:12:25.940]that we're trying to achieve.
[00:12:27.410]If it turns out that we have less flexibility,
[00:12:30.650]or there are fewer cheap alternatives to transitioning
[00:12:34.420]from a very carbon intense economy to a renewable one.
[00:12:39.000]we're going to need greater price incentives
[00:12:41.160]to actually force industry, really,
[00:12:43.860]to put more more research and development
[00:12:49.330]and more resources towards this kind of transition.
[00:12:53.440]So there is a lot of uncertainty,
[00:12:55.780]not just in terms of climate sensitivity
[00:12:59.700]and how much CO2 we can still put into the atmosphere
[00:13:02.870]until we hit these temperatures.
[00:13:05.430]There's even more uncertainty
[00:13:06.820]when it comes to this added layer of,
[00:13:09.900]given this uncertainty with temperature.
[00:13:11.830]how do we get individuals who are uncertain at best
[00:13:15.550]or unpredictable sometimes
[00:13:17.740]to actually make these changes necessary?
[00:13:20.770]So that's why it's really hard to pin down
[00:13:25.074]what exactly our carbon price should be.
[00:13:28.900]Okay, well, I think, the audience,
[00:13:31.940]you've provided great questions.
[00:13:34.420]Thank you for your participation.
[00:13:36.710]Dr. Kreitmair, your presentation and your answers
[00:13:39.020]to the questions were just exceptionally well-delivered.
[00:13:44.300]I've learned so very much from your presentation,
[00:13:46.730]and I'm sure the audience are equally appreciative
[00:13:50.670]of your excellent presentation.
[00:13:53.444]You really did a wonderful job.
[00:13:55.540]So thank you.
[00:13:57.250]Thank you very much for having me.
[00:13:58.730]This was so much fun,
[00:14:00.080]and I really enjoyed these great questions.
[00:14:02.350]And I'm looking forward to the next sessions.
[00:14:04.340]Thank you so much.
[00:14:05.612](gentle acoustic music)

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