Factors that Contribute Towards Drinking Water Source Project Success

Kurt Kesteloot Author

04/04/2021 Added

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[00:00:02.070]Good morning or afternoon everyone.
[00:00:03.930]My name is Kurt Kesteloot.
[00:00:05.170]I am in the Civil Engineering Department
[00:00:07.540]at the University of Nebraska.
[00:00:09.570]Today I'll be talking about the factors that contribute
[00:00:12.860]towards drinking water source project success.
[00:00:15.750]As you can see in my,
[00:00:16.710]I like to give a statement here initially
[00:00:19.240]that talks about hydraulic structures in water sources
[00:00:22.740]are equally essential and controversial.
[00:00:25.193]If you look back over time,
[00:00:27.850]the legal battles between water and then,
[00:00:31.190]certainly we all know the need for water, I believe.
[00:00:35.020]And engineers and developers of drinking water sources
[00:00:38.480]need to be excellent communicators to help with
[00:00:42.606]and compromise to articulate the need
[00:00:47.700]of a drinking water source
[00:00:49.930]that is designed to work for the community
[00:00:52.570]for many years to come.
[00:00:55.184]This topic will continue to be of utmost importance
[00:00:59.920]as you can see here,
[00:01:01.800]there's many speculations out there for water needs
[00:01:05.360]and demand for clean water here is estimated to increase
[00:01:09.600]by 50% by the year 2050.
[00:01:12.350]The successful development of a drinking water source
[00:01:16.120]requires careful consideration for many influential factors.
[00:01:19.570]The factors with the most importance for overall longevity
[00:01:23.130]in drinking water sources remain uncertain,
[00:01:25.830]and that's why I'm doing the research.
[00:01:28.210]One of the major questions to consider in this
[00:01:31.450]is during planning development,
[00:01:33.553]is there a question that we can ask
[00:01:36.720]to help make these successful projects?
[00:01:40.050]So this research, there's three areas that I have
[00:01:43.520]for objectives to look through.
[00:01:45.530]First would be what the data here looks at
[00:01:48.420]and that's information from regression analysis of data
[00:01:53.540]from Engineers Without Borders' projects
[00:01:56.030]in developing countries.
[00:01:57.640]And then, second would be looking at information
[00:02:01.480]from water source projects in developed countries.
[00:02:05.370]And then, the third would be to compare and contrast
[00:02:08.520]those factors and see if there is actually a difference
[00:02:11.599]or hopefully there's just a couple of factors
[00:02:14.920]that are of main importance
[00:02:17.250]to help share with the water community
[00:02:20.320]on what we should try and focus on
[00:02:23.300]to have successful projects.
[00:02:26.070]As I mentioned briefly,
[00:02:27.730]some of the methods that will be used
[00:02:30.140]will be using regression analysis,
[00:02:32.180]the Statistical Analysis Software also known as SAS Online
[00:02:36.320]and looking at that the Chi-square values,
[00:02:39.471]Ordinal Logit Model
[00:02:41.630]and the Fisher's Exact test, odd ratio.
[00:02:46.680]And also would like to note that in the comparison,
[00:02:50.190]the probability of 5%
[00:02:52.160]was considered statistically significant.
[00:02:55.940]From the data section here,
[00:02:58.010]if you look, you can see there were 23 surveys
[00:03:01.820]that Engineers Without Borders had developed
[00:03:05.480]or excuse me, gathered responses for.
[00:03:08.520]And those areas of the projects range from Central America
[00:03:12.520]to Africa, Madagascar area
[00:03:15.260]and they had 5 dependent variables
[00:03:17.870]and 90 independent variables
[00:03:20.950]as you can see over in the discussion
[00:03:23.350]and in that, 1 dependent variable was not used
[00:03:29.840]because there was only one response for the "No"
[00:03:33.710]and statistically trying to compare those 90
[00:03:36.890]independent variables with that,
[00:03:39.340]there really wasn't much that it would tell us.
[00:03:42.012]It was such a small sample size that made it difficult
[00:03:44.590]and that's one of the other reasons
[00:03:46.870]why I started using just the Ordinal Logit Model
[00:03:49.780]and getting the Chi-square value,
[00:03:51.630]but then had it to include the Fisher's P-value
[00:03:55.480]because there was errors that were developing in SAS
[00:03:58.960]to where there wasn't a significance
[00:04:01.580]and there was a warning because of the number
[00:04:05.083]due to the small sample size.
[00:04:08.380]So as you can see in the results here,
[00:04:10.799]the first table shows some of the significant factors,
[00:04:17.430]just based off the P-value
[00:04:19.120]but they didn't have a high odds ratio,
[00:04:23.240]the Wald Chi-square value ironically enough
[00:04:26.290]was also not valid.
[00:04:28.350]So I think that kind of helps show
[00:04:30.580]that the Fisher's P-value is one of the factors
[00:04:37.520]or a better statistical analysis.
[00:04:40.720]'Cause as you go below and you can look in table three,
[00:04:44.260]you can see the Fisher's P-value
[00:04:46.540]and all those are statistically significant
[00:04:49.520]with the Fisher's P-value.
[00:04:51.270]And several of them,
[00:04:53.350]especially those with the higher odds ratio
[00:04:55.270]are significant with the Wald Chi-square as well.
[00:04:59.400]But the Fisher's P-value was significant for all these.
[00:05:03.520]And again, that was likely due to the small sample size
[00:05:08.560]for that statistical comparison to be more appropriate.
[00:05:14.340]And so, kind of already talked about some of this
[00:05:17.619]as far as the conclusion in the discussion here.
[00:05:21.550]The statistical factors evaluated here,
[00:05:24.910]the odds ratio and the Chi-square values
[00:05:27.710]and the Fisher's Exact test.
[00:05:29.880]And I omitted that last dependent variable.
[00:05:35.470]So the values that, as you can see in tables three,
[00:05:40.710]two and three, and there was actually a fourth one
[00:05:43.840]that I wasn't able to fit all the information here,
[00:05:46.620]that came from SAS
[00:05:48.270]but those independent variables that were most significant
[00:05:52.760]based off the fact that they appeared more than once,
[00:05:55.960]the dependent variables
[00:05:58.344]and the independent variables appeared more than once
[00:06:01.920]were how many houses were within 500 meters
[00:06:04.760]of the drinking water source,
[00:06:06.600]they had a healthcare facility present
[00:06:08.996]and then they had a multiple disciplinary project team.
[00:06:12.920]And then who contributed to the project costs?
[00:06:15.790]I highlighted that one and bolded it
[00:06:17.980]because of the fact that the odds ratio,
[00:06:20.373]saying here that's a greater than 999.99.
[00:06:23.960]And then there was also several independent variables
[00:06:27.230]that only appeared once
[00:06:28.900]as far as being statistically significant associated
[00:06:32.250]with the dependent variable in those.
[00:06:35.648]As you can see are listed here,
[00:06:38.410]and I bolded that has the government contributed cash
[00:06:44.000]because that has a high odds ratio of a 67.57 and 578.
[00:06:50.877]Regardless, it also has a confidence interval
[00:06:54.780]that seems to make more sense
[00:06:58.790]and give a little bit more of a range that is realistic
[00:07:03.260]versus the zero to 999.
[00:07:07.820]So,
[00:07:09.810]I would say those factors, it seems to align to where...
[00:07:13.620]All the significant factors seem to relate
[00:07:16.170]to the population density,
[00:07:18.094]funding,
[00:07:19.510]as you can see both in their community involvement
[00:07:22.780]and community acceptance.
[00:07:24.650]And then also the training to the community
[00:07:27.340]for long-term operation
[00:07:28.960]and training of those doing the actual project work.
[00:07:32.670]So some of the future direction would be to gather data
[00:07:35.942]regarding the success of drinking water sources
[00:07:38.760]constructed in developing and developed countries
[00:07:41.760]to give a little more data from developing
[00:07:44.290]and then of course that from developed countries
[00:07:47.280]working hopefully with the EPA
[00:07:49.330]and the national park service there.
[00:07:51.430]And then update the data as technology changes,
[00:07:55.310]there's lots of computer systems out there
[00:07:57.950]that are trying to anticipate success for projects as well.
[00:08:02.500]And then also continue to analyze data using SAS,
[00:08:06.373]the traditional statistical methods.
[00:08:10.220]I'd like to thank Engineers Without Borders for the data,
[00:08:14.050]Dr. Libby Jones and Dr. Bartelt Hunt for the data
[00:08:19.130]and help with interpretation going through this
[00:08:22.980]and encouragement along with my wife and family.
[00:08:26.524]Pending any questions, that's all I have.
[00:08:28.937]Thank you.

Factors that Contribute Towards Drinking Water Source Project Success

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Factors that Contribute Towards Drinking Water Source Project Success

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