NU Researchers in the CWMD Mission Space

National Strategic Research Institute Author

12/14/2020 Added

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Dr. Neal Woollen, Senior Research Strategy Officer, National Strategic Research Institute at the University of Nebraska

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[00:00:00.000](dramatic music)
[00:00:06.640]My name is Neil Wallen
[00:00:07.980]and this presentation is intended to enhance your awareness
[00:00:10.960]of the scope of challenges and opportunities
[00:00:13.650]related to countering threats posed
[00:00:15.570]by weapons of mass destruction.
[00:00:17.930]Some new faculty have shown interest in participating
[00:00:20.830]in NSRI-related research but they are not certain
[00:00:23.990]where skillsets acquired through their
[00:00:25.910]academic discipline fit.
[00:00:28.860]We hope this presentation will help faculty members
[00:00:31.340]visualize where they may be able
[00:00:33.400]to contribute and make a difference.
[00:00:37.080]NSRI's mission is to enable deterrence of, preparedness for,
[00:00:41.300]and response to strategic national security threats
[00:00:44.420]across multiple domains through research and support.
[00:00:48.490]Major emphasis is placed on developing counter measures
[00:00:51.640]to weapons of mass destruction.
[00:00:54.720]We will start with a discussion of the various threats,
[00:00:57.710]WMD threats emanating from chemical, biological,
[00:01:01.770]radiological, nuclear, and explosive weapons,
[00:01:05.120]may be perceived, known, or unknown.
[00:01:08.490]They target some sector of society
[00:01:10.810]and produce significant second and third-order consequences.
[00:01:16.590]Every threat has some core enabling factors.
[00:01:20.040]They are availability and access to materials
[00:01:23.050]to create the weapon, knowledge,
[00:01:25.710]technical capability, and the desire and resources
[00:01:29.300]to create a weapon and to do harm.
[00:01:32.160]Enabling factors shown in this slide
[00:01:33.980]are related to intentional threats.
[00:01:36.400]They would be different for threats
[00:01:37.790]related to accidental release or natural infections.
[00:01:43.720]Targets may include plants and animals, people,
[00:01:46.710]or elements of a city, region, or nation's infrastructure.
[00:01:52.440]Consequences of a WMD attack can range
[00:01:55.060]from death, illness, and injury
[00:01:58.550]to environmental contamination
[00:02:00.830]and public fear and panic with significant socio-economic
[00:02:04.370]and geopolitical impact, and political reaction.
[00:02:08.510]Their impact may also be partially determined
[00:02:11.530]by existing socio-economic and geopolitical factors
[00:02:15.230]that negatively impact resilience of societies.
[00:02:20.710]Next, we will transition to a discussion
[00:02:22.720]of some general categories for counter measures
[00:02:25.240]intended to mitigate the threats.
[00:02:29.850]If we are successful at deterring or preventing use of WMD,
[00:02:34.530]there will be no impact on the target
[00:02:36.330]and consequences will not be realized.
[00:02:38.910]Denial of effects through layer to integrate defenses
[00:02:41.730]suggest that readiness to deal with the consequences
[00:02:45.380]can also serve as an effective component
[00:02:47.870]of deterrence, where an adversary will be less likely
[00:02:51.220]to employ these weapons if their
[00:02:53.300]desired effects will not be realized.
[00:02:59.110]The dash line suggests that we can not be 100% confident
[00:03:02.910]that the deterrents will prevent an attack.
[00:03:05.360]If an attack is realized, we must develop solutions
[00:03:08.330]for rapid detection and characterization,
[00:03:11.190]vulnerable population and infrastructure protection,
[00:03:14.880]prevention of effects, affected area
[00:03:17.800]and population management, and surveillance.
[00:03:21.560]While similarities exist between dealing with threats
[00:03:24.230]to humans and those targeting agriculture,
[00:03:27.230]unique solutions are required for each.
[00:03:32.230]If we are unable to deter or adequately protect
[00:03:35.520]vulnerable populations or prevent effects,
[00:03:38.560]we must be prepared to mitigate impact
[00:03:40.680]from second and third-order effects,
[00:03:43.380]in other words, the consequences.
[00:03:45.580]These are obviously broad categories
[00:03:47.810]and patient management can range
[00:03:49.510]from treating patients inside the contamination zone
[00:03:52.730]to transporting contaminated personnel
[00:03:55.420]from a contaminated area
[00:03:56.870]to a clean area for definitive care.
[00:03:59.610]The ultimate goal is rapid recovery
[00:04:02.210]and return to normal operations
[00:04:04.200]with minimal to no loss of life
[00:04:06.440]and effective management of public fear,
[00:04:09.170]as well as socio-economic and geopolitical impacts.
[00:04:13.340]Building resilient populations must start
[00:04:15.940]before an incident occurs.
[00:04:17.880]There will be need for SME advice
[00:04:20.470]and or artificial intelligence solutions
[00:04:22.990]throughout all phases, as well as planning
[00:04:25.840]and training to develop effective response,
[00:04:28.690]leadership, and readiness
[00:04:30.520]across all sectors of society.
[00:04:35.580]There are a number of overarching considerations
[00:04:38.340]that also need to be addressed
[00:04:40.650]when both characterizing the threat
[00:04:42.450]and building effective counter measures.
[00:04:44.920]We can't afford to think too narrowly
[00:04:46.840]on how our societies may be attacked
[00:04:49.940]and the recent pandemic should be a wake up call
[00:04:52.870]for scope and scale of potential impact
[00:04:55.240]on society and supply chains.
[00:05:00.140]We could, through an in-depth discussion,
[00:05:02.650]expand almost every category on this slide
[00:05:05.860]for countermeasure development efforts
[00:05:07.640]to adequately mitigate these threats,
[00:05:10.030]but I hope this stimulates thoughts
[00:05:12.850]on where your respective skillsets
[00:05:15.150]may be applicable to the challenges.
[00:05:17.740]Please don't hesitate to contact me
[00:05:19.780]or a member of the NSRI team if you have ideas
[00:05:23.160]that you would like to explore.
[00:05:26.100]In addition to the traditional threats
[00:05:28.010]that we are aware of and have been preparing for,
[00:05:30.560]we must also think about the next generation of threats.
[00:05:34.130]Unfortunately, as new technology and new discoveries
[00:05:37.430]enable science for good,
[00:05:38.860]they also enable adversaries for bad.
[00:05:41.670]In the next two slides, I want to discuss
[00:05:43.590]how I feel synthetic biology
[00:05:45.260]could change the threat landscape
[00:05:47.490]and potentially impact readiness.
[00:05:50.910]In 2018, the National Academy of Science
[00:05:53.840]Consensus Study Report was published on bio-defense
[00:05:57.450]in the age of synthetic biology.
[00:06:00.480]This study did not utilize intelligence reports
[00:06:03.050]to determine the most likely scenarios
[00:06:05.050]based on adversary intentions,
[00:06:07.260]rather, it considered likelihood based on state of science
[00:06:11.560]and potential for scientific advancements
[00:06:14.730]to be used for nefarious purposes.
[00:06:17.290]Based on this report, counter measure development
[00:06:19.760]for biological threats should give consideration
[00:06:22.740]to at least the categories highlighted in red on this chart.
[00:06:28.990]The items highlighted in red on this slide
[00:06:31.210]depict areas of concern and readiness efforts
[00:06:34.440]that I feel could be significantly and negatively impacted
[00:06:38.740]by the synthetic biology threat.
[00:06:41.430]I hope this very brief overview has both stimulated interest
[00:06:45.320]and thoughts on areas where you feel you can serve
[00:06:48.590]as an effective member of a team or teams
[00:06:51.200]to mitigate today's and tomorrow's threats
[00:06:54.040]from weapons of mass destruction.
[00:06:56.300]Please contact me if you have questions or opportunities
[00:06:59.610]and ideas that you wish to explore
[00:07:01.920]and where we can be of assistance to you.

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NU Researchers in the CWMD Mission Space

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