Webinar: Meat Packing Industry: How Capacity, Workers and Supply Chain Flow Have Changed due to COVID-19 with Steve Kay (May 14, 2020)
Steve Kay, Editor and Publisher of Cattle Buyers Weekly, will discuss what is currently happening in the meat packing industry and what this looks like moving forward through the next production cycle. Includes time for questions and answers.
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[00:01:42.180]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Well, good afternoon, everyone. I'm Dr. Dennis assistant professor of livestock marketing and risk management here in the Department of Agricultural Economics
[00:01:51.420]ELLIOTT DENNIS: At the University of Nebraska, Lincoln, on behalf of the Department, just want to welcome you to our webinar today should be a great opportunity to to learn some more information about what's happening and also to talk a little bit with Steve K
[00:02:06.690]ELLIOTT DENNIS: This is
[00:02:11.580]ELLIOTT DENNIS: This is part of a series of webinars produced by our department, our farm and ranch management team that currently we're focusing on issues related to Kobe Kobe impact on specifically in Nebraska is agricultural economy.
[00:02:26.610]ELLIOTT DENNIS: You can find recordings of these sessions and a schedule of upcoming webinars and other resources at farm you and l.edu
[00:02:37.320]ELLIOTT DENNIS: One of the resources that we really quickly want to highlight with you today is the Nebraska roll response hotline. We know these
[00:02:45.720]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Are stressful times and knowing when to reach out is is really essential. So the Nebraskan rural hotline headline can provide some mental health counseling information regarding legal assistance financial clinics meditation and much more.
[00:03:02.670]ELLIOTT DENNIS: I've listed the hotlines number here and also a website if you feel like that's a better avenue for you.
[00:03:10.620]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Well, today's webinar. We're not going to allow you to directly interact with our speakers, you're welcome to ask questions in the chat box and, after which we will address those after
[00:03:24.960]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Our guest has finished their presentation today. We're great privilege to have Steve K who's editor and publisher of cattle buyers weekly since its inception in 1987
[00:03:37.140]ELLIOTT DENNIS: So after growing up on a Dairy, beef, sheep and hog farm on the South Island of New Zealand stever and a master's in history and a postgraduate degree in journalism.
[00:03:46.050]ELLIOTT DENNIS: And he has his specialize in writing about the livestock and need industries for 30 years and is recognized as the authoritative.
[00:03:54.480]ELLIOTT DENNIS: And impartial observer of the North American Meat livestock industry so Steve's a busy man, but in addition to his by with calm and
[00:04:03.690]ELLIOTT DENNIS: In the Western livestock journal Steve serves as a contributing editor for the meat and poultry magazine and he regularly and he writes regularly for the beef today magazine and authors a monthly us livestock industry view, Steve, can you hear me. Thanks for joining us.
[00:04:22.230]Steve Kay: Yes, thank you very much. Elliot, and thank you for the kind invitation and introduction. And I also want to give a special thanks to people who have taken time out to listen to you and me this afternoon, talk about the impact of this unprecedented time in the US beef industry.
[00:04:45.930]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Yeah. It surely is an unprecedented time and
[00:04:49.770]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Today I hope we can, you and I, Steve, can have a few questions I prepared a couple of PowerPoint slides with system figures and perhaps we can just have just a friendly conversation about what you kind of see is happening and what's kind of your perspective.
[00:05:07.320]ELLIOTT DENNIS: So let's just talk about this market volatility to seeing. Tell us a little bit through about how this mark market volatility came to be and kind of what you're seeing on your end,
[00:05:17.310]Steve Kay: Well, it happened.
[00:05:19.380]Steve Kay: Back in late February when it all started early that's it's remarkable that the April contract on February 21 was $118 and 25 cents.
[00:05:30.900]Steve Kay: And by April six that was $83 and 82 cents and pretty much all the other June calm that's down 30% three zero percent the zoom contract and that same time fell by 27%
[00:05:44.070]Steve Kay: Then when you look at the correlation and feed cattle futures. So by similar amounts and great deal of pain to, you know, Cow, cow produces in Nebraska and beyond, seeing the value of their animals.
[00:05:58.560]Steve Kay: Evaporate like that both, you know, in the feedlot and out on pasture because cash prices did exactly the same thing.
[00:06:07.320]Steve Kay: You know the week of February 23 and this is the five areas steel price average $119 and 70 cents.
[00:06:16.590]Steve Kay: By April 12 was $105 even met down 17% year on year finally bottomed two weeks later at 9669 there was some 24% year on year
[00:06:31.500]Steve Kay: Free to cattle prices. If I take the, I think you've got the Nebraska prices up there. But if I take Oklahoma's steer city steer seven to eight wait week of February 22 average 239 79 by made to 121 32
[00:06:53.730]Steve Kay: So that's the depth of profound erosion that we saw that set off a whole train of events and we'll talk about in a moment.
[00:07:03.270]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Yeah. Surely it's kind of unprecedented amazing to think that
[00:07:06.180]ELLIOTT DENNIS: 30% of the value could have been deteriorated really in just a matter of months. That's
[00:07:12.780]That's got to have something
[00:07:14.940]Steve Kay: I think it's just a matter week. So I think the magnitude and the speed was what's done me the most.
[00:07:23.010]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Yeah.
[00:07:24.450]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Those, those gotta have some pretty important implications for but just talked about, you know, one of those is placements talk
[00:07:31.650]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Talk us through a little bit
[00:07:32.700]Steve Kay: About
[00:07:33.840]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Just kind of how this reduction in placements and kind of conversely increases and marketing really compares historically and maybe talk through some of those that how these prices have maybe created a backlog, both inside and outside of this
[00:07:50.670]Steve Kay: Right. Well, I think your graph shows
[00:07:53.460]Steve Kay: Extremely well, Elliot.
[00:07:56.880]Steve Kay: You know, stating the obvious cattle feed is or people wishing to put capital on feed couldn't possibly hedge those candle and so much placements.
[00:08:08.460]Steve Kay: And these, these are unprecedented that the big the year on year decline and match placements was the biggest in in the data series going back to 1996 and probably for a very very long time. We don't have numbers before that.
[00:08:24.030]Steve Kay: But you know they they match placements year on year or down 23% they were down 1.557 million. Sorry. They were down 450 7000 head April, which we get
[00:08:39.240]Steve Kay: The numbers on May 22 could be down as much as 500,000 or more may won't be down as much because there's a lot of we kept kept candle coming off week passive that have to move but June could be down
[00:08:55.890]Steve Kay: Who knows how much another 20% and miss the futures rally because the future is right now the way back of any meaningful penetrable number I estimated that just
[00:09:10.740]Steve Kay: Tried to balance that if March, April, May and June placements collectively with down 20% on a year ago.
[00:09:18.750]Steve Kay: That means that we would not have placed 1.535 million cattle versus last year, though, that would have been the decline the April one outside feedlot number was already up 517,000 head was a year ago, so we we really have to backlogs and the first one, quite obviously
[00:09:43.860]Steve Kay: And you put it a new slide the first the first one is that
[00:09:49.620]Steve Kay: There's a backlog of cattle outside feedlots and
[00:09:55.170]Steve Kay: You know those cattle have got to come
[00:09:59.070]Steve Kay: Off grass, whether it's mid summer too late summer or as long as possible. People have grabbed le they want to come off. They brought to come off pasture and grass at some point.
[00:10:12.570]Steve Kay: And you know My fear is that they're going to come off record heavy, they're going to be there'll be a bold replacements.
[00:10:21.840]Steve Kay: Probably
[00:10:23.850]Steve Kay: Could be starting mid August mid into September, even into October.
[00:10:30.240]Steve Kay: They will be on feed for a minimum number of days to be able to grade choice or prime, and then we'll have another boat eventually in those marketing's out of feedlots and that may start as early as January now.
[00:10:47.340]Steve Kay: At the same time, and
[00:10:50.880]Steve Kay: Perhaps the next slide is going to tell us more about this is that we're getting a backlog inside feedlots as you as you right because of the lack of Florida.
[00:11:01.890]Steve Kay: Yeah.
[00:11:02.880]ELLIOTT DENNIS: So really, we're talking about
[00:11:04.950]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Two different supply and demand issues or we're talking about supply and demand at the feedlot level and then potentially how that's being passed down to the supply and the demand conditions down at the cow calf kind of stalker level. Right. Yeah.
[00:11:19.200]Steve Kay: Absolutely. I mean, all these all these factors have kept those those prices that depressed.
[00:11:26.580]Steve Kay: I'm just trying to think the
[00:11:29.610]Steve Kay: You did I say that the the Oklahoma City price on me, too. And that's the latest price. We have I think was 121 32 it's you know it's it's state. It's stayed depressed.
[00:11:41.940]Steve Kay: You know, what we have is that we were we were going to have
[00:11:46.950]Steve Kay: A build up in in front end supplies inside feedlots in front end means 150 days on feed or more that would have picked on June one
[00:11:56.730]Steve Kay: And these are sobering figures May one, it was up 5% on a year ago, June one number was up 19% on a year ago or up 420 9000 paid
[00:12:08.520]Steve Kay: July one is predicted to be up 23% it's 520 2000 and only declining slightly by August one up 22% on year ago up 449 so so we have 450 looking in the summer. Instead of seeing a reduction in those market ready numbers.
[00:12:30.240]Steve Kay: After we got over supposedly had got over the
[00:12:35.310]Steve Kay: Summer how we, in fact, we're going to see it extended out into July and August. Right.
[00:12:45.000]Steve Kay: Yeah.
[00:12:45.570]ELLIOTT DENNIS: It kind of brings us to the point of maybe talking about the bow backlog that's potentially happening within
[00:12:53.310]ELLIOTT DENNIS: What's packing situation.
[00:12:56.010]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Just want to make some of you have kind of wrote in that maybe potentially the top, bottom, and right parts of the screen are cut off, we will have the slides posted again on on the website. So sorry if you're not able to see that.
[00:13:12.450]ELLIOTT DENNIS: So let's just talk about in a lot of press has been talking about.
[00:13:16.590]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Plant utilization
[00:13:18.360]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Probably prior to this whole situation with
[00:13:23.670]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Kobe 19
[00:13:24.600]ELLIOTT DENNIS: We had the whole come fire and even prior to that there was a lot of concerns within the industry that maybe we don't have enough hook
[00:13:30.690]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Space, maybe we're not using adequately using that hook space.
[00:13:34.650]ELLIOTT DENNIS: You follow this quite regularly in the
[00:13:36.450]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Survey the industry.
[00:13:38.760]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Annually talk us through a little bit about plant closures and where we're at with utilization how this has changed over time and maybe you want to particularly highlight the differences between maybe what we saw with Holcomb
[00:13:53.790]ELLIOTT DENNIS: packing plant fire and in this coven 19 situation.
[00:13:58.920]Steve Kay: Thank you, Elliot. I've I'm a numbers guy. So I've actually surveyed the top 30 packets
[00:14:07.170]Steve Kay: For the last since 1988 and so I have tracked capacity utilization of the top five packers and the whole industry since that time. And it's fascinating. I mean capacity utilization has has fluctuated percentage wise largely according to the numbers.
[00:14:27.810]Steve Kay: And according to him, and ones had to make adjustments when I started the industry.
[00:14:33.600]Steve Kay: Pack plans ran up to 90 days a year now. More recently, it was more like down to 265 which was like one Saturday one Saturday shift instead of to
[00:14:46.590]Steve Kay: The latest numbers I have, which I think show up on the right hand side of the screen, but some people may not see them. So I'll repeat capacity utilization
[00:14:56.610]Steve Kay: In recent years, obviously, hit a low. This is the top five pack and I'll just focus on that was 2015 at 87.2% of capacity utilization and that coincided with that type of supply of live cattle numbers because of
[00:15:16.980]Steve Kay: The end of a drought and and obviously a holding back of more heifers
[00:15:22.740]Steve Kay: But by 2018 which is the latest number I've got it was back up to 98.1% and I suspect that last year because I haven't collected numbers from packers yet was was about the same. They ran and if you just look at the slaughter numbers they they ran pretty much as hard as they could.
[00:15:40.800]Steve Kay: You know, it's interesting to you mentioned, you know, do we not have enough hacker space. I think we had enough shackled space, you know, the
[00:15:48.780]Steve Kay: Live cattle were marketed in a pretty orderly fashion. Last year, but what's happened this year is unprecedented. And it's
[00:15:57.270]Steve Kay: Perhaps one could argue that it's showing up that you know we don't have enough shackle space but but it's because of these unique circumstances. The hokum fire gave us a prelude of that.
[00:16:10.890]Steve Kay: Perhaps slight fragility of of the amount of capacity we have at home was totally different, because, firstly, it took out one plant and one plant only. And the interesting thing about that, contrary to
[00:16:26.190]Steve Kay: What a lot of people thought
[00:16:28.980]Steve Kay: The pack is set up in the four weeks after the whole confine the weekly kills. I know the numbers, precisely in front of me, but I know for that they were all larger than year ago.
[00:16:40.500]Steve Kay: What happened in the futures market was turned extremely negative which impacted cash live cattle prices and I wrote and catalyze wiki, the time that the reaction was totally unjustified.
[00:16:54.240]Steve Kay: And it was regrettable that the futures market dragged down the cash market as much as it did, but it began to recover this time round.
[00:17:06.300]Steve Kay: And I'm sure you know, and all the people listening knows that the biggest issue for beef processes as well as for poor processes and chicken processes is that
[00:17:20.010]Steve Kay: The parents the emergence of cases of covert 19 illnesses at plants forced them to close down at least temporarily
[00:17:33.030]Steve Kay: The big longest closure is about two weeks and toggles Skyler plan is, is it 40 808 a day is currently the only beef plan that is closed. Hopefully it will reopen next Monday.
[00:17:48.990]Steve Kay: So that that forced closures, but it did more than that which the Packers have grappled with for a month or so.
[00:17:59.940]Steve Kay: It forced
[00:18:02.400]Steve Kay: Fearful employees stay at home.
[00:18:06.960]Steve Kay: And quarantine, in a sense, but it poor increases, you know, extraordinary increases in absenteeism.
[00:18:17.010]Steve Kay: Related to fears about from workers of contracting the owners of they went back to work. And that's perfectly understandable, but the, the result was that
[00:18:30.720]Steve Kay: You know, we went. We went from, you know, just a regular weekly killed to
[00:18:38.100]Steve Kay: You know, April plummeted April 25 to 460 5000 cattle that was 64% of capacity new thought can't get any lower than that will, lo and behold,
[00:18:50.160]Steve Kay: May to was an estimated 425 and I didn't have time to check the actual this morning, but it was probably around that that's it's only 58% of capacity.
[00:19:00.630]Steve Kay: And that that is what's caused the backlog and feedlots to to mount up to a record rate.
[00:19:11.430]Steve Kay: You know this week. Fortunately, and last week and this week it's beginning to ease because packing plants are ramping up a bit more Tyson's Dakota city plan.
[00:19:22.050]Steve Kay: Which was closed for a week or so started operation that was critically important for Nebraska cattle feed is Elliot, because right they have a 7008 a day as I found the largest beef plant in the world.
[00:19:37.230]Steve Kay: So, you know, we might get up to 500,000 again this week. So it's hopeful signs, but we're a long way from
[00:19:45.990]Steve Kay: Where we're long, long, long way from getting back to normal levels. It might. It might be not until late this year early next year, even
[00:19:55.110]ELLIOTT DENNIS: So do you think a lot of this.
[00:19:56.340]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Stuff is going to be fixed with more shifts from the packing plans or or what's kind of your thoughts and maybe when we should start seeing I
[00:20:05.250]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Hate to say normal
[00:20:06.960]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Tracking utilization. Well, I can increase it.
[00:20:09.000]Steve Kay: They can increase the Saturday shifts a little bit. And that's what they've done.
[00:20:12.840]Steve Kay: You know, increase the numbers because the Saturday kills have stayed. We're not shifts, but the kills, they could expand the kills might run a single 10 hour shift and set of Asia, but the the day to day, which, you know, was running it 120 plus
[00:20:33.840]Steve Kay: Is is, you know, only it was back up to 91 yesterday. So we're, we're a ways away. The only resolution is for those absentee workers to be
[00:20:47.370]Steve Kay: Satisfied that their, you know, their health and wellness is is not at risk, and only then will they return in and we will start seeing full staff. And again, even then.
[00:21:00.360]Steve Kay: The change speeds will be slower than normal because of social distancing in the plants. The, the workstations may have Plexiglas between each one of them, but
[00:21:11.880]Steve Kay: You know, there are the maybe the same number of workers in the plans, but the chain speed because of covert related restrictions or limitations will mean change speed will be low for some considerable time yeah that's
[00:21:27.960]ELLIOTT DENNIS: That's probably certain right so our
[00:21:31.440]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Ability to, I guess, water, all these animals, potentially, we kind of have a lower the full realization of utilization and
[00:21:42.000]Steve Kay: But right
[00:21:42.600]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Let's talk about
[00:21:43.620]ELLIOTT DENNIS: You know that
[00:21:44.310]ELLIOTT DENNIS: The slaughter a little bit is it's not really evenly distributed when we're talking about differences in federal inspected.
[00:21:52.350]ELLIOTT DENNIS: swatter you mentioned some of those numbers, we're really seeing differences on the type of cattle being slaughtered take us are a little bit on why those the why those differences matter and maybe some implications on what this looks like for the industry as a whole, moving forward.
[00:22:11.010]Steve Kay: I can't see the slow time have a slaughter is up. I take it on your slide.
[00:22:17.370]Steve Kay: It's a, it's
[00:22:18.720]ELLIOTT DENNIS: down quite a bit.
[00:22:20.490]Steve Kay: down quite a bit. Well, I mean, I did stay on here for slaughter is is
[00:22:25.320]Steve Kay: You know we we
[00:22:29.160]Steve Kay: Were able to get the numbers again.
[00:22:32.550]Steve Kay: By the end of the week. And this is estimated we were we were down 670 6000 head total sort on a year ago. And when you
[00:22:45.510]Steve Kay: beef and dairy cows total was up.
[00:22:49.980]Steve Kay: 13 15,000 head.
[00:22:53.160]Steve Kay: You know, we've
[00:22:55.110]Steve Kay: We've seen a reduction of Stephen have a store for like 690,000 agents. It's more than the total reduction.
[00:23:03.840]ELLIOTT DENNIS: So how does that compare, you know, as we're looking at kind of dairy cow slaughter that seems to be pretty constant well above the five year average but beef cow swatters a little bit
[00:23:13.770]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Little bit down. How does it maybe imply for where these cattle are that are outside the feedlots and and what does that look like for the industry.
[00:23:23.460]Steve Kay: Well you know what, I'll be watching very closely, is that, you know, we've had a modest increase in beef cow slaughter. So some people were beginning to
[00:23:31.170]Steve Kay: To reduce their herd slightly a and I fear that we may see an acceleration of beef cow slaughter and as the year goes on as people make decisions based on whether the markets going to recover rapidly or spin going to be a little long, slow grind well into next year.
[00:23:52.020]ELLIOTT DENNIS: So as we're trying to
[00:23:53.310]ELLIOTT DENNIS: You know, you kind of mentioned this earlier with kind of the packing plant closures and needing to work through some of this cattle what's kind of your thoughts on
[00:24:01.530]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Maybe one steer half for slaughter might pick up again and when do you think we're going to work through you know this.
[00:24:07.740]Steve Kay: You know this backlog and the supply chain.
[00:24:12.450]Steve Kay: Oh, that's the $64 question.
[00:24:16.380]Steve Kay: I don't think we're going to work through the backlog.
[00:24:21.060]Steve Kay: Possibly. Most of the backlog. By the end of the year. But then, as I mentioned earlier regarding the placement patents will then see another wave of
[00:24:31.590]Steve Kay: Of market ready can begin to emerge from, you know, mid January on and you know that may it may take several more months to work our way through that.
[00:24:45.810]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Yeah so reduce kind of placements here, potentially potential issues with demand moving forward.
[00:24:53.250]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Um, this is a this is a chart that's been kind of circulating around
[00:24:59.100]ELLIOTT DENNIS: It's gotten a lot of press and media.
[00:25:02.010]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Maybe take us through this chart I use Nebraska combined auction numbers 456 weights.
[00:25:09.540]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Really what it's showing here through time starting in January. Monthly. Monthly prices.
[00:25:17.760]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Pretty consistent margins spiking during the drought and then as we move forward to the right.
[00:25:25.980]ELLIOTT DENNIS: cash prices have seemed to come down a little bit. While wholesale and retail prices. If we continue to rise me maybe talk about, you know, are we facing a margin issue here and in the cattle industry and
[00:25:38.400]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Maybe take us through some of your thoughts on some of these price spreads that we're seeing right now.
[00:25:46.230]Steve Kay: It's an excellent job. I mean, it shows it shows that when we had our
[00:25:51.840]Steve Kay: You know, Ty just supplies of cattle feed the cattle and and fed cow. That's, that's when we saw record prices and pack. Imagine suffered. Now the almost the reverse is true.
[00:26:03.420]Steve Kay: Not because of sheer cattle numbers, but because of the unique circumstances unprecedented circumstances I mentioned and
[00:26:13.680]Steve Kay: You know, I don't know how quickly it will right itself it all. It really depends on two factors. I think it depends on
[00:26:24.210]Steve Kay: The
[00:26:26.340]Steve Kay: Higher levels of sphere and half of slaughter and then and then placements and it depends on as you touched on the beef demand, you know, the pack is the package ran the wholesale beef cutouts out
[00:26:41.700]Steve Kay: labels that you could never have imagined and I fear that that that we, you know, the whole industry is going to pay a price for that because retailers have to raise everyday prices feet to be flat and that will over the next several months over the summer see a reduction in
[00:27:01.050]Steve Kay: A reduction in
[00:27:02.910]Steve Kay: Retail sales. Now, I think it's significant that Tyson finally began to recognize this. And yesterday said that they're going to lower their prices. Their wholesale prices.
[00:27:16.500]Steve Kay: I think by as much as 20 to 30% on on various products, I think, such as ground beef and some some
[00:27:25.980]Steve Kay: Various
[00:27:28.020]Steve Kay: Beef cuts and other products. So that's a step in the right direction of getting some
[00:27:35.310]Steve Kay: You know, some sense back into the wholesale beef market.
[00:27:39.450]Steve Kay: So is that
[00:27:40.140]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Something that they're doing to
[00:27:41.310]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Be kind of generous. Or is that kind of market motivated. Is that a PR related issue. What's, what's kind of your feel on that.
[00:27:50.370]Steve Kay: Possibly, all of the above. I suspect that they have come under such heat from their customers are saying these prices are outrageous. You know, we just can't. You can't fathom why you've you've, you know, taken advantage of us.
[00:28:06.120]Steve Kay: And so it's part of the PR as well. They probably aware that there might be, you know, a lot of congressional inquiries ahead.
[00:28:15.420]Steve Kay: You know the comprehensive cut out last week went from $304 28 the weekend. My first last week to $391 and 33 cents and that's
[00:28:28.710]Steve Kay: You know, it's not reprehensible. But that's, you know, that's, that's, that's pretty much unacceptable. I think people realize that finally
[00:28:37.170]Steve Kay: You know, I wish this just a personal opinion. I, I wish the Packers like three or four weeks ago had set of floor price for live cattle and had
[00:28:46.920]Steve Kay: State and informal upper limits on on what they'd sell them before across the board, but that didn't happen. You know, the market is the market. But, you know, in a perfect world, that's what I think they should have done.
[00:28:59.580]Steve Kay: So it's not really signaling demand you
[00:29:01.530]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Know, as we're talking about demand moving forward that what's potentially retail prices. How does that look like demand. How does, how do these margins can affect what demand domestic demand and and potentially export demand might look like moving forward.
[00:29:27.420]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Are you with this Steve.
[00:29:49.260]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Not sure where Steve went
[00:29:54.120]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Steve.
[00:30:01.980]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Of walk through some of these slides a little bit that Steve was going to go through and if Steve come back comes back online. I think we'll kind of address this. This is a
[00:30:11.760]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Some of the issues that the industry has been facing it's been, you know, it's natural. We're trying to look for solutions. This is one solution that has been put out by cattle facts.
[00:30:23.490]ELLIOTT DENNIS: This is the quit their deeming what the set aside program is. And essentially, it's a way that we can work through all the cattle that was potentially on, you know, in the market right now.
[00:30:36.930]ELLIOTT DENNIS: There. This is a program that's been pretty similar to what Canada. Canada was doing
[00:30:44.370]ELLIOTT DENNIS: The big issue here is that as we try to mandate, how much fed or slaughter that can be
[00:30:51.240]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Put in within a 75 day window, really, we're trying to figure out who's going to pay these costs and so I kind of put that from cattle facts.
[00:30:59.760]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Proposal that they put around, see the additional feed and operating costs incurred or are to be roughly offset by program payments, the
[00:31:08.550]ELLIOTT DENNIS: real question here is who is going to pay this difference. So is that going to be the government is I can I be packers, is it going to be some sort of cost sharing issue.
[00:31:17.910]ELLIOTT DENNIS: These are some of the issues or some of the proposals that they were kind of putting through
[00:31:23.400]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Monday through Friday moving forward. We're going to have to potentially said if this program are put into place. We're going to have to put in potentially some limb or some quota limits on where we're going to be
[00:31:38.370]ELLIOTT DENNIS: On squatter capacity.
[00:31:41.640]ELLIOTT DENNIS: This isn't going to be potentially apps like just random this water capacity and that's where they were talking about forming an advisory committee which would potentially kind of set
[00:31:52.770]ELLIOTT DENNIS: What this water rate would be this says pretty important implications somewhat may be controversial for talking about controlled planning system.
[00:32:01.890]ELLIOTT DENNIS: And how this might affect some of the economic incentives here. I think the real question that as an industry, we need to talk about and potentially discusses
[00:32:12.810]ELLIOTT DENNIS: What does this look like for who's paying this costs and also what precedent, does it send set for the industry moving forward. If we have similar issues related to Kobe is
[00:32:24.210]ELLIOTT DENNIS: This this committee stay moving, moving forward, is it something that's happened for a period of time, but just something for the industry to think through
[00:32:34.620]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Not only does it solve this problem. But what's its implications for us moving forward and does it affect the market system, which seems to be, you know, you know, barring the situations that it tends to work work well and provide economic incentives for people
[00:32:51.030]ELLIOTT DENNIS: So this isn't another thing that's recently come about. It's actually happened just yesterday on
[00:32:58.350]ELLIOTT DENNIS: The Senate bill proposed.
[00:33:01.980]ELLIOTT DENNIS: This is a proposal. It's not passed, but it's been circulating around
[00:33:06.480]ELLIOTT DENNIS: But it's essentially trying to amend the agricultural marketing act of 1946 and the purpose of that was to try and have efficient markets.
[00:33:18.030]ELLIOTT DENNIS: And to really provide competition. And so I provided a link here for for you guys if afterwards when we post the slides.
[00:33:26.850]ELLIOTT DENNIS: You can go ahead and click that link, click the link if you're interested in reading the full details on that. I just kind of
[00:33:34.320]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Pull it out what I thought was kind of the major point here, which was essentially going back to some of the conversation that we've been having in the in the past with the industry about slaughter being
[00:33:46.680]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Potentially concerned about thinly traded cash markets.
[00:33:51.810]ELLIOTT DENNIS: And really what they're talking about is really mandating potentially 50 no less than 50% of quantity that a packing plant would use would be
[00:34:05.280]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Would have to be pure through the spot market.
[00:34:09.030]ELLIOTT DENNIS: This is has pretty pretty important implications when we're talking about what this looks like for cash markets and also formula pricing.
[00:34:19.560]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Just kind of in history, you know, when formidable pricing grid pricing started to come some into play. This was all economic incentive Lee based so producers feel like the head better cattle.
[00:34:32.550]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Then they're getting paid on on the live live basis saw this particular shift happened in the text at home region.
[00:34:40.050]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Were a lot of producers really shifted away from from a negotiated negotiated price and went to more formula pricing.
[00:34:49.560]ELLIOTT DENNIS: I put up here that Nebraska. What this Nebraska looks like. So the blue line negotiated the DOD. The dotted black line no negotiated grid red line, the formal pricing and
[00:35:01.470]ELLIOTT DENNIS: And the green line for contract, really, what you see is pretty consistent cash trade, but you'll see towards the end of, you know, 2019 really starting to see a peak.
[00:35:14.070]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Really where that's coming from is the whole come fire as people started to feel like they maybe they weren't getting the cash price that they wanted they switched him or formula based
[00:35:25.440]ELLIOTT DENNIS: And really when we go to the, the, the figure down below, really, is what we're considering is this negotiated trade, as you know, as we talked about a lot is, it's been pretty consistent.
[00:35:39.630]ELLIOTT DENNIS: In between the 20 and 30% range. Now obviously huge differences here between where we're at. If we look at the text Homer region. We're talking like 10% cash trade pretty thin
[00:35:53.730]ELLIOTT DENNIS: And there's been some even concerns there with whether we meet mandatory price reporting. A lot of the times with
[00:36:00.810]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Some of those prices, not being reported just because they don't meet confidentiality agreement. So there's even if this bill were to pass when we're talking about 50% may solve some of those
[00:36:12.900]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Some of those spot market reporting issues, but then we have to think about efficiencies in the market is this going to impact us and our ability to prick your cattle moving forward. Does this mean we have discounted prices.
[00:36:28.380]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Once again, I think a lot of these proposals are trying to solve potential issues related to coven 19 but I think long term.
[00:36:37.710]ELLIOTT DENNIS: In the industry, you have to think about what, what is this impact for us moving forward. And how does this potentially impact or distort the the market situation that we have moving forward.
[00:36:51.960]ELLIOTT DENNIS: So that's I guess what Steve and I were going to go talk about I saw I've seen a couple questions and answers kind of come through. I've been trying to pose those to Steve as as he's been going
[00:37:08.670]ELLIOTT DENNIS: What what questions do you guys have potentially. Are there any issues that potentially a Steve or I could handle and I'll, I'll reach out to Steve LOOKS LIKE WE LOST HIS LAST his audio here but
[00:37:21.480]ELLIOTT DENNIS: And will provide kind of responses to these questions that Steve, I might have, what, what questions to do you guys have about issues that you're facing or questions that you might feel like you, you'd like answered.
[00:37:42.570]ELLIOTT DENNIS: So I saw john Gibbons kind of talk about demand increases as long as packing plants can ship packaged products to retail
[00:37:53.430]ELLIOTT DENNIS: We're talking. This is an interesting situation as we're talking about demand.
[00:37:58.620]ELLIOTT DENNIS: A lot of people are trying to scratch their heads and think about what it what is demand look like moving forward.
[00:38:07.170]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Some of the issues that they're trying to think about is, okay, we haven't pretty strong dollar still so the exchange rate is making it difficult to potentially ship products abroad.
[00:38:17.790]ELLIOTT DENNIS: We also potentially have a short pie of products here and so on. We're talking about demand that the real question people are concerned about is whether the economy is going to go into recession. What we know is that
[00:38:31.710]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Beef demand in particular, more so than than other industries or other meat products.
[00:38:39.450]ELLIOTT DENNIS: As really has to do with how sensitive consumers are two to their income. So as people get less money.
[00:38:48.930]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Or their incomes go down beef is more adversely affected, then let's say pork or chicken people actually consume those more or less likely to shift away from those when their income goes down. So when we're talking about a a demand potentially a recession moving forward.
[00:39:07.980]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Due to people not being able to work and reduce incomes beef demand domestically is is most likely to decrease. If we see that happen.
[00:39:17.490]ELLIOTT DENNIS: It doesn't. And it's important to note that this hasn't always been the case. So moving forward, or in the past and like the 1980s and 1990s.
[00:39:27.930]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Before it's actually pretty robust to these types of downturns in the economy. But as we've kind of gone through time we've seen it actually be more and more what we call price sensitive
[00:39:42.690]ELLIOTT DENNIS: So a
[00:39:44.760]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Galen Erickson as well the economic downturn impact meet demand. So hopefully kind of answered that a little bit that
[00:39:55.590]ELLIOTT DENNIS: As demand kind of decreases or as the economy goes down beef demand generally decreases, which may provide some incentive for kind of cleaning up some of the, the issues with packing plants.
[00:40:13.500]ELLIOTT DENNIS: I think one of the things that as I was talking with Steve about
[00:40:18.030]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Kind of in preparation for this was really talking about some of the CDC guidelines that are being implemented in packing plants.
[00:40:27.720]ELLIOTT DENNIS: A lot of you know about the physical distancing measures the testing and potentially some of the difficulties and absenteeism, I think we all know that pretty well.
[00:40:38.970]ELLIOTT DENNIS: But what Steve and I were talking about is that these measures, potentially have long term implications on potential capacity.
[00:40:47.790]ELLIOTT DENNIS: So if prior to
[00:40:50.790]ELLIOTT DENNIS: We are operating at 100% capacity. Just, just hypothetically.
[00:40:57.180]ELLIOTT DENNIS: And all of a sudden we had Coby
[00:41:00.930]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Now the implement these social distancing issues or physical distancing issues in the packing plant, they have to run a little chain speeds to accommodate that because people can't be as close to them close to each other.
[00:41:15.060]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Our overall potential long term capacity is probably reduced and packing plans, but when Steve and I were talking about this and he was going to try to mention is
[00:41:27.990]ELLIOTT DENNIS: If we were 100% before coven 19 probably going back, assuming normal that the CDC guidelines saying to place we're probably at 85
[00:41:38.820]ELLIOTT DENNIS: To 90% of what we were prior to Kobe 19 capacity capacity wise and that has nothing to do really with hooks base and has everything to do with the physical distancing important implications that the CDC have implemented in and packing planted have adopted.
[00:42:01.380]ELLIOTT DENNIS: That's kind of where we're at. Steve and I were kind of talking about what this what this means, long term for the industry.
[00:42:10.200]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Yes packers might come back or workers might come back to work, but
[00:42:15.690]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Even if they were to everyone word is show up, we would probably still be below where we were pretty Copa
[00:42:24.600]ELLIOTT DENNIS: And maybe you want to just to go through what other. What other questions you might have.
[00:42:38.880]ELLIOTT DENNIS: So one of the issues that I guess.
[00:42:42.780]ELLIOTT DENNIS: As I've been talking to some producers and and with people around the industry has been kind of the
[00:42:49.020]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Kind of this sub portion of risk management that's really been kind of this need to manage a aggressively manage risk a little bit more in the industry.
[00:43:03.840]ELLIOTT DENNIS: As kind of talked with some producers.
[00:43:07.440]ELLIOTT DENNIS: You know, some of them are caught out a little bit empty with some of their cattle warhead. Some of them weren't which is, you know, which is the marketing strategy that they had implemented and
[00:43:18.990]ELLIOTT DENNIS: I think that's okay, I think, just as we take a a view on where we're at in our marketing plan where what our what's our strategy. What's our game plan moving forward.
[00:43:31.140]ELLIOTT DENNIS: I just really encourage people to think about, you know, where we're at in our marketing plan. Are we just taking the cash and just kind of recognizing kind of where we're at and that
[00:43:44.610]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Why don't see any, any other questions that we can
[00:43:49.500]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Pretend potentially answer, like I said, I'll have
[00:43:53.520]ELLIOTT DENNIS: This, this will be kind of loaded up and we'll have
[00:43:59.460]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Our Steve to answer some of those questions, you can see Steve's answer the questions that you put in as well.
[00:44:10.440]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Any other thoughts. Okay, well, we appreciate everyone kind of being here. Um, this is kind of the end of our webinar. We just want to let you
[00:44:19.080]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Stay. Thanks, Steve. If he was on here. I am sure he'd appreciate Steve does a great job. If you haven't seen Steve's work. I always appreciate talking to him.
[00:44:29.670]ELLIOTT DENNIS: And
[00:44:31.080]ELLIOTT DENNIS: I
[00:44:31.410]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Just want to thank him for coming and for all of you.
[00:44:33.690]ELLIOTT DENNIS: For joining us
[00:44:37.530]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Steve, are you with us.
[00:44:40.170]Steve Kay: Yes I am, can you unmute me yeah we hear you. Actually, we're just going to
[00:44:45.330]Steve Kay: I am I am so sorry I you know my my telephone system just just abruptly came to hold, and I apologize to everybody and you. I don't know whether you want to go through any of the other slides again. I can't believe what happened.
[00:45:00.780]Steve Kay: Here and so I am back but it's entirely up to you. Okay, let's
[00:45:08.730]Steve Kay: If you want
[00:45:09.360]ELLIOTT DENNIS: One, we just talked about, you know, I kind of went through a little bit of this set aside program but if you'd like to talk about it a little bit more, more than more than happy to have you talked about it.
[00:45:20.880]Steve Kay: Right, well you know I
[00:45:24.420]Steve Kay: I commend badness based very much on the Canadian model as you probably know, and said, and forgive me if I'm going to repeat drinks. You already said but
[00:45:34.650]Steve Kay: You know it worked. It worked well in Canada, and it was, you know, in the aftermath of their, their first BSE takes Alias, and it was funded
[00:45:44.130]Steve Kay: By both the Canadian federal government and by the provinces of Alberta a substantial and and Manitoba. The three major
[00:45:54.090]Steve Kay: Cattle feeding provinces in central Western Canada Quebec had its own program and they all work quite well for Quebec is my Canadian friends. So always go their own way.
[00:46:04.740]Steve Kay: And this this this suggestion by the major you know group of major channel fees representing. Did you say 25% of total seating capacity.
[00:46:16.350]Steve Kay: Is also very commendable, they're looking. They're looking for the government probably serve USDA or Pepsi or funded and you know basically
[00:46:29.550]Steve Kay: I mean I'm just started the story and kind of was reaching for the next Monday's issue.
[00:46:35.640]Steve Kay: Which says you know who's, who's this year in June might be 100,000 hit lows and last year and show that record backlog of market ready capital.
[00:46:46.650]Steve Kay: I mentioned earlier will extend into July. So I wrote you know the importance of starting a genocide programs a feedlot cattle shins even more pressing is each week passes. I don't, I don't think we have another week to spam. So that's my thoughts on it.
[00:47:02.670]Steve Kay: So that's
[00:47:03.240]ELLIOTT DENNIS: One of the industry proposal, this kind of being floated around as mentioned some similarities to Canada. Let's maybe talk about so I I briefly went through some of these, the difference between Nebraskan and the national different pricing.
[00:47:20.940]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Talk through a little bit about the bill, but maybe give us some of your thoughts on this bill, talking about mandatory quantities of spot private market sales. Take us through about
[00:47:32.310]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Right there.
[00:47:33.660]ELLIOTT DENNIS: This bill has any efficacy and
[00:47:35.910]ELLIOTT DENNIS: What's its implications on the market and industry as a whole.
[00:47:40.380]Steve Kay: Well, I don't think the bill has any efficacy
[00:47:44.160]Steve Kay: Primarily because it would, you know, it's stopping number when we never going to go back to more than a certain percentage of cattle sold on the cash market. I
[00:47:55.380]Steve Kay: You know, I'm sure many people would like it to be 60% and that's possibly attainable, but not voluntarily Elliot. And that's, you know, some groups.
[00:48:08.160]Steve Kay: But not not national Calvin speaks Association, and there was a paper put out by Dr. Steven Koontz as you may know from Colorado State University that
[00:48:19.440]Steve Kay: Talked about 30% but he then was very clear to say I'm not recommending it
[00:48:26.010]Steve Kay: And you know NCAA just a couple of days ago, I think it was yesterday. You know, today, but they were really opposed to the stand up till that would require 50% of the capital on the cash market be delivered within 14 days.
[00:48:42.480]Steve Kay: You know, the, the scenes. I mean TBA pins long a post any government mandate that restricts marketing options.
[00:48:51.090]Steve Kay: And, you know, they say in a panel produces currently utilize a multitude of methods to market their livestock and they don't want that to change.
[00:49:00.120]Steve Kay: You know, the key point here is that feel, we moved and I don't have the numbers right in front of me but
[00:49:06.840]Steve Kay: I think it was last time was in 2013 when we had a majority of of cattle sold on the cash markets and then it switched after that.
[00:49:16.980]Steve Kay: To mall formula castle and probably 65% to 20 you know the cash market did get down to slightly dangerous lows. A few years ago, Elliot know with lots of calls then for action and nothing really happens it crept up 25 26% again.
[00:49:38.400]Steve Kay: current circumstances a path to extraordinary to say that, you know, anything else but it happened because of lack of demand for cattle, but
[00:49:47.970]Steve Kay: You know, the point is that cattle feeding themselves wanted to sell on formula. It's not the Packers forced them to do that. So you got to keep that in mind.
[00:49:59.940]ELLIOTT DENNIS: So kind of
[00:50:00.840]ELLIOTT DENNIS: As we wrap up this any, any questions for for Steve and in general and monitoring. Some of the chat and the q AMP a box here.
[00:50:10.890]Steve Kay: You and again I apologize for the interruption. Yeah, I'm glad to be back things happen and and we're
[00:50:18.570]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Just glad to have you on on the webinar today. Steve, some of the questions that that I kind of addressed a little bit on
[00:50:27.630]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Was was more about demand. I kind of walk through some of my thoughts on demand. Tell us a little bit about your thoughts on demand, both export and domestic and
[00:50:37.500]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Are we kind of in trouble moving
[00:50:39.060]Steve Kay: Forward.
[00:50:40.050]ELLIOTT DENNIS: With either of those.
[00:50:42.930]Steve Kay: Well, you know, surprisingly,
[00:50:46.470]Steve Kay: We only have beef exports for the first quarter, you know, including obviously much and the match export numbers were. They were remarkably good I mean they were you know up 7% this is this is through us, me, if not us J or the government but you know being exploited that was
[00:51:10.740]Steve Kay: Both exports of cats and byproducts Alice's. What can we put up 7% from a year ago and up 4% in value and the highest monthly value, since the previous July. So you could say.
[00:51:26.910]Steve Kay: You know it's startling. I mean, exports driven by solid growth in Japan because we're benefiting from the much reduced terrorists. They're from 38 and a half percent down to 22 something and they they went down. It's important to remember they went down.
[00:51:44.130]Steve Kay: It stopped her year but then on April one, they took another died down. So we're very compared to flee Australian another beef going into into Japan, South Korea and Mexico, Canada and Taiwan or stepped up.
[00:51:59.070]Steve Kay: So they beat export value they had a fit slaughter and match was over $308,308 per head that's that's pretty good considering that was a demand erosion and those export markets on one level, because obviously because of the food service impact, but
[00:52:24.150]Steve Kay: It seems you know in the app for the last month or so has been saying that
[00:52:28.560]Steve Kay: extraordinary, extraordinary year the food service sectors in Asia and elsewhere took took exceptional measures to try and counter the stay at home orders in those countries and
[00:52:41.280]Steve Kay: Probably
[00:52:43.410]Steve Kay: Probably acted early at and then the food service sector in this country, as far as domestic demand is concerned, as I said earlier, and you know i'm i'm concerned going forward about two things about the high price of beef.
[00:52:59.850]Steve Kay: In the retail store.
[00:53:02.580]Steve Kay: You know, restaurants, is another whole picture.
[00:53:06.120]Steve Kay: But, you know, April, the April fresh beef price was $6 and 22 cents a pound Elliot, and that was up from 596 yeah just the month before the choice price was $6 and 44 cents up from 605 and both those both those prices those April prices are up six to 7% year on year
[00:53:33.030]Steve Kay: I mean, it might not seem like much but you know they likely in May will be up another six or 7% and you know I think consumers are going to go into the grocery store and say oh boy that their beef. I love to buy beef, but it's too expensive to buy it and the quantity or
[00:53:52.830]Steve Kay: Continuity that I did. I used to do back you know last year and leading up into this year when beef to mine was fantastic, and beef was flying off the shelves for normal demand reasons.
[00:54:08.430]Steve Kay: So,
[00:54:10.560]Steve Kay: The share price rises one concern the double whammy is that it's going to occur as we go.
[00:54:19.170]Steve Kay: Further into recession and I was reading an even just in the Wall Street Journal this morning people
[00:54:24.600]Steve Kay: Up now talking about instead of a you know a V recession. In other words, hitting the bottom and bouncing back up that will have a double double
[00:54:33.630]Steve Kay: W recession w. So wouldn't, which means that we have our site recovery. Then we go back into a second recession. So we have a
[00:54:42.570]Steve Kay: DOUBLE DIP RECESSION and you know that that could last well into next year. So, you know, basically what I mean, stating the obvious what has to happen is that wholesale beef prices have to come down.
[00:54:57.030]Steve Kay: 60 $75 very quickly to enable retailers to freak your beef with, you know, a not raised the price anymore because retail
[00:55:07.650]Steve Kay: Margin have been totally wiped out.
[00:55:10.590]ELLIOTT DENNIS: As probably especially important as
[00:55:12.060]ELLIOTT DENNIS: We go into the kind of the grilling.
[00:55:13.440]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Season potentially summer.
[00:55:15.390]Steve Kay: Like Vlad lifted maybe 50
[00:55:17.880]ELLIOTT DENNIS: people wanting to go out and
[00:55:19.770]Steve Kay: And grill a little bit more
[00:55:22.560]Steve Kay: Right, right.
[00:55:24.810]Steve Kay: Yeah, I mean, there are implications. So a grilling season and actually was with some relaxation of social distancing, you know, small groups be able to get together, you know,
[00:55:35.400]Steve Kay: Family and friends. But you know, I know, I know plenty of people like I've got a friends or just a couple of man and wife and Kansas City and
[00:55:47.370]Steve Kay: You know they normally invite four or five friends over for growing on Memorial Day or each weekend and
[00:55:54.120]Steve Kay: As my friend said, you know, we buy a lot more beast, and we would for ourselves. So this is still social distancing and in the like in many communities that were to happen, so we will see fewer beef sales than we normally would see now.
[00:56:12.570]Steve Kay: The reverse side is that, you know, may
[00:56:16.350]Steve Kay: The memorial day weekend weekend Elliot is the largest beef sales.
[00:56:22.860]Steve Kay: week of the year.
[00:56:25.560]Steve Kay: In both volume and value and that may
[00:56:30.180]Steve Kay: It'll be interesting to see whether we come close to that this year compared to last year because retail might be up but food service will still be way, way, way down. You know, it's going to be tricky slow for food service to to come back to any extent.
[00:56:46.950]Steve Kay: You know that the relaxation spoke for restaurants is is happening in parts of the country, as you know, but
[00:56:54.540]Steve Kay: Quite frankly, I didn't think that a lot of Americans will be wanting to venture out to restaurants until they feel you're quite a bit safer. Yeah.
[00:57:05.880]Steve Kay: Who
[00:57:06.810]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Thinks diva. We kind of appreciate a lot of your comments today I wanted to just provide this service that they are just make producers aware of this service that that the University of Nebraska Department of Agricultural Economics
[00:57:25.230]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Has the service provided where we can provide some farm and ranch analysis cash flow projections and really we're talking about looking at certain situations on and help you if we want some help with marketing.
[00:57:39.330]ELLIOTT DENNIS: I work on the livestock side Corey Walters works on the green side. So if you have a mixed operation that's fine as well. If you have any interest in that, feel free to contact us.
[00:57:50.400]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Also want to make you aware of our next, we still have a weekly webinars that will continue to be hosted
[00:57:57.450]ELLIOTT DENNIS: The next webinar will be next Thursday at noon, and it's going to be called managing behavioral health, a key to farming and ranching in the era of coven 19 and
[00:58:06.720]ELLIOTT DENNIS: We're going to be pleased to have Dr. Christine K sick and Dr. Michael roseman if you want to know more about that are pre register for that. Feel free to go to farm.us l.edu that's f AR m.us l.edu
[00:58:23.820]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Well, thanks, Steve. We really appreciate you coming for everyone joining us and we're glad we had to back and
[00:58:29.340]Steve Kay: I'm
[00:58:29.670]ELLIOTT DENNIS: I know everyone is preceded
[00:58:32.490]Steve Kay: By
[00:58:32.700]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Technology happens and we're just
[00:58:34.110]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Glad that we're glad to have you here.
[00:58:36.720]Steve Kay: Thanks for doing this time to get back and thank you very much for filling in for me. So like good moments I think about it and I just have a final comment to all participants out there.
[00:58:49.860]Steve Kay: You know this this
[00:58:53.160]Steve Kay: USP industry is is remarkably resilient and and
[00:58:58.470]Steve Kay: You know, it will come through this. This is the greatest crisis in the history of the industry.
[00:59:03.390]Steve Kay: You know I product to market for 33 years and I could never envisioned anything like this happening, we will get back to some semblance of normality is that any solace, we don't quite know when it will be. We hope it will be sooner rather than later. But I think people should
[00:59:22.710]Steve Kay: You know, not get ahead of themselves. I think it might be next summer before we see something more normal Elliot
[00:59:31.110]ELLIOTT DENNIS: Thanks to you. I really appreciate thoughts, make
[00:59:33.300]ELLIOTT DENNIS: it some time to be here and thanks everyone for joining us and we'll see you here, next week on this coven 19 farm management series. Have a great day everyone.
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